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Homebuyers already locked out of market
George Megalogenis From: The Australian March 29, 2010 7:20AM 30
OFFICIAL forecasts for the nation's housing shortage have worsened, with more than 100,000 prospective homebuyers already locked out of the market by June 30 last year.
The ongoing gap between demand and supply will be greater than previously feared, as all levels of government and the building industry struggle to keep up with Australia's world-beating population growth.
By 2029, the combined shortfall could reach 500,000 homes and apartments.
The housing shortage is most critical in NSW, which accounts for almost one third of the nation's total population but is contributing less than 20 per cent of the nation's new dwelling starts at the moment.
There is concern at senior official levels that Sydney is about to experience another debilitating price boom as rising demand coincides with inadequate dwelling stock.
The report of the Rudd Government's national housing supply council, to be released next month, will show that estimates for the existing shortage and the gap from here on have been revised up after a switch to a more detailed formula.
The global financial crisis has added to the problem as property developers were squeezed for funds in 2008-09.
Australia is building fewer houses per head of population growth than at any time on record, according to new research from economist Saul Eslake.
Last year there were just 333 dwellings completed for every 1000 increase in population, less than half the rate that applied 10 years earlier, Mr Eslake said.
Population pressures are creating a perfect political storm across federal, state and local governments as rising prices lock out first-time buyers, lower-income earners face rental stress as they are forced to compete with the middle class, and public services such as schools, hospitals and transport are stretched.
One measure of the affordability crisis is that average home loan sizes in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia have now caught up with those in what was traditionally the nation's hottest market, NSW.
Wayne Swan used his weekly economic note to talk down the idea of population growth for its own sake.
"Whether it be population growth or economic growth, growth should always be about making tangible improvements to the quality of life of Australians over time," the Treasurer said.
"For us to make sure that happens, the answer isn't to stop growing, but to grow differently -- to grow intelligently and sustainably."
The defensive language confirms a paradox of Australia's claim to being the only First World nation to avoid the GFC -- voters want growth, but without the extra people that come with it.
Last week the Bureau of Statistics confirmed that Australia's population grew 2.1 per cent last year, almost double the world average of 1.1 per cent.
On present trends, Australia's population of 22 million would rise to 34 million by 2050.
Kevin Rudd has talked up the idea of federal intervention in planning cities.
Writing in The Australian today, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh says Canberra should provide a national population and infrastructure plan.
"Most importantly, the plan should include nationally consistent projections for future births and migration numbers," she writes. "After all, how can state and local governments plan effectively unless we know the population size we are planning for, and the infrastructure funding that will support the growth?"
Ms Bligh confirms the potential for a public backlash on population growth. "I can understand the attraction of saying, `Enough is enough: close the borders and cap the population'," she says.
But the Premier says it would be impractical to stop Queensland's population from growing because that would require the deportation of 9600 residents a year to offset natural increase, as well as punitive house prices and the introduction of death duties to deter new arrivals.
Federal Labor sources say the Labor states have consistently underestimated population growth. But they blame the Howard Government for not taking a more active interest in land supply issues at state level, a position they did not hold in opposition, when they publicly defended the record of Labor states.
Over the past decade, when a federal Coalition government faced coast-to-coast state Labor governments, the average annual rate of new dwellings completed was just 538 for every 1000 increase in population. This compared with averages of 708 per 1000 for the 1990s and 585 per 1000 for the 1980s.
Federal Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek said the supply problem was years in the making.
"It was left in the too-hard basket by the previous government and was made worse by reduced access to finance during the global recession," Ms Plibersek said.
"Reduced access to finance slowed building, particularly in the multi-unit sector.
"The Government fully understands the social and economic consequences of a lack of supply of affordable housing. That's why our housing policies are directed at increasing supply and why housing construction featured strongly in our stimulus package."
George Megalogenis From: The Australian March 29, 2010 7:20AM 30
OFFICIAL forecasts for the nation's housing shortage have worsened, with more than 100,000 prospective homebuyers already locked out of the market by June 30 last year.
The ongoing gap between demand and supply will be greater than previously feared, as all levels of government and the building industry struggle to keep up with Australia's world-beating population growth.
By 2029, the combined shortfall could reach 500,000 homes and apartments.
The housing shortage is most critical in NSW, which accounts for almost one third of the nation's total population but is contributing less than 20 per cent of the nation's new dwelling starts at the moment.
There is concern at senior official levels that Sydney is about to experience another debilitating price boom as rising demand coincides with inadequate dwelling stock.
The report of the Rudd Government's national housing supply council, to be released next month, will show that estimates for the existing shortage and the gap from here on have been revised up after a switch to a more detailed formula.
The global financial crisis has added to the problem as property developers were squeezed for funds in 2008-09.
Australia is building fewer houses per head of population growth than at any time on record, according to new research from economist Saul Eslake.
Last year there were just 333 dwellings completed for every 1000 increase in population, less than half the rate that applied 10 years earlier, Mr Eslake said.
Population pressures are creating a perfect political storm across federal, state and local governments as rising prices lock out first-time buyers, lower-income earners face rental stress as they are forced to compete with the middle class, and public services such as schools, hospitals and transport are stretched.
One measure of the affordability crisis is that average home loan sizes in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia have now caught up with those in what was traditionally the nation's hottest market, NSW.
Wayne Swan used his weekly economic note to talk down the idea of population growth for its own sake.
"Whether it be population growth or economic growth, growth should always be about making tangible improvements to the quality of life of Australians over time," the Treasurer said.
"For us to make sure that happens, the answer isn't to stop growing, but to grow differently -- to grow intelligently and sustainably."
The defensive language confirms a paradox of Australia's claim to being the only First World nation to avoid the GFC -- voters want growth, but without the extra people that come with it.
Last week the Bureau of Statistics confirmed that Australia's population grew 2.1 per cent last year, almost double the world average of 1.1 per cent.
On present trends, Australia's population of 22 million would rise to 34 million by 2050.
Kevin Rudd has talked up the idea of federal intervention in planning cities.
Writing in The Australian today, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh says Canberra should provide a national population and infrastructure plan.
"Most importantly, the plan should include nationally consistent projections for future births and migration numbers," she writes. "After all, how can state and local governments plan effectively unless we know the population size we are planning for, and the infrastructure funding that will support the growth?"
Ms Bligh confirms the potential for a public backlash on population growth. "I can understand the attraction of saying, `Enough is enough: close the borders and cap the population'," she says.
But the Premier says it would be impractical to stop Queensland's population from growing because that would require the deportation of 9600 residents a year to offset natural increase, as well as punitive house prices and the introduction of death duties to deter new arrivals.
Federal Labor sources say the Labor states have consistently underestimated population growth. But they blame the Howard Government for not taking a more active interest in land supply issues at state level, a position they did not hold in opposition, when they publicly defended the record of Labor states.
Over the past decade, when a federal Coalition government faced coast-to-coast state Labor governments, the average annual rate of new dwellings completed was just 538 for every 1000 increase in population. This compared with averages of 708 per 1000 for the 1990s and 585 per 1000 for the 1980s.
Federal Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek said the supply problem was years in the making.
"It was left in the too-hard basket by the previous government and was made worse by reduced access to finance during the global recession," Ms Plibersek said.
"Reduced access to finance slowed building, particularly in the multi-unit sector.
"The Government fully understands the social and economic consequences of a lack of supply of affordable housing. That's why our housing policies are directed at increasing supply and why housing construction featured strongly in our stimulus package."
In my suburb, mummy working is a shameful thing. Generally, they considered parents to be irresponsible if they dump their kids to before/after care.. We do not have a problem on affordability once both mummy and daddy are working..
