The monetary authority tightened five times since October 2021 before opting to pause in 2023. Since its last decision in January, data showed core inflation quickened. That came days after remarks by MAS Deputy Managing Director Edward Robinson that the current policy setting keeps the currency band on an “appropriately restrictive posture to ensure that core inflation declines to 2% by early 2025.”
Bank of America foresees that the MAS will dial down its hawkish tone from January.
“As such, MAS might express greater conviction for further disinflation through 2025 by acknowledging that some domestic cost pressures have started to ease,” the bank’s economists wrote. At the same time, it’s “likely to remain vigilant to inflation risks, including wage-price spiral given still tight labor market conditions and de-anchoring of expectations.”