Gold Posts Longest Rally Since 2011, Defying Goldman View

[krafty]

yesterday, kanna stopped...:(

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...rly-rise-as-investors-assess-u-s-economy.html


Gold posted a second straight quarterly advance, the first back-to-back gains since 2011, as increasing demand for a haven drove a surprise 2014 rally.

The dollar reached a one-month low today versus the euro as a gauge of U.S. business activity fell more than forecast. The manufacturing data overshadowed a report showing gains for the housing market. Bullion rose 3 percent since the end of March.

Prices climbed 10 percent this year, outpacing gains for indexes of commodities, equities and Treasuries. The rebound defied bearish predictions from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA, who expected last year’s slump to continue. Instead, escalating violence in Iraq and tension between Ukraine and Russia has boosted demand for a geopolitical hedge, while the Federal Reserve has said that interest rates will stay low for a “considerable time.”

“Some people are moving into safe-haven investments as they are getting mixed signals from the economy,” George Gero, a vice president and precious-metals strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said in a telephone interview. “The weak dollar is also providing support.”

Gold futures for August delivery rose 0.2 percent to settle at $1,322 an ounce at 1:43 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices touched $1,330.40, the highest for a most-active contract since April 14.

Bullion jumped 6.1 percent this month. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities rose 1.4 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities gained 1.7 percent, and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index slid 0.2 percent.

Gold climbed 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the Fed bought debt and cut borrowing costs.

ETP Holdings

Investors haven’t been swayed to increase holdings even with this year’s gains. Assets in exchanged-traded products backed by bullion fell to 1,712.9 tons on June 20, the lowest since October 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The metal plunged 28 percent last year, the most in three decades, wiping more than $73 billion from the value of the funds.

“Gold’s recent gains are unlikely to last over the longer term,” Barclays Plc said today in a report. “If and when geopolitical tensions ease, we continue to expect gold to return to its downward trajectory.”

Goldman Forecast

Volatility in futures is near a four-year low, at a time when trading volumes and open interest in Comex contracts are waning. Prices will drop to $1,050 in 12 months, Goldman analysts reiterated in a June 23 report, unchanged from their outlook at the start of the year.

Shipments into India, the world’s second-biggest consumer, probably plunged 77 percent in the first half as government restrictions to contain a record current-account deficit increased costs and deterred buyers, according to the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation.

The slowdown in physical buying will pressure prices, according to Tommy Capalbo, a broker at Newedge Group in New York.

Silver futures for September delivery fell 0.4 percent to $21.056 an ounce on the Comex. Prices rose 6.6 percent since March, extending last quarter’s 2 percent rally.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at [email protected] Patrick McKiernan

 

[frenchbriefs]

[video=youtube;nqpxAh-DlGU]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqpxAh-DlGU[/video]

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

They always tell people to buy, while they sell and vice-versa

 

[krafty]

i saw from sunday times, it's still going down, that's why i short but...but...

They always tell people to buy, while they sell and vice-versa

 

[lifeafter41]

i saw from sunday times, it's still going down, that's why i short but...but...

I believe its going to pull back a little before resuming its uptrend.
Anyway, come to think of it, what I believe doesn't count.

 

[krafty]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-3-month-high-as-spdr-to-economy-weighed.html

Gold Futures Rises to 14-Week High as Dollar Declines

Gold futures rose to a 14-week high as the dollar’s decline boosted demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment. Platinum climbed to the costliest since September on supply concerns, topping $1,500 an ounce.

The greenback touched a seven-week low against a basket of 10 currencies as the Institute for Supply Management said that its factory index was little changed in June from May. Gold advanced 3 percent in the second quarter as the dollar fell 1.2 percent.

This year, gold has climbed 10 percent as escalating violence in Iraq and Ukraine boosted demand for the metal as a haven. The Federal Reserve has said that U.S. interest rates will stay low for a “considerable time.”

“The dollar weakness is helping gold stay supported at the current levels,” Mike Dragosits, a senior commodity strategist at TD Securities in Toronto, said in a telephone interview. “Economic data will determine how dovish the Fed remains, and that will guide gold.”

On the Comex in New York, gold futures for August delivery rose 0.3 percent to settle at $1,326.60 an ounce at 1:50 p.m. Earlier, the price reached $1,334.90, the highest for a most-active contract since March 24. Yesterday, the metal capped a consecutive quarterly advance for the first time since 2011.

Yesterday, global holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold increased 0.4 percent to 1,722.4 metric tons, the highest since June 2, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bond Purchases

The Fed’s bond purchases have been reduced to $35 billion a month from $85 billion in 2013. Gold climbed 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as the central bank bought debt and held borrowing costs near zero percent to bolster the economy.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum futures for October delivery jumped 2.2 percent to $1,515. Earlier, the price reached $1,516.70, the highest since Sept. 4.

The market faces a “sizable” deficit in 2014 after a five-month strike by 70,000 miners in South Africa crippled output, Citigroup Inc. has said.

The nation is the largest producer of the metal. On June 26, companies reported as many as 90 percent of workers returned to their job after a labor settlement on June 24.

“There is a lot of concern that it will take very long to normalize production,” Dragosits of TD Securities said.

Palladium futures for September delivery gained 1.4 percent to $854.60 an ounce. The price climbed for the seventh straight session, the longest rally since March 7. Russia is the top producer, followed by South Africa.

Silver futures for September delivery rose 0.3 percent to $21.117 an ounce on the Comex. Earlier, the price reached $21.275, the highest since March 17.

To contact the reporters on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at [email protected]; Agnieszka Troszkiewicz in London at [email protected]

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at [email protected] Patrick McKiernan

 

[SNTCK]

gold and silver still have any upside?
i intend to buy phsycial gold bar and silver bar to keep.

my friends keep ask me to join them to buy.

any view ?

 

[krafty]

gold price will still go down...taking into consideration, that the tapering buying bonds has been cut down signalling US economy is improving.

gold and silver still have any upside?
i intend to buy phsycial gold bar and silver bar to keep.

my friends keep ask me to join them to buy.

any view ?

 

[krafty]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-01/gold-investor-index-falls-to-4-year-low-on-selling.html

Gold Investor Index Falls to 4-Year Low on Selling

 

[Runifyouhaveto]

gold and silver still have any upside?
i intend to buy phsycial gold bar and silver bar to keep.

my friends keep ask me to join them to buy.

any view ?

Investing in gold/silver depends on 2 things.

1. Timing depends on your judgement, this is something u can control.

2. Try not to buy physical gold/silver in Singapore, unless you are dealing with UOB. There is poor liquidity when you try to take profit (sell/offload).



there are many place to buy physical gold
- UOB (bestest in my opinion)
- middlemen - less transparent trading practices

UOB is the most reliable and they have been in this business for years. I heard stories of UOB physical gold being snatched up by investors from China and Indonesia on several occasions in the recent years.

Some reminders: always keep the receipts. Now many middlemen or UOB will only buy back from you if you produce past-receipts, some will charge you maximum buy-sell spread when you offload to them if you cannot produce past-receipts. In my earlier example, $100 is $100 to DBS or OCBC but bear in mind physical gold is not valued like money, an ounce from A is not the same as an ounce from B.

Physical gold market is not liquid unless you are dealing with UOB and sometimes the spreads are ridiculous with middlemen.
SPDR ETF and gold saving accounts from UOB or BOC usually incurs some small costs for maintaining the account.
Leveraged Paper gold financial products such as futures, options, CFDs incurs large time-decay costs and not suitable for long-term investors.





Your friends asked you to join in and buy, but they never tell you that the exit options for physicals are limited.

 

[krafty]

i learnt something again today...many thks...bro:o

Investing in gold/silver depends on 2 things.

1. Timing depends on your judgement, this is something u can control.

2. Try not to buy physical gold/silver in Singapore, unless you are dealing with UOB. There is poor liquidity when you try to take profit (sell/offload).



there are many place to buy physical gold
- UOB (bestest in my opinion)
- middlemen - less transparent trading practices

UOB is the most reliable and they have been in this business for years. I heard stories of UOB physical gold being snatched up by investors from China and Indonesia on several occasions in the recent years.

Some reminders: always keep the receipts. Now many middlemen or UOB will only buy back from you if you produce past-receipts, some will charge you maximum buy-sell spread when you offload to them if you cannot produce past-receipts. In my earlier example, $100 is $100 to DBS or OCBC but bear in mind physical gold is not valued like money, an ounce from A is not the same as an ounce from B.

Physical gold market is not liquid unless you are dealing with UOB and sometimes the spreads are ridiculous with middlemen.
SPDR ETF and gold saving accounts from UOB or BOC usually incurs some small costs for maintaining the account.
Leveraged Paper gold financial products such as futures, options, CFDs incurs large time-decay costs and not suitable for long-term investors.





Your friends asked you to join in and buy, but they never tell you that the exit options for physicals are limited.

 

[rushifa666]

the big banks are anti gold. get that and you will understand

 

[krafty]

why they dislike gold? gold is a sacred kind of ornament, thousands of years, human is known to build things with gold, include statues for worshipping. long term consideration, like it or not, it will still be around...

the big banks are anti gold. get that and you will understand

 

[Unbeatable]

i saw from sunday times, it's still going down, that's why i short but...but...

Believing them is like believing a pig can fly, the disclaimer never mentioned, "trade at your own risk?"

 

[krafty]

ya, should have spent time looking at sumiko's article instead...:p

i hope to advise her by analysing her self inflicted women problem...

Believing them is like believing a pig can fly, the disclaimer never mentioned, "trade at your own risk?"

 

[frenchbriefs]

timing is the reason why u will fail,if u think u can time the market u and 90% of other speculators are sorely mistaken.....not to mention timing the gold market which doesnt have any direction at all and is only a good indicator of fear....but how can u predict the market will be fearful again?and if u can predict,how can u time ur trades to make sure u buy before the market gets fearful and sell at the peak of its fear?

timing is the reason most traders perform way below market....not only is their timing bad,the cost of commisions and bid ask spreads and turnover of their portfolio will cost them a hefty percentage of their returns.....

does gold have any intrinsic growth value?no it has only one price the market price which is what the market thinks its worth,if u buy and hold a investment grade corporate bond for the next 10 years which has a yield of 5% interest p.a and 100% par value at the end of 10 years....u would have ur capital back 100% at the end of 10 years plus a roi of about 60 to 70% compounded assuming u reinvest the coupons.....if u buy and hold gold for 10 years what makes u think u can sell ur gold at a higher price at the end of 10 years?the stock market could do very well and gold prices might continue sinking,u might not even recover ur initial investment!!!

 

[krafty]

it bottoms to the words belief and superstition..., india and china are biggest consumers, if the ang mos want to bash the gold prices, i believe there will be chaos...

timing is the reason why u will fail,if u think u can time the market u and 90% of other speculators are sorely mistaken.....not to mention timing the gold market which doesnt have any direction at all and is only a good indicator of fear....but how can u predict the market will be fearful again?and if u can predict,how can u time ur trades to make sure u buy before the market gets fearful and sell at the peak of its fear?

timing is the reason most traders perform way below market....not only is their timing bad,the cost of commisions and bid ask spreads and turnover of their portfolio will cost them a hefty percentage of their returns.....

does gold have any intrinsic growth value?no it has only one price the market price which is what the market thinks its worth,if u buy and hold a investment grade corporate bond for the next 10 years which has a yield of 5% interest p.a and 100% par value at the end of 10 years....u would have ur capital back 100% at the end of 10 years plus a roi of about 60 to 70% compounded assuming u reinvest the coupons.....if u buy and hold gold for 10 years what makes u think u can sell ur gold at a higher price at the end of 10 years?the stock market could do very well and gold prices might continue sinking,u might not even recover ur initial investment!!!