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makapaaa

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Good life for Familee, Jobs for FTrash and NS for Sporns! Btw, where is our $258B???</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>

Published March 2, 2009
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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Singapore not in dire straits, says PM Lee
He points out that it has the resources to deal with the downturn and has put out a good Budget

By ANNA TEO
IN HUA HIN, THAILAND
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FOR all the pervasive doom and gloom, Asia is not in crisis and Singapore is not in dire straits, says Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, invoking a 'sense of balance' about the state of the economy.

<TABLE class=picBoxL cellSpacing=2 width=100 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=caption><TD>Mr Lee: Keep a sense of balance in handling bad news about the economy </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>'It's different from the (1998) Asian crisis when we were (at) ground zero,' he said during an interview with the Singapore media at the close of the Asean summit yesterday in Hua Hin.
Then, exchange rates in Asia crashed, buildings in some cities stood half built, there were property bubbles galore.
'This time, Asia is basically sound but the problem has come from the rest of the world and pushed our trade way down, our exports way down, our tourism numbers way down, our growth way down,' he said.
While Singapore's official 2009 growth forecast remains a 2 to 5 per cent contraction, Mr Lee said in a CNBC interview earlier this week that the economy could well contract by 8 per cent if Singapore's exports were to fall by a third.
'Looking at the world, there is reason for worry. Looking at Singapore, what we can do, we have done to our utmost ability and generally we have done the right things.'
So despite the gloom, 'we are not in a bad position', Mr Lee said, pointing out that Singapore has the resources to deal with the downturn and has put out a good Budget.
'I know people say, why didn't you help households more directly, but the right way to help people now, to us anyway, is not to give them vouchers or coupons or hongbaos to spend but to help them keep their jobs.'
And there are the projects in the pipeline, like the two integrated resorts in the works, to look to, he added.
'I was talking to (Thai Prime Minister ) Abhisit yesterday. He asked me what's our tourism number. I said minus 10 per cent. He said that's not bad. I said, why? He said 'we may be minus 20 per cent'.
'So (we were) sympathising, sharing woes, with one another. But basically in time, the demand will come back and we will pick up again, and we live through these.'
Asked to comment on the Hong Kong Budget unveiled last week, and whether Hong Kong might then recover ahead of Singapore, Mr Lee said: 'No, we're not in a race with Hong Kong. When we come out (of the crisis) depends on the world; it doesn't depend on us.'
What matters is how Singapore handles the downturn. 'We have chosen one way of doing this. Hong Kong has done a different way. We went for a big package this year. Hong Kong decided not to have a big package. They're in a different situation. We're not concerned about Hong Kong and I don't think Hong Kong is concerned about Singapore. We're concerned about our situation internally, and the broader situation in Asean and in the world.'
With America - Asia's main engine of growth - likely to be 'only half firing at best for years to come', the region will have to count on China and India, which are revving up their domestic demand.
'As they pick up, it will help us, but unfortunately the lift will be less than America and Europe and we have to accept that.'
Meanwhile, it's best to 'keep a sense of balance' in handling the seemingly unending spate of bad news about the economy, he said, when asked to comment on suggestions that people stop harping on rising retrenchments and just focus on saving jobs.
'On the one hand, acknowledge and be conscious of the severity of the problem. On the other hand, don't psych yourself into a funk that you're unable to get out of bed in the morning.'


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makapaaa

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=452 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>Published March 2, 2009
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</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>STOCKS
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top width=452 colSpan=2>STI seen sliding to 1,200-1,400 pts this year on more negative news

By VEN SREENIVASAN
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT
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MAJOR downside economic risk in 2009 and 2010. Rising unemployment. Falling consumer and business spendings. Tumbling exports. They are not exactly the stuff that inspire investments in equities, or any other asset class.

Little surprise, then, that the Singapore market has underperformed the region. And as UBS pointed out recently, it is testing the October 2008 lows.
'Macro conditions are universally poor and worsening,' UBS noted in its Feb 25 report. 'However, we think Singapore-specific factors do not justify the wide divergence in relative performance.'
Maybe not, but an increasing numbers of market experts - especially those more upbeat - are gradually conceding that Singapore's Straits Times Index could end up somewhere in the 1,200-1,400 points before this year is out.
In a Feb 23 report, DBS Vickers Securities saw the benchmark index hitting 1,300 by the second quarter, which it reckons would be the appropriate time to start value-hunting in the market. For the time being, it advised players to 'sell into the bounce' in the short term.
Deepening recession, uncertainty about US bank nationalisation, lack of confidence in US President Barack Obama's US$787 billion stimulus plan and mounting worries about the health of Eastern European economies and banks - these are all putting pressure on both equities and currencies, according to DBS.
The DBS Vickers report came on top of Morgan Stanley's prediction last week that the economy would dip in all four quarters of this year. 'We expect a wide U-shape path with a trough in 2Q-3Q09,' Morgan Stanley said.
Singapore bellweathers' latest earnings reports do not inspire much confidence either. United Overseas Bank last Friday joined two other local cohorts to post sharp drop in earnings for 2008. The stock fell below the $10 levels after the bank reported a 34 per cent drop in FY08 earnings.
Many in the market, meanwhile, have been reeling from the sharp selldown of China stocks, following the fiasco at erstwhile highly regarded Fibrechem.
The bet is likely to be on the market sliding further on more negative newsflows - and potential shocks in the weeks, perhaps months, ahead. At 1,600, it will take barely a week of slides to knock the ST Index down to the sub-1400 levels. Expectations of Wall Street's performance will continue to dictate where the market is heading daily. But before Wall Street wakes up, traders will watch the Hang Seng Index for second-by-second direction, until the Hong Kong market closes at 4pm. Then all eyes will shift to Europe as it opens. So any hint of bad news anywhere will likely be felt here.
Wall Street already seems sceptical of Mr Obama's stimulus plans. Major indices are about 20 per cent down for the year to date, and Friday's declines have left the Dow tottering just above the key 7,000 points level.
Technically, if the Dow loses the 7,000 mark, it's unlikely that the STI can hold on to 1,600 points level. And even if it bounces, investors should beware of being caught in yet another bear trap.
The bottom line is this: with so much uncertainty and turmoil, it is probably best to take a short-term trading view and hope that your timing skills (and luck) hold out. Meanwhile, use the opportunity provided by every rebound to sell into strength.

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