Condo Supply: Total no. of units in the pipeline.

[freedom2005sg]

IMHO,

Either get condos still with RM400++ psf at a generally good location.

Or just wait for property correction and get a RM1 mil landed. The stupid rule probably makes a lot of Singaporeans have to stash up more cash now to enter JB property market now.

Ok thx, assessment seems quite logical to me. Not a lot of landed at a nice price now though, esp with the RM 1 million rule.

 

[freedom2005sg]

Danga bay units will have the toughest time to rent out. Numer of units per acre is unbelievable.

City area (up to about 2km radius from CIQ) including the Danga Bay, because of higher land cost, will mostly be high density development.

 

[freedom2005sg]

How much psf did you buy your R&F unit?

I bought a unit at R&F for investment and future exit strategy from Singapore..
I am also fearful of the oversupply situation..
Excessive no. of units in this project..
But 1 thing is certain..

This is one of the few condos within walking distance from CIQ...
Location is SUPERB for me..

Hence, I bought a unit..

 

[freedom2005sg]

Did you ask your friend his landed is it GnG?

One of main reasons of my hesitation is crime rate there as I heard stories about robberies etc...someone told me a few years ago, her boss bought a landed property in JB. While playing majong with his friends, a group of robberies carrying parangs and went in to rob him + majong kakies...not sure how the security now though...

 

[freedom2005sg]

I think what he meant was ppl buy Country Garden at high psf, thinking they can rent out, in the end have to compete with 9000 other similar Country Garden units , then can't rent out.

And they are not staying there, many units will be empty. So ghost city as there are so many vacant units.

Very contradicting leh. If JB become ghost city why would anyone buy into "developer jacked up price" units???

 

[freedom2005sg]

I think there are other investments safer than Iskandar properties at this point in time, ie. with the skyrocketing psf and oversupply of condos.

Silver and gold are very low in price now.

I have stashed up on silver bullion. May do so for gold but silver is severely undervalued now. Heard Warren Buffet just bought a few million ounces of silver. Bet he gonna dump them when silver hits USD50 and earn hundreds of millions of dollars at one go.

Expatriate market in JB is quite limited. There is a cluster in East Ledang and they intro their friends over. I got both my tenants without advertisement. I hear that there is a cluster in Leisure Farm too. Possibly there is a cluster in Horizon Hills as well but HH is a very big place. I believe there is also a cluster of expat at Molek area working at Pasir Gudang. These are primarily expats working in JB. A handful who do not mind travelling to Singapore stays in JB as well... but as you would expat the traffic and toll charges will ultimately determine if they will stay.

 

[freedom2005sg]

China has a well know Ghost City.

It was built for a population of 1 million people. Bet there are tens of thousands of condo units there.

In the end, only 20,000 are presently living there.

Can see a lot of ghosts. lol

Now China want to screw up Iskandar.

If the Sultan is blind, so be it. Karma follows bad people.

I never say "no one buy".

Ghost city can be sold out; yet not one come and stay.

Hence I repeat myself again and again.....

Ghost city have a occupancy rate lesser than 40%. (meant 10,000 units only 4,000 or lesser got occupants)
Ghost city can have a high bought rate of 80% or even more.

I am telling people whom buy and stay..... avoid potential ghost city....

 

[freedom2005sg]

Thus only Limited units for selected projects left now. For new launches after May 2014? must purchase above RM 1mil.

By next year, I think all Singaporeans must buy RM1 mil units as there are simply no more approved RM500k units left.

Medini is exception but it is 99 years leasehold (same as HDB). Only 1 medina project is 99+30=129 years leasehold.

A developer has written and voiced out, saying the RM1 mil rule is hitting them hard.

Maybe the crazy King will revise the rule. Who knows?

If Najib cant control him, perhaps the Creator might do something about it.

Any project that requires foreigner purchasing RM$1m above is out of question for me...only consider those below that...

 

[freedom2005sg]

Aunty,

if you buying for own stay is ok. Even if Tri Tower sells at RM2000 psf, if you own stay is ok.

A MB Land sales person told me anything above RM 800 psf is way overpriced. He is now SELLING his Sky Suites unit, and NOT BUYING iskandar units. Sky suites is now RM1000 psf. He probably bought it at RM500 psf.

And a Meridin sales person told me for rental, anything above RM 550 psf is risky.

thanks for pictures/video...nice of you...

The agent that recommends this project bought a unit at Bayu Marina Resort..he early entry must have got it cheap cheap... I like the sceneries he send...Phase 1 all sold out within 2 weeks - bought mostly by Malaysians, Phase 2 launching on 13 Sept....only that this project need S$36K for downpayment+levy...waterfront/golf view would be nice but cost more of cost....might also consider D Secret as it requires low cash outlay...

 

[freedom2005sg]

Rich china people mah..

Look how they play around with Vietnam in the South China Sea by building a military air strip at the island now.

They think they got nukes big fark mah...lol

Look at pic no 4! that's the sales chart!? looks like a NYSE trading board. That's the no of units on offer. All at once. That's why I dislike these two china company. screwing up a fragile market.

 

[freedom2005sg]

I hope they screw up big time.

Heard they almost went bankrupt and needs to be bailed out by the Chinese government last time.

It is an analyst report.

Summary:
1. Outlook for RnF is negative. Their debt ratio is high. This means higher risk for their secured debt instruments. Their sales was below market expectation for Jan - Jun 2014.
2. Downgrade on rating is possible.
3. They have 24 cities in china and 1 in Johor. The one in johor has execution risk.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ion-in-Malaysia-is-credit-negative--PR_288031

"Malaysia is a new market for the group, and where it has yet to establish its brand and a track record. The new project will also expose the group to regulatory uncertainties in Malaysia's property market.

Further, the acquisition is sizeable in total price, representing 7.3% of the group's total assets as of June 2013.

The project will require sizable investments upfront, including construction costs, before it can be presold, as estimated by the company by end-2014."

4. They need to sell, sell, sell.
5. If they develop the project too quickly, their debt rating will be worsen.

In short, they are desperate for sales. But if they develop their projects quickly, they face higher risk on their debt in the short term.

 

[freedom2005sg]

Shctaw,

can you do an analysis of Meridin Bayvue and D Ambience and share with me your thoughts about the rental potential?

Which would be easiest to rent out? Both TOP 2017.

What about D Rich? TOP this year.

Thanks.

You expect the agent to tell you their project is no good? Seriously?

I give you a few tips on buying condos......which I use personally.

1. Don't listen to what agent and developer say.
2. Do your own analysis.
3. Do not visit the showroom if you have not decide to buy.
4. Imagine you are buying ten instead of one. (Best if you imagine buying with every cents you have.)
5. Compare neighboring projects.
6. Do not compare completed condo with brand new condo.
7. Avoid leasehold if neighboring project is freehold.

Now you have it....... Go find your dream home.

 

[freedom2005sg]

Talking about 3rd link.

Will Malaysians who work in Singapore take the 3rd link? 3rd link won't have RTS-MRT.

If they won't use 3rd link much, then its just for Singaporeans own comfort (eg. going north to own condo at Masai to stay).

Once 3 links are up, which links will be used most often remains to be seen. And they could be affected by the commercial/industrial developments in Singapore, where the Malaysians work.

That speaker suggest a few spots...the most likely spot he thinks is between Lim Chu Kang there and Gelang Patah...so it is a guessing game...

 

[freedom2005sg]

I hope your aim of picking up a R&F unit is for own stay.

I will never buy any country garden or R&F for rent out purposes.

For own stay, I already got D Esplanade Residence above KSL City.

If for rent, you have to compete with 30,000 other units from Country Garden+R&F. May take 10 years to rent out. Need a lot of holding power. lol...just kidding...

No leh...somewhere between 1st and 2nd link....2nd link is much to the left near tuas there...

According to the speaker, it cost least to build since shortest distance compare to other spots plus that tycoon Peter Lim invest the motor sports hub + other investments near there...so depends on individual believe...

Anyway, I not yet commit any JB property cos I have earlier pick up a 1-bedder SG property...to rent out initially, retire in, or as a legacy to my kids...if I didn't buy this, I will be able to pick up a 1 studio+2 bedder at R&F(my goodness...) Anyway, friends advise me not to overstretched so I need to seriously think about it...I am only a salaried worker and job security is important...

 

[freedom2005sg]

The studio is only 464 sq ft. It comes out to be a whopping RM970 psf after doing the calculation. And its not even near CIQ or waterfront project.

Those who buy it are screwed up big time.

Maybe when you buy D Inspire in 2012 at RM485 psf, that is a good buy. I didn't buy in 2012 coz I'm already vested in KSL's D Esplanade Residence above KSL RM5 billion project MegaMall City. Biggest project at that time.

They send 3 agents trying to psycho me to buy. lol

I look at location and psf primarily as I want to rent out.

Anything above RM550 psf raises an alarm.

But if you are going to stay at D Inspire, then RM970 psf should not concern you.

I did enquire about projects like D Inspire which has sales packages that suits people with tight cashflow, but a friend who plays KL properties say the units pricey(eg a studio at RM$500k+ before 25%rebate) so I didn't go ahead.

 

[freedom2005sg]

lol my Frank Knight agent today also whatsapp me, ask me buy The Bridge.

Many frank knight agents have bought many units there.

About 10 units sold per week at the current rate.

Need a total of USD52,000 for the progressive payment.

You can loan from Cambodia bank but interest rate is 8%.

Just received an SMS from an agent on a Cambodia project THE BRIDGE by OXLEY - 50% CASH, 50% LOAN - 10% CASH every half year...this project no cash no talk..

 

[freedom2005sg]

Tropez Residences all sold out.

Bora Residences still selling I believe, some at RM800++ psf.

Danga Bay investors will have a very hard time renting out, if you compare the number of units per acre with JB city and Nursajaya.

If I buy Danga Bay, it will only be for own stay.

I think the Danga Bay developers are pissed off that the Chinese are intruding upon their territories.

Be spoilt for choice.
Expect at least another 12,000 to 15,000 units of condos, combined with mixed developments of hotels and shopping centres, coming into the market soon, most likely before the year ends.
And again, they are all mega projects by Chinese developers -
Greenland Group
China Vanke
Hao Yuen Investment.

They are all within the Danga Bay area.
Greenland Group had already put up the boarding and is just beside the Country Garden site.
Just wondering why is Greenland still taking its own sweet time to launch its project.
Country Garden and R&F had already started selling, shouldn't they be quick to launch to catch the favourable tailwind ?

 

[freedom2005sg]

My castlewood agent has been hounding me with multiple smses for the past 2 weeks.

I'm only interested in real physical properties that I can own.

I'm avoiding her like the Ebola virus.

lol.

ha...ha..thanks for the answer...

Just to share with everyone I came across a roadshow,promoting hotel development in Thailand, using a famous hotel brand. Investors don't buy the property but buy the leases. The plot of land is at Bangtao in Phuket, where Banyang Resorts are. Minimum amount is S$35k for 10 leases. For next 6 years, they pay you a guaranteed return of 5%, which is $1,750/-. If you choose variable return package, then return varies. On signing Agreement, say in Sept, you get your 1st cheque for 5%. return. In 2020, they appoint CBRE to market their development - sell everything land, biz, etc., then you get back your capital and return.

A friend of mine recently join this type of scheme but theirs is they are developing a bare Indonesian Island into a resort kind. That one only need S$5k to invest, but yearly return is 20%.

Buyers of this type of scheme like a biz partner. Buyers don't tie ourselves down with a property + it is not that long term. According to them, the boss have been interviewed by Channelnewasia. She also quote a local celebraty who now became an ambassador for this development cos this celebraty like the brand. But S$35k is quite a big sum for ordinary people so must do more research before decide.

 

[freedom2005sg]

Why not buy into gold and silver, where you own the real physical assets? Instead of putting money into the bank, where it cant even beat inflation?

I'm stashing up on silver coins like the American silver eagle, Canadian Maple Leaf and Swiss PAMP gold bars. Once the price goes up again in a few years time, I'm going to sell back to UOB and laugh all the way to the bank, without all the risks.

Guess safer to leave it in bank or FD...

My son say even if got money, also not to buy overseas properties cos he say ma fan..many aspects to look into...

 

[freedom2005sg]

The Brio Residence agent emailed me today with all the details.

I've gone through.

The price per square feet (psf) is RM800++. Then I remembered the MB land sales person told me, anything above RM800 is way overpriced.

Buy for own stay is ok. Buy for rent, good luck.

Thus I rejected.

Yap, 2-bedder 13th floor, after 15% discount is $490k...

Just share with you - I saw a new project called Brios Serviced Apartment coming up, they tear down the mall next to Platino to build a new mall and Brios Residences is on top of it...I kind of like the concept so I kaypo and make enquiry about Brios Residences and details are:-
Type D - studio - 523 sf - 561 sf Indicative $448k to $571k -- the agent say left 12 units - not sure real or not
Type C - 2 bedder - 1088 sf - $857k - $949k
Agent say got 10% discount. Didn't ask any details as I have no budget...

Mount Austin new condos expensive?