( How accurate are these predictions.?...let us wait and see )
------------------------------
Earthquake Predictions.
This site predicts quakes 30 days in advance.
http://www.nextearthquake.com /earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#longterm
The ability to forecast large earthquakes, greater than M6.0, more accurately and many days in advance, has been greatly enhanced by a new finding that enabled us to forecast the approximate magnitude of the Padang, Sumatra, earthquake (30 September) two weeks in advance. The Padang earthquake was the first test of our new modelling process. It may be a few months before all the sites below are fully included in the new modelling, and the benefits become apparent.
Currently, the success rate* for forecasting magnitudes is about 94% (July 2009). Successful forecasts are made up to 30 days in advance, the average being 8 days ahead.
China
Sichuan Region
within 500 km
of a center point at
Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°
M5.0-M7.0
expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
China
Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai
within ≈500 km
of a center point at
Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89
M3.2-M5.2
expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Colombia
within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America
Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 26+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
M4.5
91% Probability
19th November 2009
Lat 6.722 Lon -72.980
265 km NNE of Bogota, Northern Colombia
(USGS source)
forecast 8 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga
Region
within ≈500 km of
a center point at
Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4
M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Greece
within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Guatemala -
El Salvador
Region
within ≈500 km from
Santa Ana, El Salvador
at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Hawaii
within ≈500 km of
a center point at Lat 19.9 Lon -155.9
on Island of Hawaii
M2.5-M4.5
expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Hokkaido,
Japan
within ≈500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Honshu Japan
Southern Region
within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040
M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Italy
'Rome Region'
within ≈400 km of Rome centered at
Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488
M2.3-M4.3
expected about Nov 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Islamabad Region,
Pakistan
within ≈425 km of
Islamabad, Pakistan
(Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07)
(includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Nov 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Java - Sunda Strait Region
(includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia)
within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait
at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 26+/-3days
(posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China)
within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan
at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Mexico
Southern Region
within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico
Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville
within ≈500 km Sulu, New
Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
New Zealand
Northern Region
within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island,
Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2,
including Nelson region and North tip of South Island
M4.6-M6.6
expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov
Sumatra
Northern Region
within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 7+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)
M4.8 98%
12th November 2009
Lat 0.305 Lon 98.478
250 km WNW from Padang,
Nias Region, Indonesia (USGS source)
forecast 12 days ahead
Sumatra, Southern Region
within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14
M4.2-M6.2
expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)
M5.4 96%
12th November 2009
Lat -4.766 Lon 103.026
140 km SE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source)
forecast 13 days ahead.
NOTE: see Java above, because this earthquake satisfies the forecast for both regions which overlap in the area where this M5.4 occurred
------------------------------
Earthquake Predictions.
This site predicts quakes 30 days in advance.
http://www.nextearthquake.com /earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#longterm
The ability to forecast large earthquakes, greater than M6.0, more accurately and many days in advance, has been greatly enhanced by a new finding that enabled us to forecast the approximate magnitude of the Padang, Sumatra, earthquake (30 September) two weeks in advance. The Padang earthquake was the first test of our new modelling process. It may be a few months before all the sites below are fully included in the new modelling, and the benefits become apparent.
Currently, the success rate* for forecasting magnitudes is about 94% (July 2009). Successful forecasts are made up to 30 days in advance, the average being 8 days ahead.
China
Sichuan Region
within 500 km
of a center point at
Lat 31.0° Lon 103.4°
M5.0-M7.0
expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
China
Xizang Region (Tibet) & part of South Qinghai
within ≈500 km
of a center point at
Lat 34.297 Lon 85.89
M3.2-M5.2
expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Colombia
within ≈450 km of Medellin, Colombia, South America
Lat 6.25 Lon -75.60
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 26+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
M4.5
91% Probability
19th November 2009
Lat 6.722 Lon -72.980
265 km NNE of Bogota, Northern Colombia
(USGS source)
forecast 8 days ahead
Fiji-Tonga
Region
within ≈500 km of
a center point at
Lat -20.67 Lon -178.4
M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Greece
within Lat 36-40°N and Lon 20-25°E
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 28+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Guatemala -
El Salvador
Region
within ≈500 km from
Santa Ana, El Salvador
at Lat 13.989 Lon -89.558
M3.8-M5.8
expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Hawaii
within ≈500 km of
a center point at Lat 19.9 Lon -155.9
on Island of Hawaii
M2.5-M4.5
expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Hokkaido,
Japan
within ≈500 km from
Yubetsu, Hokkaido
Lat 44.2 Lon 143.62
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 24+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Honshu Japan
Southern Region
within ≈500 km of a center ≈248 km SSE of Nagoya
at Lat 33.144 Lon 138.040
M4.5-M6.5
expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Italy
'Rome Region'
within ≈400 km of Rome centered at
Lat 41.89 Lon 12.488
M2.3-M4.3
expected about Nov 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Islamabad Region,
Pakistan
within ≈425 km of
Islamabad, Pakistan
(Lat 33.71 Lon 73.07)
(includes Hindu Kush, Afghanistan)
M4.0-M6.0
expected about Nov 20+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Java - Sunda Strait Region
(includes very southern Sumatra, Indonesia)
within ≈450 km from a center in Sunda Strait
at Lat -5.869 Lon 105.762
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 26+/-3days
(posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan to Afghanistan Region (and part of Southern Xinjiang, China)
within ≈500 km of a center near the border of Southern Xinjiang and Kyrgyzstan
at Lat 39.43 Lon 75.22
M4.3-M6.3
expected about Nov 23+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
Mexico
Southern Region
within ≈500 km of Acapulco, Mexico
Lat 16.876 Lon -99.89
M3.5-M5.5
expected about Nov 27+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
New Britain/ New Ireland/ Bougainville
within ≈500 km Sulu, New
Britain, Lat -5.4 Lon 150.9
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov)
New Zealand
Northern Region
within ≈500 km of Rotorua, North Island,
Lat -38.1 Lon 176.2,
including Nelson region and North tip of South Island
M4.6-M6.6
expected about Nov 22+/-3 days (posted 0600 hours 11th Nov
Sumatra
Northern Region
within ≈500 km of Medan, Northern Sumatra
Lat 3.6 Lon 98.67
M3.9-M5.9
expected about Nov 7+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)
M4.8 98%
12th November 2009
Lat 0.305 Lon 98.478
250 km WNW from Padang,
Nias Region, Indonesia (USGS source)
forecast 12 days ahead
Sumatra, Southern Region
within ≈500 km of Lubuktandjung, Sumatra
Lat -3.6 Lon 102.14
M4.2-M6.2
expected about Nov 13+/-3 days (posted 0615 hours 30th Oct)
M5.4 96%
12th November 2009
Lat -4.766 Lon 103.026
140 km SE of Bengkulu, Southern Sumatra (USGS source)
forecast 13 days ahead.
NOTE: see Java above, because this earthquake satisfies the forecast for both regions which overlap in the area where this M5.4 occurred
