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https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2018-11-26/doc-ihpevhck7354611.shtml
中国专家：中美不会爆发新冷战 因为美国没那能力
2018年11月26日 11:51 观察者网
0
[文/ 杨洁勉 上海国际问题研究院前院长]
送上门就得拍个够！美军里根号航母访港甲板停满战机1/10
查看原图图集模式
据《香港商报》11月21日报道称，美军核动力航空母舰“罗纳德·里根”号（USS Ronald Reagan，CVN76）访问中国香港。有中国网友乘船出海驶近里根号航母并拍下照片，甲板上停满了F-18战机。（图片来源：zhuhai-eos5 HH-天狼 香港商报）
去年12月以来中美关系的紧张态势引起全世界的关注。特朗普政府持续而系统地在战略、经济、外交和文化领域对中国发起攻击。美国去年12月发表的《国家安全战略》报告将中国定义为战略竞争者和主要对手，五角大楼有关中国军事和安全动向的年度报告也与此相呼应。此外，副总统迈克·彭斯在10月4日指责中国干预美国大选。特朗普总统对中国征收高关税，并威胁如果中国以同样方式回应的话还会加征更多。而在同时，中国决心不开第一枪，但是会反击。中国还与国际社会多数成员一道努力维护自由贸易，反对保护主义，捍卫基于规则的经济秩序。也因此很多人担心会出现一场新的冷战。
主要国家之间的分歧日渐加大，全球体系受到侵蚀。中美两国在南海和台湾问题上采取的立场有可能导致正面冲突。越来越多的人把当前形势与冷战开始时的上世纪40年代末进行比较。一些人甚至谈到一场世界大战的意外爆发。
但一场新冷战并非不可避免。首先，当前世界的大趋势是和平、发展与合作共赢。国际社会大多数成员都明白，在全球化时代它们比以往任何时候都更加相互依存，因此必须接受合作而不是对抗。虽然特朗普政府让美国退出了部分国际机构，包括巴黎气候变化协议、联合国人权委员会、中程导弹条约，但世界不会允许二战前发生的国际秩序崩溃再次重演，国际社会大多数成员仍然是主张合作的。最近的一个例子就是10月在布鲁塞尔举行的第12届“亚欧会议”（ASEM），亚洲和欧洲在这次会议上携手捍卫多边主义，批评保护主义。
其次，不具备新冷战的一般条件。上世纪40年代后期冷战发生时，美国与苏联几乎没有经济、文化和社会联系。后来两个超级大国建立了北约和华约，以及西方经济集团和经互会。现在的世界不再分成两个对立的阵营。整个世界都意识到，新冷战不仅有反作用，而且是灾难性的。全球化世界中的新冷战将为更危险的恐怖主义、极端主义和分裂主义提供温床，加剧社会的分裂和对抗。而且，新冷战会打破全球生产链。与上世纪40年代后期世界在对立的意识形态下分裂不同，如今国际社会绝大多数成员寻求的是进一步发展经济和改善生活。
第三，美国没有能力发动一场全面冷战。即使美国想发动一场新的冷战，也很难找到理由在美国国内说服美国人民，在国际上动员其盟国和友邦。美国人民已经看到足够的证据，证明正常的、合作的对华关系符合其自身利益，他们不会允许这种关系落入新冷战的陷阱。从国际上说，美国许多盟国和友邦都是中国的战略伙伴，它们不会选边站队。欧洲国家和日本正在谋求与中国建立独立的互惠互利关系。美国当局迟早会意识到新冷战是走不通的。
第四，中国会努力避免新的冷战。中国已经与上世纪40年代末和50年代初完全不同，如今中国是世界第二大经济体，拥有极大的影响力。中国正在通过一种新型国际关系努力构建“人类命运共同体”。面对美国发起的攻击，中国一再主张合作是中美关系的唯一正确选择，并坚持不对抗、不冲突、相互尊重、合作共赢原则。因此，中国的力量和智慧非常有助于世界避免新的冷战。
最后同样重要的是，中美关系已有了一些积极发展的迹象。中国在言论和行动上的反击是有分寸的，是克制的。美国国务卿和国防部长已经降低了他们的调门，开始谈及对话和沟通。最重要的是，习近平主席和唐纳德·特朗普总统将在11月底举行的阿根廷G20峰会上会面。人们可以谨慎乐观地认为，理性和政治家风范最终将占上风，中美关系将重新走上正轨。
Chinese experts: China and the United States will not break out of the new cold war because the United States does not have the ability
November 26, 2018 11:51 Observer Network
0
[文/杨洁勉 Former Dean of Shanghai Institute of International Studies]
You have to shoot enough to send it to your door! US military Reagan aircraft carrier docked at the dock full of fighters 1/10
View the original map mode
According to the "Hong Kong Commercial Daily" reported on November 21, the US military nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "USS Ronald Reagan" (CVN76) visited Hong Kong, China. Some Chinese netizens sailed to the Reagan aircraft carrier and took photos. The deck was filled with F-18 fighters. (Source: zhuhai-eos5 HH-Sirius Hong Kong Commercial Daily)
The tension between China and the United States since December last year has drawn worldwide attention. The Trump administration continues to systematically attack China in strategic, economic, diplomatic, and cultural fields. The US National Security Strategy report published in December last year defined China as a strategic competitor and a major rival. The Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military and security trends also echoes this. In addition, Vice President Mike Burns accused China of interfering in the US election on October 4. President Trump imposes high tariffs on China and threatens to add more if China responds in the same way. At the same time, China is determined not to open the first shot, but will fight back. China has also worked with most members of the international community to uphold free trade, oppose protectionism, and defend the rule-based economic order. So many people are worried that there will be a new cold war.
The differences between major countries are increasing and the global system is being eroded. The positions taken by China and the United States on the South China Sea and the Taiwan issue may lead to a positive conflict. More and more people compare the current situation with the end of the 1940s at the beginning of the Cold War. Some even talked about the unexpected outbreak of a world war.
But a new cold war is not inevitable. First of all, the current trend of the world is peace, development and cooperation for a win-win situation. Most members of the international community understand that in the era of globalization they are more interdependent than ever before, and therefore must accept cooperation rather than confrontation. Although the Trump administration has allowed the United States to withdraw from some international institutions, including the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the UN Human Rights Commission, and the Medium-Range Missile Treaty, the world will not allow the collapse of the international order that occurred before World War II to repeat itself. Most members of the international community are still Advocate cooperation. A recent example is the 12th ASEM in Brussels in October, where Asia and Europe joined forces to defend multilateralism and criticize protectionism.
Second, there is no general condition for a new cold war. When the Cold War struck in the late 1940s, the United States had little economic, cultural, and social ties with the Soviet Union. Later, the two superpowers established NATO and Huayue, as well as Western economic groups and exchanges. The world today is no longer divided into two opposing camps. The whole world realizes that the new cold war is not only counterproductive but also catastrophic. The new cold war in a globalized world will provide a hotbed for more dangerous terrorism, extremism and separatism, and intensify social division and confrontation. Moreover, the new Cold War will break the global production chain. Unlike the separatist ideology of the world in the late 1940s, the vast majority of members of the international community are now seeking to further develop the economy and improve their lives.
Third, the United States has no ability to launch a comprehensive cold war. Even if the United States wants to launch a new Cold War, it is difficult to find a reason to persuade the American people in the United States to mobilize its allies and friends in the international arena. The American people have seen enough evidence to prove that normal and cooperative relations with China are in their own interest, and they will not allow this relationship to fall into the trap of the new Cold War. Internationally speaking, many of the US allies and friends are China's strategic partners, and they will not choose to stand side by side. European countries and Japan are seeking independent and mutually beneficial relations with China. The US authorities will realize sooner or later that the new Cold War will not work.
Fourth, China will work hard to avoid a new cold war. China is completely different from the late 1940s and early 1950s. Today China is the second largest economy in the world with great influence. China is striving to build a "community of human destiny" through a new type of international relations. Faced with the attacks launched by the United States, China has repeatedly advocated that cooperation is the only correct choice for Sino-US relations, and adheres to the principles of non-confrontation, non-conflict, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation. Therefore, China’s strength and wisdom are very helpful to the world to avoid a new cold war.
Last but not least, Sino-US relations have shown some signs of positive development. China’s counterattacks in speech and action are measured and restrained. The US Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense have lowered their tone and started talking about dialogue and communication. Most importantly, President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump will meet at the G20 summit in Argentina at the end of November. People can be cautiously optimistic that rational and politician style will eventually prevail, and Sino-US relations will be back on track.
中国专家：中美不会爆发新冷战 因为美国没那能力
2018年11月26日 11:51 观察者网
0
[文/ 杨洁勉 上海国际问题研究院前院长]
送上门就得拍个够！美军里根号航母访港甲板停满战机1/10
查看原图图集模式
据《香港商报》11月21日报道称，美军核动力航空母舰“罗纳德·里根”号（USS Ronald Reagan，CVN76）访问中国香港。有中国网友乘船出海驶近里根号航母并拍下照片，甲板上停满了F-18战机。（图片来源：zhuhai-eos5 HH-天狼 香港商报）
去年12月以来中美关系的紧张态势引起全世界的关注。特朗普政府持续而系统地在战略、经济、外交和文化领域对中国发起攻击。美国去年12月发表的《国家安全战略》报告将中国定义为战略竞争者和主要对手，五角大楼有关中国军事和安全动向的年度报告也与此相呼应。此外，副总统迈克·彭斯在10月4日指责中国干预美国大选。特朗普总统对中国征收高关税，并威胁如果中国以同样方式回应的话还会加征更多。而在同时，中国决心不开第一枪，但是会反击。中国还与国际社会多数成员一道努力维护自由贸易，反对保护主义，捍卫基于规则的经济秩序。也因此很多人担心会出现一场新的冷战。
主要国家之间的分歧日渐加大，全球体系受到侵蚀。中美两国在南海和台湾问题上采取的立场有可能导致正面冲突。越来越多的人把当前形势与冷战开始时的上世纪40年代末进行比较。一些人甚至谈到一场世界大战的意外爆发。
但一场新冷战并非不可避免。首先，当前世界的大趋势是和平、发展与合作共赢。国际社会大多数成员都明白，在全球化时代它们比以往任何时候都更加相互依存，因此必须接受合作而不是对抗。虽然特朗普政府让美国退出了部分国际机构，包括巴黎气候变化协议、联合国人权委员会、中程导弹条约，但世界不会允许二战前发生的国际秩序崩溃再次重演，国际社会大多数成员仍然是主张合作的。最近的一个例子就是10月在布鲁塞尔举行的第12届“亚欧会议”（ASEM），亚洲和欧洲在这次会议上携手捍卫多边主义，批评保护主义。
其次，不具备新冷战的一般条件。上世纪40年代后期冷战发生时，美国与苏联几乎没有经济、文化和社会联系。后来两个超级大国建立了北约和华约，以及西方经济集团和经互会。现在的世界不再分成两个对立的阵营。整个世界都意识到，新冷战不仅有反作用，而且是灾难性的。全球化世界中的新冷战将为更危险的恐怖主义、极端主义和分裂主义提供温床，加剧社会的分裂和对抗。而且，新冷战会打破全球生产链。与上世纪40年代后期世界在对立的意识形态下分裂不同，如今国际社会绝大多数成员寻求的是进一步发展经济和改善生活。
第三，美国没有能力发动一场全面冷战。即使美国想发动一场新的冷战，也很难找到理由在美国国内说服美国人民，在国际上动员其盟国和友邦。美国人民已经看到足够的证据，证明正常的、合作的对华关系符合其自身利益，他们不会允许这种关系落入新冷战的陷阱。从国际上说，美国许多盟国和友邦都是中国的战略伙伴，它们不会选边站队。欧洲国家和日本正在谋求与中国建立独立的互惠互利关系。美国当局迟早会意识到新冷战是走不通的。
第四，中国会努力避免新的冷战。中国已经与上世纪40年代末和50年代初完全不同，如今中国是世界第二大经济体，拥有极大的影响力。中国正在通过一种新型国际关系努力构建“人类命运共同体”。面对美国发起的攻击，中国一再主张合作是中美关系的唯一正确选择，并坚持不对抗、不冲突、相互尊重、合作共赢原则。因此，中国的力量和智慧非常有助于世界避免新的冷战。
最后同样重要的是，中美关系已有了一些积极发展的迹象。中国在言论和行动上的反击是有分寸的，是克制的。美国国务卿和国防部长已经降低了他们的调门，开始谈及对话和沟通。最重要的是，习近平主席和唐纳德·特朗普总统将在11月底举行的阿根廷G20峰会上会面。人们可以谨慎乐观地认为，理性和政治家风范最终将占上风，中美关系将重新走上正轨。
Chinese experts: China and the United States will not break out of the new cold war because the United States does not have the ability
November 26, 2018 11:51 Observer Network
0
[文/杨洁勉 Former Dean of Shanghai Institute of International Studies]
You have to shoot enough to send it to your door! US military Reagan aircraft carrier docked at the dock full of fighters 1/10
View the original map mode
According to the "Hong Kong Commercial Daily" reported on November 21, the US military nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "USS Ronald Reagan" (CVN76) visited Hong Kong, China. Some Chinese netizens sailed to the Reagan aircraft carrier and took photos. The deck was filled with F-18 fighters. (Source: zhuhai-eos5 HH-Sirius Hong Kong Commercial Daily)
The tension between China and the United States since December last year has drawn worldwide attention. The Trump administration continues to systematically attack China in strategic, economic, diplomatic, and cultural fields. The US National Security Strategy report published in December last year defined China as a strategic competitor and a major rival. The Pentagon’s annual report on China’s military and security trends also echoes this. In addition, Vice President Mike Burns accused China of interfering in the US election on October 4. President Trump imposes high tariffs on China and threatens to add more if China responds in the same way. At the same time, China is determined not to open the first shot, but will fight back. China has also worked with most members of the international community to uphold free trade, oppose protectionism, and defend the rule-based economic order. So many people are worried that there will be a new cold war.
The differences between major countries are increasing and the global system is being eroded. The positions taken by China and the United States on the South China Sea and the Taiwan issue may lead to a positive conflict. More and more people compare the current situation with the end of the 1940s at the beginning of the Cold War. Some even talked about the unexpected outbreak of a world war.
But a new cold war is not inevitable. First of all, the current trend of the world is peace, development and cooperation for a win-win situation. Most members of the international community understand that in the era of globalization they are more interdependent than ever before, and therefore must accept cooperation rather than confrontation. Although the Trump administration has allowed the United States to withdraw from some international institutions, including the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the UN Human Rights Commission, and the Medium-Range Missile Treaty, the world will not allow the collapse of the international order that occurred before World War II to repeat itself. Most members of the international community are still Advocate cooperation. A recent example is the 12th ASEM in Brussels in October, where Asia and Europe joined forces to defend multilateralism and criticize protectionism.
Second, there is no general condition for a new cold war. When the Cold War struck in the late 1940s, the United States had little economic, cultural, and social ties with the Soviet Union. Later, the two superpowers established NATO and Huayue, as well as Western economic groups and exchanges. The world today is no longer divided into two opposing camps. The whole world realizes that the new cold war is not only counterproductive but also catastrophic. The new cold war in a globalized world will provide a hotbed for more dangerous terrorism, extremism and separatism, and intensify social division and confrontation. Moreover, the new Cold War will break the global production chain. Unlike the separatist ideology of the world in the late 1940s, the vast majority of members of the international community are now seeking to further develop the economy and improve their lives.
Third, the United States has no ability to launch a comprehensive cold war. Even if the United States wants to launch a new Cold War, it is difficult to find a reason to persuade the American people in the United States to mobilize its allies and friends in the international arena. The American people have seen enough evidence to prove that normal and cooperative relations with China are in their own interest, and they will not allow this relationship to fall into the trap of the new Cold War. Internationally speaking, many of the US allies and friends are China's strategic partners, and they will not choose to stand side by side. European countries and Japan are seeking independent and mutually beneficial relations with China. The US authorities will realize sooner or later that the new Cold War will not work.
Fourth, China will work hard to avoid a new cold war. China is completely different from the late 1940s and early 1950s. Today China is the second largest economy in the world with great influence. China is striving to build a "community of human destiny" through a new type of international relations. Faced with the attacks launched by the United States, China has repeatedly advocated that cooperation is the only correct choice for Sino-US relations, and adheres to the principles of non-confrontation, non-conflict, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation. Therefore, China’s strength and wisdom are very helpful to the world to avoid a new cold war.
Last but not least, Sino-US relations have shown some signs of positive development. China’s counterattacks in speech and action are measured and restrained. The US Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense have lowered their tone and started talking about dialogue and communication. Most importantly, President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump will meet at the G20 summit in Argentina at the end of November. People can be cautiously optimistic that rational and politician style will eventually prevail, and Sino-US relations will be back on track.
