The Oil Price That Matters Now Is $50 a Barrel, Not $100
The price of crude is more likely to decline than increase in the foreseeable future.
October 2, 2024 at 5:05 PM GMT+8
By
Javier Blas
Javier Blas is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities. He is coauthor of “The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources.”
Oil is more likely to trade nearer $50 a barrel than $100 for the foreseeable future.
Photographer: Sefa Ozel/E+/Getty Images
Save
Translate
When thinking about oil, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+, the fabled $100-a-barrel target isn’t relevant any more. In truth, it hasn’t been since June, when the cartel’s announcement of a plan to boost production effectively signaled it was
abandoning its quest for triple-digit prices. Now, the reference value that matters is $50 a barrel.
First, a spoiler alert. I’m not about to predict whether that new lower level will materialize, other than warning that it’s far more possible than the market seems to think
1. Instead, a general observation: All things being equal
2, the oil market looks oversupplied in 2025, and that means lower rather than higher prices — so given a binary choice between $100 and $50 for next year, I’d take the latter bet despite all the Middle