Moneyed slice of thai mango today. VAT up, no less than 8%?
VAT set to be increased
Up 1 percentage point at least, says minister
Bangkok Published: 2/12/2014 at 06:00 AM
Newspaper section: Business
Value-added tax (VAT) may be raised by at least one percentage point next year to finance the government's planned loosening of fiscal policy by increasing the fiscal-2015 budget by 12-13% from this year's.
Finance Minister Sommai Phasee said the raise would be the first step towards increasing the VAT rate, but no concrete decision on the hike had been made yet.
"It has to be increased by at least a percentage point, maybe even two points, but there'll be further discussion about this," he said.
The National Council for Peace and Order earlier approved an extension of the 7% rate for another fiscal year, to Sept 30, 2015, with the aim of smoothing domestic consumption, which has faltered since the second half of last year.
The proposed VAT hike will be next on the agenda after the inheritance and land and buildings taxes have won National Legislative Assembly approval.
Raising VAT appears to be a challenging move as seen from the fact that previous administrations opted to keep the 7% rate lest their popularity subside. The tax was introduced in 1992 at a rate of 10% but immediately slashed to 7% at the request of business operators who felt the rate was too high.
Mr Sommai said revenue collection was expected to meet the target of 2.325 trillion baht for this fiscal year started Oct 1, while revenue collection in 2016 was projected to be even higher due to tax reform measures, particularly the land and buildings tax as well as VAT.
"Tax revenue collection in 2016 is expected to increase reasonably, and this will contribute to an increase in government spending, which will be higher than this year's expenditure," he said.
Mr Sommai said there was also room for a greater fiscal deficit in 2016, in which the deficit could be at the same or higher levels compared with 2015.
Amid expectations of cabinet deliberation next month, land and buildings valued at more than 1 million baht would be subject to tax, with unused or vacant land to be charged at a progressive rate every three years but not exceeding a maximum level of 4% of the appraised value, according to the draft of the land and buildings tax bill.
The Finance Ministry will deliberate its fiscal-2016 budget in mid-January, and the size of state expenditure is expected to be 12-13% higher, Mr Sommai said, adding that the government would use this budget to develop the economy, social security programmes, education and healthcare services.
The fiscal-2016 budget is projected at 2.88 trillion baht, up by some 300 billion baht from the sum of 2.575 trillion baht for the fiscal-2015 budget, he said.
In the meantime, the economy is expected to grow by up to 4% next year, but the rate could be higher, given additional government investments, said Kobsak Pootrakul, an executive vice-president of Bangkok Bank.
However, the private sector's confidence could increase further if the government can initiate certain investment projects to become more tangible, he said.
Mr Kobsak said despite ostensible higher economic growth next year, the most crucial factor was laying the fundamentals for both economic development and reform in the long run.
Inflation is projected to remain subdued on the back of a decline in energy prices, he said. The Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee is not expected to lower its policy interest rate further since exports have recorded a recovery, domestic consumption in the high-earning segment has improved and government spending will resume, Mr Kobsak said.
He said the rate-setting council would assess economic data in next year's first quarter before deciding whether to hike the benchmark interest rate in the second quarter.
Pichit Akrathit, chairman and chief executive of Asia Wealth Securities Co, said the SET index was expected to reach 1,800 points next year as a result of excessive financial liquidity coming from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan coupled with an improved outlook for a global economic recovery.
State investment policies and domestic political stability also support the index reaching that threshold, he said.