GE2025: Reading between the electoral battle lines as much an art as science
Tham Yuen-C
The EBRC’s recommendations will see boundaries redrawn in 22 out of the current 31 constituencies.PHOTO: ST FILE
Mar 12, 2025
SINGAPORE – Before every general election, there seems to always be dissatisfaction over how the battle lines are drawn.
It was no different on March 11 after the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC)
released its latest recommendations on boundary changes. Within hours of the report being made public, it had provoked reactions from various quarters.
The Workers’ Party noted the
significant changes to areas where it had been walking the ground for the last few years, while the Progress Singapore Party asked if the committee could have accounted for population shifts without making drastic changes.
The angst is understandable. Judging from past elections, the committee’s work can have a significant impact on the upcoming polls.
Past committees have redrawn boundaries, chopped and changed entire constituencies, wiped them off the map, and also created new ones, resulting in more seats in Parliament.
This time around, the EBRC’s recommendations, which Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has already accepted, will see boundaries redrawn in 22 out of the current 31 constituencies.
Some constituencies will disappear – Bukit Batok, MacPherson, Yuhua, Hong Kah North and Punggol West SMCs – while others have been recast comprehensively, such as the current Jurong, West Coast, East Coast and Marine Parade GRCs.
New ones were also formed, like Punggol GRC, among others.
Just five group representation constituencies and four single-member constituencies remain unchanged from the last election.
While these changes may be of little significance to ordinary Singaporeans, for politicians, they can determine whether they will have a seat at the next opening of Parliament.
For one thing, the shifts, whether marginal or major, can change the voter profile and affect an MP’s electoral machinery. This means a candidate will have to cultivate the ground all over again, often with a different team and much less time to do so.
For another, improvements an MP has spent time pushing for can also end up in somebody else’s turf. Whether for the incumbent or the newcomer, the upshot is that it can be hard work down the drain.
Given the implications, one question that often comes up is how the lines are drawn.
The usual practice for some five decades has been for the committee to publish a report, in the form of a White Paper, which sets out the terms of reference that it was given as well as the range of electors per MP that it relied on to draw up boundaries.
But in a departure from this brevity, the committee this time around provided its rationale for some of the main recommendations, though it did not delve into the details for every change.
First, it explained that some of the revisions were necessary due to population changes.
With new housing developments and therefore an infusion of residents in Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC, Sembawang GRC and Tampines GRC, and Hong Kah North SMC, the constituencies had seen a significant growth in the number of electors.
While the committee did not provide the lower and upper limits for the number of electors for each constituency, based on the current number of 93 parliamentary seats and 2,753,226 electors, and an allowable variation of 30 per cent, each SMC should range from about 20,700 to about 38,500.
By these limits, Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC and Hong Kah North SMC would have busted their ideal size.
Sembawang GRC and Tampines GRC had also seen significant growth in the number of electors, the committee said.
Pasir Ris-Punggol was thus cut up, with the Punggol estates carved out to merge with Punggol West SMC to form a new four-member Punggol GRC.
Meanwhile, parts of Hong Kah North were subsumed into Chua Chu Kang GRC, while parts of Sembawang and Tampines GRCs were carved out to form two new SMCs.
With population changes an ongoing process, electoral maps rightfully need to be updated to reflect them.
In these areas, where it is the numbers that have necessitated the changes, the drawing of the boundaries comes down to more of a science, and even the most cynical politician is likely to agree that there is little room for gerrymandering.
Where there will likely be more contention, though, is in the second category of changes, which the committee described as consequential changes due to changes to adjacent boundaries.
For instance, the creation of the new Punggol GRC cascaded down to changes in East Coast GRC as well as Marine Parade GRC.
Based on the committee’s recommendations, parts of Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC will be merged with adjacent polling districts from East Coast GRC to form a new four-member Pasir Ris-Changi GRC.
Meanwhile, East Coast GRC will take in adjacent polling districts from Marine Parade GRC, and Marine Parade GRC will absorb polling districts from Potong Pasir SMC, Mountbatten SMC as well as the entire MacPherson SMC to remain as a five-member GRC.
Likewise, the changes in Hong Kah North SMC also had knock-on effects on Jurong GRC and West Coast GRC.
With Jurong GRC having to absorb parts of Hong Kah North SMC, the GRC has been mostly carved up, with parts of it in a new Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC, and other parts merged with the adjacent West Coast GRC, renamed West Coast-Jurong West GRC.
As a consequence, parts of the existing West Coast GRC had to be carved out to merge with Radin Mas SMC so that the new West Coast-Jurong West GRC remains a five-member constituency.
That West Coast, East Coast and Marine Parade were among the most hotly contested constituencies in the last election has sparked some allegations that the changes were due to political considerations.
Based on the committee’s recommendations, these constituencies will see changes in at least 25 per cent of its voters, granted West Coast GRC has been reincarnated as the new West Coast-Jurong West GRC, and Marine Parade GRC has had its name changed to Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC.
With the winning margins in the last election between 1.7 per cent and 7.7 per cent of all votes in these three constituencies, these changes can therefore have a significant impact.
But to the accusations of gerrymandering, Jurong GRC perhaps provides the counterfactual, since it has been the best-performing constituency for several elections.
For these consequential revisions that flow from the changes in neighbouring constituencies, the committee will no doubt have more leeway to exercise its discretion while taking into consideration the terms of reference and various factors, and the redrawing can be said to be more an art than a science.
After all, there are probably other ways to accommodate the adjacent shifts.
Therefore, in this first electoral boundaries report under PM Wong, it is notable that there is greater elaboration on the committee’s thinking, which will go some way towards building a more well-informed electorate – and squelch some of the more extreme conspiracy theories.
Ultimately, the effect of boundary changes has an element of unpredictability. What is clear, however, is that from today, the battle lines are drawn, and the race is on to win the hearts of voters.