Diaoyutai conflict must not get out of hand
Editorial 2012-10-23 11:55
Chinese vessels sail toward the disputed East China Sea islands, Oct. 11. (Photo/Xinhua)
The storm between China and Japan over the Diaoyutai (Diaoyu or Senkaku) islands in the East China Sea threatens to bring a military standoff between China and the United States to the brink of global catastrophe.
The US has brought more advanced fighter jets to Japan and sent carrier groups to both the East China Sea and the South China Sea in recent months and is considering deploying more attack submarines at Guam. More recently, the US plans to hold large-scale island defense drills with Japan.
There are even reports that the Pentagon has set up a special task force in response to the commissioning of China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning to cope with a possible military flare-up with China.
China has also started deploying large numbers of anti-ship guided missiles in coastal regions as well as conducting exercises at sea and dispatching patrols to safeguard its territorial claims. PLA vessels have frequently sailed through the first island chain for regular exercises in the Pacific.
Three PLA ships sailed through the Osumi Strait between Kagoshima and Tanegashima in southern Japan in April to consternation in Tokyo. In mid-October, seven PLA vessels approached waters not far from the islands at the center of the dispute with Japan, at a time when the US deputy secretary of state, William Burns, was on his way to visit Beijing. China had made an elaborate effort to conceal the movements of its naval ships to display that it has the capability, confidence and determination to enforce its claim to the islands.
According to separate American media reports, when the two US carrier groups conducted drills in the East China Sea and the South China Sea in early October, they detected unidentified objects following and encircling in the area. Reconnaissance aircraft were reportedly unable to pin down the unknown objects, forcing the carriers to readjust their position.
In Beijing, the training exercises were viewed as provocation and intimidation aimed at China.
The current state of Sino-Japanese relations can be likened to two goats facing off on a single-log bridge. Neither side can back down while keeping face, while any reckless move or misjudgment could cause major harm on both sides.
The US, China and Japan rank as the world's three largest economies and there would be no winner if armed conflict were to erupt. Although the leaders of the three nations are aware that confrontation will cause mutual losses while cooperation will bring mutual benefits, the battle lines appear drawn and cool heads must prevail if devastating conflict is to be avoided.
Admiral Samuel J Locklear, head of the US Pacific Command, has said that military conflict is not in line with the core interests of the US or China and that only frank dialogue can help reduce the chance of misjudgments. But the two sides should both first objectively review the roots of the standoff.
A rise in tensions between the US and China is essentially the heightening of mutual suspicions rather than China genuinely challenging US leadership in East Asia. The US is unwilling to look squarely at the "rise of China," thinking that the purpose of China's military modernization is to realize a Monroe Doctrine in the Far East. Washington has never taken seriously Beijing's claim that China will "never seek hegemony, never claim supremacy."
Ukeru Magosaki, a former Japanese diplomat, claims in his recent book The Truth Behind Postwar History that sowing conflict between China and Japan is an element of America's strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.
The latest issue of National Interest (NI) magazine, a bimonthly foreign policy journal, also says that the US giving its backing to Japan's nationalization of the East China Sea islands was intended to set off conflict between China and Japan and divert China's attention from the South China Sea area.
(The United States has declared itself to be neutral in the sovereignty dispute over the Diaoyutai and also says it does not take sides between the various claimants to South China Sea territories, urging the various parties to seek peaceful resolution while maintaining the security of a crucial shipping lane.)
If the US wants China to become a mature and confident power that fulfills its international responsibilities, strategies aimed at deterring and containing China are not wise, as these will wipe out all the gains from China-US dialogues. Reports from wire services have said that the US and Japan intend to cancel a joint military exercise aimed at recapturing islands originally scheduled for early November, which perhaps suggests a ray of hope for dialogue.
The sovereignty dispute between China and Japan has also exposed the difficulties faced by Taiwan in its balancing strategy of "maintaining pro-US policy, making peace with China and befriending Japan." Any escalation of conflict will also put Taiwan into the awkward situation of choosing sides.
Despite this, Taiwan is the only party offering a constructive way forward, not that any other party seems to want to entertain it — President Ma Ying-jeou's East China Sea Peace Initiatives, which would be worthy of serious consideration by China, the US and Japan alike.
