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Another nail down the coffin for Herd immunity strategy

nightsafari

Alfrescian
Loyal
No one has ever been conferred immunity from the common cold or influenza. Everyone has been infected repeatedly, some even lost loved ones due to the cold and flu, but not a soul in the world has become immune to the cold and flu.

The idea that people will become immune to the Wuhan Flu after infection is to assume right from the start that this strain of flu is totally different from other strains, and that it is more resembling of chicken pox, or measles. There is no evidence to suggest that.

That is why we LOCKDOWN!
I dunno whether lockdown or not is correct so I don't comment.

But as for cold and influenza viruses, we actually do get immune to what we caught. It's just that it evolves so rapidly that there are new strains coming out every year. It's like never ending warfare with a very smart enemy. You come up with a defence, they come up with a new soldier.

With Wuhan virus it appears that there are 3 strains so far. I dunno how quickly these 3 evolved or how quickly they will evolve. If only 3 and done, then once you've caught all 3, you won't be getting them again. If by next year you have 9 then get ready to live with this virus....:unsure:
 

nightsafari

Alfrescian
Loyal
If nobody is ever going to become immune then a vaccine is not going to work either so I guess we have to lockdown forever for a virus that is no worse than the flu.
in terms of death rates metrics, you are probably right about no worse than the flu, but from what I've heard the course it runs is worse and by that measure, it is worse. is it worth locking down for? I'm recusing myself from this argument either way because I'm not entirely sure about the totality of how this virus behaves so have at it.

You can lock yourself down but I'm getting on with my life. I take far greater risks cycling on the streets 5 days a week.

and.... that's why I don't go cycling on the streets unless it's a divided pathway and cars are separated from cycling traffic. I find that degree of risk to life and limb unpalatable.
 

Leongsam

High Order Twit / Low SES subject
Admin
Asset
in terms of death rates metrics, you are probably right about no worse than the flu, but from what I've heard the course it runs is worse and by that measure, it is worse. is it worth locking down for? I'm recusing myself from this argument either way because I'm not entirely sure about the totality of how this virus behaves so have at it.



and.... that's why I don't go cycling on the streets unless it's a divided pathway and cars are separated from cycling traffic. I find that degree of risk to life and limb unpalatable.

I have had the flu.... severe chest pain, flashing lights in my brain, high fever, delirious (according to others because I don't remember). 3 weeks to get back on my feet and 6 months before I was back to normal.

If I get Covid-19 and survive I'll be back here to give a description of what I went through.
 

nirvarq

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Look, the sudden test and found so many are asymptomatic transmission in the Bangalas already tell us something. When the Wuhan sex worker had 250+ customer why after 1 month we only have less than 200 infected cases. Because it spreads but not everyone has critical cases even at 17,101 we have only 21 critical and at the earlier stages remember sick 5 days MC ?

It's already living with us and it's just a mild 'NEW' flu ok name it COVID 19 if that makes you happier.
 

Leongsam

High Order Twit / Low SES subject
Admin
Asset
Look, the sudden test and found so many are asymptomatic transmission in the Bangalas already tell us something. When the Wuhan sex worker had 250+ customer why after 1 month we only have less than 200 infected cases. Because it spreads but not everyone has critical cases even at 17,101 we have only 21 critical and at the earlier stages remember sick 5 days MC ?

It's already living with us and it's just a mild 'NEW' flu ok name it COVID 19 if that makes you happier.

It seems that misery loves company. Some people are exploring every possible way of making the situation look as bleak as possible.
 

nirvarq

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
It seems that misery loves company. Some people are exploring every possible way of making the situation look as bleak as possible.


Sadly yes i don't understand is it out of ignorant or malice or just mindless habit.......... /shrug
 

nightsafari

Alfrescian
Loyal
I have had the flu.... severe chest pain, flashing lights in my brain, high fever, delirious (according to others because I don't remember). 3 weeks to get back on my feet and 6 months before I was back to normal.

If I get Covid-19 and survive I'll be back here to give a description of what I went through.
I have had the flu once or twice too. really felt like someone took a hammer to me, couldn't get off the bed and was quite debilitated although I think yours was worse. but I remember not feeling afraid. If i just lay down, rest and hydrate I'll get through this. The infection I had some weeks ago, I remember feeling that this thing could do some serious harm if I'm not healthy over and above a regular flu. Something about how my immune system just could not deal with it head on like it was bypassing some of the defences. I definitely felt fear this time.

Now I'll be the 1st to say that I can't prove a lot of this stuff. That I don't even know for sure what infection I had and all that. And I readily accept that my mind could be playing tricks on me as far as my feelings on this are concerned, but I've also heard from a nurse who recovered from a diagnosed case who thought it was nothing worse than the flu, but she now has changed her tune. I didn't have the chance to interview her to dig deeper unfortunately.

The statistics do favour your conclusion regarding fatality risk and how it should be addressed. However humans as a group are not logical most of the time. This novel virus is seen as an unusual and additive risk over and above risks already accounted for. With the human mind, any novel risks tend to be viewed with a higher degree of suspicion versus accustomed risks. Kind of life how people perceive more crime when they see more foreigners they haven't seen before. Hence the knee jerk reaction.

Bottom line for me is that although some numbers are in, I'm not ready to conclude for one side or the other until we've got more info.
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
If nobody is ever going to become immune then a vaccine is not going to work either so I guess we have to lockdown forever for a virus that is no worse than the flu.

You can lock yourself down but I'm getting on with my life. I take far greater risks cycling on the streets 5 days a week.

If you're not playing devil's advocate here (which i often do) you honestly should seek psychiatric treatment. You're sounding more and more like those end-of-the-world cults.


Vaccines have been developed for some of the influenza strains - my bad. So yes, it is true that people can develop immunity from coronoviruses. The WuFlu should be no exception.

HxNy family of coronoviruses came to mankind via animal to human transmission, so a comparison can be made here. Only that WuFlu has a higher mortality rate, so unlike HxNy breakouts, we need much more stringent quarantine and even lockdown procedures when an outbreak within a country occurs.

When the WuFlu becomes endemic and mortality rates starts to come down and resemble the HxNy family, then we can indeed do away with these stringent lockdown and quarantine procedures. Now, the virus is new and still being researched, that's why these extreme measures are necessary.

As for psychiatric help, I do need it. You should have seen the stuff I masturbate to nowadays. More scary than the shit I type here! I'm talking about stuff worse than Whore Jinx ...
 

mojito

Alfrescian
Loyal
Eventually the economic toll will cause people to start killing themselves. In Asia's case if the fatality rates are accurate, we will probably see more deaths by suicide than from the virus if the economy doesn't re-open.

Who are we going to sacrifice? Impossible to save both groups. Eventually there has to be calibration between death by covid-19 vs death by economic failure.

And then there is the 3rd option: moving to a more permanent universal basic income where only 20-30% of the economy is working while the rest twiddle their thumbs. This would have been feasible if we were technologically 20-30 years ahead of today and the machines can do most of the work for us.
What talking you? The bangla FWs, the maids already doing most of the work for us. It is already feasible now! :thumbsup:
 

syed putra

Alfrescian
Loyal
Energy is currently cheap
Same as other commodities due to lockdown.
Gahmen can easily revive the economy by giving free electricity for say 3-6 months. Or a 50% discount. That is way better than wage subsidies.it will Get businesses to ramp up production to take advantage of the situation.
 
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