China Now is the most watched current affairs show in PRC.
Zhang Wei Wei is a well-known public intellectual. This is a good summary of how the Chinese side sees the tariff war and economic/technology/geopolitical situation. (AI translation.)
When Trump was reelected last year, foreign media kept asking us Chinese how we viewed Trump. I said, "Most Chinese probably think Trump is slightly better than Biden. We find Biden too hypocritical, while Trump is relatively more straightforward. My personal assessment of Trump has been consistent: he has a fairly accurate read on many of America's problems, but the prescriptions he offers are often wrong, disastrously wrong.
For example, he recognizes that the US has long overextended its national strength and is becoming a failing state. He acknowledges that the world has become multipolar and that the US lacks the capacity to manage the entire globe. He sees that Ukraine stands no chance of winning and decides to stop wasting American money, seeking instead a compromise with Russia. He dismantled more or less the USAID, the global headquarters of color revolutions, which has brought immense suffering to many nations and also caused significant losses to the US itself.
However, as the leader of a major power, Trump's vision, character, experience, and knowledge are all vastly inadequate to fulfill his 'Make America Great Again' agenda. Trump's most defining trait is his unpredictability. After all, he co-authored 'The Art of the Deal,' and his favorite business tactic is to keep shifting positions, catch opponents off guard, apply maximum pressure, and then strike a deal on the most favorable terms for him.
Thus, he announced increasingly higher tariffs on all Chinese goods, convinced that China needed him and expecting a phone call from China's leadership. But what he got instead was not a call from Beijing but progressively stronger countermeasures, including equivalent tariffs up to 125% on all US imports, a long list of American entities added to export control lists, and strict restrictions on the export of rare earth materials and related goods.
New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman commented, "Trump sends a message to the world and to the Chinese. If it were a book, it would be called 'The Art of the Squeal.' In reality, his reckless tariff policies triggered massive sell-offs of US Treasury bonds, which could very well collapse the American financial system. Many also suspect that Trump's flip-flopping is a way to manipulate the stock market, raising tariffs then suspending them, shorting and then buying back, turning Wall Street into a casino for his family. After all, he's not just a real estate tycoon but also a former casino owner. This speaks volumes about America's institutionalized corruption.
Trump's constant policy reversals have left him with no credibility. American businesses and consumers are utterly confused, and an economic recession coupled with higher inflation seems now inevitable. Every Chinese understands the wisdom of a saying from Chinese philosopher Laozi over 2,000 years ago: 'Governing a great nation is like cooking a delicate dish. A prudent and consistent approach is the key.' But Trump doesn't get it. Flip-flopping has always been a cardinal sin in Chinese statecraft culture.
Trump's approach not only fails to establish any authority but also destroys trust. Under Trump's leadership, the US no longer behaves like a decent major power. He has revived America's imperialist tradition, first targeting submissive allies like Canada and Denmark, then extorting Ukraine for $500 billion in mineral rights. This shows not only that America's allies are easy prey for his bullying but also that the US has lost all moral authority globally, leaving it increasingly isolated.
Nobel Prizewinning economist Joseph Stiglitz recently wrote in Handelsblatt that America's word is now worthless on the world stage. He noted that the US accounts for less than 20% of the global economy, while the remaining 80%, represented by most other nations, has united against the US.
When the US-China trade war began in 2018, I gave a speech at Harvard, saying that China's leadership is looking ahead to 2050, while Trump's vision is stuck in 1950. Now, with his latest tariff offensive, he seems determined to drag the US back to 19th-century mercantilism. His tariff calculations, his blind faith in protectionism, and his belief that high tariffs can bring manufacturing back to America reveal his ignorance and myopia.
Not long ago, the New York Times interviewed me. I told them that the tariff war started by the US would ultimately backfire. Our research shows that over 90% of the increased tariffs were actually shouldered by American businesses and consumers. The outcome this time will be no different.
In another interview with Russian news agency TASS, I told them that when Trump threatened last year to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%, I said then, 'Please tell President Trump he can raise them to 600%. It wouldn't make a difference.' Our research shows that America's economic dependence on China far exceeds China's reliance on the US. Most Chinese exports to America are essential goods for which the US has no easy substitutes.
As for Trump's wish to bring companies like Apple and Microsoft back to the US, their supply chains are deeply embedded in China. Within a 150 km radius, they can source every component they need. This ecosystem took China decades to build. The US has been de-industrializing for 30 to 40 years. How could they possibly replicate us?
Recently, publications like the New York Times and The Times have compared Trump to Gorbachev. Just as Gorbachev's radical shock therapy accelerated the Soviet Union's collapse, Trump's reckless policies may well push America down the same path. Conservative writer Jonathan V. Last penned an article titled 'The Age of America Is Over,' arguing that the US empire is committing suicide. Trump's tariff war is just the latest move that wrecked the US economy, dealt a fatal blow to NATO, and dismantled the American world order.
In just 71 days, the Soviet Union collapsed in part due to fiscal ruin. The US is now in a similar predicament, with $37 trillion in debt and annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion. America is already insolvent, surviving only on the residual credibility of its financial myth, which makes many people believe that US bills are risk-free assets. But Trump's tariff chaos has exposed the fragility of the US financial system, including its treasuries, triggering a rare simultaneous crash in stocks, bonds, and the dollar. The massive selloff of US treasuries is the core issue. America's ability to borrow new debt to pay off old debt is dwindling, and a fiscal crisis looms.
The late Norwegian scholar Johan Galtung, who accurately predicted the Soviet collapse, forecast in 1999 that the American empire would collapse around 2020. He introduced the concept of 'magic,' the idea that empires rule through an illusion of superiority, whether it's the myth of the shining city upon a hill, the sanctity of American institutions, or the perceived invincibility of the dollar and treasury bonds. Once this magic fades, the empire falls.
On April 5th, The Economist published a cover story titled 'How America Could End Up Making China Great Again.' It argued that while Trump builds walls, China is reshaping global trade relations with its development model gaining widespread acceptance among developing nations. I said back in 2018 that the US would lose its tech war against China, and we should remember to award President Trump a special medal for exceptional contributions to China's success.
The irony is that Trump never intended to help China. He dreams of containing China, but his reckless actions have only accelerated China's rise. The reason is simple: China's path represents, as a Chinese saying goes, the righteous way of the world. The righteous will have many supporters, while the unrighteous will have few. The Chinese model is gaining traction, while America's is faltering.
I believe this tariff war forced upon China by the US, along with China's resolute, precise, and powerful counterstrikes, will show the world which nation is truly the largest and strongest economy. The answer is China, not the US. The world has changed completely. Just compare Trump's crude, chaotic tariffs with China's steady, precise, sharp, and innovative countermeasures.
Let me briefly explain what innovative means here. We are using a 21st-century smart economy-based, full-industry-chain approach to dismantle America's 19th-century tariff barriers, in other words, a blow from a higher dimension. We are also advancing new technological standards to keep global trade rules in line with changing times.
By the way, Chinese people refer to Trump by nicknames like 'Chuan Pu' or 'Trump the Face-Changing King,' 'Dong Wang,' or 'Trump the Nation Builder.' These nicknames are not just humorous but also reflect the discernment, sophistication, and wit of ordinary people from a civilizational state like China. Doesn't that terrify our rivals?
