[BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 Map

[PAPIB]

From my kopitiam friend. Not the final cut. Long days ahead

Aljunied GRC : WP
Ang Mo Kio GRC : WP
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC : WP / SPP / DPP
Chua Chu Kang GRC : NSP / RP
East Coast GRC : WP
Holland-Bukit Timah GRC : SDP / NSP
Jurong GRC : SDP / NSP
Marine Parade GRC : WP / NSP
Moulmein-Kallang GRC : WP / NSP
Nee Soon GRC : WP / SDP
Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC : WP / SDA
Sembawang GRC : SDP / NSP
Tampines GRC : WP / NSP
Tanjong Pagar GRC : SDP / RP / DPP
West Coast GRC : SDP / RP / NSP

 

[PAPIB]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

Bukit Panjang SMC : SDP / DPP / NSP / RP
Hong Kah North SMC : NSP / SPP / RP / SDP
Hougang SMC : WP
Joo Chiat SMC : WP / NSP
Mountbatten SMC : WP / NSP
Pioneer SMC : NSP / SDP / RP
Potong Pasir SMC : SPP / DPP
Punggol East SMC : WP /SDA
Radin Mas SMC : SDP / RP / NSP
Sengkang West SMC : WP / SDA
Whampoa SMC : NSP / DPP / SPP
Yuhua SMC : SDP / NSP

 

[tanwahp]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

You can hardly call this horse trading as nothing much is traded with so many 3 corner fights. This is how I see will end up:

Aljunied GRC : WP
No opposition party will touch an opposition ward no matter how mad you are. It's as good as signing a warrant to cease existing.

Ang Mo Kio GRC : RP
Not many are interested in contesting the PM. WP did so in 2006 to build a profile for Yaw to prepare him for Hougang. RP may return if there are no takers; KJ enjoys flamboyant moves and publicity.

Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC : SPP
WP has never expressed interest in this ward and the backlash on DPP for contesting against the Chiams will be too big.

Chua Chu Kang GRC : NSP
NSP has the last contested priority and RP can find no excuse to encroach.

East Coast GRC : WP
This is the place WP will put the 2nd A team. It will be the strongest non incumbent team, perhaps even stronger than the Aljunied team. No other party will want to lose their deposit.

Holland-Bukit Timah GRC : SDP
SDP has the last contested priority, don't think others will be interested.

Jurong GRC : NSP
NSP has the last contested priority. SDP will leave it.

Marine Parade GRC : NSP
NSP has the last contested priority, especially when they did well. Don't think WP will wrestle 2 GRCs (incl Tampines) from NSP at one go; there may be a backlash.

Moulmein-Kallang GRC : WP
If NSP wanted to go there, they would have done so in 2011.

Nee Soon GRC : WP
SDP won't want to go for 3CF or MCF with WP.

Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC : WP
WP may wrestle this place from SDA which is a totally spent force. Just expanding to Tampines is not enough for their growing cohort.

Sembawang GRC : SDP
NSP will understand that SDP has contested there twice and not encroach.

Tampines GRC : WP
NSP will grudgingly give way to WP as they fear losing their deposits. As a number of ex-RP in NSP has faded out, NSP can afford to scale down by 5 candidates.

Tanjong Pagar GRC : DPP
As this might be DPP's only team and they will adamant while SDP and RP has other wards to fall back on, so the other 2 is more likely to give way.

West Coast GRC : RP
Not such an attractive ward; SDP and NSP will not mind not going in and let RP return.

 

[PAPIB]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

You can hardly call this horse trading as nothing much is traded with so many 3 corner fights. This is how I see will end up:

The only conclusion I can take away from my friend's information is WP wants to contest all areas surrounding WP's borders. But you do make sense too.

 

[The_Hypocrite]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

Does NSP have any better candidates to contest? they seem to be fading away,,,maybe NSP and WP can combine to take on Marine Parade,,with Wooden gone,,,Marine Parade could be ripe for the takings,,but also not sure if Tin Pot Ling is popular there or will she be as unpopular as she was in 2011

You can hardly call this horse trading as nothing much is traded with so many 3 corner fights. This is how I see will end up:

Aljunied GRC : WP
No opposition party will touch an opposition ward no matter how mad you are. It's as good as signing a warrant to cease existing.

Ang Mo Kio GRC : RP
Not many are interested in contesting the PM. WP did so in 2006 to build a profile for Yaw to prepare him for Hougang. RP may return if there are no takers; KJ enjoys flamboyant moves and publicity.

Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC : SPP
WP has never expressed interest in this ward and the backlash on DPP for contesting against the Chiams will be too big.

Chua Chu Kang GRC : NSP
NSP has the last contested priority and RP can find no excuse to encroach.

East Coast GRC : WP
This is the place WP will put the 2nd A team. It will be the strongest non incumbent team, perhaps even stronger than the Aljunied team. No other party will want to lose their deposit.

Holland-Bukit Timah GRC : SDP
SDP has the last contested priority, don't think others will be interested.

Jurong GRC : NSP
NSP has the last contested priority. SDP will leave it.

Marine Parade GRC : NSP
NSP has the last contested priority, especially when they did well. Don't think WP will wrestle 2 GRCs (incl Tampines) from NSP at one go; there may be a backlash.

Moulmein-Kallang GRC : WP
If NSP wanted to go there, they would have done so in 2011.

Nee Soon GRC : WP
SDP won't want to go for 3CF or MCF with WP.

Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC : WP
WP may wrestle this place from SDA which is a totally spent force. Just expanding to Tampines is not enough for their growing cohort.

Sembawang GRC : SDP
NSP will understand that SDP has contested there twice and not encroach.

Tampines GRC : WP
NSP will grudgingly give way to WP as they fear losing their deposits. As a number of ex-RP in NSP has faded out, NSP can afford to scale down by 5 candidates.

Tanjong Pagar GRC : DPP
As this might be DPP's only team and they will adamant while SDP and RP has other wards to fall back on, so the other 2 is more likely to give way.

West Coast GRC : RP
Not such an attractive ward; SDP and NSP will not mind not going in and let RP return.

 

[xingguy]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

Bukit Panjang SMC : SDP / DPP / NSP / RP
Hong Kah North SMC : NSP / SPP / RP / SDP
Hougang SMC : WP
Joo Chiat SMC : WP / NSP
Mountbatten SMC : WP / NSP
Pioneer SMC : NSP / SDP / RP
Potong Pasir SMC : SPP / DPP
Punggol East SMC : WP /SDA
Radin Mas SMC : SDP / RP / NSP
Sengkang West SMC : WP / SDA
Whampoa SMC : NSP / DPP / SPP
Yuhua SMC : SDP / NSP

My take is that PAP's gerrymandering would dissolved Potong Pasir SMC and absorbed it to another GRC.

The win by PAP in PP is razor thin.

The white scums cannot risk it falling back to opposition again.

 

[3_M]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

The only conclusion I can take away from my friend's information is WP wants to contest all areas surrounding WP's borders. But you do make sense too.

Is your friend some WP insiders? It easy to talk but do they have the logistic to support such endeavor even if they have the candidates? Even if WP have the resources, do they want to risk expanding too fast?

Don't read too much into it. Many parties are basically chopping seats to up the ante during horse trading negotiation without the real intention to contest. It a form of deception.

 

[steffychun]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

My take is that PAP's gerrymandering would dissolved Potong Pasir SMC and absorbed it to another GRC.

The win by PAP in PP is razor thin.

The white scums cannot risk it falling back to opposition again.

If they do that the SPP votes will increase.

 

[PAPIB]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

Is your friend some WP insiders?

She is not from WP. I derive the take away after looking at the pattern of the map. But what you said make sense.

 

[GOD IS MY DOG]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

latest insider info lah..............

whole s'pore become one..........Gargantuan R C.............

100% foolproof plan for PAP to deliver the final knockout blow............

 

[Huat-Ah]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

I really hope GE will come asap...No need to wait so 2 years more :( Sigh

 

[steffychun]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

SDP will forever target H-B and lose not just because of Chee but because that GRC is infested with PAP scholars and wealthy people.

 

[The_Hypocrite]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

The thing is for PP, where can it be absorbed too? if it goes to Toa Payoh, it will tilt the votes against PAP,,,now the pappies are changing tactics to lump the oppo areas together so it dont affect weak pap areas...in the past, strong oppos were absorbed to big pap areas so the oppo votes is mitigated,,,now they lump it in so the oppos win less,,,

My take is that PAP's gerrymandering would dissolved Potong Pasir SMC and absorbed it to another GRC.

The win by PAP in PP is razor thin.

The white scums cannot risk it falling back to opposition again.

 

[3_M]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

The thing is for PP, where can it be absorbed too? if it goes to Toa Payoh, it will tilt the votes against PAP,,,now the pappies are changing tactics to lump the oppo areas together so it dont affect weak pap areas...in the past, strong oppos were absorbed to big pap areas so the oppo votes is mitigated,,,now they lump it in so the oppos win less,,,

The number of electorates in PP is too small and nearby TPB GRC can absorb this SMC without much impact to their result.

 

[steffychun]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

The number of electorates in PP is too small and nearby TPB GRC can absorb this SMC without much impact to their result.

It will still make an impact.

 

[brocoli]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

You can hardly call this horse trading as nothing much is traded with so many 3 corner fights. This is how I see will end up:

East Coast GRC : WP
This is the place WP will put the 2nd A team. It will be the strongest non incumbent team, perhaps even stronger than the Aljunied team. No other party will want to lose their deposit.

Moulmein-Kallang GRC : WP
If NSP wanted to go there, they would have done so in 2011.

Nee Soon GRC : WP
SDP won't want to go for 3CF or MCF with WP.

Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC : WP
WP may wrestle this place from SDA which is a totally spent force. Just expanding to Tampines is not enough for their growing cohort.

Tampines GRC : WP
NSP will grudgingly give way to WP as they fear losing their deposits. As a number of ex-RP in NSP has faded out, NSP can afford to scale down by 5 candidates.

you talk as if WP can field enough candidates... if you are an insider, you would know that they have more or less given up on Nee Soon ...

as for Tampines GRC, they are pretty quiet on that front and totally no movement in Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC ...

i expect more walkover in 2016 for PAP

 

[tanwahp]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

you talk as if WP can field enough candidates... if you are an insider, you would know that they have more or less given up on Nee Soon ...

as for Tampines GRC, they are pretty quiet on that front and totally no movement in Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC ...

i expect more walkover in 2016 for PAP

No one is talking about 87 candidates but 23 + 11 is 34 candidates. Isn't an impossible target.

I said in a previous post that WP's presence in PAP wards is not as intense as the 2006-2011 period which led them to win Aljunied. But that doesn't mean they have given up on any ward.

The third opposition parties haven't expanded much, but there are more of them now. If they work things out, all wards that WP did not touch will be contested. I expect 0 walkovers for the first time since 1963.

 

[brocoli]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

No one is talking about 87 candidates but 23 + 11 is 34 candidates. Isn't an impossible target.

I said in a previous post that WP's presence in PAP wards is not as intense as the 2006-2011 period which led them to win Aljunied. But that doesn't mean they have given up on any ward.

The third opposition parties haven't expanded much, but there are more of them now. If they work things out, all wards that WP did not touch will be contested. I expect 0 walkovers for the first time since 1963.

how many of the 23 are still around? the entire nee soon team is gone... the heir apparant is missing... how many of the candidates are really MP material???

it not about about how many you can field? how many are in for the long haul and really capable... you seen more interested in beating the other opposition than WP working for the people

Png used to be quite fiery in election speech... i cant remember a single moment of his in parlimanent. ...
LLL is really not MP material... there is a huge difference between being a grassroot leader/emcee and being a representative in the legislative ...

Pritam also all fiery but in parliament all cockup...

Sylvia was looking really hypocritical... with her lame excuses on all the town council issues.

CSM was really super overhyped ...

The only fart i heard from glenda was she did a TV show in penang for her cosmetic product...
apparently she told the world she was in insurance and also teaching part time ... how did those end up?
all we know is she got knock up by some FT and got married shot gun...
liddat also can be MP ar?

the low point for me was really Bricks In Blue sing and dance... they really thought they are celebrity huh ??? they really jump the shark

your stars are not performing in parliament... ... dun come here and talk big

so what you can contest the most seats...
so what you can win the most opp seats...

cant deliever at all after all...

 

[tanwahp]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

I am not expecting angels to contest the elections. Nor would I put an angel yardstick on WP and use a different yardstick on the rest. That's called "singling out", something GMS likes to do to WP.

When I put the same yardstick on their policies, I find WP's policies stand out, and resonate with me.

You are entitled to your views and the course of action you want to take.

 

[TwitSeng]

Re: [BREAKING]:Rumoured Preliminary Results of Round 1 Horse Trading Base on GE2011 M

by then we shall see la...i believe some constituencies will disappear