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Electoral Boundaries out liao

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Alfrescian
Loyal
ST GRAPHICS
http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/pdf/20110128/290111i2.pdf
A LOOK BACK AT PAST BOUNDARY CHANGES
http://www.straitstimes.com/STI/STIMEDIA/pdf/20110128/290111i3.pdf

Could this be the new electoral map?
As voters await the release of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee's report, Insight speculates on the possible boundary changes based on population shifts and housing developments in the past five years, terms of reference for the committee and discussions with politicians and pundits.
By Zakir Hussain, Political Correspondent and Andrea Ong

IT HAS been three months since the Prime Minister convened the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee on Oct 31 last year to set out new electoral divisions.

There has been much speculation on the ground over how the electoral map will be redrawn.

The work of the panel, which is typically made up of five civil servants chaired by the Cabinet Secretary, is shrouded in secrecy and has in the past taken up to seven months to complete. The current Cabinet Secretary is Mr Tan Kee Yong.

This time round, part of its terms of reference was made public by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in Parliament when he announced proposed changes to the political system in 2009.

'There will be at least 12 single-member constituencies (SMCs), fewer six-member group representation constituencies (GRCs) and a range of smaller GRCs,' he said.

Under the law, there must be a minimum of eight SMCs and a GRC can have three to six MPs.

Within these limits, Mr Lee added, the committee has the flexibility to work out the sizes and configurations of constituencies to match the population distribution.

Currently, there are nine GRCs with five members and five GRCs with six members, and nine SMCs.

Mr Lee did not think six-member GRCs would be ruled out entirely 'because sometimes the configuration of constituencies on the ground makes this the most practical option'.

But he said the average size of GRCs should not exceed five. It is currently 5.4.

Going by one calculation, this means that if, say, the majority of GRCs have five MPs and there are two six-member GRCs, there will have to be at least three four-member GRCs to bring the average to five or less.

Insight decided to find out what boundary changes might be in the offing based on the following considerations:

# Examine the new population shifts and housing developments in existing constituencies since the 2006 General Election to see where the 150,000 new voters are distributed over the island.

As of February last year, there are 2,311,582 voters, representing a 7 per cent increase from the 2,157,840 in 2006.

These two factors have been cited in past boundary reports as part of the committee's terms of reference.

# Engage MPs, activists and observers in discussions on how the electoral boundaries might be reconfigured.

# Take into account PM Lee's response on the subject to Hougang MP and Workers' Party chief Low Thia Khiang in Parliament two years ago. Mr Low had asked for the existing electorates in their respective constituencies to be retained as much as possible.

Mr Lee replied that how the boundaries were drawn was up to the committee, adding: 'They do not disturb boundaries unnecessarily but when the population has changed, boundaries have to recognise these electorate changes.'

Political observer and former Nominated MP Zulkifli Baharudin believes changes this time round will be based on such objective criteria as population shifts, new housing estates and changing ethnic compositions of constituencies.

Hong Kah GRC MP Ang Mong Seng says that with the new terms of reference, MPs are expecting more changes to boundaries in the coming polls compared to the last revision in 2006, which saw few major changes.

So what are the possible boundary changes?

SMCs likely to be retained

GOING by these considerations, Insight expects 12 SMCs to be put forward and that of the existing nine, five will be retained: Bukit Panjang, Hougang, Joo Chiat, MacPherson and Potong Pasir.

Here's why. In the last two redrawing exercises in 2001 and 2006, most of the SMCs were retained.

In 2001, Boon Lay, Bukit Gombak and Kampong Glam were absorbed into neighbouring GRCs, while Bukit Timah, Joo Chiat and Nee Soon East were formed.

In 2006, Ayer Rajah and Bukit Timah became part of GRCs while Bukit Panjang and Yio Chu Kang were formed.

Given this pattern, Insight believes more than half of the existing SMCs will stay largely the same.

Certainly, population size and the location of the SMC matter.

Assuming the number of MPs remains the same - 84, the overall increase in the electorate works out to an average of 27,500 voters to a seat.

Allowing a 30 per cent variation, the number of electors to each MP could range from 19,000 to 36,000.

Only Potong Pasir SMC's 17,170 electors fall below this range, but the ward is not likely to be redrawn. This is because its boundaries, like those of the other opposition-held seat Hougang (24,163 electors), have not shifted in the past few exercises.

One can only deduce that by not tinkering with their boundaries, the People's Action Party (PAP) Government wants to be seen to be fair. Imagine the reaction if they were swallowed into a GRC.

According to MPs and observers, Bukit Panjang (32,376 electors), MacPherson (22,074 electors) and Joo Chiat (22,613 electors) are expected to remain as SMCs as the areas within their boundaries have much in common - Bukit Panjang and MacPherson are largely made up of HDB flats, while Joo Chiat is almost entirely made up of private housing.

But they think that Chua Chu Kang (26,760 electors) may be absorbed into neighbouring Hong Kah GRC, and Yio Chu Kang (26,711 electors) into neighbouring Ang Mo Kio GRC.

Both seats are seen as being part of the housing estates in the surrounding GRCs. Both comprise many older blocks and would thus be better off linked to newer developments.

There is much talk that Nee Soon East, whose 35,789 electors are close to busting the upper limit, could be grouped with neighbouring Nee Soon Central (25,135 electors) and parts of Ang Mo Kio and Sembawang GRCs to form a new four-MP GRC.

Indeed, Ang Mo Kio GRC MP Lee Bee Wah, who looks after Nee Soon South, says speculation about a new Nee Soon GRC has been making the rounds in coffee shops.

As observers note, such a GRC will be more compact, taking in all of Yishun and Sembawang HDB estates, as well as accommodating their expanding populations.

Seven new SMCs in the offing?

IF FIVE of the existing SMCs are to be retained, this means that seven new SMCs will have to be formed. Where will they come from?

The obvious answer is that they will have to be carved out from existing six-MP and five-MP GRCs with a disproportionate number of voters.

Insight's best bets: Braddell Heights, Boon Lay, Hong Kah North, Sembawang East, Sengkang, Punggol West and Punggol South.

Here is our rationale: In Marine Parade GRC, Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong has asked the MPs of three wards at the GRC's edges to prepare for the possibility of being hived off as single seats: Braddell Heights, Kaki Bukit and Mountbatten.

# Braddell Heights

Braddell Heights, which disappeared ahead of the 1997 General Election, appears to be a likely single seat, given its location and distance from the sea. Many voters have complained that they feel no affinity for Marine Parade.

# Boon Lay

In the west, Boon Lay, which covers the large and expanding Jurong West housing estate, is seen as a good candidate for an SMC. It was absorbed into West Coast GRC before the 2001 General Election, but with new HDB estates in the Boon Lay and Pioneer areas, the GRC now ranks among the largest five-MP ones. Its electorate has shot up from 137,685 in 2006 to 150,723 today.

# Hong Kah North

Hong Kah North, which is adjacent to Boon Lay, is another possible SMC, as it and neighbouring Nanyang ward are geographically distant from the rapidly expanding Hong Kah GRC and Chua Chu Kang.

The GRC's electorate grew significantly to 156,614, up from 144,609 in 2006, and is now the largest among the five-man GRCs.

The increase in numbers led West Coast GRC MP Ho Geok Choo, who oversees Boon Lay ward, to suggest that 'the entire western area poses quite interesting possibilities for reconfiguration'.

National Solidarity Party secretary-general Goh Meng Seng speculates that more SMCs could be created in the west to strike a balance with the east and central areas, which now contain seven of the nine SMCs. The west has only two.

# Sembawang East

In the north, Sembawang GRC MP Lim Wee Kiak expects significant boundary changes as the GRC is one of the largest, with 198,460 electors, up from 184,752 in 2006.

Dr Lim's Canberra ward is on its eastern fringe and home to several new housing developments, sparking speculation that it could be siphoned off as Sembawang East SMC.

# Sengkang

In Ang Mo Kio GRC, the outlying Sengkang West ward helmed by MP Lam Pin Min is also tipped to be a new SMC. It is geographically separate from the rest of the GRC, which covers Ang Mo Kio new town, and has also seen its resident population grow by one-third, or 10,000, since 2006.

# Punggol West & Punggol South

The westernmost sections of the six-seat Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC are also viewed as possible SMCs, as they account for a sizeable part of the increase in its electorate to 200,985, from 178,393 five years ago.

Now the constituency with the largest electorate, it is also perilously close to busting the upper limit of electors in a six-man GRC.

A new Punggol West SMC could be in the offing, while a Punggol South SMC could also be formed in the area currently helmed by MP Teo Ser Luck.

Both are at the fringes of Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC, and could have 25,000 to 30,000 voters each.

In the case of Punggol West, the area has seen a rapidly expanding population with thousands of new households moving in over the past five years.

Hiving off Punggol South would also keep the population of the main GRC at about 140,000, manageable for a five-MP slate.

New Nee Soon GRC?

AS FOR GRCs, Insight takes the view that four of the five six-MP GRCs will be redrawn, with several wards taken out as SMCs.

The seven possible new SMCs would result in two GRCs with four MPs. Hong Kah will be smaller in size, while there will be a new Nee Soon GRC.

To accommodate this new configuration, the committee could recommend that a total of 86 MPs be returned.

In the west, the currently heavily populated Hong Kah GRC would have absorbed Chua Chu Kang SMC, but lost Hong Kah North.

The neighbourhood buzz is that much of its existing Nanyang ward - which is closer to Hong Kah North and West Coast GRC's Pioneer ward - could form part of West Coast GRC.

As Mr Ang, who looks after the Bukit Gombak ward, puts it: 'Chua Chu Kang, Yew Tee, Keat Hong and Bukit Gombak are quite linked to one another. Nanyang is more distant from the main Hong Kah area, so there's market talk that it may go.'

The north could see the other four-MP GRC: Nee Soon, formed by joining the existing Nee Soon Central and Nee Soon East SMCs with Sembawang GRC's Chong Pang ward and Ang Mo Kio GRC's Nee Soon South ward.

This has been described as a more logical and natural delineation of areas in Yishun new town, which will enable residents to identify better with their constituency.

Consequently, over-populated Sembawang GRC would shrink from a six-MP to a five-MP GRC, after Canberra and Chong Pang wards are hived off. The GRC currently has 198,460 electors, so even after 50,000 to 60,000 are moved out, 140,000 electors would be best represented by a five-MP slate.

Likewise, Ang Mo Kio could go from a six-MP to a five-MP GRC, with Nee Soon South and Sengkang West hived off and Yio Chu Kang rejoining the GRC.

Marine Parade, too, is likely to be a five-MP GRC with Braddell Heights out.

Pasir Ris-Punggol, which now has slightly more voters than Sembawang, will also likely become a five-MP GRC even after Punggol South and part of a bursting Punggol Central are carved out, the latter as Punggol West SMC. This is because the projected remaining electorate of about 140,000 would still need to be served by five MPs.

Some GRCs left intact

SO WHAT will happen to the other eight GRCs? By Insight's reckoning, they will remain largely unchanged.

Never mind that some of them, such as Aljunied GRC and East Coast GRC, were closely watched seats in the 2006 election because they were contested by two strong Workers' Party teams.

MPs note that ahead of the last election, some of the significant boundary changes to GRCs were in the east while those in the west were largely unaffected. This time round, they predict that GRCs in the east will largely stay the same. There may, at most, be minor shifts of a cluster of blocks or two from one GRC to the next.

For one thing, the size of their electorates has not increased by as much as in other areas, as there are far fewer new public housing projects springing up in the east.

Another reason, says Mr Zulkifli, could be that Singaporeans are sensitive to any moves on the part of the PAP Government that could be perceived as unfair.

He believes that this plays a part in how people vote, and so it is in the Government's interest to dispel perceptions that the redrawing of boundaries is unfair.

Besides, he adds: 'Casting votes is not just about the future but about the past performance of their MPs.'

GRCs such as Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, Jurong GRC and Tampines GRC are already drawn more tightly around one or two HDB housing estates, while Holland-Bukit Timah GRC, Jalan Besar GRC and Tanjong Pagar GRC have retained their contours in the past few elections. Tanjong Pagar could remain the sole six-MP GRC.

The size of their electorates has also increased slightly, but not by very much. They fall within the prescribed ranges.

And although Jalan Besar GRC's voter pool is on the lower side, many of them are older and poorer, and may well need a lower ratio of voters to MPs.

Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC MP Charles Chong, who was first elected in 1988, notes that there has been a shift towards more rational constituency boundaries in recent exercises, and hopes this trend continues.

There is little reason to think this will change with the new boundaries report.

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