Casino gambling fall in here!!!

[aurvandil]

I will tend to keep a more positive and open mind when buying books. If I like what I read, I just buy, if I don't like, I don't buy. I don't believe in thinking its a rip off. It's a willing buyer, willing seller thing. If there is any rip off, then one should not even step into a casino.

I suppose if you derive value in reading such books/materials, then you should go ahead and buy them.

I personally do not find much value as I have yet to see anything I could not learn by either searching the internet or reading statistical research papers. In fact I would say that if you have a basic understanding of statistics, you can probably learn more from reading statistical research papers.

On the inspiriational portion of the books, I find them a chore and pain to read. If you gamble regularly, you will have encountered all of those things which they write about and probably even more. So unless you are a newbie or don't gamble very often, you will probably find those inspirational sections very cliched.

 

[silverfox@]

I suppose if you derive value in reading such books/materials, then you should go ahead and buy them.

I personally do not find much value as I have yet to see anything I could not learn by either searching the internet or reading statistical research papers. In fact I would say that if you have a basic understanding of statistics, you can probably learn more from reading statistical research papers.

On the inspiriational portion of the books, I find them a chore and pain to read. If you gamble regularly, you will have encountered all of those things which they write about and probably even more. So unless you are a newbie or don't gamble very often, you will probably find those inspirational sections very cliched.

Value depends on person. Why Real Madrid buy Ronaldo at 80million and think he's worth it and to Man Utd why are they willing to sell him at 80million? It's perception. Other clubs will think 80million, siao ah, I can buy how many wingers with that amount of money.

Hyundai can also drive from pt A to pt B, while Merc can also drive from pt A to pt B. A $1000 iphone can make phone calls while a $70 phone can also make phone calls. There are tonnes of people who buy iphones while Philip Yeo said why are there gullible people buying such products? That's difference in perception. We cannot say who is right or who is wrong.

When you buy a book to read, what do you aim from getting out of it? After reading it, you can win the casinos 100%? If that is the case, I think that is the perceived value of the book which everyone thinks they would like to have. Playing in the casino is not about just reading and reading and reading statistical papers. Of course the last thing is thinking the cup is full when there are still so much more to learn.

And the funniest thing is humans always think they have read enough. But the world is so big, knowledge is endless. Reading more wouldn't hurt at all.

Eventually reading is for information and knowledge but playing is a different thing. Subconsciously, you are also here reading what others have posted and learning from their experiences. If not, no one will be reading this thread and the views would not be so high.

To hardcore gamblers who spend hours daily in the casino, their enjoyment would be to go home and rest after a "hard day at work" in the casino.
Reading would probably be the last thing on their mind.

Lastly, I don't wish to argue on what is right and what is wrong, but just to share that knowledge is limitless. If we enclose ourselves and think we have seen and read or do enough, the ones to lose out will be ourselves.

If you have a pair of AA and the dealer has an ACE, will you split your cards?

If you have blackjack and the dealer has an ACE, will you take EVEN money or fight?

 

[Steve111]

From what I read, I don't think you play in a casino often enough, or seen enough. Most of your postings are based on what others have written on the internet and you replicate them here based on theory.

For the lesser unknown, there are a few dealers in Genting who are experienced in spinning the ball in roulette. Their spins over number of years of practice, they can actually spin often enough to a certain sector of the wheel.

That is why Genting are very wary of heavy payouts on certain roulette tables and will halt the game for the security room to view the cam. They also practise table rotation for dealers and game rotations. Even the casinos know that some of their dealers can collaborate with outside patrons to win money from it. Croupiers do not have a high salary and roulette tables are one of those that can help them make some sideline money if they are good in spinning the ball.

There are beatable games, just that what you read on the internet tells you it cannot be won and most laymen will like to believe what they read and never seen or experienced for themselves how others won consistently and not based on luck. Of course with many others who win, there will be more who lost .

What you cited is consider CHEATING and you will need to work with the croupier to pull this off. And please don't try to tell me about biased wheel, because you won't be able to find any nowadays.
Unless you can do something like this group did in London a few years back and let go by the police. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk/4069629.stm

So please name one strategy (besides counting cards in BJ) that tilt the odds in your favour in the long run and can be realistically apply in RWS or MBS.

 

[jw5]

If you have a pair of AA and the dealer has an ACE, will you split your cards?

If you have blackjack and the dealer has an ACE, will you take EVEN money or fight?

To answer your 2 questions,

1. I will split the 2 aces. (not very often that we get 2 aces)

2. I'll fight.

What would you do?

 

[silverfox@]

What you cited is consider CHEATING and you will need to work with the croupier to pull this off. And please don't try to tell me about biased wheel, because you won't be able to find any nowadays.
Unless you can do something like this group did in London a few years back and let go by the police. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk/4069629.stm

So please name one strategy (besides counting cards in BJ) that tilt the odds in your favour in the long run and can be realistically apply in RWS or MBS.

2 years ago in Genting, I was looking at this uncle who places his bets on numbers when the roulette wheel was being spinned. I played for fun by betting on colour, he managed to hit 3 out of 4 times on what he betted. I start to talk to him, he said, you just need to monitor long enough what each croupier does. The croupiers are becoming like automated machines. Just want to spin and do their job. Their spin strength is the same every round and if you study hard enough, will discover the sector they spin to. Croupiers who have worked long enough will have this "automated disease". But need lots of monitoring. And most people don't monitor dealers. They only monitor numbers.

For me I don't like play roulette. But what he says make sense. He can even tell me buy which sector and true enough it opens.

So what you don't read on the internet doesn't mean it never happens.

Is this consider cheating? There are many roulette players here in this thread and they know that this is possible and does not involve cheating. That is why heavy payouts will result in halting of games and croupiers to move around.

I can name you 1 strategy, but you will not apply it correctly.

This was quoted from what I read.

When a winning strategy is presented, people will still lose. Because
When they are supposed to Split their cards, they hit their cards or stand.
When they are supposed to Double down, they chose to hit.
When they are supposed to Surrender, they chose to stand.

Human emotions make people do the wrong things when the opportunity is presented. When odds are tilted in your favour, many people do not take the opportunity, that is why when they are supposed to win more, they lose.

 

[silverfox@]

To answer your 2 questions,

1. I will split the 2 aces. (not very often that we get 2 aces)

2. I'll fight.

What would you do?

1. I was playing with my friend who is very good in blackjack. There was once he stopped me splitting 2 aces when dealer has an ACE. I asked him why. He told me if I do not believe him, just split and let the dealer earn my money. I split both As and I got subsequent 10s for each As. Dealer drew a 10 as well. My split bets were taken by dealer because he has a blackjack while I only had 21 for both As. When splitting As, and a 10 is drawn, it becomes 21 and not considered blackjack. He told me when dealer is on an advantage, I am exposing myself to double danger by bet increment and losing 2. Dealer has more than 30% chance of getting blackjack and after splitting, the max we can get is 21 and not blackjack and splitting As can only draw 1 card each. So there is a high possibility of getting A2, A3, A4, A5, A6. Dealer must draw to 17 and with a ACE counted as 1 or 11, dealer seldom bust with a ACE.

2. When you have a blackjack and dealer has an ACE, take EVEN money or Fight. There are 2 school of thoughts. 1st common school of thoughts is to fight.

Why?
Dealer getting blackjack is 4 out of 13. So 9 chances will ensure the player gets 1.5 payout. Consider we stand and fight, so 9 chances = 9x1.5=13.5units while 4 chances we push with dealer and get 0.

Let's say every unit we bet is $100, 13.5 units will be $1350 divided by 13 chances, if we stay and fight, we can roughly get $104 per blackjack. (average basis) This is what people say in the long run, we will earn extra $4 for every $100 placed. Some blackjacks earn and some blackjacks pushed.

The 2nd school of thoughts agree with the calculation above but in a real life situation, have you ever faced yourself having blackjacks luckily and not getting paid a single cent.

If Dealer has a ACE, player get Blackjack, getting EVEN money is $100 instead of ($150 if player stayed and Dealer did not get blackjack). No one plays 24 hours in a casino 7 days a week. The $4 extra is almost negligible and the saying goes, why be greedy for $4 in long run when the objective is to win during that short session. Nothing beats having money on hand
The other scenario would be when Dealer has a 10,J,Q or K, and player has a blackjack. There is no way player can take EVEN money and if Dealer draws an ACE, there comes the push.

In a short 2 hour blackjack session, such scenarios happen. Books say fight, but the crunch time would still be having money on hand first. It depends on which school of thoughts 1 would like to be in. For me, nothing is more factual that having a good pair of blackjack keeping the money first than the anguish in watching the blackjack fly away when dealer has blackjack and not getting a single cent out of it.

 

[BCR101]

dear bro Silverfox @ Alfrescian 1st of all i am very happy to read yr contributions
again... many thanks ...


Bro Silverfox may i know what is your comments on the

following website ??? many thanks :


.



http://www.playtowin.com.sg/about.htm



.

 

[BCR101]

.


http://www.playtowin.com.sg/basic_bac.htm



.

 

[aurvandil]

1. I was playing with my friend who is very good in blackjack. There was once he stopped me splitting 2 aces when dealer has an ACE. I asked him why. He told me if I do not believe him, just split and let the dealer earn my money. I split both As and I got subsequent 10s for each As. Dealer drew a 10 as well. My split bets were taken by dealer because he has a blackjack while I only had 21 for both As. When splitting As, and a 10 is drawn, it becomes 21 and not considered blackjack. He told me when dealer is on an advantage, I am exposing myself to double danger by bet increment and losing 2. Dealer has more than 30% chance of getting blackjack and after splitting, the max we can get is 21 and not blackjack and splitting As can only draw 1 card each. So there is a high possibility of getting A2, A3, A4, A5, A6. Dealer must draw to 17 and with a ACE counted as 1 or 11, dealer seldom bust with a ACE.

The statistically correct strategy is to split the Aces.

There appears to be quite a bit of confusion between what will happen if you deviate from Basic. There seems to be this idea that if you follow Basic faithfully, you will somehow "win".

This isn't the case. The probabilities in Blackjack are such that the difference in odds in following Basic versus not following Basic are very small for specific scenarios. It adds up to a noticable difference in the odds when you consistently go against Basic across a large number of different scenarios.

Most people who try to use Basic unfortunately tend to remember the times when they followed Basic and lost. They remember the times when they would have won if they went against Basic and used what they felt was their own personalised "best" strategy. It is extremely difficult to convince people they are pursuing a sub optimal strategy as they will always remember the times that it worked and forget about the times when it did not. Often times, it will take a consistent repeated failure of their personalised strategy to shake the faith that it is not working.Depending on the scenario, the odds of this happening repeatedly might be very low, leading to it sometimes never being discovered.

Also, many casual blackjack players have difficulty remembering the 250 cell combination that make up basic strategy. As not everyone wants to invest in the time and energy to memorise the table, such players might want to consider wizard of odds "Simplified Basic". The url for it is here:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack

This strategy has only 21 cells. The sweet part about it is that the reduction in efficieny in terms of the house edge is only 0.14%. Assumming a standard game with a house edge of 0.80%, this means that the house edge is only 0.94% using "Simplified Basic". It is much lower that than no comission baccarat (b6 pay 50%) where the lowest edge is 1.24% betting on player.

 

[beegs]

i agree with what bro silverfox had written. he got the experiences and he is willing to share.many thks for ur infros.good guy and not selfish.

 

[silverfox@]

The statistically correct strategy is to split the Aces.

There appears to be quite a bit of confusion between what will happen if you deviate from Basic. There seems to be this idea that if you follow Basic faithfully, you will somehow "win".

This isn't the case. The probabilities in Blackjack are such that the difference in odds in following Basic versus not following Basic are very small for specific scenarios. It adds up to a noticable difference in the odds when you consistently go against Basic across a large number of different scenarios.

Most people who try to use Basic unfortunately tend to remember the times when they followed Basic and lost. They remember the times when they would have won if they went against Basic and used what they felt was their own personalised "best" strategy. It is extremely difficult to convince people they are pursuing a sub optimal strategy as they will always remember the times that it worked and forget about the times when it did not. Often times, it will take a consistent repeated failure of their personalised strategy to shake the faith that it is not working.Depending on the scenario, the odds of this happening repeatedly might be very low, leading to it sometimes never being discovered.

Also, many casual blackjack players have difficulty remembering the 250 cell combination that make up basic strategy. As not everyone wants to invest in the time and energy to memorise the table, such players might want to consider wizard of odds "Simplified Basic". The url for it is here:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack

This strategy has only 21 cells. The sweet part about it is that the reduction in efficieny in terms of the house edge is only 0.14%. Assumming a standard game with a house edge of 0.80%, this means that the house edge is only 0.94% using "Simplified Basic". It is much lower that than no comission baccarat (b6 pay 50%) where the lowest edge is 1.24% betting on player.

Initially that was what Basic Strategy taught. And even after the session, I was still intrigued and felt weird why I split my ACEs, got 2 sets of 21 and just because the dealer has a blackjack, I lost 2 bets.

My friend said, on paper, yes we should do this, we should do that. But if you are playing for 2 hours in a session and not playing non-stop for weeks and months, we should minimise our danger to a minimum especially when dealer has a strong card. He said if dealer has an ACE and he could surrender, he would surrender all his cards but the casino does not allow it. So the other way is to stop all doubles and splits if dealer is strong.

When dealer has an ACE, he has a hard time busting his cards and higher chance of getting blackjack.
Splitting our ACEs and getting 21 will still get our bets taken up if dealer has blackjack.
If we get A,2,3,4,5,6 for our splits, the card numbers are weak. We cannot draw extra cards.

The splitting of AAs, however, is encouraged when dealer has anything other than ACE.

 

[silverfox@]

dear bro Silverfox @ Alfrescian 1st of all i am very happy to read yr contributions
again... many thanks ...


Bro Silverfox may i know what is your comments on the

following website ??? many thanks :


http://www.playtowin.com.sg/about.htm

I think this website is quite informative and written in local english slang which most singaporeans can understand. There is no harm in reading more and learning more. There is no sure win strategy but strategies that can improve chances of winning. I can't really comment much on roulette because I don't really play them

For baccarat, there are people who like playing on streaks. for me I don't.
For blackjack, there is no way you can count cards in local casinos because they have been replaced with shuffling machines. Anyway, I believe playing blackjack and win is based on splitting and doubling the bets at the right time. We cannot determine the cards that we can get, but we can determine when we want to split and double our bets. That is what we can determine.

If anyone read Fred Renzy's book, he showed an example where there was once he simulated few hundred hands where what will be the outcome if he played "perfectly" based on Basic Strategy and if he played anyhow with 0 strategy. We always have a wrong conception that the last player at the last base can determine whether the dealer win or not, but that is actual bull shit. results showed that the difference is actually not much at all. No one can predict the actual outcome.

 

[aurvandil]

Initially that was what Basic Strategy taught. And even after the session, I was still intrigued and felt weird why I split my ACEs, got 2 sets of 21 and just because the dealer has a blackjack, I lost 2 bets.

As I wrote before, what you experienced is quite typical of people who followed Basic and encountered a series of setbacks. What you experienced while unlikely is not statistically impossible. Such an experience would naturally leave a strong impression with the idea that Basic is "wrong" and your own improvised play gives better results. It would probably take a series of consistent failures of the strategy you are adopting to make you think that maybe what you are playing is not optimal. As the scenario is quite rare (split AAs and dealer beats you with a blackjack), it might take many rounds of playing before you can observe a continuous string of failures of your strategy to possibiliy make you reconsider.

Also I think you mentioned somewhere about playing 1000 hands and formualting a strategy based on that result. If you look at the original Basic, you will see that it has 250 cells. A 1000 hands is therefore insufficent to cover all possibilites, especially the rare ones. With the power of modern computing, most simulations play several million hands to get a firm convergence of the optimum strategy. Depending on how sophisticated you want to be, you can even program in sampling with replacement and sampling without replacement if you are keen to investigate the difference between playing with a continuous shuffler and playing with a manual shoe.

 

[aurvandil]

Also, many casual blackjack players have difficulty remembering the 250 cell combination that make up basic strategy. As not everyone wants to invest in the time and energy to memorise the table, such players might want to consider wizard of odds "Simplified Basic". The url for it is here:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack

This strategy has only 21 cells. The sweet part about it is that the reduction in efficieny in terms of the house edge is only 0.14%. Assumming a standard game with a house edge of 0.80%, this means that the house edge is only 0.94% using "Simplified Basic".

Previously, I had written how you can usually get 1% extra is you buy junket nn chips. Assuming standard Blackjack rules and you play PERFECT Simplified Basic (easy as there are only 21 cells to remember), you actually have a very small advantage of 0.06% over the house. This means it is possible to beat the house in the long run using this combination of techniques.

However before rushing off to the first ferry to Long Jie, please note that the edge is very small. You literally have to bet millions in order to get a decent return.

 

[Heart Break Kid]

Last night I playing Blackjack (min $100) in High Limit section in MBS with two pretty SG ladies in mid-twenties.
One of these ladies is very stunning never expect Singapore have such pretty woman :p

I managed to impress her when I SURRENDER with 13,14,15 or 16 if the dealer is holding a 7,8,9,10 or PICTURE.
And I bought INSURANCE at right time .

She even told another one "if we are unsure, it is better for us to SURRENDER"

Net winning $750 from that Blackjack table with two pretty ladies

 

[Steve111]

Initially that was what Basic Strategy taught. And even after the session, I was still intrigued and felt weird why I split my ACEs, got 2 sets of 21 and just because the dealer has a blackjack, I lost 2 bets.

My friend said, on paper, yes we should do this, we should do that. But if you are playing for 2 hours in a session and not playing non-stop for weeks and months, we should minimise our danger to a minimum especially when dealer has a strong card. He said if dealer has an ACE and he could surrender, he would surrender all his cards but the casino does not allow it. So the other way is to stop all doubles and splits if dealer is strong.

When dealer has an ACE, he has a hard time busting his cards and higher chance of getting blackjack.
Splitting our ACEs and getting 21 will still get our bets taken up if dealer has blackjack.
If we get A,2,3,4,5,6 for our splits, the card numbers are weak. We cannot draw extra cards.

The splitting of AAs, however, is encouraged when dealer has anything other than ACE.

What you have written exposed your lack of understanding of how probability works, you don't change your strategy just because you play for 2 hours instead of 20. You do what give you the best outcome in the long run. Yes, splitting 8-8 and A-A against an Ace is painful and scary, but that's what you ought to do to get the best outcome. Splitting 8-8 against an ace won't make you money, but you will lose less in the long run as compared to just hitting. Most amateurs are not willing to do this, some may even scold you, but they are the stupid one.

Bro aurvandil give a very clear response to your post, I advice to you is to heed his advice.

I still stand by my earlier statement that counting card in BJ (no continuous shuffling) is the only table game that give the player a "mathematical" edge against the house.

Let's be realistic, the casino is not stupid, it's almost impossible to find any biased table/dices nowadays. And please don't tell me about laser gun for roulette or something like that, because those are beyond normal players like us.

I would be foolish if someone show me a strategy that can beat the house in the long run and I refuse to accept it.

 

[silverfox@]

What you have written exposed your lack of understanding of how probability works, you don't change your strategy just because you play for 2 hours instead of 20. You do what give you the best outcome in the long run. Yes, splitting 8-8 and A-A against an Ace is painful and scary, but that's what you ought to do to get the best outcome. Splitting 8-8 against an ace won't make you money, but you will lose less in the long run as compared to just hitting. Most amateurs are not willing to do this, some may even scold you, but they are the stupid one.

Bro aurvandil give a very clear response to your post, I advice to you is to heed his advice.

I still stand by my earlier statement that counting card in BJ (no continuous shuffling) is the only table game that give the player a "mathematical" edge against the house.

Let's be realistic, the casino is not stupid, it's almost impossible to find any biased table/dices nowadays. And please don't tell me about laser gun for roulette or something like that, because those are beyond normal players like us.

I would be foolish if someone show me a strategy that can beat the house in the long run and I refuse to accept it.

So far, my understanding of your posts only chose to depict paper talk. You keep talking about probability and paper statistics but no real life examples to depict situations.

What I am giving is an example of the situation of player having 2As and dealer has an ACE. The end result of what happen when Aces are splitted and dealer gets blackjack.

If you love splitting 2ACES when dealer has an ACE, you can go ahead. To each their own.
Likewise when you have a pair of 8. Since you are very good in saying that splitting 8s against dealer's ACE can get you the best outcome in long run, would you mind doing up all the different scenarios to show everyone here how good it is to split such cards and make a profit? Just by making a statement that splitting As n 8s is the best outcome, doesn't prove that it is the best outcome if no examples are shown. Btw, be a bit more original, don't keep copying links from websites or those gurus and said they said so. You need to be more original by proving with examples and different scenarios to prove that their theory is right. Not just by saying this who and who say so. Playing in the casino is not just about talking and talking. If talking can win,

I don't play 20hours in a row. I spend at most 2 hours in a session because I don't need to be so hardcore sitting there playing blackjack. So within that 2 hours the objective is to win as much as possible.

If you said splitting A-A and 8-8 against dealer's ACE is scary and painful, I do not understand why would anyone be in the right frame of mind to put their bets into double bets, if they are afraid.
What is your purpose of splitting 8? to get 18 or 21?

No one is talking about laser guns or ESP, you are thinking too much into it. Just plain playing blackjack will do.

 

[silverfox@]

Also I think you mentioned somewhere about playing 1000 hands and formualting a strategy based on that result. If you look at the original Basic, you will see that it has 250 cells. A 1000 hands is therefore insufficent to cover all possibilites, especially the rare ones. With the power of modern computing, most simulations play several million hands to get a firm convergence of the optimum strategy. Depending on how sophisticated you want to be, you can even program in sampling with replacement and sampling without replacement if you are keen to investigate the difference between playing with a continuous shuffler and playing with a manual shoe.

I never mention that playing 1000hands and formulating a strategy out of it. I only said playing 1000hands with perfect basic strategy and recording the results and the order of the cards that come out of it. :o:p If you are having difficulty winning after that 1000hands, you will not win even if you simulate a million hands.

 

[silverfox@]

Previously, I had written how you can usually get 1% extra is you buy junket nn chips. Assuming standard Blackjack rules and you play PERFECT Simplified Basic (easy as there are only 21 cells to remember), you actually have a very small advantage of 0.06% over the house. This means it is possible to beat the house in the long run using this combination of techniques.

However before rushing off to the first ferry to Long Jie, please note that the edge is very small. You literally have to bet millions in order to get a decent return.

Now my question will be how is the 0.06% derived? :o

 

[silverfox@]

Last night I playing Blackjack (min $100) in High Limit section in MBS with two pretty SG ladies in mid-twenties.
One of these ladies is very stunning never expect Singapore have such pretty woman :p

I managed to impress her when I SURRENDER with 13,14,15 or 16 if the dealer is holding a 7,8,9,10 or PICTURE.
And I bought INSURANCE at right time .

She even told another one "if we are unsure, it is better for us to SURRENDER"

Net winning $750 from that Blackjack table with two pretty ladies

I just came back from MBS, asked my friend want go high limit section, he said no need, outside empty tables so many. If want bet, just bet higher, anyway per base limit is $5000, enough to bet one. I didn't have a chance to determine my cards because my friend wants to play the whole table by himself. I am only "allowed" to place additional bets on his bets.

We only stayed for an hour. won around $2.2k, he won $14k. Of course, he basically played 5-6 bases at a time and certain bets are $300-$500, while some are $50. At one point someone wanted to open up an additional base. He removed all his bets. Sensing my friend's displeasure, that guy said no need be selfish, let's play together. My friend told him, your purpose is to come here and win money or control the cards? If you want to control the cards, you can play here by yourself. If you want to win money, you place your bets under mine. Because there are others who are adding additional bets under my friend's bases as well, so that guy relented. when we left the table, I think he won close to $4k.

Ultimate motive end of the day, it's just to win money. why bother making decisions if it doesn't make money. I do agree my friend is a bit rude, but the rest of the people who tamba bets under him said its okay no problem to let my friend play the whole table controlling all the bases against the dealer.

Another thing is during the 1 hour, there are 3 occasions when dealer has an ACE and he has blackjack. He said each bet total amount is close to $1000 plus tamba from other players (he bets $500). He asked the rest of the crowd, take $1000 or wait for $1500. They ask him to decide and he took EVEN money. out of 3 occasions, 1 time dealer blackjack and 2 times dealer no blackjack.

He said not playing for $10 or $50. If there is $1000 to be taken, just take first. This amount of money can buy lots of things, rather than have a chance of push and get $0. Why be greedy for the sake of extra $500. But he did add in, If he is playing $10 or $50, he will fight with dealer and not take EVEN money