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https://hk.news.yahoo.com/大陸若攻台澳洲應否助美?學者:拒絕等於背棄同-011442667.html
大陸若攻台澳洲應否助美?學者:拒絕等於背棄同盟
on.cc 東網
11.8k 人追蹤
2019年2月17日 上午9:14
對於澳洲應否助美協防台灣,學者意見不一。圖為美澳聯合軍演。(互聯網)
陸美台角力持續,令台海局勢日漸緊張。有澳洲學者近日就台海一旦爆發衝突,澳洲政府應採取何種行動而展開激辯,討論重點在於澳洲應否和美國聯手協防台灣,對抗中國大陸。
澳洲國家大學戰略政策研究所教授、國防部前國防戰略及情報事務副部長迪布(Paul Dibb)表示,如果大陸對協防台灣的美軍展開攻擊,而澳洲拒絕介入,《太平洋安全保障條約》(ANZUS)之下的澳洲、新西蘭、美國同盟關係,將面臨風險,更是亞太地區同盟系統的終結。
迪布亦認為,一旦台海發生衝突,除了日本以外,沒有其他美國盟友會願意軍事協防台灣。對澳洲而言,台灣不僅符合《太平洋安全保障條約》中關於「太平洋地區」武裝攻擊的定義,如果澳洲拒絕協防台灣,將被華盛頓視為背棄同盟的承諾。
不過該大學另一教授懷特(Hugh White)提出另一看法。他同意如果澳洲不協防,將削弱甚至摧毀澳美同盟關係,但他認為這不代表澳洲或美國就應該為協防台灣而與大陸一戰。
懷特認為,大陸已成美國強大對手,而且在地理位置上,大陸有極大優勢,美國不太可能取得快速勝利,一旦發生長時間、高代價的戰爭,美國在亞洲的領導力將蕩然無存。
在這種考慮下,「華盛頓面臨的選擇,將是與中國一戰而放棄它在亞洲的地位,還是根本不要與中國一戰」,如果美國真的選擇戰爭,澳洲最好還是置身事外。
If the mainland is attacking Taiwan, should Australia help the United States? Scholar: Rejection is equal to abandoning the alliance
[on.cc east net]
On.cc East Net
11.8k person tracking
February 17, 2019, 9:14 am
Scholars disagree on whether Australia should help the US to defend against Taiwan. The picture shows the US-Australian joint military exercise. (the Internet)
The continued strength of Lu Meitai has made the situation in the Taiwan Strait increasingly tense. Some Australian scholars have recently launched a debate on what action the Australian government should take in the wake of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The discussion focuses on whether Australia should join forces with the United States to defend Taiwan against the Chinese mainland.
Paul Dibb, a professor at the Australian National University's Institute of Strategic Policy and former deputy defense strategy and intelligence officer at the Department of Defense, said that if the mainland attacks the US forces that are defending Taiwan, and Australia refuses to intervene, the Pacific Security Treaty ( The alliance between Australia, New Zealand and the United States under ANZUS will face risks and is the end of the Asia-Pacific alliance system.
Dib also believes that once there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, no other US allies will be willing to cooperate with Taiwan in addition to Japan. For Australia, Taiwan is not only in line with the definition of "Pacific" armed attacks in the Pacific Security Treaty. If Australia refuses to defend Taiwan, it will be regarded by Washington as a promise to abandon the alliance.
But another professor at the university, Hugh White, made another point. He agreed that if Australia does not cooperate, it will weaken or even destroy the Australia-US alliance, but he believes that this does not mean that Australia or the United States should fight against the mainland for the defense of Taiwan.
White believes that the mainland has become a strong opponent of the United States, and in terms of geographical location, the mainland has great advantages, and the United States is unlikely to achieve rapid victory. Once a long and costly war occurs, the leadership of the United States in Asia will disappear.
Under this consideration, "Washington's choice will be to abandon its position in Asia with China, or not to fight China at all." If the United States really chooses war, Australia is better off.
大陸若攻台澳洲應否助美?學者:拒絕等於背棄同盟
on.cc 東網
11.8k 人追蹤
2019年2月17日 上午9:14
對於澳洲應否助美協防台灣,學者意見不一。圖為美澳聯合軍演。(互聯網)
陸美台角力持續,令台海局勢日漸緊張。有澳洲學者近日就台海一旦爆發衝突,澳洲政府應採取何種行動而展開激辯,討論重點在於澳洲應否和美國聯手協防台灣,對抗中國大陸。
澳洲國家大學戰略政策研究所教授、國防部前國防戰略及情報事務副部長迪布(Paul Dibb)表示,如果大陸對協防台灣的美軍展開攻擊,而澳洲拒絕介入,《太平洋安全保障條約》(ANZUS)之下的澳洲、新西蘭、美國同盟關係,將面臨風險,更是亞太地區同盟系統的終結。
迪布亦認為,一旦台海發生衝突,除了日本以外,沒有其他美國盟友會願意軍事協防台灣。對澳洲而言,台灣不僅符合《太平洋安全保障條約》中關於「太平洋地區」武裝攻擊的定義,如果澳洲拒絕協防台灣,將被華盛頓視為背棄同盟的承諾。
不過該大學另一教授懷特(Hugh White)提出另一看法。他同意如果澳洲不協防,將削弱甚至摧毀澳美同盟關係,但他認為這不代表澳洲或美國就應該為協防台灣而與大陸一戰。
懷特認為,大陸已成美國強大對手,而且在地理位置上,大陸有極大優勢,美國不太可能取得快速勝利,一旦發生長時間、高代價的戰爭,美國在亞洲的領導力將蕩然無存。
在這種考慮下,「華盛頓面臨的選擇,將是與中國一戰而放棄它在亞洲的地位,還是根本不要與中國一戰」,如果美國真的選擇戰爭,澳洲最好還是置身事外。
If the mainland is attacking Taiwan, should Australia help the United States? Scholar: Rejection is equal to abandoning the alliance
[on.cc east net]
On.cc East Net
11.8k person tracking
February 17, 2019, 9:14 am
Scholars disagree on whether Australia should help the US to defend against Taiwan. The picture shows the US-Australian joint military exercise. (the Internet)
The continued strength of Lu Meitai has made the situation in the Taiwan Strait increasingly tense. Some Australian scholars have recently launched a debate on what action the Australian government should take in the wake of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The discussion focuses on whether Australia should join forces with the United States to defend Taiwan against the Chinese mainland.
Paul Dibb, a professor at the Australian National University's Institute of Strategic Policy and former deputy defense strategy and intelligence officer at the Department of Defense, said that if the mainland attacks the US forces that are defending Taiwan, and Australia refuses to intervene, the Pacific Security Treaty ( The alliance between Australia, New Zealand and the United States under ANZUS will face risks and is the end of the Asia-Pacific alliance system.
Dib also believes that once there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, no other US allies will be willing to cooperate with Taiwan in addition to Japan. For Australia, Taiwan is not only in line with the definition of "Pacific" armed attacks in the Pacific Security Treaty. If Australia refuses to defend Taiwan, it will be regarded by Washington as a promise to abandon the alliance.
But another professor at the university, Hugh White, made another point. He agreed that if Australia does not cooperate, it will weaken or even destroy the Australia-US alliance, but he believes that this does not mean that Australia or the United States should fight against the mainland for the defense of Taiwan.
White believes that the mainland has become a strong opponent of the United States, and in terms of geographical location, the mainland has great advantages, and the United States is unlikely to achieve rapid victory. Once a long and costly war occurs, the leadership of the United States in Asia will disappear.
Under this consideration, "Washington's choice will be to abandon its position in Asia with China, or not to fight China at all." If the United States really chooses war, Australia is better off.