ah RUN is humbled. RUN is a sad and broke man in real life.
RUN does not know the next move but RUN knows the implications of the current developments.
- commodities prices generally dropped at least 50% in the past 18 months. This is like Lehman crisis
Implications: some banks are still very excited about their metals, oil and gas exposures, and refuse to write down on debt exposure to this sector.
- did u notice that in the past 18 months, JPY drops almost as much as gold, against USD? Japanese economists are so smart to engineer this devaluation swee swee. Today, helpless Kia Sorento, Hyundai Sante Fe costs 30% more than Made-In-Japan SUVs from Nissan, Mitsubishi, Subaru in Singapore.
Implications: We will see some recovery in commodities before US Presidential elections but if commodity prices continue to weaken after Trump's victory or US rate hike, don't be surprise that we will see USDJPY at 150-200 level before June 1, 2017.
- In 2H16, China is expected to be the strongest adopter of helicopter money among major economies in the world. Technically US slowed down QE and in the recent Sendai G7 meeting, UK and Germany hinted that Helicopter money is less effective for Eurozone.
Implications: Now, US and Eurozone feels that Keynesian concept of printing money for increasing consumer demand should be fine-tuned, Global consumption-growth may halt and Chinese are able to see this coming and kept pressing US this month, to reveal how much interest rates will increase in 2H16. By 2H16, China will likely be forced to engage in FX devaluation, madly throwing helicopter money at an unprecedented level and even President Xi needs to quietly allow corruption again.
Just my guess.