Con·trar·i·an Jo·h·or

[ikani]

Re: Store of Value

Interesting read from ikani ... Looking to read more postings from ikani ...

A big Thank You. May you too be enriched by your own devices for the coming year and years ahead …

I shall try to be useful in the coming posts. Sharing is always the way ahead. With unity comes strength. If there are differences, let the elders here make the final arbitrations.

… just sold away her landed terrace-linked house for RM 328,000 ... When she bought it perhaps 25 years back, it was around SGD 90,000 (i.e. 1 SGD = RM 1.4 then) Now is 1 SGD = RM 3.12 … Is it a store of value? Is it a good buy?? …

First, I must thank you for letting us have your data input as reference (it is very rare to have a 25-year data input). Without these data inputs, what I explained so far is nothing more than hot air. With more data inputs, we can either collaborate or invalidate our investment model. For this, a big, big, big thank you.

There are 2 ways to assess its capital investment worth:

• SGD:
  At a cost of $90,000,
  After 25 years, the sale price is $105,128 (rm328,000/3.12).
  IRR (internal rate of return) = 0.6% (very miserable)
• MYR:
  At a cost of rm126,000 ($90,000 x 1.4),
  After 25 years, the sale price is rm328,000.
  IRR = 3.9% (looks rather standard)

From the above, one can easily conclude that capital investment returns for real estate is negligible. It is, at best, a mere store of value.

However, there is another return that one must consider, i.e., rental returns. At a modest gross 3% rental returns per year and after 25 years, one would have collected 75% more.

Add this to the IRR calculation, for SGD, IRR = 2.8% (which makes it average return again) and for MYR, IRR = 5.7% (which makes it slightly superior return).

To summarize, this investment is truly very store-of-value.

Based on the data given, it is very likely that the property was bought brand new and had incurred that developer’s curse. If the property was original bought off the second-hand market, the investment would have been interesting.

Based on my personal knowledge, this same property can be gotten at around rm63,000 from the second-hand market (but buying cheaper means selling cheaper, say, -10%, the second-hand market is normally not too far from each other, a 25yo property would have been re-classified as normal property, no longer brand new property); recalculating the IRRs, for SGD, IRR = 5.1% (which makes it above average return) and for MYR, IRR = 8.0% (which makes it a truly superior return).

Also, another point is that Johore properties don’t grow very much due to its land mass. Therefore, the dynamics is very different from that of sg.

Finally, if one has bought this property for enjoyment, then that 25 years would be unimaginably superior to the pigeon-hole slavery. Sad …

Please wait for my property investment essay as an input to your further analysis of whether property investment is just a store-of-value or a true capital investment ...

For me, I bought a condo near CIQ instead ...
Not really for investment, but for various other reasons such as exit strategy, retirement, options ...

There is no right or wrong choice as long as one is happy. I am a lot happier here than in sg. If along the way, I make some money, why not? Otherwise, I am totally contented to live life here.

I have been meeting a little more MY friends now. Not yet the genuine-type, this takes time to develop, but it is definitely work-in-progress.

in metta …

 

[ikani]

Property Investment – A Store-of-Value or Capital Gain?

Property Investment – A Store-of-Value or Capital Gain?

Sigh … I have lost a shit load of text … Rewriting from memory is always tough. It’s a long read, hope you peeps can be patient.

Owner-Occupied Property

There is no debate on owner-occupied property; the bank and the developer would punish this group the worst, with maximum developer’s curse. The owner has to pay for all rates, outgoings, interests and inconveniences due in very poor amenities, until the new township is fully established.

The owner has to “get it back” through other things, such as living on firm land, keeping big huskies, serama ayams, miniature ducks, endangered tortoises or pygmy marmosets, drink non-shit water, anyhow park car, anyhow travel, anyhow play crackers and fire-works, eat 2-foot red groupers whole, eat running chickens, eat 1-kg frogs, eat 忘不了or hehehe … (pangolin? This one I haven’t tried yet) anything that moves. All these are done, without breaking one’s wallet.

Warren Buffet

Have you ever wondered why the greatest and very successful investor alive, Warren Buffet, doesn’t even bother to invest in real estate in the US and yet the richest Asian businessmen are all successful heavy property tycoons?

A very difficult question to answer, I shall try my best.

Preamble

• USA
  
  For the longest of time, going back for about 100 years or any few hundred years before, the property prices didn’t move a dime, apart from inflation (fiat money was only introduced in 1971). Therefore, if an investor was to invest in a property 100 years ago and if he were to liquidate it now, the property is priced exactly at its inflated price, not a dime more, i.e., it is just a perfect store-of-value.
  
  One can easily understand this: If one were to find the city too packed or expensive, the new buyer would have to consider the cheaper and bigger suburbs. Once the suburbs have grown into city-like, the newer buyers would have to consider further outlying estate. This however is not a problem, a 5-minute additional drive on the freeway in any direction, would have yielded millions of hectares for new development. This expansive land mass would definitely limit the property price growth to only that of inflation-hedge.
  
  Therefore, Warren Buffet living on such land would not have bothered to invest in such a boring investment instrument. Instead, he found early pleasure in insurance.
  
  
• Insurance – A More Exciting Game
  
  For insurance, it is based on cumulative power. The insurance company is involved in organizing this cumulative power and in the process reaps great benefit.
  
  For example, say, there are 10,000 cars on the road. On the average, say, the insurance claims amount to about $1m per month (which is a lot of money). Based on pure cost and effect, each car owner would only need to pay $100 per month ($1m / 10,000) to drive on the road. This is in fact the current going insurance rate in USA and Canada and the insurance company organizing this was even able to turn a profit as well. Imagine how much you have been paying sick cunts for the privilege to drive on the road?
  
  Most insurance companies are quite sick in their profit making, i.e., at least 80% on premium covers. That’s the reason why Warren Buffet is able to generate billions of insurance profits for doing almost nothing (only needed to pay out 20% of their cover collection) (Remember! The insurance company was trying to con you of your hard-earned money by claiming bonus generation from unused part of the premium! But when the time comes, they claim otherwise, assholes!).
  
  I will cite an easier example: The 4D betting. The first, second and third prizes are $3,500, $2,000 and $1,000, giving a total pay-out of $6,500 for each $1 bet. In 4D betting, 10,000 numbers from 0000 to 9999 can be bet. Assuming all 10,000 numbers were bet ($10,000), the total prize pay-out would be drawn ($6,500), giving a 35% profit to the house ($10,000 - $6,500 = $3,500). Insurance companies are worse; they easily curb their pay-out to less than 20% (giving 80% profit), thus making insurance companies one of the most profitable companies in the world. On top of that, they even have a battery of lawyers to help them not pay more than necessary.
  
  
• Asia – Massive Populace
  
  On the other hand, Asia is full of people, but land scarce. It is people after people. It is people everywhere. With people, comes demand for housing and food. Many of these assets are chased out of sync from its actual economic growth. Just look at Tokyo, Hong Kong and Bangalore, their property prices are out of this world. It simply can’t be sustained. When this happens, property can no longer be a good investment tool, but a mere store-of-value.
  
  Japan is going nowhere with her lost decades. So shall the cute little island in the south.
  
  One must have heard of super tycoons moving their investments elsewhere out of Asia, but, the Chinese was angry and decided to shut these super tycoons off their rightful gains. In the meantime, those investments that managed to be placed outside of Asia were also suffering from asset stagnation. Those new placements were not behaving what it should have been. Property investment once wrongly played is nothing more than an inflation-hedge, i.e., of no significant investment value.
  
  To grow a super pie is never easy.
  
  
• The Developer’s Finest
  
  Since the developer holds all the keys to super lucrative investment gains, shouldn’t all developers just build their properties for renting only? In fact, none of the developers I knew build to operate. Without the buyers paying for the developer’s curse, these developers are just as clueless as the next guy on property investment. These con-men, oops I meant developers, are just merely spinning and selling a fairy tale.

With this back drop, Asia is stuck with investment in real estate investment. In the eyes of its people, it must be the single most lucrative asset class. But, because the government, banks and developers are super aware of such lucrative returns, they will always choose to suppress its lucrative returns, by exacting very expensive starting-up costs. The developer’s curse is the most obvious stick.

Fiat Money

Fiat money is currency that a government has declared to be legal tender, but it is not backed by a physical commodity. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand rather than the value of the material that the money is made of.

Every government has her own fan boys. Fan boys are never cheap to maintain. They exact high payments every year. So in order to maintain power to the family, they have to print more fiat money to pay these fan boys. The end result is more fiat money are now chasing the same amount of assets, inflation becomes a natural thing.

The reason why I mentioned fiat money is because it is now almost impossible to value the property in question whether it is over-priced or under-value; whether the market has come down significantly enough so that it is time to jump in for a play. Nobody in the market would ever share their true-inflation-adjusted charts for our investment decision-making.

The Cunning Buyer

For every buyer and seller of the property, both would like to think that they have come off the winner. But, that’s no possible. To me, the only winner in the market is the cunning buyer, meaning the one with cash.

The explanation is simple. It is always true that after selling, the seller can never get back the same property type and size in the neighbourhood.

But, this doesn’t seem to be the case for the primary market. For the primary market, the developers will do all kinds of bells and whistles to attract the buyers. Once the buyers get hooked, it is a long term pay-off time as witnessed by my own failed investments, my friends’ failed investments and some of the peeps’ here. So better stick to the secondary resale market, if one were to survive in this game.

I know of many peeps out there must die-die buy something new. It is everyone's own choice. As for me, I just change (renovate) as much things I can afford lor. New or old, the land is always good.

Property as a store-of-value

As long as there is no gearing (i.e., borrowing from the bank), the property behaves exactly like a good store-of-value. It is only with gearing that the property provides some form of investment returns.

Property as an Investment

Now comes the real thing ... How can one profit, apart from being a store-of-value, from property investment?

Every year, the property, selling at say $1,000, without considering external factors, would go up by about 3-5%. Let’s take it as 5% for simpler numbers. This is usually due to the printing of fiat money by the government to pay their choir boys, i.e., inflation-inducing.

For most properties, the property seller would hawk his ware at 3% investment return, i.e., the new owner can rent the property out at $30 a year or $2.5 a month.

The new owner would buy it and after about 14 years, the property should be worth $2,000 or 2 times (5% compounded growth per year). Do note that the new owner after 14 years is no better off than when he first purchased it. Why? The answer is if he ever sells it then, he would never be able to buy back the same space at the same location at his selling price then. The buyer as we know it is not stupid, there must be a rainbow waiting for him at the end of the tunnel. All the seller gets is just a pile of useless fiat money.

In the meantime, the new owner may choose the most stupid option: staying in it himself. This is the choice the bank loves you to believe: owner-occupation. This is the least risk to the bank, which then implies the worst risk for the new owner. Factoring in costs like property tax and maintenance, the interest++ payable may be as high as 5% compounding per year, i.e., in the end, the new owner must fork out 2 times the property money to the bank.

If he chooses to sell on the 14th year again, the new owner is just merely getting back his instalment and interest payments to the bank. What a con job !!!

Therefore, any property investment must be done wisely. Otherwise, the property at best is a mere piggy bank for savings for old age. This is not investing, but pure saving. Investing has real returns, while saving is just a store-of-value.

Hence, to put it straight, if one were to buy any property for investment, he must not stay in it. The bank is again correct in this instance, the second or non-occupier property is called an investment property. You need to let the tenant pay for the interest due and payable. But, if the rental is only at 3% net, while the loan is at 5% gross, good luck to the new property owner.

There is never a straight answer to all things. Property investment is one of those things that we can’t simply work out the numbers in isolation.

Gearing

The only way to defeat the fiat money generation is to have gearing.

Gearing is important but over-gearing hurts bad. I used to have gearing of 70%, paid up 30%, but financial crisis likes to retrace more than 50%. Therefore, 30% payment is not good enough. I would recommend 40% payment, but if that is not possible for the first property, payment of at least 30% is recommended. Anything less is always risk-laden.

Do not however stay in the property in play, let the tenant and the market pay. Your only effort is to administer the rental.

Once the gearing ends (i.e., the bank loan is fully repaid), your investment quality ends too, and the gains of the property is reverted back to only pure store-of-value gains. So stay geared somehow.

Rent Seeking

Contrary to most bullshit that landed properties are hard to rent. Please ask those ass-holes to fuck off. Only condos are hard to rent, over and above that rental, one still needs to pay maintenance fee, insurance, quit rent and property tax. The end result: there is hardly any money left for instalment and interest payment (condo maintenance fee or gated charges are some of the worst con jobs by developers).

If one owns a landed property, not those gated and guarded ones (the locals don’t really care about that kind of things, except for owner-occupation), every 2 to 3 days, you will have a motorcyclist (all races) coming to the door step and asking for rent. Renting is very much a local phenomenon.

Of course, some would argue that rental seeking is a tough cookie. Who said making any real money is easy anyway? The tenants might just don’t pay up. Well, the trick is one should not try to rent so high (remember the investment is at least 10 years long). As long as the rental is not too high, the tenants fear eviction. They can’t get an alternative cheaper or cheap version to rent. On top of that, rental is very much a way-of-life for the locals. They don’t usually buy. Getting the tenant to pay on time is only a matter of practice. You will get it in no time.

Up to semi-ds, renting is bliss. Bungalows I am not so sure simply because I don’t ever own one. But, if I get a chance, I don’t think bungalow renting is that hard to settle too.

Prediction of Financial Crisis

This is the same as asking when is a good time to buy? I really don’t know. The government is also our enemy, we can’t predict when they will “save” the market or let the market “dies”.

The safest thing to do is to check one’s cash flow. If the cash-flow is comfortable for the next 10 years, by all means plunge right in. otherwise, it is just a pure gamble. Anything sold within 10 years are as good as zeros, because one didn’t allow time to heal any monetary mistake that one might have made during the zealous buying phase.

No Free Lunch

Investing in property is not free of effort …

The smarter cookies are usually those who buy old dilapidated properties and do them up for rentals.

The smartest cookies are those who buy old dilapidated properties and do them up to operate.

There is simply no free lunch. A simple buy-and-sell decision is not investing, it’s gambling.

The Game Ends

The investment game ends when the property is fully paid up. It will revert back to its store-of-value role. Without gearing, one is hard-pressed as how to overcome the inflationary pressure caused by the fiat money printing.

I don’t have any immediate solution. But, to continue borrowing from the bank carries investment risk. I guess there is little harm in borrowing 50% or less, but then I was once-upon-a-time hit by the financial crisis that retraced more than 50%. I really don’t quite know. I guess going forth to the temple helps. More than investment cunningness, we need luck too.

Selling Out

As the saying goes, there is only cunning buyer and no cunning seller. Unless the use of the cashing-out has a higher priority, such as illnesses, education or pushing-start the kids, selling-out is never a good decision. For that, I recommend switching, i.e., to sell off the freehold land and repurchase back another freehold land that is bigger than the current one and re-borrow from the bank. The reduced net proceeds can then be used for whatever the higher purpose. This needs planning well ahead of the crisis selling.

Patience

One is always rewarded for being patience. Never assume that one has missed the boat by not buying into the property. There are a million others to choose from.

Always do thorough research before plunging in, regardless of urgency or nearness to one’s parents.

Once a friend missed a 3.7ksf corner terrace for only rm180k, I thought that is it. But, after 5 more years of fervent searching, he managed to get another 3.4ksf semi-d for rm220k in a far superior location. Semi-ds always sell better than corner terraces. Overall, the market has moved almost double during that same 5 years, but the market rewards the patient buyer. In the short 2 years after, nothing was sold for less than rm500k in that area.

The Alternative

In the Asian context, there is really none. If political conditions allow, property investment remained one of the safest investments one can hope to retain.

I hope you guys enjoy the read …

in metta …

 

[FHBH12]

Re: Property Investment – A Store-of-Value or Capital Gain?

Property Investment – A Store-of-Value or Capital Gain?

Sigh … I have lost a shit load of text … Rewriting from memory is always tough. It’s a long read, hope you peeps can be patient.

Owner-Occupied Property

There is no debate on owner-occupied property; the bank and the developer would punish this group the worst, with maximum developer’s curse. The owner has to pay for all rates, outgoings, interests and inconveniences due in very poor amenities, until the new township is fully established.

The owner has to “get it back” through other things, such as living on firm land, keeping big huskies, serama ayams, miniature ducks, endangered tortoises or pygmy marmosets, drink non-shit water, anyhow park car, anyhow travel, anyhow play crackers and fire-works, eat 2-foot red groupers whole, eat running chickens, eat 1-kg frogs, eat 忘不了or hehehe … (pangolin? This one I haven’t tried yet) anything that moves. All these are done, without breaking one’s wallet.

Warren Buffet

Have you ever wondered why the greatest and very successful investor alive, Warren Buffet, doesn’t even bother to invest in real estate in the US and yet the richest Asian businessmen are all successful heavy property tycoons?

A very difficult question to answer, I shall try my best.

Preamble

• USA
  
  For the longest of time, going back for about 100 years or any few hundred years before, the property prices didn’t move a dime, apart from inflation (fiat money was only introduced in 1971). Therefore, if an investor was to invest in a property 100 years ago and if he were to liquidate it now, the property is priced exactly at its inflated price, not a dime more, i.e., it is just a perfect store-of-value.
  
  One can easily understand this: If one were to find the city too packed or expensive, the new buyer would have to consider the cheaper and bigger suburbs. Once the suburbs have grown into city-like, the newer buyers would have to consider further outlying estate. This however is not a problem, a 5-minute additional drive on the freeway in any direction, would have yielded millions of hectares for new development. This expansive land mass would definitely limit the property price growth to only that of inflation-hedge.
  
  Therefore, Warren Buffet living on such land would not have bothered to invest in such a boring investment instrument. Instead, he found early pleasure in insurance.
  
  
• Insurance – A More Exciting Game
  
  For insurance, it is based on cumulative power. The insurance company is involved in organizing this cumulative power and in the process reaps great benefit.
  
  For example, say, there are 10,000 cars on the road. On the average, say, the insurance claims amount to about $1m per month (which is a lot of money). Based on pure cost and effect, each car owner would only need to pay $100 per month ($1m / 10,000) to drive on the road. This is in fact the current going insurance rate in USA and Canada and the insurance company organizing this was even able to turn a profit as well. Imagine how much you have been paying sick cunts for the privilege to drive on the road?
  
  Most insurance companies are quite sick in their profit making, i.e., at least 80% on premium covers. That’s the reason why Warren Buffet is able to generate billions of insurance profits for doing almost nothing (only needed to pay out 20% of their cover collection) (Remember! The insurance company was trying to con you of your hard-earned money by claiming bonus generation from unused part of the premium! But when the time comes, they claim otherwise, assholes!).
  
  I will cite an easier example: The 4D betting. The first, second and third prizes are $3,500, $2,000 and $1,000, giving a total pay-out of $6,500 for each $1 bet. In 4D betting, 10,000 numbers from 0000 to 9999 can be bet. Assuming all 10,000 numbers were bet ($10,000), the total prize pay-out would be drawn ($6,500), giving a 35% profit to the house ($10,000 - $6,500 = $3,500). Insurance companies are worse; they easily curb their pay-out to less than 20% (giving 80% profit), thus making insurance companies one of the most profitable companies in the world. On top of that, they even have a battery of lawyers to help them not pay more than necessary.
  
  
• Asia – Massive Populace
  
  On the other hand, Asia is full of people, but land scarce. It is people after people. It is people everywhere. With people, comes demand for housing and food. Many of these assets are chased out of sync from its actual economic growth. Just look at Tokyo, Hong Kong and Bangalore, their property prices are out of this world. It simply can’t be sustained. When this happens, property can no longer be a good investment tool, but a mere store-of-value.
  
  Japan is going nowhere with her lost decades. So shall the cute little island in the south.
  
  One must have heard of super tycoons moving their investments elsewhere out of Asia, but, the Chinese was angry and decided to shut these super tycoons off their rightful gains. In the meantime, those investments that managed to be placed outside of Asia were also suffering from asset stagnation. Those new placements were not behaving what it should have been. Property investment once wrongly played is nothing more than an inflation-hedge, i.e., of no significant investment value.
  
  To grow a super pie is never easy.
  
  
• The Developer’s Finest
  
  Since the developer holds all the keys to super lucrative investment gains, shouldn’t all developers just build their properties for renting only? In fact, none of the developers I knew build to operate. Without the buyers paying for the developer’s curse, these developers are just as clueless as the next guy on property investment. These con-men, oops I meant developers, are just merely spinning and selling a fairy tale.

With this back drop, Asia is stuck with investment in real estate investment. In the eyes of its people, it must be the single most lucrative asset class. But, because the government, banks and developers are super aware of such lucrative returns, they will always choose to suppress its lucrative returns, by exacting very expensive starting-up costs. The developer’s curse is the most obvious stick.

Fiat Money

Fiat money is currency that a government has declared to be legal tender, but it is not backed by a physical commodity. The value of fiat money is derived from the relationship between supply and demand rather than the value of the material that the money is made of.

Every government has her own fan boys. Fan boys are never cheap to maintain. They exact high payments every year. So in order to maintain power to the family, they have to print more fiat money to pay these fan boys. The end result is more fiat money are now chasing the same amount of assets, inflation becomes a natural thing.

The reason why I mentioned fiat money is because it is now almost impossible to value the property in question whether it is over-priced or under-value; whether the market has come down significantly enough so that it is time to jump in for a play. Nobody in the market would ever share their true-inflation-adjusted charts for our investment decision-making.

The Cunning Buyer

For every buyer and seller of the property, both would like to think that they have come off the winner. But, that’s no possible. To me, the only winner in the market is the cunning buyer, meaning the one with cash.

The explanation is simple. It is always true that after selling, the seller can never get back the same property type and size in the neighbourhood.

But, this doesn’t seem to be the case for the primary market. For the primary market, the developers will do all kinds of bells and whistles to attract the buyers. Once the buyers get hooked, it is a long term pay-off time as witnessed by my own failed investments, my friends’ failed investments and some of the peeps’ here. So better stick to the secondary resale market, if one were to survive in this game.

I know of many peeps out there must die-die buy something new. It is everyone's own choice. As for me, I just change (renovate) as much things I can afford lor. New or old, the land is always good.

Property as a store-of-value

As long as there is no gearing (i.e., borrowing from the bank), the property behaves exactly like a good store-of-value. It is only with gearing that the property provides some form of investment returns.

Property as an Investment

Now comes the real thing ... How can one profit, apart from being a store-of-value, from property investment?

Every year, the property, selling at say $1,000, without considering external factors, would go up by about 3-5%. Let’s take it as 5% for simpler numbers. This is usually due to the printing of fiat money by the government to pay their choir boys, i.e., inflation-inducing.

For most properties, the property seller would hawk his ware at 3% investment return, i.e., the new owner can rent the property out at $30 a year or $2.5 a month.

The new owner would buy it and after about 14 years, the property should be worth $2,000 or 2 times (5% compounded growth per year). Do note that the new owner after 14 years is no better off than when he first purchased it. Why? The answer is if he ever sells it then, he would never be able to buy back the same space at the same location at his selling price then. The buyer as we know it is not stupid, there must be a rainbow waiting for him at the end of the tunnel. All the seller gets is just a pile of useless fiat money.

In the meantime, the new owner may choose the most stupid option: staying in it himself. This is the choice the bank loves you to believe: owner-occupation. This is the least risk to the bank, which then implies the worst risk for the new owner. Factoring in costs like property tax and maintenance, the interest++ payable may be as high as 5% compounding per year, i.e., in the end, the new owner must fork out 2 times the property money to the bank.

If he chooses to sell on the 14th year again, the new owner is just merely getting back his instalment and interest payments to the bank. What a con job !!!

Therefore, any property investment must be done wisely. Otherwise, the property at best is a mere piggy bank for savings for old age. This is not investing, but pure saving. Investing has real returns, while saving is just a store-of-value.

Hence, to put it straight, if one were to buy any property for investment, he must not stay in it. The bank is again correct in this instance, the second or non-occupier property is called an investment property. You need to let the tenant pay for the interest due and payable. But, if the rental is only at 3% net, while the loan is at 5% gross, good luck to the new property owner.

There is never a straight answer to all things. Property investment is one of those things that we can’t simply work out the numbers in isolation.

Gearing

The only way to defeat the fiat money generation is to have gearing.

Gearing is important but over-gearing hurts bad. I used to have gearing of 70%, paid up 30%, but financial crisis likes to retrace more than 50%. Therefore, 30% payment is not good enough. I would recommend 40% payment, but if that is not possible for the first property, payment of at least 30% is recommended. Anything less is always risk-laden.

Do not however stay in the property in play, let the tenant and the market pay. Your only effort is to administer the rental.

Once the gearing ends (i.e., the bank loan is fully repaid), your investment quality ends too, and the gains of the property is reverted back to only pure store-of-value gains. So stay geared somehow.

Rent Seeking

Contrary to most bullshit that landed properties are hard to rent. Please ask those ass-holes to fuck off. Only condos are hard to rent, over and above that rental, one still needs to pay maintenance fee, insurance, quit rent and property tax. The end result: there is hardly any money left for instalment and interest payment (condo maintenance fee or gated charges are some of the worst con jobs by developers).

If one owns a landed property, not those gated and guarded ones (the locals don’t really care about that kind of things, except for owner-occupation), every 2 to 3 days, you will have a motorcyclist (all races) coming to the door step and asking for rent. Renting is very much a local phenomenon.

Of course, some would argue that rental seeking is a tough cookie. Who said making any real money is easy anyway? The tenants might just don’t pay up. Well, the trick is one should not try to rent so high (remember the investment is at least 10 years long). As long as the rental is not too high, the tenants fear eviction. They can’t get an alternative cheaper or cheap version to rent. On top of that, rental is very much a way-of-life for the locals. They don’t usually buy. Getting the tenant to pay on time is only a matter of practice. You will get it in no time.

Up to semi-ds, renting is bliss. Bungalows I am not so sure simply because I don’t ever own one. But, if I get a chance, I don’t think bungalow renting is that hard to settle too.

Prediction of Financial Crisis

This is the same as asking when is a good time to buy? I really don’t know. The government is also our enemy, we can’t predict when they will “save” the market or let the market “dies”.

The safest thing to do is to check one’s cash flow. If the cash-flow is comfortable for the next 10 years, by all means plunge right in. otherwise, it is just a pure gamble. Anything sold within 10 years are as good as zeros, because one didn’t allow time to heal any monetary mistake that one might have made during the zealous buying phase.

No Free Lunch

Investing in property is not free of effort …

The smarter cookies are usually those who buy old dilapidated properties and do them up for rentals.

The smartest cookies are those who buy old dilapidated properties and do them up to operate.

There is simply no free lunch. A simple buy-and-sell decision is not investing, it’s gambling.

The Game Ends

The investment game ends when the property is fully paid up. It will revert back to its store-of-value role. Without gearing, one is hard-pressed as how to overcome the inflationary pressure caused by the fiat money printing.

I don’t have any immediate solution. But, to continue borrowing from the bank carries investment risk. I guess there is little harm in borrowing 50% or less, but then I was once-upon-a-time hit by the financial crisis that retraced more than 50%. I really don’t quite know. I guess going forth to the temple helps. More than investment cunningness, we need luck too.

Selling Out

As the saying goes, there is only cunning buyer and no cunning seller. Unless the use of the cashing-out has a higher priority, such as illnesses, education or pushing-start the kids, selling-out is never a good decision. For that, I recommend switching, i.e., to sell off the freehold land and repurchase back another freehold land that is bigger than the current one and re-borrow from the bank. The reduced net proceeds can then be used for whatever the higher purpose. This needs planning well ahead of the crisis selling.

Patience

One is always rewarded for being patience. Never assume that one has missed the boat by not buying into the property. There are a million others to choose from.

Always do thorough research before plunging in, regardless of urgency or nearness to one’s parents.

Once a friend missed a 3.7ksf corner terrace for only rm180k, I thought that is it. But, after 5 more years of fervent searching, he managed to get another 3.4ksf semi-d for rm220k in a far superior location. Semi-ds always sell better than corner terraces. Overall, the market has moved almost double during that same 5 years, but the market rewards the patient buyer. In the short 2 years after, nothing was sold for less than rm500k in that area.

The Alternative

In the Asian context, there is really none. If political conditions allow, property investment remained one of the safest investments one can hope to retain.

I hope you guys enjoy the read …

in metta …

Good read.

 

[ikani]

Re: Property Investment – A Store-of-Value or Capital Gain?

Good read.

Thank you for the kind words. May you and your kakis have full joy for the year of the rooster ...

 

[ikani]

A Sad Tale of Friendship Fools

A Sad Tale of Friendship Fools

Preamble

I have always wondered whether it is me who has a unique experience or I am nothing but another datum amongst thousands of similar tales.

I have mentioned before different people uses different weapons-of-choice to fight their battles.

To be frank, I used honesty as my weapon-of-choice. Whether I had better success in using it or worse failure, I don’t yet know. I find fooling others always invariably ended up counter-fooled by the people around me. So I have no alternative but to elect to be honest. It was not by preference, but the survival of it all.

In business, the wiser and far richer old folks always advocate honesty in dealing and protect that badge at all costs. I wondered why? Is it because they try to fool when they were younger and were invariably not consistently successful? Or as they aged, they advocated otherwise. You see. Fooling a victim requires lots of energy and cunning. One has to set up the scene, build that trap, lie-in-wait, spring that trap and collect the hunt. But not all hunted are weaklings. The trap might not always be big enough to entrap the bigger games totally. The bigger games might escape and return as hunters. That is why an alpha buffalo can escape the combined hunt of lionesses and may sometimes be lucky enough to kill one of the hunting lionesses in return. The hunter now becomes the hunted.

Honesty doesn’t require the setting up of any high-energy traps. I guess this is by far the laziest weapon-of-choice. I am by birth a lazy guy. Honesty as a weapon-of-choice is classified as a food-gatherer by walking, definitely not the most intense way of trying to make a good living, and I don’t have data that point towards a happy wanderer being a rich man.

Own Country

When I was tenderer then, so-called “friends” were all over me. I was riding at that time the dragon of property growth. Every “friend” pandered to my needs. Based on the length of “friendship”, I dished out personal loans to everyone. The longer the friendship, the more the gathered trust, the more I gave out my personal loans.

I remembered my best friend and wife (both extremely educated), of friendship of more than 10 years, took a $150k in total from me. When I finally down and out, as always happen to all fools of moneys, I was made a pauper once more. I called him over the phone and asked for a $500 to pass my days, he simply hanged up on me. I didn’t even get a cent from the $150k loan back. The amount of foolishness is measured by the length of friendship with that guy. What a revelation!

The same happened to all my non-blooded relations. When they borrow, they cried father and cried mother. When I asked them back for the moneys, they fucked my father and fucked my mother. All knowing full well that I would not do a thing to harm our non-blooded relations. Fuck them.

Fascinatingly, there was a surprising rainbow in it all. Those that I lent moneys to during business times, I was not yet an Ah Long then, returned all my moneys upon hearing my plight. Remarkably, these business people do honour their honesty badge at all costs. Interesting indeed …

Yellow Countries

Then I had a chance to play monopoly with the Hong Kongers, Taiwanese and Mainlanders. I thought as business people, we should all come together and play honest. How wrong! The Hong Kongers always thought that I am a fool.
The Taiwanese always thought that I am a square, while the Mainlanders played the sympathy card and asked for shares, without paying. Everyone claimed they had the connections to fuck the world for me. We should always sit down and contemplate (煙酒). LOL …

In these places, they are more yellow than I am. The reason why they are able to stay, survive and not bothered to go anywhere else, must be that they can stand the heat of the kitchen, while I can’t.

White Countries

I have no issue with the whites being nasty towards me. After all, these whites are nasty raiders of Indians before they claimed kingdom hood. What I can’t stand was the fact the semi-whites were the great scroungers of the new yellow immigrants. These semi-whites are yellows who have migrated before me to these white countries. Since they can’t con the earthworm white men, they just turn and con instead the just landed blurred yellows.

Brown Countries

Having failed my attempt in the white countries to earn the right to stay, I am now landed happily in a brown country. I wouldn’t wish to associate these browns as Indians in the white countries; after all they have accommodated me into their brown country. I am eternally grateful to their hospitality. Hopefully we can all benefit mutually and prosperously. There need not always be a winner-takes-it-all scenario, but maybe a small-win-big-win in all cases.

I also find the yellows here friendlier than all the other places, simply because they have all arrived. They drive their cute little half trucks, Toyotas and beemers, while I drive my protons and peroduas. They felt great and non-threatened by my presence. Super … Kekeke … They still don’t know the python in me … Just kidding …

A Plead to Win the War

Many have tried the white countries and managed to survive happily and stayed. I am happy for them.

As for South America, Africa and even Middle East (my hat’s off for the gentleman who murdered someone in the island and escaped not to paradise but Israel and stayed there for 40 years), the choice is currently too hard for many islanders.

What’re left are only brown countries and semi-brown-yellow countries. Do come together as islanders to forge a common alliance, not to fight to kill, but fight to survive in these countries. It is not easy to win trust, but there is surely no need for one to celebrate other’s misfortune in a foreign land.

Within the simple rules of the game, if there is no serious challenge to one’s survival, I do plead that we give small leeway to anyone along the way. There is no need to exact painful punishments for adventurous wanderers, after all, the market will always punish those who are not hard-working in their home-work.

A datum Point

I don’t yet know if my experience is any time more unique than the market’s. If it is, then I apologise for the long read. If it is not, then I do hope you be a little kinder to those who are just starting out to be have a better chance in brown countries, namely, of course, yours truly.

in metta …

 

[denso61]

Re: A Sad Tale of Friendship Fools

Thank you for sharing your views.
Dedicate my first post in this forum to you
cheers.

 

[ikani]

A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

What is wealth, 財? I guess it’s the amount of money or capital one has at any given time. No one can tell how one ends and with how much. It’s only with 盖棺定论 (after the fall of the last leaf) that one can decide whether one’s strategy was indeed the best for that time and era.

There is also the discussion about getting that first pot of gold, 第一桶金.

It is also interesting that the computer nowadays, with the help of artificial intelligence design, can defeat the best poker players in town. Not only was the machine able to bluff the best players, not in just one hand, but through a generation of multiple hands. The world is definitely getting more and more sophisticated.

To play more in this game, one has to be even more cunning. Are we therefore up to mark?

In fact the evidence stared right into our minds, we have to be organized and quickly too.

Footnote: For newton's problem of 2 heavenly bodies, the computer was comfortable in solving it. But, adding more heavenly bodies into the fry, no super computers can ever hope to solve these equations. So by getting organized (more than 2), we are adding more dimensions to the problem, we might finally earn ourselves a chance to win.

Preamble

I used to be a little rich, i.e., I got my 第一桶金 but I lost it all in the same breath and now, I am pissed poor. I am still stuck in the first generation game in a foreign land. Therefore, I am definitely not qualified to discuss such matters as 財 or 第一桶金. On the other hand, maybe from my failures, one can still take it as a wrong method in acquiring wealth.

第一桶金

My first pot of gold was simple. I was born in the right time and in the right place. I managed to ride the dragon of property growth on a little island of limited space. I have no connections and I don’t need any. Neither did I need intelligence to execute any buy-and-sell orders for houses. I just exchanged one house with another. In between, I got to keep tons of money and spend like there was no tomorrow. To me then, tomorrow will come rich and fast again.

I ate the best and I travelled the furthest. I was the envy of my 豬朋狗友 (“friends”).

Fall, I must and my pot of gold disappeared as quickly as I first found it.

Many Example Cases

When I looked around me friends, I noticed more or less the same pattern repeated itself. I then realized I was never brilliant, but just a by-product of good times. In the end, I was sanded away like a dirt speck on a shining granite top without a trace. I had made no mark in life.

Cash Flow

However, I did learn one good lesson – Cash Flow. I realized without a good source of cash flow, be it how minute, no projects can take off. It is only with cash flow that one can survive through the sands of time and be strong in the end.

橫財

Meanwhile, I have consulted many clever entrepreneurs. They all raised the same issue: If you don’t know anyone, then you have to be illegal to start. Another lesson too.

The same thing was said during my recent visit to high monks. The first pot of gold in essence means 橫財. No one can get their first pot of gold through proper channels and keep it. Otherwise, the pot of gold would dissipate just as quickly.

If one were to go through the list of Asian tycoons, one would conclude that most, if not all, had a shady sleight-of-hand to start. I wouldn’t want to state it too clearly as it involves too much angst.

Even in the technology world, the same thing occurs. Just look at Grab, Uber, crowdfunding, bitcoin or online casino, even Whatsapp (all telcos wanted to ban it). Of course, they all claim to be doing disruptive technologies, but to me, it is just plain illegal in the current eyes of law. The government or the current top players in the field just don’t like it.

hehehe ... now, in the current eyes of law, one can get locked up for 1 month for police questioning without trial, I think, instead of 48 hours, as previously suggested. Please don't ask me why? This is now the law of the land.

Be Happy

How much can one harness this 橫財 is anybody’s guess. However, it is really of no serious harm in thinking a little more cunningly.

in metta …

 

[ikani]

Re: A Sad Tale of Friendship Fools

... Dedicate my first post in this forum to you ...

It is indeed my pleasure to receive your compliments. I am sure you are blessed with a thousand more fortunes based on your first step.

in metta ...

 

[FHBH12]

Re: A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

What is wealth, 財? I guess it’s the amount of money or capital one has at any given time. No one can tell how one ends and with how much. It’s only with 盖棺定论 (after the fall of the last leaf) that one can decide whether one’s strategy was indeed the best for that time and era.

There is also the discussion about getting that first pot of gold, 第一桶金.

It is also interesting that the computer nowadays, with the help of artificial intelligence design, can defeat the best poker players in town. Not only was the machine able to bluff the best players, not in just one hand, but through a generation of multiple hands. The world is definitely getting more and more sophisticated.

To play more in this game, one has to be even more cunning. Are we therefore up to mark?

In fact the evidence stared right into our minds, we have to be organized and quickly too.

Footnote: For newton's problem of 2 heavenly bodies, the computer was comfortable in solving it. But, adding more heavenly bodies into the fry, no super computers can ever hope to solve these equations. So by getting organized (more than 2), we are adding more dimensions to the problem, we might finally earn ourselves a chance to win.

Preamble

I used to be a little rich, i.e., I got my 第一桶金 but I lost it all in the same breath and now, I am pissed poor. I am still stuck in the first generation game in a foreign land. Therefore, I am definitely not qualified to discuss such matters as 財 or 第一桶金. On the other hand, maybe from my failures, one can still take it as a wrong method in acquiring wealth.

第一桶金

My first pot of gold was simple. I was born in the right time and in the right place. I managed to ride the dragon of property growth on a little island of limited space. I have no connections and I don’t need any. Neither did I need intelligence to execute any buy-and-sell orders for houses. I just exchanged one house with another. In between, I got to keep tons of money and spend like there was no tomorrow. To me then, tomorrow will come rich and fast again.

I ate the best and I travelled the furthest. I was the envy of my 豬朋狗友 (“friends”).

Fall, I must and my pot of gold disappeared as quickly as I first found it.

Many Example Cases

When I looked around me friends, I noticed more or less the same pattern repeated itself. I then realized I was never brilliant, but just a by-product of good times. In the end, I was sanded away like a dirt speck on a shining granite top without a trace. I had made no mark in life.

Cash Flow

However, I did learn one good lesson – Cash Flow. I realized without a good source of cash flow, be it how minute, no projects can take off. It is only with cash flow that one can survive through the sands of time and be strong in the end.

橫財

Meanwhile, I have consulted many clever entrepreneurs. They all raised the same issue: If you don’t know anyone, then you have to be illegal to start. Another lesson too.

The same thing was said during my recent visit to high monks. The first pot of gold in essence means 橫財. No one can get their first pot of gold through proper channels and keep it. Otherwise, the pot of gold would dissipate just as quickly.

If one were to go through the list of Asian tycoons, one would conclude that most, if not all, had a shady sleight-of-hand to start. I wouldn’t want to state it too clearly as it involves too much angst.

Even in the technology world, the same thing occurs. Just look at Grab, Uber, crowdfunding, bitcoin or online casino, even Whatsapp (all telcos wanted to ban it). Of course, they all claim to be doing disruptive technologies, but to me, it is just plain illegal in the current eyes of law. The government or the current top players in the field just don’t like it.

hehehe ... now, in the current eyes of law, one can get locked up for 1 month for police questioning without trial, I think, instead of 48 hours, as previously suggested. Please don't ask me why? This is now the law of the land.

Be Happy

How much can one harness this 橫財 is anybody’s guess. However, it is really of no serious harm in thinking a little more cunningly.

in metta …

Good insight. For most, the difficult part is landing that first pot of gold. Thereafter the key to maintaining or growing one's wealth is cash flow (on top of good health).

 

[denso61]

Re: A Sad Tale of Friendship Fools

It is indeed my pleasure to receive your compliments. I am sure you are blessed with a thousand more fortunes based on your first step.

in metta ...

keep writing my friend.
enjoyed reading your nicely summarized lessons of life.

 

[ikani]

黑社会

Sorry to peeps who have responded, do give me some time to discuss issues raised?

黑社会

Let’s do a different topic.

Again I am not too well-versed with this topic but it is still fun to raise it as a topic for discussion.

In that little island, the underground elements were almost eliminated totally by the blue uniform for a good 50 years. OR is it true; in my observation, the 黑社会 is very much alive but exist in a different form. The officials have now become the new-age 黑社會. They anyhow charge interest and anyhow take away people’s home or assets under the guise of so-called “in the name of law”. Fuck them! In a way, they are way more draconian. The landlord and official are now one and the same, far worse than the good old 黑社會 where there might still have some respite when a good official comes on board. But, on that island, all things are now lost.

黑社會、黑幫、黑道，在意大利稱為黑手黨，中國又稱為有組織犯罪集團，是自外於規範社會的組織，卻存在著內部獨有的社會規範，組織上通過秘密結社凝聚力量以為基本組成，以傳統人際關係和結誼為中堅，以社團利益相關者為核心的組織，這些組織集團更可以構建龐大的地下社會與政治力量。

黑社會不從事傳統生產營生方法，收入來源一般涉及暴力、色情和毒品等犯罪行為，行政當局對這些商業行為大多定為非法，不過組織通常可以透過法律漏洞的形式存續下去。黑社會各社團之間也經常為利益而展開暴力冲突，影響社會安寧。由於黑社會生存於規範社會之外，卻以規範社會為利基，這種影子政府的存於使各地政府均致力打擊以避免失去威信。有些黑社會勢力已經超過規範社會的政府，如果前者較有效率，後者會逐漸成為擺設。同時政府又會與種種方法以黑社會合作，兩者形成一個完整的社會，而黑社會是其陰暗面。其它组织，包括国家、军队、警察和公司——可能会使用有组织犯罪的方式来经营，但是他们的权利与前者正规的社会体制不同。一种倾向是将有组织犯罪与其它形式的犯罪分别开来，如白领犯罪、金融犯罪、政治犯罪、战争罪和叛国罪。这些分析目前还不清楚，在学术上依然存在争论。例如，在失敗国家中，由于暴力冲突或极度贫困，政府无法提供基本功能，如教育、安全、统御，黑社会、统御和战争此起彼伏。词汇黑手党议会 (Parliamentary Mafiocracy) .LOL. .Sound Familiar?. 常被指代民主国家的政治、社会、经济体制被少数家族和经济寡头所控制。

黑社会 is very much alive in here. I was invited to gatherings where there were at least 5 黑社会 members being honoured as Datos. The gatherings were easily a place where the various gangs will discuss their next projects and how the spoils and territories are to be divided.

There are tattooed ones and there are also many non-tatooed ones. I was being placed in the more modern group where the projects are more money-related rather than the more physical ones like wine, woman and song.

Off-the-grid projects like farming, mining and logging were also discussed. It showed how deeply these gangs are involved in the lives of the country folks. They are very, very, very well-connected.

Drug is never on the topics as these gatherings are too public.

I am not at liberty to discuss any greater details here as I am sure this forum is monitored by you-know-who.

All things said, if you peeps have anything that needs to settle and the usual legal means have all been exhausted, contact me and I will connect you guys up for a meeting. I am only an introducer so a simple ang-bao is good order-of-the-day (This ang-bao practice is a serious ritual among the group).

Here, things are different and more traditional. It is not unexpected that many things can be settled through mere discussions among the feuding groups.

in metta …

 

[Charlie258]

Re: Where is Home?

Thanks very much for sharing. Very informative writings.

 

[ikani]

Re: A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

… For most, the difficult part is landing that first pot of gold …

Yes. I do agree that landing that first pot of gold is difficult. But, everywhere I go, I noticed everyone seemed to have landed that pot of gold too. In fact, all are behaving like little hurried squirrels stowing away their tiny little food packs ready for the celebrative winter season. Most of these squirrels don’t seem to be too involved in building any more new nests. It seemed to me that getting that first pot of gold is not as difficult as one imagines, but the second pot of gold … hmmm … seems way tougher.

I might venture that getting that second pot of gold is truly the finesse, simply because I see most squirrels are spending way too much time protecting their first nest and no longer interested in building further alternatives.

Who am I to comment as I am pissed poor in a foreign land, clinging tightly to my tiny little straws.

I thought there is always a simple way to that first pot of gold. Nowadays, youngsters are spending way too much on credit and not saving enough. These over-spendings and interests bleed them dearly. Their first pot of gold has to be kicked further and further down the road.

… Thereafter the key to maintaining or growing one's wealth is cash flow (on top of good health) ...

I thank you big, big for telling me the truth.

The Elusive Second Pot of Gold

Many “investors” thought that by paying only 10% down for the purchase of a property and the bank taking up the rest of the 90% as loan is a clever move. They even shout that due to this high loan quantum, they must be the bank’s most favoured customers. How interesting! I wouldn’t say they are wrong and I am right, after all, which bank is willing to lend to a pissed poor chap like me. These “investors” must therefore have 20:20 eye-sight.

After 2-3 years, the property in its normal course might have gone up by 20%. If the property is liquidated then, the “investor” would have taken home 20%+10% = 30%, an IRR (internal rate of return) of 55% over 2.5 years. A number even Warren Buffet would be more than proud.

After the initial gain, the “investor” becomes greedy. He thought if he has an initial capital of $1m (his first pot of gold) and if he were to buy 10 properties of $1m each, each requiring only $100k (10%) in down-payment. He then ropes in his relatives, friends and acquaintances into his get-rich-fast scheme and sweet-talks the bank into lending him. Of course, the bank agrees, after all, there are so many guarantors for the bank to play backside with.

Again, after 2-3 years, when these properties have gained a handsome 20%, the “investor” would have gained a total of $3m in 2-3 short years. What a lovely finesse!

But, the “investor” has forgotten that every 7 years or so, the market will play truant. That is when the market, instead of growing, will contract, sometimes by 50%-60%. The bank starts to panic and demands increase in collateral. The end result is always a full liquidation by bank fire-sale.

The “investor” has lost his first pot of gold. He is no investor, but a fool playing out his political masters’ game. As it is usual that the political masters will sell first before implementing tightening measures and buy back later before easing them again. This is their trick-of-the-trade of making money from power.

I was once one of those “investors”, destined to be eaten as fresh sashimi by the market manipulators. There is nothing to gloat about.

I believe it is always the pursuit of the second pot of gold that causes true pain. Therefore, be warned, patience is key.

The Cash-Flow Game

I am no longer in the passive investor mode. It is deemed too tiring. I hate to collect rent from tenants. Some of them are such assholes that they have 10 zillion cooking excuses to not pay rent.

I have also long given up on exacting high rentals. Just a below-average rent will do just fine. It cuts the headaches of collection and finding new tenants when they abscond.

Unless I know, based on current cash-flows, I can afford to pay instalments in full for the next 10 years, I am not going to venture into buying another property.

Lack-of-cash-flow has an additional issue, i.e., it is a real cancer-causing dioxin coursing my body.

Fortunately, there are still great properties available on the cheap here. So, I guess, I still can have some fun left.

The Outlook of 2017

Just by walking around in a few Aeons, the current big boxes, I can’t help but to notice that quite a bit of places are boarded up and no new takers are in sight. Driving along the streets, I also can’t help but to further notice quite a number of shops are for rent/sale. Vacant, dilapidated and huge shophouse hotels are up for quick sale. Even the auction sites are re-presenting unsold properties with new marked-down of 50%.

Many shops after the euphoria of the Chinese New Year are now conducting super sale. I used to get sale items at rm30 per pop, now the same things are going at rm15-20. I fast-hand-fast-leg grabbed all and I am done shopping for the rest of the year. Even tiles were used to be priced at rm5-10 psf, now are going at rm1.5-2.0. Granite tiles were selling at @!##$@$%#%^$&^%* rm20-400 psf are now selling at rm7.5-9.5. Toilet bowls and faucets used to be rm800-1,000, now selling only at rm350. Serve them right. Luckily, I was and am still pissed poor, I can choose my tiles slowly. Patience pays.

Even fish was selling at rm85-90 per kg, now is back down to rm40-50.

Meat is now back on the menu.

My prediction for the year of 2017: It is going to be a wonderful year with lots of fire-sales.

It is therefore of no harm if you wish to accumulate one to two more properties as private collection.

Even gals are less demanding. They used to charge my friend rm3k per month for maintenance. Now the same grade only charges rm1k per month with occasional overseas shopping.

I hope you will find happiness in the year, 2017.

keep writing my friend.
enjoyed reading your nicely summarized lessons of life.

Thank you for the great compliment. I am sure you will find favour amongst the like-minded.

If we are able to conduct a good debate, then the effect would be way more pronounced. Along the way, we will meet many of the naysayers, take heart as no words can hurt us physically, but putting our capital in the wrong place does. Not only do we need to undo the mistake made, we still have to make good the lost capital.

Therefore, we need to conduct ourselves skilfully. We shall never take heed to anger or pursue the way of hurt. Many naysayers will by way of persuasion sing sweet nothings to us so that we should be contented and not pursue further the untrodden path or walk in the least predictable way. By so doing, the naysayers have many things to gain. Their political masters would be most pleased with these naysayers and reward them with crumbs falling off their high table. The naysayers hope one day they too could elevate themselves to the level of their masters, not knowing that a running dog remains a dog till the day it expires.

Sometimes I wondered what gains these naysayers obtained. Or is it just a good self-mind-fuck telling themselves that they were right all along and thanking their souls for not having tried to venture beyond.

Each and every one of us has a choice. Whether to push or to stay is indeed totally circumstantial and personal. There is no right or wrong. Just wait for the last leaf to fall to decide the fortune of one’s strategy.

Stay narrow and stay focussed. The prize is always there waiting for those who fight.

If I die pissed poor, so be it. At least, I dare say I tried my best and did it my way ...

in metta …

 

[sgcount]

Re: A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

I've really enjoyed reading your posts, ikani. They are full of insight and sometimes, inspiration!

But the points raised are generally non-specific. I wonder if you mind sharing exactly how you made your pots of gold. It could be personal. You don't have to state names or full details. But roughly, maybe what you invested in?

There are probably many here who are in their late 40's onwards. A good handful are in their 50's and 60's who are planning for retirement. I understand back in the '80s and '90s, there are lots of investment opportunities. One could be a non-graduate but could afford to own a car, pay off a large 5-room flat in SG within 10 years, and slowly, upgrade to a condo. Along the way, one could scoop up another property for investment.

I've spoken to a late 50's taxi-driver with little education but he owned an extra property for investment and could also send one of his children overseas for university education!

Those good old days are gone now. Young graduates in their late 20's and 30's these days take 25 years to pay off their tiny $500k 4-room flats, many can't afford a car and buying even a small condo for investment is totally out of the question.

In that light, what would be your advice for people in this group to make money? Is the pot of gold elusive, or is there still hope in today's context?

Yes, there are those young successful ones who go into entrepreneurship and are raking in millions. But I think it's been overhyped. We always hear 99% of successful stories in the media. They hardly publish those who fail. I think it's fair for me to say for every 1 successful story we hear, there are 9 others that fail badly.

Appreciate your kind sharing as usual! Thank you.

 

[FHBH12]

Re: A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

With rising cost of living and low GDP growth rates over the next decade in Singapore, it is much harder for young generation to land that first pot of gold by themselves. They must be brilliantly smart if they stay in Singapore, dare to venture overseas or rely on their parents to give them a head-start. The regional countries provide a much better window of opportunities for the next 20-30 years as they re-trace the rapid growth phase of Singapore in the 1970s to 1990s i.e. the golden era of Singapore.

 

[sgcount]

Re: A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

Yes that's what I feel too. But going regional, one has to be brave and really study the businesses and markets. They carry a lot more risks. Nothing like investing in one's own home/backyard.

Right now, from my observation, those who invest in Singapore are mainly the very rich ones. The young or even middle age commoners in their 30's and 40's are finding it very hard or impossible.

Back in the '80s and '90s in SG, even an ordinary folk who saved enough over say a 10-15 year period can dream of upgrading to a condo. Today, I call it downgrading. They are so much smaller than in the past, come with a ridiculous huge balcony, tiny kitchen and most don't even come with a utility or storeroom. Yet what puzzles me is many are still snapping them up despite all the additional taxes like ABSD, etc.

Is Singapore really that strong and on a bull run in the next 10-20 years?

With rising cost of living and low GDP growth rates over the next decade in Singapore, it is much harder for young generation to land that first pot of gold by themselves. They must be brilliantly smart if they stay in Singapore, dare to venture overseas or rely on their parents to give them a head-start. The regional countries provide a much better window of opportunities for the next 20-30 years as they re-trace the rapid growth phase of Singapore in the 1970s to 1990s i.e. the golden era of Singapore.

 

[ikani]

Re: Where is Home?

Sorry peeps … I have been busy trying to make ends meet. It is brilliant that our debate has finally gotten underway … Do keep it up and please give me time to respond to the issues raised …

In addition, I still have many other topics to cover. LOL … what an attention-seeking whore I am …

Just a note. I am not very productive, can only manage one essay per week … sorry …

Thanks very much for sharing. Very informative writings.

A big Thank You too to you for being kind.

I am sure your wise words would alert people like me in avoiding @!#@^%$^&%&*^(* pitfalls.

 

[ikani]

Re: A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

Sorry peeps, it seems more logical to debate bro FHBH12’s issues raised first, than to debate bro sgcount’s earlier posts. I hope I am given that liberty and overindulgence.

Bro FHBH12 deals with the big picture. So it is indeed important to drill down the big picture first, before settling on bro sgcount’s individualities.

Sun Tzu (孫子) was a war specialist in around 500 b.c. and he wrote the art of war. His strategic ideas were born out of pure understanding of human greed and therefore, it must still be extremely useful till today. But, history told us that his legs were lobed off afterwards, so please use his stratagems with care.

His first chapter was 始計, the beginning stratagem is of overarching importance.

孫子曰：兵者，國之大事，死生之地，存亡之道，不可不察也。… 將聽吾計，用之必勝，留之；將不聽吾計，用之必敗，去之。… 兵者，詭道也。… 夫未戰而廟算勝者，得算多也；未戰而廟算不勝者，得算少也。多算勝，少算不勝，而況於無算乎？吾以此觀之，勝負見矣。

He said, “War is important to a nation. It is a matter of life and death. It is the way to survival or to destruction. So study it. ... A general who listens to my principles, and applies them, will surely be victorious; keep him. A general who does not listen to my principles, and does not apply them, will surely be defeated; remove him. … Warfare is the Way of Deception. … Before doing battle, one calculates in the temple and will win, because many calculations were made; before doing battle, one calculates in the temple but will lose, because few calculations were made. Many calculations mean victory; few calculations mean no victory; then how much worse when there are no calculations? From this perspective I can clearly predict victory or defeat.”

If nations are won or lost by life-and-death battles, what more an individual? Therefore, one must treat every other individual with awe and respect. It is a life-and-death problem sum.

Those who listen to good counsel, good for him; but, on the other hand, one exists in his own perils if he decides to take ill advice or worse, no advice.

Finally, if one studies hard on the problem sum in a temple and makes many calculations, he would battle well and not perish. [hehehe … I have a temple too in KL, come and visit me if you like to work on our problem sums.]

Therefore, I would like to declare here that bro FHBH12 is a fierce-some temple calculator. He studies his targets very carefully. He reads widely and reproduces some of the most important issues at hand to share in the forum. But, how many of us here understood and appreciated his hard work? After a while, if you notice, he has stopped commenting on his highlighted articles. He has kept his real temple calculations to himself. Sigh …

Like the good old saying: We better learn to carry his “balls” well and make him happy, so that he in turn will bless us with more nuggets of wisdom.

Let’s now work on his nuggets of wisdom …

With rising cost of living and low GDP growth rates over the next decade in Singapore, it is much harder for young generation to land that first pot of gold by themselves ...

When I read this, my tears rolled non-stop. It reminds me of my home, i.e., my birth place. Interestingly, I don’t feel any attachment to ah-tiong land. So, I finally realized home is usually where I was born and grew up in.

It is indeed sad that within a mere 50 years, that island has moved from fucking to fucken. As what bro FHBH12 said, the climate of low GDP growth is upon the islanders. The destiny of Japan’s lost decades is inevitable.

People are falling off like flies. My closest blood relations contacted non-hereditary cancers at tender age of 30+, some even going for their round 2 in cancer treatment. Obituaries are announcing deaths at 60-70s, seldom 90s and above. These deaths were originating from drinking shit water, radiation-laced food and extreme stress-inducing “pig”eon living. My friends are now either can’t walk upright, limbs not functioning, heart failures, bed-ridden or mind-blown-off.

I wonder how long can these last?

As in all cases, I took the road to exit.

… They must be brilliantly smart if they stay in Singapore, dare to venture overseas or rely on their parents to give them a head-start ...

Indeed, there can only be 2 options for the young ones – in or out (option 1 and 3 are just called “in”.).

Brilliantly Smart or Parents Give Headstarts

Bro FHBH12 is pulling out legs here. There is no such thing as brilliantly smart. There is only normal or not-normal. Everyone I met so far, including the road sweeper is damn intelligent. I was coned not once but many times by road sweepers, auntie paper collectors, tissue sellers, hawkers, taxi drivers, durian sellers, fish mongers all over the world. So, there is no such thing as brilliantly endowed. If the parents are well-connected or rich (also means well-connected), then the kiddos need not run road. Otherwise, the only option is really to run road as soon as practicable.

Run Road

When I ran road to a white country, I came across many interesting characters. Maybe I just highlight 3 examples:

(1) Bubble Tea Queen - When she first started at the tender age of 20, she landed in the white country with no friends. She couldn’t even afford to buy a pillow or bed. She would face all four walls and cry herself to bed. Her weekly conversations with her family back in ah-tiong land were mostly non-verbal. She just cried until her credit ran out. She worked in all types of low jobs.

25 years later, she managed not a big thing but 3 bubble tea outlets (btw she’s no Taiwanese). Her income can afford her to have a huge fully paid bungalow and 4 other bungalows on rental.

Shark fins and abalones every day.

She now drives a new Lexus for pleasure.

With hard work and perseverance, as long as one works harder than the whites, one can always make it in the vast white land. But, the price to pay is 25 years of one’s solitary life, i.e., the town has nothing but snow.

(2) Hotelier - This guy also came to white land at age 20, he worked hard in building rail roads. His life was tougher than an iron nail. He needed to brave sub-75 – 100degC weather every day. He was lucky not to kana frost bites. Again, after 35 years, he now owns 3 x 300-rooms hotel chain in the remote towns. His kids went to the best schools in the west. Unfortunate for him, his wealth came from exploiting Asians. As said, he was without education, therefore he can only con new Asian immigrants. He pays them regularly at more than ½ x rate off the minimum wage. Of late, like many smarty-pants immigrants before him, his company is now under strict account reporting to the revenue authority. If he further mismanages, he might lose everything.

(3) Foodie – He came with his family 18 years ago. He worked in odd jobs and after 18 years, he can be classified as a millionaire in assets. Now he expressed that, white land is too boring and he’s packing for home in ah-tiong land. His 3 daughters have already moved, due to lack of jobs. The daughters were fully educated in white land, but still fail to blend in. He expressed regrets in moving to white land in the first place. He and his family couldn’t merge into the white environment. There are no good paying jobs, no matter how one tries. All good paying jobs are given straight to the whites. The yellows or semi-yellows have no chance.

Shit! I am now back to square one. LOL … I really can’t stand 9 months of snow anyway, so I better run road once more. But definitely, not back to the island, but to an incredible place called Malaysia. Malaysia has land, lot of it, so for the next 5-10 generations, she is good to play.

Therefore, what bro FHBH12 is trying to imply here is as long as one is willing to sink 18-35 years’ worth of time in a nice big country, he/she would be well rewarded.

As for those stayers, I have this to say: I am extremely biased, of course. For a family to be healthy, the family needs to produce 2.1 kiddos. One simply cannot produce less, otherwise the family tree will diminish to zero. But, property being so expensive in that little island, I really doubt any reasonable family can afford to buy 2 houses or should we called them “pig”eon holes. If that is the case, for each progressing generation, the property assets would be more and more constrained. Like bro FHBH12, I truly like to ask that question – how much stress or punishment can one take.

Fuck it! I am not so charitable as bro FHBH12, providing choice. I just skip town and have fun. As mentioned, if I die trying and still pissed poor, why not? I am happily dying at old age. I have easily bought an additional 20 good years of life than you-know-who.

… The regional countries provide a much better window of opportunities for the next 20-30 years as they re-trace the rapid growth phase of Singapore in the 1970s to 1990s i.e. the golden era of Singapore.

Aiyoh! Gentlemen, please read this line 100 times. Unlike bro FHBH12, I was stupid enough to burn 6 good years of my life in white land, thinking through what’s next. In the end, I must return to this region, none wiser. Instead, bro FHBH12 zoomed straight in and understood that only the regional countries are providing the best bang for our money.

Bro FHBH12 understands that as long one is willing to work hard in a foreign land, he/she would be a bad ass in about 25 years, which is true. Every hawker in Malaysia has kiddos in UK, States and Australia doing varsity. That’s how rich these ah-tiongs have become. No need for higher education but still drive big cars, live big house and grow foreign dogs.

Noticed in my highlighted examples, all of them couldn’t integrate even after 35 years of stay, all are currently spending longer and longer holidays back in ah-tiong land.

Some people I knew in Holland are also coming back to Malaysia for old age. Just the other day, I met a very, very nice gentleman from the States. He told me he made a super big mistake. He bought a super nice bungalow in Kulai, but couldn’t have time to cut the grass. Now, the grass is taller than him and his wife. LOL … I asked him to employ a maid lor. He said he is so used to staying in the States without a maid, that he finds the maid idea revolting. LOL … Well, luckily my stint in white land was not too long. I can still choose to live like a maharaja, without feeling guilty of human exploitation.

Summary

I must apologise if I do sound biased, I too must mind-fuck myself that I am on the right track. This is a personal choice. Others may choose and do otherwise.

With a few lines, bro FHBH12 has effectively summarized the key issues plaguing all the islanders today. He has raised interesting options for each and every one to take.

I must say a big thank you again to bro FHBH12 for being so generous in telling us the truth. Otherwise, we would be forever dreaming and drilling into impossibilities. The question is real, but the truthful answers are few. LOL … So we all better know what to do when we finally get to meet big brother FHBH12. Haunt him like hell to get these answers, man.

in metta …

 

[FHBH12]

Re: A Case of Switching Wealth, 財

Thanks for the compliments. I don't think I deserve that. I'm just sharing what I think investors and home-buyers should watch out for or find out more when buying properties. The same piece of information can be positive or negative to a purchaser, depending on his/her intention, holding power, expectation etc.

 

[ikani]

The Cash-Flow Game

The Cash-Flow Game

Preamble

The time has come to call a spade, a spade. This is an exact replica of bro FHBH12 of what he has said all along. I am just detailing it in such a way that it is not as cryptic as what bro FHBH12 has planned. Bro FHBH12 always loves to say that for the same piece of news, there are always two ways of looking at it, positively or negatively and it depends on the person’s current disposition. LOL …

For that, I must apologise for doing it (the decryption, after the encryption) without first asking his permission to elaborate on things in such magnified detail. To the knowledge-able ones, the world is never cryptic. But, it might not be their purpose to explain it in plain vanilla to the rest of the world. LOL …

• The First Pot of Gold

To crack that myth of the first pot of gold, it is just simply the cash-flow. With cash-flow, one can buy his first property and the bank is happy to lend the money for the purchase. With cash-flow, there is no fear that the bank will seize the property during harder times, which must come sometime soon. After a couple of “peaceful” years, the property would have appreciated several bounce. If one were to liquidate that property for cash. Viola! One has gotten his first pot of gold and he may deal with it in whatever ways he deems fit. One may now choose to buy 2 properties, instead of one or a bigger one. Let’s not discuss the “joy” of high risk-taking for the time-being.

• The Great 1940s’ Migration

The great migration of the yellows to Borneo was simply due to cash-flow. When the yellow dear comrade leader decided that all peasants must eat tree bark and contribute their forks and spoons to the great iron militarization, our pissed poor forefathers with zero education have no choice but to plan to leave or they would die in certainty. If our forefathers had instead joined the commie party and sung praises to them, cash flow and property assets would have come naturally, they would never have left. Our fate would have been very different. It has nothing to do with the first pot of gold, it’s simply pure temple cold calculation of survivability of self and one’s future spawns.

• The Further Migration to White Land

The joke continues ... Our forefathers, since landed in a not-too-far-away place called Borneo, had it good for a while (but many too went further to the whites). Just like the rail-road-builder semi-yellow uncle, our forefathers here had gotten not too rich, but good enough for a starter. But, those yellows that landed pre-world wars did manage to dominate the island and become their bosses. These bosses owned almost everything on the island; soon enough, these bosses found the takings not good enough for themselves, they started to rob those other latter landed yellows. Our poor forefathers, having mistakenly spawned even more yellows like us, have once again been forced to rethink. But, many of these forefathers were too old to think any more and for some, they are currently staying in a flatted columbarium. They were hoping against hope by continuing to vote for the bosses, these bosses might empathise their plight. How silly!

The little spawned yellows having been educated well on that little island, of which a big, big mistake, then decided that it might be good to continue that migratory journey by moving to the whites. Not realising that the white dream is mostly over for them. (I shall elaborate later in the essay)

Why won’t the little yellows stay? Again it is all about cash-flow. The little yellows simply couldn’t continue on that little island. They have no jobs and hence, no more cash-flow. What little cash that is left is no longer enough to pay for their aging medical needs. Let alone, sponsoring their little little next generations on their new adventures.

• The Gentle Young Generation

The little little spawns of the little yellows are now even more lost than ever. They don’t do well in school and they don’t screw. They simply have nothing to look forward to. Except for those who still have connections to the bosses, many guys have expressed zero desires to work hard. They are no longer hungry. They are not even aiming to buy a pigeon-hole. As for gals, they just aimed for the much older guys for temporary monetary reprieve.

The Great Circle of Life – Cash-Flow

There are probably many here who are in their late 40's onwards. A good handful are in their 50's and 60's who are planning for retirement. I understand back in the '80s and '90s, there are lots of investment opportunities. One could be a non-graduate but could afford to own a car, pay off a large 5-room flat in SG within 10 years, and slowly, upgrade to a condo. Along the way, one could scoop up another property for investment.

I've spoken to a late 50's taxi-driver with little education but he owned an extra property for investment and could also send one of his children overseas for university education!

All these boil down to one thing: their salaries (namely, cash-flow). They were strong enough to buy their houses or sponsor their kiddos for overseas education. There was no need to talk about cunning or clever investments or getting that elusive first pot of gold, it was simple and considered given.

Moving On

Those good old days are gone now. Young graduates in their late 20's and 30's these days take 25 years to pay off their tiny $500k 4-room flats, many can't afford a car and buying even a small condo for investment is totally out of the question.

In that light, what would be your advice for people in this group to make money? Is the pot of gold elusive, or is there still hope in today's context?

A straight answer is YES. One must leave as soon as possible that island. Japan is having the hardest time on earth. Soon they might be eating tree bark. I don’t profess to know all, but I do know I really need to act really soon.

A $500k loan would have set any one back by $2.5k per month. I really wonder who dare to start that unforgivable loan? Why the need to struggle? Just get your kiddos to screw the minas or siams. Voila! You are now a newly minted mini-tycoon in a new place. Hopefully, they don’t forget to bring you over for old age.

Forget about that first pot of gold. It has nothing to do with one’s survivability. It is the cash-flow game in a foreign land.

I've really enjoyed reading your posts, ikani. They are full of insight and sometimes, inspiration!

But the points raised are generally non-specific. I wonder if you mind sharing exactly how you made your pots of gold. It could be personal. You don't have to state names or full details. But roughly, maybe what you invested in?

I thank you once again for being kind. If it has served as an inspiration to you, it is also serving my need to mind-fuck myself into believing that this is indeed the best choice I’ve got. No buts, no ifs.

Different hunters hunt differently in different places. So what works for me might not work for others.

I made my first pot of gold in properties. I lost my pants in properties. I now am trying to get back on properties. My position has never swayed, I do believe in the enriching property game. It was my fastest route to success. It was my shortest route to failure. It must now be my fastest way to get back on track.

50% of the stuff I do is legal, while the other 50% is illegal, that way I am hedging that my money bag can grow a little fastest than usual. I hope within the next 2-3 years, I no longer need to draw any income from that little island. I will leave that to the clever ones who can carry on the good work of squeezing water out of rocks.

I hope you are satisfied with my answer.

Self-Sufficiency

Yes, there are those young successful ones who go into entrepreneurship and are raking in millions. But I think it's been overhyped. We always hear 99% of successful stories in the media. They hardly publish those who fail. I think it's fair for me to say for every 1 successful story we hear, there are 9 others that fail badly.

Well, I always hear of great stories from the newspapers. Sometimes I wonder why I, wasn’t the one that got interviewed instead for the greatness. I guess I am not good enough.

I have again mind-fucked myself that I should be satisfied that I have managed to move on to a new land successfully. I am the numero uno in the renewed generation game. So I shouldn’t expect much and be happy with what I have already achieved. I know this a lame mind-fuck, but, truly, what else can I do. Maybe, I should be happy with the frequent road trips eating my heart out on fruits, seafood and ???? (LOL). Maybe …

Beware of the Back-Flow

Yes that's what I feel too. But going regional, one has to be brave and really study the businesses and markets. They carry a lot more risks. Nothing like investing in one's own home/backyard.

Right now, from my observation, those who invest in Singapore are mainly the very rich ones. The young or even middle age commoners in their 30's and 40's are finding it very hard or impossible.

Going overseas is hard. I remember once, my business brought me to HK. I sank tons of money in it and the end result was zero. The HKongers simply shunned my products once they got wind that it is from that little island. Their superiority complex, or was it their inferiority complex kicked in.

Same, same for my little excursion to the white land. I too was bashed up real bad. So going overseas is never easy. It is always easier said than done.

But, Malaysia is not too bad lah. They are friendliest nation on earth for us islanders. So better learn to appreciate our host country well. Get a beach-head and get an in-road sank-in.

Back to my favourite restaurant uncle story: He now makes frequent trips back to Malaysia, specifically back to Sitiawan, the home of Fuchou. When he was 20yo, he jumped aeroplane in NY. (LOL … till now USA still ban too many Malaysians to land.) He worked as a kitchen helper in a nice Chinese restaurant. He was married off to the boss’ daughter. With that, he was given an apartment block as dowry. He can literally shake leg for the rest of his life in NY. He was forced to drive a benz by his wife. But, he was sad. He missed all the childhood friends. He has always wanted to return to Malaysia for good, but now he couldn’t. He has kiddos married in NY and they are young budding accountants and lawyers and he needs to take care of them. A 1000sf apartment now costs us$1.0-1.5m to boot. None of his kiddos can do it. So as a doting father, he gave them his life-savings to jump-start. In addition, he has no more friends staying put in the kampong of Sitiawan. He is now even sadder, as he couldn’t come to his childhood friends’ funerals. So what it tells us is that the white land has no draw. It is just simply a place to have good cash-flow, but not as a home.

In this next example, we have a braver American yellow professor who returned to Kulai’s bungalow. Apart from his complaint of grass taller than him, he is one happy bloke. He will hide in Tesco for hours sniffing out deals and buy them all. Soon I think his bungalow is fully engaged like our karung kuni. All of us are closet squirrels at heart. LOL … he told me he really don’t miss the cold in white land. I replied, “Welcome back to Malaysia.”

Get Organised

Sooner is better than later, one must drop the apron string attached to that little island.

By spending time here in Malaysia, one is not spending enough time on that island minding his own business/work. Sooner rather later, that business/work thing on the island will rot. The moment one decides to buy a property in Malaysia, the rot has started.

So it is very important that one must start spending time and effort to rebuild that cash-flow in a foreign land. What’s better than to get organized amongst the AWOL islanders.

By getting organised, one can get the cheapest source of things and services and also the possibility of conducting real and successful hunting runs.

With more heads, I am sure we can temple calculate better. I don’t believe we are totally stupid individually, but we do need to share our strengths in a foreign land.

This 5-to-10 generations place is good enough for me. At least I can’t see a further better place. Just this week-end, peeps, guess where I have been? Yes. Just a near-near place, Pontian. What a beautiful-beautiful place. Imagine such a beautiful-beautiful place so near to us. This 5-to-10 generations estimate is not that far wrong after all!

Cash-flow is the key to the game.

(Sorry ... can't upload pictures to tell a thousand words ... Maybe some kind folks here can teach me how ...)

Educating the Youngs

I realised that one shouldn’t be too hung-up about the child’s education. They can always find a niche that will conquer them all. Our kiddos are never stupid. They are our own spawns. I knew of a very young person who started making keys as a simple living for about 3 years now. Today, he’s buying a semi-detached as his love nest. His gf insists that he must commensurate her with an equivalent living. What an opportunist and a great con job! LOL … Malaysia Boleh!

Getting Out ASAP

Back in the '80s and '90s in SG, even an ordinary folk who saved enough over say a 10-15 year period can dream of upgrading to a condo. Today, I call it downgrading. They are so much smaller than in the past, come with a ridiculous huge balcony, tiny kitchen and most don't even come with a utility or storeroom. Yet what puzzles me is many are still snapping them up despite all the additional taxes like ABSD, etc.

Is Singapore really that strong and on a bull run in the next 10-20 years?

One really doesn’t need to go through what Japan experienced before one decides that it is a good idea to hop away from Japan. I rest my case.

The choice, as bro FHBH12 had said, remains personal. For those who have strong disposition, one should consider staying. For the rest of us, better run fast-hand, fast-leg. Imagine one has already invested in a foreign land in 2000, rather than 2017! What a broken record! In fact, most of my discussions were magniloquence, they tried to cover up my own inadequacies. Sad!

As said before, there would be many naysayers along our paths. Stay firm, stay strong and stay away. If one has decided, so be it. Let the joy begins …

in metta …