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So, it seems the political maneuvering has started for the Prince to succeed the Father and walk in the path of the Grandfather. It started with the minor cabinet reshuffle when Teo Ser Luck resigned and Jo Teo and Desmond Lee are now promoted to full Minister. We will see more and more moves coming up in the next 2.5 years or so. All moves now have one final goal in mind. The placement of Li Hongyi into Singapore Politics.
The 2 leading candidates for the successor were Li Hongyi and Li Shengwu. LSW is now an academic in Harvard and does not appear to be in a quick hurry to return home, so he is out of the running. Hongyi studied at MIT under a PSC scholarship from Infocomm Development Authority, and is now a “consultant” working there to fulfill his bond. I note with interest too, that for want of a better description, IDA is a civilian surveillance organization. One of its role is to monitor all media in Singapore, and it can fine or penalize outlets showing racial, sexual or inappropriate political content. As well, they have the ability to monitor all electronic communications in Singapore as they are the developers and manager of the Singapore high speed broadband system and are the gatekeepers to all personal data in Singapore because they run the Personal Date Protection commission. In the past, IDA has been a client of the Hacking Team, meaning they have bought services to hack websites of organizations that may not be friendly to the PAP. See attached link for the article.
https://www.ifsecglobal.com/the-sin...tries-using-spyware-for-digital-surveillance/
Of all the places that Hongyi could have landed a PSC scholarship in a bloated govt bureaucracy, he chose to land in IDA. Not the Statistic department, not Inland Revenue, etc. If you wanted to be like a Edgar Hoover type character, one who knows where all the skeletons of his allies and enemies are buried as well as how to use and continue to accumulate leverage on them, well, IDA is where you would go.
The choice of IDA is a dead give away as to the future plans for him. After all, Putin was the former Head of the KGB. And judging by the number of Singapore politicians that cannot keep their pants on, there is a lot of leverage to be gained here to curry allies later on.
The succession plans were somewhat torpedoed by Aunty Lee Weil Ling who out and accused the Father of trying to perpetrate a political dynasty. She is right. But after the public furore, the succession plans have to proceed more carefully and more slowly. The big question to be asked was how do you take a Political nobody and make him in rapid succession into a Minister and not incur the wrath and concern of the population. They tried this in the 2011 GE when Chan Chun Sing ran for political office shortly after resigning from the SAF. Even though he was a brand new MP when his GRC won, he was made immediately into a Minister of State, with zero experience in his portfolio. This is the same CCS, with the goofy look, and the penchant to make stupid and inappropriate remark and to date have not done squawk at all in the govt. After CCS won in the election, it gave the PAP confidence in that they could field any idiot person and they would win. Tin Pei Ling being the other example. In the 2015 GE, they pulled more of the same with Ng Chee Meng, who became a Minister in cabinet even though he was a first time MP.
How is all this relevant to the Hongyi’s case? These examples are the test cases for Hongyi. If Singapore voters will accept the most unappetizing candidates, then certainly, they will accept the grandson of the great founder. And frankly, to be honest, Hongyi already has more political acumen then the above mentioned. He and his brothers and cousins regularly discussed political affairs at the once a week dinners that he attend at his Ye Ye’s home. He has in the past accompanied the great founder on trips to the US and even been present at some of the meetings with other heads of state. I will not go as far as to say that he was being groomed by his Ye Ye. But certainly, he is being groomed by his father and mother. Or else, Aunty Ling will not accuse LHL of perpetrating a political dynasty, if Hongyi had resolutely said he is not interested in politics. In fact, LHL denied his sister's assertion of a political dynasty by saying that all positions were based on meritocracy. Well, if he position as Minister under his father was an example of "meritocracy", then we can safely say that should Hongyi also be working under his father, it will also be "meritocracy"?
So, how will this happen? I think the next elections will be in 2020, at which time, Hongyi’s bond will have expired and he will be free to do anything he wants. They will run him as a candidate in a strong GRC, and he will win, and be in Parliament as a rookie MP. Here, the scenario gets a little murkier. The PAP will say it’s not nepotism because LHL would have stepped down from his PM post. SO, no one can accuse the father of putting his son in and overseeing him as the great founder did with LHL. But then, expect LHL to still hold the reins in the form of Senior Minister or Minister Mentor. Meaning, the new PM, whether its Teo Chee Hean, or Heng will be a seat warmer. Tharm has already said he does not want the post. Heng might be a dark horse given his prior health problems. Which leaves Teo.
The question then is do they rapidly move Hongyi into a Ministerial post, maybe a Minister of State or something like that? Or do they keep him as a full time MP for another election or 2? I think the latter is more likely. He will still be in his early 30s and even the youngest current Ministers are in their 40s. Even though the father and grandfather achieved minister level in their 30s, he has not been openly promoted and groomed like his father was. However, if they make him work full time as an MP and then let him win another election, he will make Minister after that. So, let’s say 2025 or 2026.
Do you know what is the difference between the pioneer generation of leaders and the current? The Pioneer generation were smart, had ability, and had to constantly prove themselves. Why? Because Lee Kuan Yew did not tolerate fools and he did not tolerate mistakes. The current leadership is characterized by a complete lack of talent, skill, and ability. Instead, blind loyalty and obedience is the premium that is required. This makes it easy to put someone like Hongyi into position. The will pledge their loyalty and obedience to him, the new Prince. He will not have to prove anything. Any mistakes he makes and any false steps he makes will be glossed over and covered up. And one day, after an appropriate length of time, the seat warmer will step down because he was chosen to be loyal and obedient in the first place.
So, In the end, I am sure we will see a third generation Lee in the game. And once again, I believe this to be driven by the women in the family. Like Madam Kwa pushed for LHL, Ho Ching is pushing for Hongyi. We shall see how things unwind down the road.
*Note that this article is completely made up of my personal suppositions and theory. I do not claim to have any inside sources or privileged information.
The 2 leading candidates for the successor were Li Hongyi and Li Shengwu. LSW is now an academic in Harvard and does not appear to be in a quick hurry to return home, so he is out of the running. Hongyi studied at MIT under a PSC scholarship from Infocomm Development Authority, and is now a “consultant” working there to fulfill his bond. I note with interest too, that for want of a better description, IDA is a civilian surveillance organization. One of its role is to monitor all media in Singapore, and it can fine or penalize outlets showing racial, sexual or inappropriate political content. As well, they have the ability to monitor all electronic communications in Singapore as they are the developers and manager of the Singapore high speed broadband system and are the gatekeepers to all personal data in Singapore because they run the Personal Date Protection commission. In the past, IDA has been a client of the Hacking Team, meaning they have bought services to hack websites of organizations that may not be friendly to the PAP. See attached link for the article.
https://www.ifsecglobal.com/the-sin...tries-using-spyware-for-digital-surveillance/
Of all the places that Hongyi could have landed a PSC scholarship in a bloated govt bureaucracy, he chose to land in IDA. Not the Statistic department, not Inland Revenue, etc. If you wanted to be like a Edgar Hoover type character, one who knows where all the skeletons of his allies and enemies are buried as well as how to use and continue to accumulate leverage on them, well, IDA is where you would go.
The choice of IDA is a dead give away as to the future plans for him. After all, Putin was the former Head of the KGB. And judging by the number of Singapore politicians that cannot keep their pants on, there is a lot of leverage to be gained here to curry allies later on.
The succession plans were somewhat torpedoed by Aunty Lee Weil Ling who out and accused the Father of trying to perpetrate a political dynasty. She is right. But after the public furore, the succession plans have to proceed more carefully and more slowly. The big question to be asked was how do you take a Political nobody and make him in rapid succession into a Minister and not incur the wrath and concern of the population. They tried this in the 2011 GE when Chan Chun Sing ran for political office shortly after resigning from the SAF. Even though he was a brand new MP when his GRC won, he was made immediately into a Minister of State, with zero experience in his portfolio. This is the same CCS, with the goofy look, and the penchant to make stupid and inappropriate remark and to date have not done squawk at all in the govt. After CCS won in the election, it gave the PAP confidence in that they could field any idiot person and they would win. Tin Pei Ling being the other example. In the 2015 GE, they pulled more of the same with Ng Chee Meng, who became a Minister in cabinet even though he was a first time MP.
How is all this relevant to the Hongyi’s case? These examples are the test cases for Hongyi. If Singapore voters will accept the most unappetizing candidates, then certainly, they will accept the grandson of the great founder. And frankly, to be honest, Hongyi already has more political acumen then the above mentioned. He and his brothers and cousins regularly discussed political affairs at the once a week dinners that he attend at his Ye Ye’s home. He has in the past accompanied the great founder on trips to the US and even been present at some of the meetings with other heads of state. I will not go as far as to say that he was being groomed by his Ye Ye. But certainly, he is being groomed by his father and mother. Or else, Aunty Ling will not accuse LHL of perpetrating a political dynasty, if Hongyi had resolutely said he is not interested in politics. In fact, LHL denied his sister's assertion of a political dynasty by saying that all positions were based on meritocracy. Well, if he position as Minister under his father was an example of "meritocracy", then we can safely say that should Hongyi also be working under his father, it will also be "meritocracy"?
So, how will this happen? I think the next elections will be in 2020, at which time, Hongyi’s bond will have expired and he will be free to do anything he wants. They will run him as a candidate in a strong GRC, and he will win, and be in Parliament as a rookie MP. Here, the scenario gets a little murkier. The PAP will say it’s not nepotism because LHL would have stepped down from his PM post. SO, no one can accuse the father of putting his son in and overseeing him as the great founder did with LHL. But then, expect LHL to still hold the reins in the form of Senior Minister or Minister Mentor. Meaning, the new PM, whether its Teo Chee Hean, or Heng will be a seat warmer. Tharm has already said he does not want the post. Heng might be a dark horse given his prior health problems. Which leaves Teo.
The question then is do they rapidly move Hongyi into a Ministerial post, maybe a Minister of State or something like that? Or do they keep him as a full time MP for another election or 2? I think the latter is more likely. He will still be in his early 30s and even the youngest current Ministers are in their 40s. Even though the father and grandfather achieved minister level in their 30s, he has not been openly promoted and groomed like his father was. However, if they make him work full time as an MP and then let him win another election, he will make Minister after that. So, let’s say 2025 or 2026.
Do you know what is the difference between the pioneer generation of leaders and the current? The Pioneer generation were smart, had ability, and had to constantly prove themselves. Why? Because Lee Kuan Yew did not tolerate fools and he did not tolerate mistakes. The current leadership is characterized by a complete lack of talent, skill, and ability. Instead, blind loyalty and obedience is the premium that is required. This makes it easy to put someone like Hongyi into position. The will pledge their loyalty and obedience to him, the new Prince. He will not have to prove anything. Any mistakes he makes and any false steps he makes will be glossed over and covered up. And one day, after an appropriate length of time, the seat warmer will step down because he was chosen to be loyal and obedient in the first place.
So, In the end, I am sure we will see a third generation Lee in the game. And once again, I believe this to be driven by the women in the family. Like Madam Kwa pushed for LHL, Ho Ching is pushing for Hongyi. We shall see how things unwind down the road.
*Note that this article is completely made up of my personal suppositions and theory. I do not claim to have any inside sources or privileged information.
