Hougang Spring - Demise of the PAP

[Fook Seng]

heheh... truth to be told, bro, the eastern side of Singapore is going to be very colorful in the next GE, can't say the same for the western end thou'

We always acknowledge that the east is soft but the west is tough. But why? If we can find the reason, maybe we can do something about it.

 

[zhihau]

We always acknowledge that the east is soft but the west is tough. But why? If we can find the reason, maybe we can do something about it.

if me would hazard a guess, the median age of the electorate in the east would be higher than the median age of the voters in the west. Jurong, CCK, Bukit Panjang are considered relatively new towns compared to those like matured estates like Bedok, Telok Kurau, Katong, Kallang, Aljunied. Pasir Ris is considered relatively new in this sense and Punggol & Sengkang are like brand new.

assuming the median age of the electorate of the east to be 50 years old: the older folks thou' had bear witness to the transformation of Singapore, they too have seen the dire straits that the common folks are in. for the males, those folks in their 50s and 40s are the ones feeling the full brunt of the impact caused by the FTs. those in their 30s gets caught in transition stage, some starting a family and finds it tough to get a flat; and 20s just started out in the society not too long ago, 不够熟。

for the female, the elderly are immensely grateful to the PAP for the things the PAP had done in the past, taught their daughters that the lightning is good. but as more females comes out into the society to work, they too will start to feel the strain, just to note, females have higher tolerance for pain. without their NS obligations, bro JW5 and myself thought that some 7 in 10 females would have been voting for the PAP.

as of the west, assuming the median age to be 40 years old: the number of folks facing the brunt of the FTs would be less noticeable, as more of these folks are grateful that they've got a roof over their heads. so the support for the incumbent would hit higher range of 35%-40%. thus not that difficult to woo another 10% - 20% of the votes coming from the moderate voters.

 

[ChaoPappyPoodle]

The art of retaining and dictating power is

Control of MSM, HDB, PA, Election dept and the police
Introduction of GRC with elasticity for stretching and springing
Coupled with juicy carrot and pricky stick
And most importantly...the Fear Factor which comes in many forms
Singapore will collapse if PAP is voted out or the famous one...your mother and sisters will become maids in foreign countries
In politics, there is no right or wrong....it is the art of convincing people to believe what they do is right and what you think is wrong
Like increase the tax to help the poor.....$1000 can own a HDB flat...etc
There is nothing wrong with Singapore politics....it is the 60% that is wrong in Singapore politics

Add (1) grossly overpaying the civil service and GLC minions. We are one of the smallest countries in the world but with a budget for the civil service that'll beat countries 10 times our size. Even if one argued that those countries may be underpaying, ours is certainly overpaid. This is one way the PAPzis reward their dogs. It is not sustainable that the civil service doing relatively an easy job should be paid so highly.

THe judiciary should also be independent of parliament. And all fascist and communist political parties should be banned.

 

[jw5]

for the female, the elderly are immensely grateful to the PAP for the things the PAP had done in the past, taught their daughters that the lightning is good. but as more females comes out into the society to work, they too will start to feel the strain, just to note, females have higher tolerance for pain. without their NS obligations, bro JW5 and myself thought that some 7 in 10 females would have been voting for the PAP.

hypothesis - 7 in 10 females vote for the pap, 5 in 10 males votes for the pap, assuming voting population of males and females roughly equal,
= 6 in 10 vote for the pap.

 

[Heart Break Kid]

for the female, the elderly are immensely grateful to the PAP for the things the PAP had done in the past, taught their daughters that the lightning is good. but as more females comes out into the society to work, they too will start to feel the strain, just to note, females have higher tolerance for pain. without their NS obligations, bro JW5 and myself thought that some 7 in 10 females would have been voting for the PAP.

hypothesis - 7 in 10 females vote for the pap, 5 in 10 males votes for the pap, assuming voting population of males and females roughly equal, = 6 in 10 vote for the pap.

Women Charter is one of the crucial factor in your analysis of 7 in 10 females

 

[Fook Seng]

if me would hazard a guess, the median age of the electorate in the east would be higher than the median age of the voters in the west. Jurong, CCK, Bukit Panjang are considered relatively new towns compared to those like matured estates like Bedok, Telok Kurau, Katong, Kallang, Aljunied. Pasir Ris is considered relatively new in this sense and Punggol & Sengkang are like brand new.

assuming the median age of the electorate of the east to be 50 years old: the older folks thou' had bear witness to the transformation of Singapore, they too have seen the dire straits that the common folks are in. for the males, those folks in their 50s and 40s are the ones feeling the full brunt of the impact caused by the FTs. those in their 30s gets caught in transition stage, some starting a family and finds it tough to get a flat; and 20s just started out in the society not too long ago, 不够熟。

for the female. without their NS obligations, bro JW5 and myself thought that some 7 in 10 females would have been voting for the PAP.

as of the west, assuming the median age to be 40 years old: the number of folks facing the brunt of the FTs would be less noticeable, as more of these folks are grateful that they've got a roof over their heads. so the support for the incumbent would hit higher range of 35%-40%. thus not that difficult to woo another 10% - 20% of the votes coming from the moderate voters.

Your thinking on the circumstances of different age groups merits strong consideration.

As for females, I, too, agree that they tend to vote for status quo, being more docile and passive by nature in addition to not having to do NS.

By the same token, new citizens, not having to do NS, will tend to lean towards the PAP. Oversea voters, normally older voters, who do not suffer the same adverse environment as in-country voters will also lean towards the ruling party. A notable example is our forum host who is really enjoying good life in his adopted country. So is one forummer in California.

No wonder, the ruling party is keen to encourage people to work aboard but at the same time bring in FTs who are not required to do NS.

Any suggestions as to how to counter such intrinsic disadvantages?

Younger voters are more savvy in the internet and the new media. That could be one battle field. It is easier attacking a bad policy then defending one. On the hand, it is difficult to extol a good policy. More OPPIB here?

For females, need to work on programmes to promote the family as they tend to put the family above everything else.

As for demographics, it is very difficult to change it. Any other ideas?

 

[Fook Seng]

hypothesis - 7 in 10 females vote for the pap, 5 in 10 males votes for the pap, assuming voting population of males and females roughly equal,
= 6 in 10 vote for the pap.

Your broad assumption is probably very true.

 

[zhihau]

Your thinking on the circumstances of different age groups merits strong consideration.

me isn't saying that the folks in their 20s all threw their votes to the PAP, there's always a bell curve to look at in each of the stratum. would also be good to have a breakdown of the number of females in the civil service

 

[Fook Seng]

me isn't saying that the folks in their 20s all threw their votes to the PAP, there's always a bell curve to look at in each of the stratum. would also be good to have a breakdown of the number of females in the civil service

I guess more females than males, 60:40? Many males would have left after a few years.

 

[zhihau]

I guess more females than males, 60:40? Many males would have left after a few years.

folks in MINDEF considered civil servants? me know that there are a lot of teachers whom are female.
the clerks at the various ministries?

 

[Fook Seng]

folks in MINDEF considered civil servants? me know that there are a lot of teachers whom are female.
the clerks at the various ministries?

Do you include NS men?

 

[zhihau]

Do you include NS men?

those ROD already not civil servants, talking about the tarn jiak peng :o:o:o

 

[Fook Seng]

those ROD already not civil servants, talking about the tarn jiak peng :o:o:o

If you are talking about political orientation, NSmen still in service should not be counted as civil servants but regulars should. There are not many though on the combat side. In the ministry, should be no different from the other civil services.

 

[zhihau]

In the ministry, should be no different from the other civil services.

in that case, me think the females outnumber the males in the civil service :p:p:p

 

[QXD]

Next election will see the introduction of 10-man GRCs. PAP Hardliners introduce a slew of young, impressionable (i.e.- subservient) dogs worse than the likes of TPL or newly minted and PAP-beholden citizens to maintain their spheres of influence within party to forward their "wealth at any cost" agenda.

Introduction of electronic voting. Electoral fraud on a nationwide scale played down by 154th to be "inconsequential" technical issues. PAP wins historic landslide, 80% of votes. LHL declares it better then heavens mandate.

WP will be forced to consolidate its roster of viable candidates. Aljunied and Hougang retained. All other opposition parties either do not have the finances to run or lose deposits. PAP wins with 90% representation in parliament.

Democracy is dead. Long live the FamiLEE.

 

[Fook Seng]

in that case, me think the females outnumber the males in the civil service :p:p:p

I think so also. Civil servants are typically pro-PAP.

 

[Liquigas]

I think so also. Civil servants are typically pro-PAP.

Not only civil servants but members of uniformed group (SAF, Police, SCDF, Nursing), staff of statutory boards (LTA, URA..etc) and employees of government-linked companies (SingTel, SIA, DBS ..etc). These people account for at least 30% of the voters.

The Singapore public service employs some 130,000 staff in 15 ministries and more than 50 statutory boards.

 

[tanwahp]

I was hoping to catch up with some arguments on those against the WP, but looks like they all disappeared immediately after the BE. SKPonggol and even Bryan Ti on Facebook vanished around the same time. The coincidental timing is interesting. Either they were bruised on their faces of their egos with the intact victory of WP or served a certain purpose and whose duties were over.

 

[Kinana]

Houganag was originally with WP. How can it be any spring?

 

[GoldenDragon]

I think so also. Civil servants are typically pro-PAP.

Out of 10, 9 will vote MIW. Out of the 9 voting MIW, 3-5 will kpkb in private but LL vote the 'right' way. The FEAR factor is one reason. Other reason being the perceived benefits of voting for the politically correct party. That's the hard truth. I know. I was there before. Civil servants scared of their own shadows. Self fear.