Commmodities

[Muthukali]

Oil Trades Near Two-Month Low as U.S. Output Rises, Demand Drops
By Jacob Adelman - Oct 4, 2012 10:06 AM GMT+0800

Oil traded near a two-month low in New York after the government reported that U.S. crude production climbed to the highest level in more than 15 years while fuel consumption decreased.

Futures fluctuated after dropping 4.1 percent yesterday, the most since June, following an Energy Department report that output rose by 11,000 barrels a day to 6.52 million last week, the most since December 1996. Fuel demand fell 0.3 percent to 18.3 million barrels a day in the four weeks ended Sept. 28, the lowest level since April. Crude and distillate stockpiles declined as gasoline supplies increased.

“The market just believes that there is too much supply, and when it doesn’t have the economic activity to back it up, generally the price must go down,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity newsletter in Sydney, who sees prices as low as $82 a barrel if inventories don’t shrink and the global economy doesn’t improve. “We don’t have the economic activity that should send prices higher.”

Crude for November delivery was at $87.99 a barrel, down 15 cents, on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:02 a.m. in Tokyo. It earlier fell as much as 26 cents, or 0.2 percent. Futures dropped $3.75 yesterday to close at $88.14, the lowest level since Aug. 2. Prices are down 11 percent this year.

Crude Supplies
Brent oil for November settlement was down 3 cents after dropping $3.40, or 3.1 percent, to end yesterday’s session at $108.17 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest close since Aug. 2. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $20.20 to the New York-traded West Texas Intermediate grade, up from $20.03 yesterday.

Oil’s decline in New York is stalling as a technical indicator shows futures are dropping too quickly for further losses to be sustained, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The 14-day relative strength index is at 33.1, the lowest since June 28. A reading below 30 indicates prices are oversold. Crude has chart support at $87.79 a barrel. That’s the lower of two so-called leading span lines that define an “ichimoku cloud,” an area where buy orders may be clustered.

Crude supplies rose 8.4 percent last week from a year earlier, the Energy Department said yesterday. Stockpiles dropped by 482,000 barrels from the previous week to 364.7 million barrels. Inventories were forecast to increase 1.5 million barrels, according to the median of 11 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Imports of crude increased by 511,000 barrels a day to 8.11 million in the week ended Sept. 28. Shipments have arrived at an average rate of 8.84 million barrels a day this year. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, rose 135,000 barrels to 43.9 million last week, the first gain in four weeks.

Highest Since 1996
America met 83 percent of its energy needs in the first six months of the year, thanks to new technologies that enable drillers to tap crude trapped in shale formations. If the trend continues through 2012, it will be the highest level since 1991.

A combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has unlocked supplies trapped in shale formations in states including North Dakota, Texas and Oklahoma. North Dakota’s output rose 26 percent this year through July, according to the department.

The same technology unleashed a boom in natural gas output that propelled supplies to a record last year and sent prices to a decade low of $1.907 per million British thermal units in April.

Enbridge Inc. (ENB) plans to build an oil pipeline to transport Bakken crude east in an effort to avoid a bottleneck at Cushing, the company said yesterday.

Dubbed “Sandpiper,” the line would carry as much as 200,000 barrels a day from the Bakken formation in North Dakota to Superior, Wisconsin, and eventually to refineries in eastern Canada, Stephen Wuori, the head of the company’s liquids pipelines business, said at an investor conference in Toronto.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jacob Adelman in Tokyo at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at [email protected]

 

[Ralders]

sundram ein anpau sutpak kongsan tiibole maka wasanto.

 

[Muthukali]

Gold Falls From Highest Since November on Jobless Data
By Debarati Roy - Oct 6, 2012 2:18 AM GMT+0800

Gold futures fell from the highest in almost 11 months after the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to expand monetary stimulus. Silver also slid.

The jobless rate in September declined to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent, government data showed today. Earlier, gold reached a 10-month high close to $1,800 an ounce on speculation that stimulus programs in the U.S., Europe and Japan enhanced the appeal of the metal as an alternative to currencies.

“People are throwing in the towel,” Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Investors are now speculating on how long the third round” of qualitative easing will continue in the U.S., he said.

Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.9 percent to settle at $1,780.80 at 1:44 p.m. on the Comex in New York. Prices earlier touched $1,798.10, the highest for a most-active contract since Nov. 9, and gained 0.4 percent this week.

The unemployment rate, derived from a survey of households, was forecast by analysts to rise to 8.2 percent.

Silver futures for December delivery declined 1.5 percent to $34.572 an ounce. Yesterday, the metal closed at the highest since March 1.

Silver has jumped 24 percent this year, while gold advanced 14 percent.

Platinum futures for January delivery retreated 1 percent to $1,707.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, ending an eight-session rally.

Palladium futures for December delivery slumped 1.7 percent to $663.20 an ounce on the Nymex.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Oil Declines a Second Day on Demand Outlook for Europe, China
By Ben Sharples - Oct 8, 2012 10:34 AM GMT+0800

Oil fell for a second day before a meeting of European officials amid speculation the region’s debt crisis and a slowdown in China will curb fuel demand.

Futures slid as much as 0.7 percent after capping a third weekly decline on Oct. 5, the longest run of losses since June. European finance ministers meet in Luxembourg today to discuss Spain’s overhaul effort and closer banking cooperation. Speculators cut bullish bets on oil in the week ended Oct. 2, a report showed. Economic growth in developing East Asia, including China, will be the slowest since 2001 this year, the World Bank said in a report.

“The prospects for any really significant increase in demand doesn’t seem to be there,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “There’s plenty of supply. It’s difficult for traders to get too bullish.”

Crude for November delivery slipped as much as 58 cents to $89.30 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $89.44 at 1:31 p.m. Sydney time. The contract dropped 2 percent to $89.88 on Oct. 5, the lowest close since Oct. 3. Prices slid 2.5 percent last week and are 9.5 percent lower this year.

Brent oil for November settlement fell 45 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $111.57 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $22.09, after rising to $22.13 on Oct. 5, the widest since October 2011.

Cutting Bullish Bets
Oil in New York is breaching long-term technical support at $89.83 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On the weekly chart, that’s the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the drop to $32.40 in December 2008 from an intraday record high of $147.27 in July that year. Losses tend to accelerate below chart-support levels.

Prices will slide through Oct. 12, analysts forecast in a Bloomberg survey last week. Twenty-one of 38 analysts predicted crude will decrease through Oct. 12. Thirteen respondents, or 34 percent, said futures will gain and four said there will be little change in prices.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators cut their net-long position in oil by 11,590 contracts, or 6.52 percent, from a week earlier, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Oct. 5.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel tomorrow makes her first visit to Greece since the debt crisis began in 2009. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy travels for talks with French President Francois Hollande on Oct. 10. A month after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi unveiled a plan to buy bonds to alleviate the crisis, leaders have yet to agree on a plan for rescue conditions and centralized bank supervision.

‘Negative Impact’
Economic growth in developing East Asia, which excludes Japan and India, will probably ease to 7.2 percent this year, down from 8.3 percent in 2011 and a May forecast of 7.6 percent, the Washington-based World Bank said. The slowdown in China has been “significant,” it said.

The European Union used 16 percent of the world’s oil last year, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy. The U.S. and China are the world’s biggest crude users, accounting for a combined 32 percent.

“The sentiment about demand may have a negative impact on prices with the global economic slowdown, particularly the concern over Spain and the recent growth revision in China,” Fahad Alturki, Riyadh-based senior economist at Jadwa Investment Co, said yesterday.

Record Gasoline
The average price of regular unleaded gasoline reached a record $4.655 a gallon in California yesterday, 22 percent more than the national average of $3.814, AAA said on its website. Prices have risen and producers including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) have rationed deliveries as refinery halts cut into the state’s supplies.

Governor Jerry Brown told state regulators to allow oil refineries immediately to make an early transition to winter- blend gasoline to help bring pump prices under control, he said in a statement yesterday. The grade typically isn’t sold until after Oct. 31 and the end of the smog season because it reduces air quality more than summer gasoline.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Gold Declines With Commodities Before European Ministers Meeting
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen - Oct 8, 2012 10:17 AM GMT+0800

Gold dropped for a second day along with commodities before a European finance ministers meeting on speculation the euro-zone debt crisis may continue to damp demand for raw materials.

Spot gold fell as much as 0.6 percent to $1,770.55 an ounce and traded at $1,771.05 as of 10:10 a.m. Singapore time. Silver dropped 1.4 percent to $34.0325 an ounce while platinum and palladium also declined.

European finance ministers will meet in Luxembourg today, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits Greece tomorrow for the first time since the crisis erupted. German data today may show industrial production and exports fell, adding to evidence Europe’s debt crisis is damping growth and weakening the euro. Copper tumbled the most in more than a week.

“The Europe problem is far from over,” Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS AG’s wealth management unit, said by phone today. “Stick with dollar and euro and your money will depreciate. But a lot of people still want to take that risk.” The euro lost 0.3 percent to $1.3003.

Gold had a weekly gain of 0.5 percent last week after trading at an 11-month high of $1,796.10. The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to expand monetary stimulus that underpinned the bullion’s rally last month. The Fed announced a third round of quantitative easing in September.

Gold for December delivery fell 0.6 percent at $1,770.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in Singapore at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Oil Rises First Time in Three Days as Discount to Brent Widens
By Ben Sharples - Oct 9, 2012 9:21 AM GMT+0800

Oil rose for the first time in three days in New York, rebounding from a decline that sent the benchmark U.S. grade to the biggest discount versus European futures in almost a year.

West Texas Intermediate crude gained as much as 1.1 percent after sliding 2.6 percent in the prior two days and reaching technical-support levels. The contract’s discount to London’s Brent oil widened to $22.49 yesterday, the largest gap since Oct. 20, 2011. The U.S. Energy Department releases its weekly report on production and stockpiles tomorrow.

“Often these things feed on themselves a bit, people are on the sidelines waiting to take action and when the market starts to move it brings them in,” said Ric Spooner, a chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “There does appear to be a risk-on movement generally.”

Crude for November delivery climbed as much as 96 cents to $90.29 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $90.23 at 12:19 p.m. Sydney time. The contract dropped 55 cents to $89.33 on Oct. 8, the lowest close since Oct. 3. Prices are down 8.7 percent this year.

Brent oil for November settlement gained 87 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $112.69 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices are up 5 percent this year. The premium to WTI was at $22.46.

Bollinger Band
Oil is rising in New York after rebounding from its lower Bollinger Band for a second day yesterday, signaling technical support, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This indicator is at $88.03 a barrel today. Buy orders tend to be clustered near chart-support levels. Crude’s 30-day stochastic oscillators have been below 30, a reading that indicates futures have fallen too far for further losses to be sustained.

U.S. crude stockpiles probably rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Energy Department report. That would be the first gain in three weeks.

Gasoline supplies and distillate inventories, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably each increased by 500,000 barrels, according to the survey.

The American Petroleum Institute will release separate stockpile data today. The API collects inventory information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Oil Trades Near Two-Day Low as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Increase
By Ben Sharples - Oct 11, 2012 9:07 AM GMT+0800

Oil traded near the lowest close in two days in New York after an industry-funded report showed stockpiles increased a fifth week in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer.

Futures were little changed after slipping for a third day in four yesterday. Crude inventories rose 1.6 million barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. An Energy Department report today may show supplies gained 1.5 million, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The department lowered its 2012 estimates for U.S. gasoline demand and the price of West Texas Intermediate oil. Brent oil’s premium to WTI climbed to the widest in almost a year.

“The market is factoring in an inventory build and a little bit more demand destruction,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity newsletter in Sydney.

Crude for November delivery slid 4 cents to $91.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:02 p.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday declined 1.2 percent to $91.25, the lowest close since Oct. 8. Prices are down 7.7 percent this year.

Brent oil for November settlement climbed 29 cents to $114.62 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract slid 17 cents to $114.33 yesterday. The European benchmark grade’s premium to WTI was at $23.41, the widest gap since October 2011.

Fuel Demand
Oil may extend losses in New York after failing to breach technical resistance along its middle Bollinger Band, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Futures yesterday reversed gains after reaching this indicator, at around $93.53 a barrel today. Sell orders tend to be clustered near chart-resistance levels.

U.S. gasoline consumption will average 8.72 million barrels a day this year, down from 8.75 million in 2011 and a projection last month of 8.73 million, the Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said yesterday in its monthly Short- Term Energy Outlook. WTI will average $95.55 a barrel this year, down from the September forecast of $95.66, the report showed.

Gasoline slid 0.25 cents to $2.9568 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange today after closing at the highest level in almost two weeks yesterday.

Stockpiles of the fuel gained 2.5 million barrels last week, the API said. They are forecast to increase 250,000 barrels, according to the Bloomberg survey. Distillate supplies, a category that heating oil and diesel, fell 6.2 million barrels, compared with a projected 1 million barrel drop in the survey.

The API collects inventory information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines. The government requires that reports be filed with the Energy Department for its weekly survey.

California Prices
Gasoline at the pump in California fell from a record as refiners began making a different blend of fuel after receiving permission from the state. The price slid to $4.666 a gallon yesterday from the all-time peak of $4.671 on Oct. 9, according to AAA, the nation’s largest motoring organization. Wholesale California-blend gasoline in Los Angeles slid 22.5 cents to 34 cents a gallon above Nymex futures after the California Energy Commission said inventories in the state rose 4.9 percent last week.

Prices had risen after a power failure at Exxon Mobil Corp.’s 150,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Torrance near Los Angeles, a fire at Chevron Corp. (CVX)’s plant in Richmond near San Francisco, and the shutdown of a Chevron pipeline that delivers crude to Northern California. The California Air Resources Board granted refineries permission on Oct. 7 to make gasoline with a higher vapor pressure, allowing them to produce more of the fuel by adding butane to the mix.

OPEC Forecast
OPEC increased estimates of the amount of crude it will need to supply next year after trimming forecasts for oil production from outside the group.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will need to provide an average of 29.8 million barrels a day in 2013, about 200,000 more than estimated last month, according to a report by the group’s Vienna-based secretariat yesterday. OPEC reduced its forecast for output from outside the group for next year by the same amount, to 53.89 million barrels, citing lower- than-expected growth in emerging nations.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Oil Gains a Second Day on Falling Jobless Claims, Mideast Unrest
By Ben Sharples - Oct 12, 2012 9:08 AM GMT+0800

Oil rose for a second day in New York after U.S. claims for jobless benefits dropped to the lowest level in four years and increased tension in the Middle East prompted concern crude supplies may be disrupted.

Futures advanced as much as 0.6 percent and are headed for the first weekly gain in a month. First-time unemployment claims fell to 339,000 last week, the lowest since February 2008, according to data from the Labor Department. Brent oil’s premium to West Texas Intermediate rose to the widest in a year after Turkey said a Syrian plane that it grounded contained munitions, while Italian Foreign Minister Giulio Terzi said Europe is prepared to tighten sanctions on Iran.

“The potential for a blow-up in the Middle East is being reflected in that persistently wide spread between Brent and WTI,” said Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. “Jobless claims were better-than-expected.”

Crude for November delivery climbed as much as 53 cents to $92.60 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $92.36 at 12:04 p.m. Sydney time. The contract yesterday rose 82 cents to $92.07 a barrel. Prices are up 2.8 percent this week and down 6.6 percent this year.

Brent oil for November settlement increased 10 cents to $115.81 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark grade was at a premium of $23.45 to WTI. It reached $23.64 yesterday, the widest gap since October 2011.

Middle East
Oil is extending gains in New York after its moving average convergence-divergence indicator rose above the signal line yesterday for the first time in four weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Investors typically buy contracts on a so-called bullish MACD crossover. Crude has technical resistance along its middle Bollinger Band, around $93.50 a barrel today.

The Syrian Arab Airlines plane that was forced to land on Oct. 10 by Turkish F-16 jets contained equipment and munitions sent for the Syrian Defense Ministry from a Russian institution, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, said yesterday. The confiscation of the cargo follows the shelling of a Turkish border town by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and Turkish artillery barrages in response over the past week.

Europe is prepared to tighten sanctions on Iran if talks stall about the country’s nuclear program, Terzi said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. A European Union ban on the purchase, transport, financing and insurance of Iranian oil went into effect on July 1. Military action against the Persian Gulf nation, which has been threatened by Israeli leaders, wouldn’t be effective, Terzi said.

Crude stockpiles
U.S. crude stockpiles rose 1.7 million barrels last week as output climbed to a 17-year high, an Energy Department report showed yesterday. Inventories were forecast to increase by 1.5 million barrels, according to the median estimate of 11 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Output rose 78,000 barrels a day to 6.6 million in the week ended Oct. 5, the most since May 1995, the report showed. Imports climbed 115,000 barrels a day to 8.22 million.

Gasoline inventories fell 534,000 barrels to 195.4 million last week, the lowest level since October 2008, the department said. Stockpiles of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, tumbled 3.2 million barrels to 120.9 million.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce shipments by 0.3 percent this month, according to Oil Movements. OPEC will export 23.83 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 27, down from 23.89 million a month earlier, the tanker tracker said yesterday in its weekly e-mailed report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Gold prices down 100 baht - Thailand

Published: 13/10/2012 at 09:44 AM
Online news: Economics

The Gold Traders Association this morning set the buying prices at 25,135.28 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments and 25,500 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.

The selling prices were set at 26,000 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments, and 25,600 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.

The gold prices went down 100 baht from yesterday’s close.

The buying prices yesterday closed at 25,226.24 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments and 25,600 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.

The selling prices closed at 26,100 baht per baht-weight for gold ornaments, and 25,700 baht per baht-weight for gold bar.

 

[Muthukali]

Gold Set to Decline First Time in Three Days Before EU Summit
By Glenys Sim - Oct 18, 2012 11:39 AM GMT+0800

Gold and silver are set to drop for the first time in three days as gains in dollar before European Union leaders hold a summit on the region’s debt crisis reduce demand for bullion as a store of value.

Spot gold was little changed at $1,750.50 an ounce at 10:30 a.m. in Singapore, after advancing 0.7 percent in the past two days. The metal for December delivery was also little changed at $1,751.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

European Union leaders gather in Brussels for two days starting today, where Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras prepares to argue for a two-year extension to meet the country’s bailout targets. French President Francois Hollande says efforts to stem the turmoil that began in Greece could unravel if the EU fails to deliver on its promises. The U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge against six counterparts including the euro, rose for the first time in three days, gaining 0.1 percent.

“Gold, at least in the past few days, has re-established its inverse relationship with the dollar and that’s going to determine direction in the very near term,” said Sun Yonggang, a macroeconomic strategist at Everbright Futures Co., a unit of China’s largest state-owned investment group. “China’s growth came in in line with expectations and now that that’s out of the way, the attention shifts back to Europe.”

Data today showed China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.4 percent in the July-September period from a year earlier, matching economists’ estimates, while industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment accelerated in September. The country’s economic growth has started to stabilize, the official Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday, citing Premier Wen Jiabao.

Holdings Climb
Spot gold of 99.99 percent purity was little changed at 352.90 yuan a gram ($1,754.47) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Volumes slipped to 3,759 kilograms yesterday from 4,686 kilograms on Oct. 16.

Holdings in exchange-traded products rose for the first time in four days yesterday to 2,579.062 metric tons, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Holdings reached a record 2,582.98 tons on Oct. 11.

Cash silver fell as much as 0.4 percent to $33.0875 an ounce, before trading little changed at $33.2075. Spot platinum gained 0.4 percent to $1,672 an ounce, climbing for a third day, while palladium advanced 0.2 percent to $654.50 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Oil Near One-Week High on U.S. View; Goldman Cuts Brent Forecast
By Ben Sharples - Oct 18, 2012 12:34 PM GMT+0800

Oil traded near the highest price in a week in New York amid signs of an economic recovery in the U.S., the world’s largest crude consumer. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its Brent forecast by 15 percent.

Futures for West Texas Intermediate oil were little changed after rising 3 cents yesterday. Housing starts in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer, surged 15 percent last month to the highest in four years, exceeding forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Oil pared gains after a report showed stockpiles advanced to the highest level for this time of year since government records began in 1982. Goldman cut its 2013 forecast for London-traded Brent to $110 a barrel from $130.

“We are seeing the green shoots of recovery starting to come through in the U.S.,” said Jonathan Barratt, the chief executive officer of Barratt’s Bulletin, a commodity newsletter in Sydney. “I’m quite optimistic, and I think you should see demand start to pick up.”

Crude for November delivery was at $92.09 a barrel, down 3 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:06 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday closed at $92.12, the highest settlement since Oct. 9. Prices changed less than 25 cents for a fourth consecutive day, the longest streak of moves that small since 2003. Oil is down 6.8 percent this year.

Brent oil for December settlement rose 26 cents to $113.48 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe. The front-month European benchmark grade’s premium to the corresponding WTI contract was at $20.94 a barrel. It settled at $23.95 on Oct. 15, the widest gap since reaching a record on Oct. 14, 2011.

Goldman Forecast
Goldman maintained its near-term forecast of $120 a barrel for Brent on tight physical supply, analysts including New York- based David Greely said in a report yesterday. The European benchmark contract’s premium to WTI will narrow to $4 early next year as the Seaway pipeline reaches full capacity, Goldman said.

U.S. housing starts climbed to an 872,000 annual rate, the most since July 2008, the Commerce Department said. Forecasts from economists surveyed by Bloomberg ranged from 735,000 to 800,000. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, jumped to the most since July 2008. An index of leading indicators by the New York-based Conference Board today is forecast to signal an improving economy.

U.S. crude inventories gained 2.9 million barrels last week to 369 million, the Energy Department said in a report yesterday. They were forecast to rise by 1.5 million, according to the median estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Production increased for a sixth week to 6.61 million barrels a day, the highest level since May 1995, the report showed. Total petroleum demand rose 4.3 percent to 19.5 million barrels a day.

Fuel Supplies
Gasoline stockpiles climbed 1.7 million barrels, the department said. They were forecast to rise by 500,000 in the survey. Distillate inventories, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell 2.2 million barrels, compared with a projected drop of 1.5 million.

Gasoline for November delivery declined 6.36 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $2.7817 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, the lowest settlement since July 11. Prices were at $2.7847 today.

Oil may decline in New York after failing to breach technical resistance along its middle Bollinger Band yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Futures yesterday halted their advance near this indicator, at around $92.98 a barrel today. Sell orders tend to be clustered near chart- resistance levels.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Oil Falls Most in Two Weeks on Economic Growth Concern
By Moming Zhou - Oct 20, 2012 3:31 AM GMT+0800

Oil tumbled the most in two weeks as Microsoft (MSFT) Corp. and General Electric Co. missed quarterly sales forecasts, raising concern that slowing economic growth will reduce oil demand.

Crude prices and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) declined for a second day on the companies’ results and as euro-area leaders failed to discuss further aid for Spain at a summit in Brussels. Oil also retreated as the euro weakened against the dollar amid speculation the debt crisis is worsening.

“The weak earnings are making people nervous about the shape of the economy and about oil demand,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “The dollar is up and stocks are down, and that’s pushing oil lower.”

Crude for November delivery fell $2.05, or 2.2 percent, to settle at $90.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since Oct. 3. Futures slipped 2 percent this week and are down 8.9 percent this year.

Brent for December settlement dropped $2.28, or 2 percent, to end the session at $110.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

The S&P 500 slumped as much as 1.9 percent after Microsoft and GE (GE) reported revenue that fell short of analysts’ predictions. Microsoft, the largest software maker, said yesterday that the fiscal first quarter was affected by declining sales of Windows, its operating system. GE cut its 2012 revenue-growth forecast on weaker third-quarter demand.

U.S. Supplies
U.S. oil stockpiles jumped to a two-month high last week as output reached the most in 17 years, the Energy Department said Oct. 17. Gasoline demand has slipped 6.2 percent since August.

“The economy is the primary driver in the market,” said said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We have a well-supplied market in the U.S. and demand is weak.”

U.S. oil consumption declined to a four-year low last month on economic weakness, the American Petroleum Institute reported today in Washington. Total petroleum deliveries, a measure of demand, dropped 3.8 percent from a year earlier to 18.2 million barrels a day, the lowest level since September 2008.

Oil may fall next week on concern that supply is outpacing demand. Nineteen of 33 analysts, or 58 percent, forecast crude will decrease through Oct. 26. Seven respondents, or 21 percent, predicted a gain and seven forecast little change.

Euro Falls
Crude also declined as the euro retreated as much as 0.4 percent against the dollar. A weaker euro and stronger dollar reduce oil’s investment appeal.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said after the euro- region summit in Brussels that his nation doesn’t feel that it’s under any pressure to ask for a bailout, fueling concern the debt crisis will be prolonged. Germany and France agreed to enforce common banking regulation for the euro area’s 6,000 lenders by the end of 2013.

“The macro economy is overshadowing the market,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “There is a lot of disappointment after the EU meeting in Brussels.”

Oil also declined after failing to sustain gains above $93 a barrel, said Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of Iitrader.com in Chicago. Oil rose to $93.05 earlier as TransCanada Corp. shut the Keystone pipeline to the U.S.

“We have such big resistance at $93 and the outside broader market is running the show,” he said. “The dollar is up and we have stocks falling.”

Keystone Restart
TransCanada (TRP) closed the 590,000-barrel-a-day Keystone line Oct. 17 for three days of repairs after finding an “anomaly” in a section running from Missouri to Illinois. Keystone moves oil from Canada to Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York futures.

The company plans to restart the line tomorrow, James Millar, a company spokesman in Calgary, said in an e-mail yesterday. TransCanada may have to deliver extra crude in November to make up the amount shippers will lose this month as a result of the shut-in, he said.

“The news about Keystone initially drove prices up, but as people digested it, they realized it’s not as important as they thought,” Lynch said.

Implied volatility for at-the-money options expiring in December, a measure of expected swings in futures and a gauge of options prices, rebounded from the lowest level since May. Prices posted a daily change of 25 cents or less during each of the past five sessions. Volatility was 29.2 percent at 3:20 p.m. in New York. It was 28 percent each of the past two days.

Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 549,376 contracts as of 3:30 p.m. Volume totaled 533,036 contracts yesterday, 1.1 percent above the three-month average. Open interest was 1.59 million.

To contact the reporters on this story: Moming Zhou in New York at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets in New York at [email protected].

 

[Muthukali]

Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:39pm EDT

SINGAPORE, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Gold held above $1,720 an
ounce on Tuesday after demand from jewellers helped prices
rebound from a 1-month low in the previous session, but
investors were likely to stay on the sidelines ahead of a U.S.
Federal Reserve policy meeting.

FUNDAMENTALS
* Gold was largely unchanged at $1,727.94 an ounce at
0014 GMT after falling to a 1-month low around $1,713 on Monday
-- a level which eventually ignited demand from jewellers and
speculators in Asia.
* U.S. gold for December was steady at $1,729.30 an
ounce.
* Even though the Fed is likely to hold off from new action
after announcing at its last meeting it would buy $40 billion of
mortgage-backed bonds a month until the U.S. job market
improved, its policy statement on Wednesday will still be
closely scrutinised.

MARKET NEWS
* The dollar hit a three-month high against the yen on
Tuesday, as the yen sagged on growing market expectations for
the Bank of Japan to expand its monetary stimulus at a policy
meeting next week.
* Japan's Nikkei share average rose to a four-week high
early on Tuesday, lifted by exporters as the yen softened.

 

[Muthukali]

Gold Gains as Drop to Six-Week Low Spurs Buying; ETPs Set Record
By Glenys Sim - Oct 25, 2012 9:48 AM GMT+0800

Gold rebounded after a drop to the lowest price in almost seven weeks spurred purchases and as investors boosted holdings in exchange-traded products to a record. Silver, platinum and palladium advanced.

Spot gold climbed as much as 0.4 percent to $1,708 an ounce and was at $1,706.85 at 9:48 a.m. in Singapore. The metal slumped to $1,699 yesterday, dropping below $1,700 for the first time since Sept. 7, as the European Central Bank warned about the risk of deflation in some countries.

Assets held in exchange-traded products have expanded 9.7 percent this year as central banks from the U.S. to Europe and Asia took steps to bolster their economies. The Federal Reserve yesterday maintained its $40 billion monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities and repeated that interest rates are likely to stay near zero until at least mid-2015.

“As long as monetary policy remains accommodative, investors are still interested to buy gold,” said Wang Xiaoli, chief investment strategist at CITICS Futures Co., a unit of China’s biggest listed brokerage. “The Fed’s actions were within expectations and already priced into the market.”

Gold for December delivery rose 0.3 percent to $1,707.40 an ounce on the Comex in New York after dropping to $1,698.70 yesterday. Bullion-backed ETP holdings totaled 2,584.464 metric tons yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gold of 99.99 percent purity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell 0.4 percent to 343.79 yuan a gram ($1,712.55 an ounce). Volumes for the benchmark cash contract dropped to a one-week low of 3,420 kilograms yesterday from 5,036 kilograms on Oct. 23, which was the highest since Sept. 28.

Cash silver rose for a second day, gaining as much as 0.6 percent to $31.9438 an ounce, before trading at $31.9188. The metal earlier slumped to $31.5238, the lowest since Aug. 31.

Spot platinum climbed for the first time in six days, adding 0.9 percent to $1,574 an ounce. Palladium advanced 0.7 percent to $600 an ounce, snapping a five-day decline.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Gold Traders More Bullish as ETP Hoard Sets Record: Commodities
By Nicholas Larkin - Oct 26, 2012 11:41 AM GMT+0800

Gold traders are the most bullish in three weeks as investors’ bullion holdings rose to a record on mounting speculation that central banks will add stimulus to bolster economic growth.

Fourteen of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week, nine were bearish and three were neutral. Investors boosted holdings in exchange-traded products to an all-time high of 2,584.5 metric tons on Oct. 24, valued at $142.4 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Hedge funds’ bets on a rally are near the biggest in more than a year, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Central banks from Europe to China to the U.S. have pledged to do more to boost economies. The yen reached a four-month low versus the dollar this week on speculation the Bank of Japan will further expand stimulus and the Federal Reserve said it plans to continue buying bonds. Gold rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011.

“The whole economic situation is going to get worse rather than better,” said Thorsten Polleit, chief economist at Degussa Goldhandel GmbH, a precious metal trading and investment company in Frankfurt. “Paper currencies have already lost their function as a store of value and it’s getting worse. People are increasingly putting their savings into precious metals.”

Gold Prices
Gold rose 9.5 percent to $1,711.55 an ounce in London this year, advancing for a 12th consecutive year, the longest winning streak in at least nine decades. October’s average of $1,751 is set to be the third-highest month ever. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities lost 1.3 percent since the start of January and the MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities climbed 9.8 percent. Treasuries returned 1.4 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

The BOJ, which holds a policy meeting Oct. 30, will consider raising its asset-purchase program by 10 trillion yen ($125 billion) to 90 trillion yen, the Nikkei newspaper reported yesterday. The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The European Central Bank has said it is ready to buy bonds of indebted nations and China approved a $158 billion subways-to-roads construction plan.

Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar, and the metal generally earns returns only through price gains, increasing its allure as interest rates decline. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities jumped 35 percent this year and reached a 16-month high in September.

Investors Buy
Gold ETP holdings gained 7.9 percent since the end of July and now account for almost a year of mine production, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays Plc. Speculators’ wagers on a rally were the highest since August 2011 in the week to Oct. 9, CFTC data show. They cut their net-long position by 7 percent to 184,404 futures and options by Oct. 16, data show.

Gold dropped below $1,700 this week as “fatigue set in” among fund managers after they boosted bets and as prices failed to reach $1,800, said Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS AG in London. Higher prices also curbed physical demand, said Walter de Wet, an analyst at Standard Bank Plc in Johannesburg.

The U.S. Mint sold 48,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins so far this month, 29 percent fewer than throughout September, data on its website show. This year’s sales of 530,000 ounces are down 41 percent from the same period in 2011.

Indian Demand
Gold imports by India, last year’s biggest buyer, slid to as low as 170 tons in the third quarter from 205 tons a year earlier, according to Bachhraj Bamalwa, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. Local prices fell 5.7 percent since setting a record Sept. 13. Gold’s drop this month may spur more physical demand in Asia, Standard Bank said in an Oct. 24 report. Indian consumers usually boost purchases before the wedding season and religious festivals later this year.

Central banks have been expanding bullion reserves to diversify from currencies. Nations may add almost 500 tons this year, the London-based World Gold Council said in August. Brazil raised its gold reserves last month for the first time since December 2008 and countries from South Korea to Russia increased holdings this year, International Monetary Fund data show.

In other commodities, 15 of 30 traders and analysts surveyed expect copper to gain next week and 10 were bearish. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, climbed 3 percent to $7,828.75 a ton this year.

Sugar Survey
Fourteen of 20 people surveyed said raw sugar will rise next week and three expected a decline. The commodity slid 16 percent to 19.53 cents a pound since the start of January on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange in New York.

Fifteen of 28 people surveyed anticipate higher corn prices next week and five were bearish, while 17 of 29 said soybeans will climb and five predicted a drop. Corn rose 15 percent to $7.42 a bushel in Chicago trading this year as soybeans rallied 29 percent to $15.61 a bushel. Both crops reached records since August as the worst U.S. drought in a half century hurt crops.

The GSCI gauge of raw materials erased this year’s gain three days ago after entering a bull market in the third quarter. The last annual decline was in 2008 and the index made annual advances in 11 of the past 13 years.

The commodity supercycle has further to go because of increasing demand from China and emerging markets, Chris Watling, chief executive officer of Longview Economics Ltd., and Dambisa Moyo, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist, said at a conference in London on Oct. 24.

“The inflation story in commodities is warranted,” said Colin O’Shea, the head of commodities at Hermes Investment Management Ltd. in London, which manages about $2.3 billion of raw-material assets. “Inflation could really happen, and happen in a big way over the course of the next few years. Historically, the primary reason for investing in commodities is diversification.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 9 Hold: 3
Copper survey results: Bullish: 15 Bearish: 10 Hold: 5
Corn survey results: Bullish: 15 Bearish: 5 Hold: 8
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 17 Bearish: 5 Hold: 7
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 3 Hold: 3
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 13 Bearish: 3 Hold: 4
White sugar premium results: Widen: 5 Narrow: 6 Neutral: 9

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Crude Pares Second Weekly Loss as Hurricane Approaches
By Mark Shenk and Moming Zhou - Oct 27, 2012 4:07 AM GMT+0800

Oil pared a second weekly loss, rising with gasoline and heating oil on concern that Hurricane Sandy will disrupt East Coast refinery production and as the U.S. economy showed signs of growth.

Prices advanced as Sandy was forecast to intensify into a “Frankenstorm” that may become the worst to hit the U.S. Northeast in 100 years. The gross domestic product grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department, exceeding analysts’ expectations.

“Oil would have closed lower if not for the Frankenstorm,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “It’s obviously having a bigger effect on heating oil and gasoline because supplies are tight. If the storm shuts refineries and we’re then hit by a cold snap, we could see heating oil prices surge.”

Crude oil for December delivery gained 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, to settle at $86.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell 4.8 percent this week and are down 13 percent this year.

Heating oil climbed 3.57 cents, or 1.2 percent, to end the session at $3.0978 a gallon in New York. Gasoline increased 2.27 cents, or 0.9 percent, to settle at $2.6991 a gallon.

Sandy is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to go between Philadelphia and Baltimore on Oct. 30. Five refineries in Delaware, New Jersey and Pennsylvania that produce 600,000 barrels a day of gasoline may be shut down, said Andy Lipow, president of energy consultant Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.

Purchasing Power
GDP, the value of all goods and services produced, increased its growth from 1.3 percent in the prior quarter. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was a 1.8 percent gain.

Consumers’ purchasing power eased, with disposable income adjusted for inflation rising at a 0.8 percent annual rate from July through September, the least since the end of 2011, today’s report showed.

The GDP estimate is the first of three for the quarter, with the other releases scheduled for November and December when more information becomes available.

“The GDP number was better than expected but 2 percent growth doesn’t signal a booming economy,” said Kyle Cooper, director of commodities research at IAF Advisors in Houston. “At $86 a barrel we’re close to fair value.”

The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil consumer, accounting for 21 percent of global consumption last year, according to BP Plc (BP/)’s Statistical Review of World Energy.

Inventories ‘Bearish’
Brent crude for December settlement increased $1.06, or 1 percent, to end the session at $109.55 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent’s premium over the Nymex futures widened for a fifth day.

Oil slumped to a three-month low on Oct. 24 after the Energy Department said supplies jumped 5.9 million barrels last week to 375.1 million, the highest level for this time of year since the government started reporting inventories in 1982.

“I don’t think there is real conviction in a rebound,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York- based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “The oil inventory was very bearish.”

Production in the U.S. climbed for a seventh week to 6.61 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 19, a 17-year high. Gasoline consumption declined 2.7 percent to 8.49 million barrels a day, the slowest rate since March 16.

“Demand was very weak and production continues to increase,” Cooper said.

Price Outlook
Oil may decline next week on surging U.S. inventories, weakening demand and higher production, a Bloomberg survey showed. Sixteen of 36 analysts, or 44 percent, forecast crude will decrease through Nov. 2. Fifteen respondents, or 42 percent, predicted a gain. Five forecast little change.

“Fundamentally, supply has been big,” said Bill Baruch, senior market strategist at Iitrader.com in Chicago. “There are still fears that the global economy is slowing down.”

Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 366,304 contracts as of 3:14 p.m. Volume totaled 387,095 contracts yesterday, 26 percent below the three-month average. Open interest was 1.59 million.

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at [email protected]; Moming Zhou in New York at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Gold Traders More Bullish After Obama’s Re-Election: Commodities
By Nicholas Larkin - Nov 10, 2012 12:52 AM GMT+0800

Gold traders are the most bullish in 11 weeks and investors accumulated record bullion holdings on speculation U.S. policy makers will add to stimulus following President Barack Obama’s re-election.

Twenty-five of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and three were bearish. A further five were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since Aug. 24. Investors boosted assets in gold-backed exchange-traded products to an all-time high of 2,596.1 metric tons yesterday, valued at $144.7 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Obama won the Nov. 6 election against Mitt Romney, who had criticized the Federal Reserve’s policies and said he’d replace Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, whose second term expires in January 2014. The European Central Bank kept interest rates at a record low yesterday and nations from the U.S. to China have pledged more action to boost economies. Gold rose 70 percent as the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 through June 2011.

“Obama is a supporter of Bernanke and his re-election means that the ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies by the Fed will continue,” said Daniel Briesemann, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “More and more liquidity will be put into the system and therefore there’ll be inflation fears and concern about currency devaluation.”

Gold Prices
Gold rose 11 percent to $1,733.55 an ounce in London this year, heading for a 12th straight annual gain, the longest winning streak in at least nine decades. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities lost 1.6 percent and the MSCI All- Country World Index (MXWD) of equities climbed 8.2 percent. Treasuries returned 2.6 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

Bullion is heading for the first weekly gain in five as Obama was re-elected with the highest unemployment rate of any president returned to office since Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015.

Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar, and the metal generally earns returns only through price gains, increasing its allure as interest rates decline. The Bank of Japan (8301) expanded its asset-purchase program on Oct. 30 for the second time in two months, increasing it by 11 trillion yen ($138 billion). The ECB said it’s ready to buy bonds of indebted nations and China approved a $158 billion subways-to-roads construction plan.

Fiscal Cliff
Investors may now focus on the so-called U.S. fiscal cliff, a combination of automatic spending reductions and expiring tax cuts that amounts to $607 billion in 2013. Democrat and Republican lawmakers say they want to avoid the recession- causing cliff, though have yet to reach a compromise. That may boost gold’s appeal as a protector of wealth, Commerzbank’s Briesemann said.

Hedge funds’ bets on a rally declined for three weeks after reaching the highest since August 2011 on Oct. 9, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Speculators cut their net- long position by 7.5 percent in the week ended Oct. 30 to the lowest since Sept. 4, the data show.

While physical gold purchases in India, last year’s biggest buyer, will be stronger this quarter compared with the previous three months, demand will probably decline for several weeks after the Diwali festival on Nov. 13, Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS AG in London, wrote in a Nov. 7 report.

Physical Demand
Higher prices may curb demand, Tully said in a report yesterday. While the metal slid for four consecutive weeks through Nov. 2, the longest losing streak in more than a year, this year’s average of $1,663 is set to be a record. Bullion reached an all-time high in India in September and consumers there usually boost purchases before the wedding season and religious festivals later in the year.

ETP investors remained bullish, buying metal in 13 of the previous 14 weeks and added 193 tons in the three months through October, the longest monthly run since August 2011. The holdings now account for almost a year of mine production, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays Plc.

In other commodities, nine of 18 traders and analysts surveyed expect copper to gain next week and seven were bearish. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, lost 0.4 percent to $7,571 a ton this year.

Sugar Survey
Six of 14 people surveyed said raw sugar will rise next week and the same amount expected a decline. The commodity slid 18 percent to 19.01 cents a pound since the end of December on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange in New York.

Thirteen of 27 people surveyed anticipate higher corn prices next week and 11 were bearish, while 12 of 28 said soybeans will climb and the same amount predicted a drop. Corn rallied 16 percent to $7.4925 a bushel in Chicago trading this year as soybeans rose 21 percent to $14.635 a bushel. Both crops reached records since August as the worst U.S. drought in a half century hurt crops.

The S&P GSCI gauge of raw materials fell to a three-month low on Nov. 5. Money managers reduced net-long positions across 18 U.S. commodity futures and options by 11 percent in the week ended Oct. 30 to the lowest since July, CFTC data show. The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecast for next year to 3.6 percent from 3.9 percent on Oct. 9.

“It’s very difficult for cyclical commodities to rally just on liquidity, I think you need real growth as well, and what we’ve seen broadly is a slowdown in growth,” said Michael Widmer, an analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London. “There’s a few green shoots out there. Demand in some places is starting to turn around, but you won’t get a strong price reaction until next year.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 25 Bearish: 3 Hold: 5
Copper survey results: Bullish: 9 Bearish: 7 Hold: 2
Corn survey results: Bullish: 13 Bearish: 11 Hold: 3
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 12 Bearish: 12 Hold: 4
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 6 Bearish: 6 Hold: 2
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 5 Hold: 4
White sugar premium results: Widen: 4 Narrow: 1 Neutral: 9

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at [email protected]

 

[Muthukali]

Oil Rises as Consumer Sentiment Gains
By Mark Shenk - Nov 10, 2012 4:21 AM GMT+0800

Oil advanced as data showing U.S. consumer confidence climbed to a five-year high, helping ease concern that a political stalemate in Washington will lead to a fiscal crisis.

Futures rose 1.2 percent after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment for November increased to 84.9 from 82.6 the prior month. Prices fell earlier on concern U.S. lawmakers will be unable to compromise and avoid automatic spending cuts and tax increases at the start of 2013.

“The consumer sentiment numbers were expected to improve but not be that good,” said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. “Prior to their release, we were heading to new lows.”

Crude oil for December delivery increased 98 cents to settle at $86.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which climbed 1.4 percent this week, are down 13 percent this year.

Brent oil for December settlement advanced $2.15, or 2 percent, to end the session at $109.40 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe Exchange.

Confidence increased as the labor market showed signs of improvement. A reading of 82.9 was projected in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The index averaged 64.2 during the last recession and 89 in the five years leading up to the 18-month economic slump that began in December 2007.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) advanced as much as 1 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6 percent after the consumer confidence report.

Fitch Warning
The U.S. economy will contract if Congress fails to act and allows more than $600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts to take effect next year, Fitch Ratings said. A report from the Congressional Budget Office published late yesterday reiterated that failing to avoid the fiscal cliff would lead to a recession in the first half of 2013.

“The continuation of political gridlock in Washington could lead us over a fiscal cliff and into recession,” said Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC, an Austin, Texas-based energy consultant. “The likeliest outcome is a stopgap measure. They will then kick a final resolution down the road, which got us into this mess in the first place.”

President Barack Obama invited the top Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress to the White House next week to begin talks on a plan to avert the plan.

“The American people voted for action,” Obama said at the White House, giving his first public remarks on the budget and deficit since winning re-election Nov. 6. He again said any solution must include spending cuts and raising revenue, including raising taxes on the wealthiest.

Currency Movement
The euro dropped against the dollar as a decline in French industrial production added to speculation Europe’s economic outlook is worsening. The common currency touched $1.269, the lowest level since Sept. 7. A weaker euro and stronger dollar reduce oil’s appeal as an investment alternative.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut forecasts for demand for its crude next year and said that it decreased production last month. The 12-member group will need to provide an average of 29.7 million barrels a day in 2013, 1.25 million less than it’s currently pumping, and 100,000 a day less than it forecast a month ago, the Vienna-based group said in a report today.

Supply from OPEC dropped by 0.2 percent to 30.95 million a day in October, the lowest level since December, because of declines in Nigeria, Iran and Saudi Arabia, the report showed.

Gasoline Rationing
Rationing of gasoline came to New York City and Long Island today, following New Jersey, which imposed restrictions in 12 counties on Nov. 2. Supplies in the region were disrupted by Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall in New Jersey 11 days ago.

Gasoline for December delivery rose 9.19 cents, or 3.5 percent, to settle at $2.6992 a gallon in New York.

“Gasoline supplies are tight in New York and that’s going to keep prices moving higher,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “We’re seeing supplies move around to relieve the situation but it will take time to resolve the problem.”

Electronic trading volume on the Nymex was 523,031 contracts as of 3:18 p.m. Volume totaled 576,821 contracts yesterday, 10 percent above the three-month average. Open interest was 1.61 million.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets in New York at [email protected].

 

[krafty]

deh, got trade oil or nooooot...?:o

Oil Rises as Consumer Sentiment Gains
By Mark Shenk - Nov 10, 2012 4:21 AM GMT+0800

 

[bullseye]

coconut oil have.

deh, got trade oil or nooooot...?:o