http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/685c3d90-ca3b-11de-a3a3-00144feabdc0.html
Downturn could spread from Singapore’s ships to shore
By Kevin Brown and Paul Betts
Published: November 5 2009 19:07 | Last updated: November 5 2009 19:07
Anyone wondering why Singapore has remained calm and prosperous while its economy gyrates wildly should raise their eyes from the streets and look offshore.
Singapore has suffered its worst recession since it gained independence in 1965. The economy contracted by 10 percentage points in the four quarters to March, but has recovered most of that in the six months to September. Packed bars and heaving restaurants appeared to give the lie to the numbers, even after allowing for a fiscal stimulus amounting to about 6 per cent of GDP. Offshore though, hundreds of ships lie at anchor, some of them part of the estimated 10 per cent of the world container fleet idled due to lack of business.
The number of containers going through Singapore’s port is down about 15 per cent this year, which will be hurting hauliers and brokers as well as shipping lines.
Now half the banks that used to provide finance for shipping companies have pulled out of the market. It could get worse: hundreds of new ships are on order, many unfinanced. That could help push the proportion of idle box ships as high as 20 per cent next year.
No wonder, then, that the trend rate of growth in the city state is likely to shift downwards to somewhere below 5 per cent over the next decade, as Tharman Shanmugaratnam, finance minister, told the Financial Times the other day.
Downturn could spread from Singapore’s ships to shore
By Kevin Brown and Paul Betts
Published: November 5 2009 19:07 | Last updated: November 5 2009 19:07
Anyone wondering why Singapore has remained calm and prosperous while its economy gyrates wildly should raise their eyes from the streets and look offshore.
Singapore has suffered its worst recession since it gained independence in 1965. The economy contracted by 10 percentage points in the four quarters to March, but has recovered most of that in the six months to September. Packed bars and heaving restaurants appeared to give the lie to the numbers, even after allowing for a fiscal stimulus amounting to about 6 per cent of GDP. Offshore though, hundreds of ships lie at anchor, some of them part of the estimated 10 per cent of the world container fleet idled due to lack of business.
The number of containers going through Singapore’s port is down about 15 per cent this year, which will be hurting hauliers and brokers as well as shipping lines.
Now half the banks that used to provide finance for shipping companies have pulled out of the market. It could get worse: hundreds of new ships are on order, many unfinanced. That could help push the proportion of idle box ships as high as 20 per cent next year.
No wonder, then, that the trend rate of growth in the city state is likely to shift downwards to somewhere below 5 per cent over the next decade, as Tharman Shanmugaratnam, finance minister, told the Financial Times the other day.
