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- Dec 6, 2012
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A few observations, particularly in light of the numerous people who have proclaimed the "failure" and "death" of democracy in Malaysia:
1) 80% of registered voters turned up to vote. That's a higher voter turnout than vibrant democracies like the US (58%), Japan (60%) and France (72%). Surely this statistic alone is... something to be proud of. If democracy is contingent upon a populace eager to participate in the formation of its government, then the idea of democracy in Malaysia is truly flourishing. Surely the strength of democracy cannot be simply gauged by electoral results being in favor of the party/coalition/candidate of your choice.
2) Even IF the measure of democracy in Malaysia can only be measured by the success of the Opposition party, let's consider the stats. At the time of writing, I'm seeing a 112-58 BN-Pakatan split (based on MalaysiaKini). That's a total of 170 seats confirmed with 52 seats still left to report. That means Pakatan is just 24 seats short of equaling its 2008 performance with a potential upside of 28 seats. To top that off, most seats within traditional BN strongholds are already declared. To put that in perspective, Pakatan has the opportunity (assuming it sweeps the remaining 52 seats) to improve upon its 2008 performance by a grand 34%. Speak to any political strategist in the democratic world and offer him/her a 34% improvement in 4 years. They would cut both their ears off (the reference is entirely intentional) for such an uptick.
Sweeping overnight change within a nation of 28 million is simply unrealistic. If one pauses to consider the numbers, the changes taking place in Malaysia cannot even be described as marginal or incremental -these are significant jumps. They are real and that shouldn't be overlooked in favor of 'winning' outright.
3) Which brings me to a more sobering but equally important point: electoral math is the most important and sadly overlooked issue in most elections. Consider the following: Sabah, Sarawak and Johor collectively account for 96 parliamentary seats. That's 86% of the way to the 112 seats any coalition requires to form a majority government. The number of parliamentary seats conceded by BN in those 3 states during the 2008 elections? 3. Even the most fool-hardy Pakatan supporter must concede that the incumbency enjoyed by Barisan in those 3 states is a hefty one. And still, in spite of such overwhelming odds, Pakatan managed to pick up a commendable 14 seats in these 3 states this year (with several other constituencies yet to declare). There is greater focus on the welfare of our brothers and sisters in East Malaysia -long ignored by the more affluent Peninsula Malaysians.
It's OK for people to be disappointed in the outcome of the elections. It is understandable that evidence strongly suggesting electoral fraud cause massive outrage. Perhaps it is even fair that people feel cheated. I too, deplore the despicable acts of duplicity that have been the constant backdrop of this election. The rakyat is unhappy with the direction that the country is headed towards and want passionately for change to take place. But how has democracy died tonight? Surely the fact that we can this much is the very fact that demonstrates that democracy is well and alive in Malaysia. And for that, EVERYONE who turned up today at polling stations around the country deserves a heartfelt 'Thank You' for being brave enough to act upon the strength of their beliefs.
1) 80% of registered voters turned up to vote. That's a higher voter turnout than vibrant democracies like the US (58%), Japan (60%) and France (72%). Surely this statistic alone is... something to be proud of. If democracy is contingent upon a populace eager to participate in the formation of its government, then the idea of democracy in Malaysia is truly flourishing. Surely the strength of democracy cannot be simply gauged by electoral results being in favor of the party/coalition/candidate of your choice.
2) Even IF the measure of democracy in Malaysia can only be measured by the success of the Opposition party, let's consider the stats. At the time of writing, I'm seeing a 112-58 BN-Pakatan split (based on MalaysiaKini). That's a total of 170 seats confirmed with 52 seats still left to report. That means Pakatan is just 24 seats short of equaling its 2008 performance with a potential upside of 28 seats. To top that off, most seats within traditional BN strongholds are already declared. To put that in perspective, Pakatan has the opportunity (assuming it sweeps the remaining 52 seats) to improve upon its 2008 performance by a grand 34%. Speak to any political strategist in the democratic world and offer him/her a 34% improvement in 4 years. They would cut both their ears off (the reference is entirely intentional) for such an uptick.
Sweeping overnight change within a nation of 28 million is simply unrealistic. If one pauses to consider the numbers, the changes taking place in Malaysia cannot even be described as marginal or incremental -these are significant jumps. They are real and that shouldn't be overlooked in favor of 'winning' outright.
3) Which brings me to a more sobering but equally important point: electoral math is the most important and sadly overlooked issue in most elections. Consider the following: Sabah, Sarawak and Johor collectively account for 96 parliamentary seats. That's 86% of the way to the 112 seats any coalition requires to form a majority government. The number of parliamentary seats conceded by BN in those 3 states during the 2008 elections? 3. Even the most fool-hardy Pakatan supporter must concede that the incumbency enjoyed by Barisan in those 3 states is a hefty one. And still, in spite of such overwhelming odds, Pakatan managed to pick up a commendable 14 seats in these 3 states this year (with several other constituencies yet to declare). There is greater focus on the welfare of our brothers and sisters in East Malaysia -long ignored by the more affluent Peninsula Malaysians.
It's OK for people to be disappointed in the outcome of the elections. It is understandable that evidence strongly suggesting electoral fraud cause massive outrage. Perhaps it is even fair that people feel cheated. I too, deplore the despicable acts of duplicity that have been the constant backdrop of this election. The rakyat is unhappy with the direction that the country is headed towards and want passionately for change to take place. But how has democracy died tonight? Surely the fact that we can this much is the very fact that demonstrates that democracy is well and alive in Malaysia. And for that, EVERYONE who turned up today at polling stations around the country deserves a heartfelt 'Thank You' for being brave enough to act upon the strength of their beliefs.
