Condo Supply: Total no. of units in the pipeline.

[FHBH12]

Look at pic no 4! that's the sales chart!? looks like a NYSE trading board. That's the no of units on offer. All at once. That's why I dislike these two china company. screwing up a fragile market.

The Chinese developers upped the ante by offering integrated condo-living concept at lower prices than local developers. Princess Cove is very well located IMHO. The greatest impact is the $1mil RM ruling that eliminates foreigners' access to properties priced below this limit. If the limit is removed, Singaporeans' demand will shoot up again. Generally Singapore buyers are quite cautious about putting >$1mil RM into a market with flip-flopping government policy. The Clob incident still haunts and there are more atas UK (London) and Australia property markets competing with Johor.

 

[LeMans2011]

Wah.. Mr CsLong.. welcome to the forum.
How come after you emerged everybody started quarrelling ah. Here very pissful one you know.

 

[malpaso]

This is one important statement you purposely omitted from the moody report

"The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Guangzhou R&F will continue to generate strong contracted sales as well as maintain its current gross profit margin and good liquidity position."

and your intention is indeed bad...... what a disappointment...

Whole report then, verbatim.

"Hong Kong, March 21, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service says that Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.'s (Guangzhou R&F) increased debt leverage in 2013 has weakened its financial position, narrowing the rating headroom for its Ba2 corporate family rating. The company's operating performance in 2013 was generally in line with Moody's expectation.

The rating outlook is stable.

"The company raised a sizable amount of debt in 2H 2013 and a further USD1 billion in early 2014 to fund its significant land purchases in 2013 and prefund its construction and refinancing needs in 2014," says Kaven Tsang, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

R&F's gross debt as of 31 December 2013 surged to RMB61.4 billion from RMB45.8 billion as of June 2013. Moody's expects its gross debt level to reach RMB73.6 billion post the January 2014 bond issuance.

"After adjustment for its upcoming bond maturities, Guangzhou R&F's debt leverage is 64%, which weakly positions it at the Ba2 rating level," adds Tsang, also the lead analyst for Guangzhou R&F.

Its adjusted debt/capitalization was 65% as of end December 2013, and its revenue/gross debt dropped to 59% in 2013 from 70% for the last twelve months ended June 2013.

In 2013, Guangzhou R&F purchased land amounting to a total GFA of 20.9 million sqm for a total commitment of more than RMB40 billion. A majority of it remains unpaid and will be paid in the next 1-2 years.

At the same time, R&F's sales performance is in line with expectation.

The company reported contracted sales of RMB42.2 billion for FY2013, up 23% year-on-year and in line with its full-year sales target of RMB42 billion.

Guangzhou R&F also reported a 19% year on year growth in book revenue to RMB36.3 billion in 2013. It had a gross profit margin of 39.2%, which is largely stable from the 40.8% in 2012.

Guangzhou R&F's higher than average profit margin provides some cushion against declining prices in case of a market slowdown.

However, Guangzhou R&F's adjusted EBITDA/interest coverage at 3.2x in 2013 provides the company with limited rating headroom.

This ratio could be under pressure in the next 6-12 months if the company is unable to meet its sales target, given its increased interest expense burden.

The company has maintained a strong liquidity, which can partly mitigate the financial risk associated with its high debt leverage.

At end-2013, Guangzhou R&F had cash on hand of RMB24.3 billion, representing 1.3x of its short-term debt.

This cash holding, together with the proceeds from the USD1 billion bond issued in January 2014 and Moody's estimated operating cash flow of RMB8-RMB10 billion for the company, can cover its short-term debt of RMB18.1 billion at end-2013 and its committed land payments of around RMB15-20 billion.

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Guangzhou R&F will continue to generate strong contracted sales as well as maintain its current gross profit margin and good liquidity position.

However, downward rating pressure could emerge if: (1) the company significantly falls short of its property sales target; (2) it materially accelerates development, and/or executes an aggressive land acquisition plan, such that its liquidity weakens with cash falling substantially below the level of its short-term debt; or (3) debt increases substantially such that adjusted debt/capitalization fails to trend down to 60%, revenue/gross debt fails to trend up to 70%-80% in the next 6-12 months, or EBITDA/interest drops below 3x-3.5x.

Upward rating pressure is unlikely in the near term given the company's aggressive expansion and high debt leverage. However, the rating could be upgraded in the medium term if the company can demonstrate a track record of improving its financial profile, especially in its debt leverage, through further geographical diversification and successful sales execution, while maintaining good profitability and disciplined land acquisitions.

Moody's will consider an upgrade if the company maintains adjusted debt/capitalization below 50%-55%, EBITDA/interest above 4x-4.5x, and revenue/gross debt above 90%-100%.

The principal methodology used in this rating was the Global Homebuilding Industry published in March 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Established in 1994 and listed on the Hong Kong Exchange in 2005, Guangzhou R&F Properties Co Ltd is a mid-sized developer in China's residential and commercial properties sector. As of 31 December 2013, the company had an attributable land bank of 43.3 million sqm in 25 cities and area, including 24 cities and area in China and 1 in Malaysia. Mr Li Sze Lim and Mr Zhang Li are the co-founders of the company and own 33.36% and 32.02% in equity interests, respectively.

Kaven Tsang
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077
Gary Lau
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077"

 

[malpaso]

malpaso.... enough la. I have high regards on you but your recent posting is really disappointing. Trying to create news out of nothing to deceive the readers here? Why you become like that? Even when you show the whole document, you still did not repent and continue to highlight the so call "negative" news of RnF. It makes you really look bad especially the whole report maintain positive and stable outlook for RnF. You should have apologise and just move on. You might have been influence by a few bad apples in this forum but i really hope you can be yourself again.

sigh. first you say you have respect on me. then you say i'm "creating news" "out of nothing" to "deceive" readers. then you want me to "repent" and "apologize".

Did you know Moody's just cut R&F Guanzhou rating from stable to negative (yesterday 28/8/2014)? It's true. OK, I won't post it here since I don't want you to feel disappointed on me. You can google it if you don't believe me. But do note that it's ON THE INTERNET, ie public info!

this is the internet. you can post what you want, everyone else have the right to post too. Some post are opinion, some are facts, some are just tokok singsong for fun. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and so on. you look back on how you talk to old timer here like FHBH12, Funniman . Not polite at all.

OK, I sincerely apologize for calling you a bird brain. That's it. (I couldn't resist it.) I hope you can also apologize for calling me a hypocrite. It's up to you.

 

[malpaso]

You know the real reason of my disappointment is not on the information in the internet. Is about how you put it up in this forum. If the report from internet does mention the negative info on a developer, just show it without filtration or hiding info here and there. I have debunked many false info from internet that have been put up by others before.

If you really look back my previous posting, i only defended myself by numerous personal attack by several bad apples here. You knew it. I am always polite to those who state their view constructively even with differ opinion. I also see you as one that can discuss any issues constructively. I sincerely apologise to you for calling you a hypocrite or have mention anything that bring unease to you.

OK. apology accepted. Information is information. You have to understand internet is open and news is free for everyone. Don't call people names becos you don't agree their view.

 

[AUNTY]

Don't go to the same fengshui master as this "experience"chinese local developer...all ma tong will end up in the centre..

Ventilation is only one of the major problem. The real disaster is the davenham type have toilet right in the center ...i mean DEAD CENTER! You can look the floor layout to confirm this. I was shock too to know this because hard to accept that this type of mistake come from a so call "experience" chinese local developer. Fengshui rule is still relevant now. As for those buyer who knew this now, they are trying their best to convince EcoWorld to change it because it will definitely hard for them to sell it off later too. UNless they buy and dont intent to sell off later.

 

[AUNTY]

Both you and malpaso are technically strong....I try to understand the Moody's financial analysis on R&F but find it confusing...

I suspect the architect used may not be a chinese for this project. Really hard to swallow this type of mistake.

 

[malpaso]

Both you and malpaso are technically strong....I try to understand the Moody's financial analysis on R&F but find it confusing...

It is an analyst report.

Summary:
1. Outlook for RnF is negative. Their debt ratio is high. This means higher risk for their secured debt instruments. Their sales was below market expectation for Jan - Jun 2014.
2. Downgrade on rating is possible.
3. They have 24 cities in china and 1 in Johor. The one in johor has execution risk.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ion-in-Malaysia-is-credit-negative--PR_288031

"Malaysia is a new market for the group, and where it has yet to establish its brand and a track record. The new project will also expose the group to regulatory uncertainties in Malaysia's property market.

Further, the acquisition is sizeable in total price, representing 7.3% of the group's total assets as of June 2013.

The project will require sizable investments upfront, including construction costs, before it can be presold, as estimated by the company by end-2014."

4. They need to sell, sell, sell.
5. If they develop the project too quickly, their debt rating will be worsen.

In short, they are desperate for sales. But if they develop their projects quickly, they face higher risk on their debt in the short term.

 

[malpaso]

You are right. Information is information. Pls dont filter and hide info just to support your claim. This doing is unethical. I dont simply call people names. Unless, you start advising others who do the same to me, than you have no ground to even talk about it because it makes you really look like a hyp...

I don't filter and hide. I post the link and take out excerpts to save bandwidth on the server. As you can see, the analyst report has turned even less favourable for your own favourite china developer. The complete link is there for everyone to see.

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-Guangzhou-RFs-ratings-outlook-to-negative--PR_307283

Main highlight:
"Hong Kong, August 28, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has changed to negative from stable the outlook of Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd.'s (Guangzhou R&F) Ba2 corporate family rating and R&F Properties (HK) Company Limited's (R&F HK) Ba3 corporate family rating.

Moody's has also changed to negative from stable the outlook of the Ba3 senior unsecured ratings assigned to the notes issued by Caifu Holdings Limited and Trillion Chance Limited. The bonds are unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by R&F HK, and supported by Guangzhou R&F through Keepwell Deed and Deed of Equity Interest Purchase Undertaking."

Your apology is insincere as you again called me a hypocrite. Look at yourself first. Nobody in this forum is like you. You are extremely immature.

 

[AUNTY]

When a developer develop a project, they will obtain a project loan, which will finance the cost..and the units sold is vital for the project profitablility and cashflow. If the project sold well, the progressive payments coming in will help the servicing of the loan+other expenses. Besides bank loan, it helps if the holding company or subsidiaries are cash rich to help pay the loan + other charges in case project not sold well. Those projects not sold well they may rent them out...

R&F project is a huge one, the location is good but it needs RM$1m to buy so maybe hold some people back...there are some projects below RM$1m near CIQ like Suasana(just learn of this project yesterday at ST Property talk) and 8 Tebrau, so there maybe some people who don't mind it is a small project and drive another 5 to 10 mins...so only time will tell whether how much sales are generated...

BTW, we are not shareholders of R&F so no need to worry so much la....

Thanks aunty..... I just merely exposed someone that is trying very hard to tarnish the reputation of a genuine developer.

 

[AUNTY]

IJM Land is developing a project called SEBANA COVE RESORT at an ulu place there called PENGERANG...very huge project...many low rise houses and huge sq ft...I just ask for fun since I am there...

When a developer develop a project, they will obtain a project loan, which will finance the cost..and the units sold is vital for the project profitablility and cashflow. If the project sold well, the progressive payments coming in will help the servicing of the loan+other expenses. Besides bank loan, it helps if the holding company or subsidiaries are cash rich to help pay the loan + other charges in case project not sold well. Those projects not sold well they may rent them out...

R&F project is a huge one, the location is good but it needs RM$1m to buy so maybe hold some people back...there are some projects below RM$1m near CIQ like Suasana(just learn of this project yesterday at ST Property talk) and 8 Tebrau, so there maybe some people who don't mind it is a small project and drive another 5 to 10 mins...so only time will tell whether how much sales are generated...

BTW, we are not shareholders of R&F so no need to worry so much la....

 

[AUNTY]

One agent told me must be above RM1M...

What you said is correct. Anyway for your info, many units in RnF are sold below RM1m. If i am not wrong, the cheapest is around RM600K and the popular 2 bedders is around 700k plus.

 

[AUNTY]

Some buyers did ask the agents whether it will be polluted or not... the agent say no (wait to be seen).....My friend stay at a condo near Bukit Gombak, her sofa cloth is almost white in colour, as time goes by due to industrial air, the cloth has spots on them. She said due to polluted air...

A colleague friend (Malaysian) bought a landed at MASAI, as he thought they are building a 3rd bridge there, but in the end not there..thinking he speculating..

Looks good but i think petronas is building a petroluem complex there at pengerang. Not sure is nearby or not.

 

[shctaw]

You expect the agent to tell you their project is no good? Seriously?

I give you a few tips on buying condos......which I use personally.

1. Don't listen to what agent and developer say.
2. Do your own analysis.
3. Do not visit the showroom if you have not decide to buy.
4. Imagine you are buying ten instead of one. (Best if you imagine buying with every cents you have.)
5. Compare neighboring projects.
6. Do not compare completed condo with brand new condo.
7. Avoid leasehold if neighboring project is freehold.

Now you have it....... Go find your dream home.

Some buyers did ask the agents whether it will be polluted or not... the agent say no (wait to be seen).....My friend stay at a condo near Bukit Gombak, her sofa cloth is almost white in colour, as time goes by due to industrial air, the cloth has spots on them. She said due to polluted air...

A colleague friend (Malaysian) bought a landed at MASAI, as he thought they are building a 3rd bridge there, but in the end not there..thinking he speculating..

 

[AUNTY]

wah, so many tips...hmm..the hardest to do is Tip No. 2 - analysis - which areas do you look into?

You expect the agent to tell you their project is no good? Seriously?

I give you a few tips on buying condos......which I use personally.

1. Don't listen to what agent and developer say.
2. Do your own analysis.
3. Do not visit the showroom if you have not decide to buy.
4. Imagine you are buying ten instead of one. (Best if you imagine buying with every cents you have.)
5. Compare neighboring projects.
6. Do not compare completed condo with brand new condo.
7. Avoid leasehold if neighboring project is freehold.

Now you have it....... Go find your dream home.

 

[potter]

Some buyers did ask the agents whether it will be polluted or not... the agent say no (wait to be seen).....My friend stay at a condo near Bukit Gombak, her sofa cloth is almost white in colour, as time goes by due to industrial air, the cloth has spots on them. She said due to polluted air...

A colleague friend (Malaysian) bought a landed at MASAI, as he thought they are building a 3rd bridge there, but in the end not there..thinking he speculating..

Gombak is surrounded by hills. i dun buy your friend's story.
Nobody knows where is the 3rd bridge, but yr friend maybe correct in e end.

 

[Frodo]

Gombak is surrounded by hills. i dun buy your friend's story.
Nobody knows where is the 3rd bridge, but yr friend maybe correct in e end.

And I hope your friend is really correct in the end! Vested interest...hiak hiak hiak...

 

[Frodo]

What you said is correct. Anyway for your info, many units in RnF are sold below RM1m. If i am not wrong, the cheapest is around RM600K and the popular 2 bedders is around 700k plus.

But for foreigners must buy 2 units (dual key apartment, studio plus 2 bedders considered as one purchase) to meet RM1 million requirement.

 

[AUNTY]

Er...I mean Bukit Gombak MRT Station in Singapore...she is staying at a condo nearby..... she say the air is from Industrial Area...

Gombak is surrounded by hills. i dun buy your friend's story.
Nobody knows where is the 3rd bridge, but yr friend maybe correct in e end.

 

[AUNTY]

That speaker suggest a few spots...the most likely spot he thinks is between Lim Chu Kang there and Gelang Patah...so it is a guessing game...

And I hope your friend is really correct in the end! Vested interest...hiak hiak hiak...