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AMDK say Fed See South Landing in 2024, but not a baseline scenario, why hah?
- Thread starter k1976
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Powell says soft-landing not baseline, but it's sure in the forecast
By Ann SaphirSeptember 21, 20236:38 AM GMT+8Updated 4 hours ago
[1/2]U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the release of the Fed policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S, Acquire Licensing Rights Read more
WASHINGTON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell declined on Wednesday to say he expects a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, but that sure was the picture painted by policymakers in their newest economic forecasts.
Fed officials, indeed, appear to be growing more confident than ever in being able to cool inflation without a recession or a sharp rise in unemployment.
They expect economic growth to slow next year to about 1.5%, from 2.1% this year, and for the unemployment rate to go no higher than 4.1%, the latest quarterly summary of their projections shows. That's just a smidge higher than the 4% level they see as sustainable in the long-run, and only a few tenths more than its current 3.8% level.
Just three months ago they anticipated U.S. GDP to grow only 1.1% next year, after just 1% this year, and for the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5% next year and still be there at the end of 2025.
But asked during a press conference if he would now call the soft landing a baseline expectation, Powell demurred.
"No, I would not do that," he said. "I've always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome...ultimately, this may be decided by factors that are outside our control at the end of the day, but I do think it's possible."
The rosier economic picture also came with projections for fewer rate cuts next year than envisioned three months ago.
Policymakers now expect to end next year with short-term borrowing costs at 5.1%, a half percentage point higher than they anticipated in June.
The dialed-back pace of anticipated policy easing next year goes hand in hand with what policymakers expect to be uneven progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation goal, with inflation seen ending this year a little higher than projected in June.
Policymakers now expect to end next year with short-term borrowing costs at 5.1%, a half percentage point higher than they anticipated in June.
The dialed-back pace of anticipated policy easing next year goes hand in hand with what policymakers expect to be uneven progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation goal, with inflation seen ending this year a little higher than projected in June.
Fed officials now see the personal consumption expenditures price index at 3.3% at year end, versus June's forecast of 3.2%, and at 2.5% by the end of next year. For 2025, they upped expected inflation slightly to 2.2% from the 2.1% projected in June, and their first look at 2026 showed them reaching their 2.0% inflation goal that year.
Fed officials expect further reductions in the policy rate as well, to 3.9% by the end of 2025 - above the 3.4% they projected in June - and to 2.9% by the end of 2026.
Fed officials expect further reductions in the policy rate as well, to 3.9% by the end of 2025 - above the 3.4% they projected in June - and to 2.9% by the end of 2026.
Daft Sinkies should only worry about having enough food to eat, clean water to drink and clean air to breathe.
Don't worry about interest rates, COE prices, branded goods etc. All distractions.
Anyway about 95% of them are vaxtards, the time bomb is ticking within their bodies. Each day could be the last. So no need to project so far into the future, or hold grandiose long term goals and aspirations.
Don't worry about interest rates, COE prices, branded goods etc. All distractions.
Anyway about 95% of them are vaxtards, the time bomb is ticking within their bodies. Each day could be the last. So no need to project so far into the future, or hold grandiose long term goals and aspirations.
All is not lost.... Let heng ong huat lahDaft Sinkies should only worry about having enough food to eat, clean water to drink and clean air to breathe.
Don't worry about interest rates, COE prices, branded goods etc. All distractions.
Anyway about 95% of them are vaxtards, the time bomb is ticking within their bodies. Each day could be the last. So no need to project so far into the future, or hold grandiose long term goals and aspirations.
Many sinki is wet dreaming to hoot their new EVs as wellDaft Sinkies should only worry about having enough food to eat, clean water to drink and clean air to breathe.
Don't worry about interest rates, COE prices, branded goods etc. All distractions.
Anyway about 95% of them are vaxtards, the time bomb is ticking within their bodies. Each day could be the last. So no need to project so far into the future, or hold grandiose long term goals and aspirations.
SG is fucked big time… COE hit over $100K this month, Loan interest rate will most likely hit 5.1 to 5.5 percent by end of this year and next year….
And with 9% GST in 3 months time, we are really fucked big time
Many are trying hard to get SGD based asset as safe Haven bids since USD is drying up in global market
Thinking about it.... Internal consumption will be reduce, hence buying more breathing space for SG to brave thru the pro-long economic uncertainty ahead...
https://www.valuechampion.sg/how-much-salary-afford-condo-in-singapore-mortgage-loan
This will be on many people mind for a whole variety of reasons
This will be on many people mind for a whole variety of reasons
https://www.todayonline.com/singapo...rates-peak-soon-us-fed-rate-hike-2001-2220636
Not sure, if this is a baseline as Fed seem to hinting more hikes ahead
Not sure, if this is a baseline as Fed seem to hinting more hikes ahead
https://www.straitstimes.com/busine...ing-as-home-loan-rates-stay-high-in-singapore
Not too long ago.... Recap In 160 Holy nEws
SINGAPORE - High interest rates in the US have filtered down to Singapore, driving up the costs of a mortgage, which is one of the biggest financial commitments for most households.
As a result, vulnerabilities are emerging in some segments of the population – such as those earning less than $5,000 a month and those aged 59 to 77 – according to a DBS Bank study and the latest trends report from the Central Provident Fund (CPF) Board.
Not too long ago.... Recap In 160 Holy nEws
SINGAPORE - High interest rates in the US have filtered down to Singapore, driving up the costs of a mortgage, which is one of the biggest financial commitments for most households.
As a result, vulnerabilities are emerging in some segments of the population – such as those earning less than $5,000 a month and those aged 59 to 77 – according to a DBS Bank study and the latest trends report from the Central Provident Fund (CPF) Board.
Fed are already saying that interest hikes is coming. Estimated to hit 5.1 to 5.5 percent in Dec and 2024
Many will wet their pants De woh..
Yeah... Most important is happy jiu hao ler for good 70.4% de
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