PAP wants George Yeo to lose

[Debonerman]

It really puzzles me.. So what if WP is in Parliament?
Will you gain expert skills or become a doctor overnight?
Will you become richer and a better person?

Go focus on yourself lah!
Stop mind-masturbating that the opposition are going to improve your lives

There goes the neignbourhood. Off for teh with Malays.

 

[Windsor]

We will know it on 8th for sure

Sure many people are discontented, but the Opposition has to slog and really campaign. I am more happy if I am proved wrong.

But this will be a wake up call for PAP. WKS wont make it to the cabinet. Happy?

Thanks for the reply but no I won't be happy only with the demise of WKS. With PAP in total control, WKS will still be around enjoying his early retirement. I want heads to roll and I will not be happy until I see more than 3 principal heads gone for good. Too bad that Zorro clown escaped for I wish he goes too. If that does not happen the song "I am Leaving On A Jet Plane" comes to mind come 8th May.

 

[serenditpity]

Yep all well I hv been out of singapore for almost 2 yrs, just making occasional trips. I am back as of Jan 2011. That explains my absence here

U r right. GY's loss is significant because GCT would have lost a key ally. I am not so sure abt OYK's credentials. Would have to watch him

This time, the man who's playing the conductor in hiding is TCY, not WKS. My guess is that WKS will not find a place in the cabinet.

welcome back Serendipity!...hope all is well wif u...

what u say seems to make sense...harry n GCT each sending mix signals...LHL n WKS singing fm the same hymn book...probably also not in pap's interest to come out on the 8th 87-0...this is afterall 21stC singapore not 20thC singapore...the way i c it...only loss to pap if aljunied does fall wld be Ong Ye kung...looks like a gd solid character to me...GY just make him general ambassador supremo...the other 2 put into 'pap retirement' plan problem solved...probably the only unhappy chap in this scenario wld be GCT...

 

[serenditpity]

While I wd like to believe that the margin difference can be just 2-3%, I think the reality is likely to be very different. I would think GY's shocked face was that he was not given East coast as was promised earlier, but Aljunied. Poor guy must hv been praying that LTK would stay put in Hougang. As I said in a different post, for anyone who was clued in, it was clear that LTK will go to aljunied.

The loss of aljunied was something that even the PAP factored in. If ever there was a cadre revolt (slim chances) he has already fortified himself by having all his boys in the cabinet. Notice how he came out strongly in support of LSS!

I would see it as a different point of view.

The number of "new citizens" in tampines is not high enough ( 10%) to make any significant impact on the result, however, anger might be one thing, many residents in tampines could still give GMS the vote on account of poor or bad service they been getting.

the result could be very close ( by 2 to 3%).

As for Low moving in Aljunied, its no secret of his intention, but how the information of him moving from Hougang to Nee Soon to MK did created quite a few comfusion among some PAP upside. Nee Soon grassroots was found scrambling when news of Low could be coming and Yacoh was wondering if his days were numbered as he had been hugely unpopularly even in his own ward. GY's shock face saids it all as he was assured that Low wont go Aljunied.

As for LHL, if the idea of kicking out GY would mean consolidating his power within PAP against GCT, then he seem to forgot that the cadres would not see defeat or loss of a GRC as anything to cheer about even if PAP still retain power. lost of Aljunied would mean open challenge to his role within PAP and when old man dies, that challenge would turn out inro open revolt

Guess who would be the winner of it all? Certaintly not GCT.

so tampines is for GMS to lost afterall.

Aljunied is for Low to win

and PAP is for LHL to loss it all.

 

[lockeliberal]

Dear Seren and Scroo

Here's my prediction and how it differs from PAP central because I believe they have been getting the GIGO syndrome of on the ground reporting :_)). A national swing from 66 to 58% +-1 made worse locally by the unpopularity and popularity of individual ministers and the strength of the team against them

Tier One

Aljunied at 55% +- 2

Tier One. five

These are the canaries in the mine. I expect Mounbatten and Joo Chiat to fall at 55% +-2 . If its on the high side then WKS is in for a very bad nite as these results will come in before Aljunied. PP LC to hold +-0.5 Hougang 58 +- 2

Tier two

TP BTP, EC MK all go from safe seats to 50 50 fights +- 0.5 I expect it to be that close, however how close tier two is will depend on the momentum built in Tier One and One.5 If the numbers are low enough then tier two is safe if the numbers are bad then PAP is in for a worst than worst case nite

The need for LHL and TCH if scroo and seren is right to try to save george or reduce his losing margin is precisely the manner in which the dominos fall and the need to break opposition momemtum. Even if George is gone they have to reduce his losing margin to prevent tier two from being swamped



Locke













QUOTE=serenditpity;719078]Marine Parade is still PAP without a doubt[/QUOTE]

 

[SneeringTree]

Dear Seren and Scroo

Here's my prediction and how it differs from PAP central because I believe they have been getting the GIGO syndrome of on the ground reporting :_)). A national swing from 66 to 58% +-1 made worse locally by the unpopularity and popularity of individual ministers and the strength of the team against them

Locke: I wish I am a fraction as optimistic as you. I am predicting a national swing of 66 to 61% +/- 3%. Making Aljunied GRC the only one that might scrape through a win for the opposition. Hougang holds. And PP a very close call but I expect LC to miss by 1-2%.

 

[SpareTyre]

Locke: I wish I am a fraction as optimistic as you. I am predicting a national swing of 66 to 61% +/- 3%. Making Aljunied GRC the only one that might scrape through a win for the opposition. Hougang holds. And PP a very close call but I expect LC to miss by 1-2%.

1 GRC is enough to give me hope.

Sure, I'd be glugging champagne if PAP dropped 20 seats, but 1 GRC is the absolute minimum for me to sleep well that night.

 

[cheowyonglee]

Old timers in this forum know about my sources.

heh bro, you really impress me xia!!!

 

[cheowyonglee]

Marine Parade is still PAP without a doubt

Bro, although i wish Marine Parade to lose, but with your good internal source, i think i better accept the fact that NSP will not win Marine Parade.Sigh...!!!
Bro, how about Tampines?Any chances for NSP???

 

[RandomNexus]

Heard this from a reliable source amongst the highest echelons of the PAP.

The PAP was well aware that Aljunied is a risky proposition for them. This was clear even in 2006 and GY just scraped through.

The PAP also knew that this time LTK is going to contest the Aljunied GRC, especially after the electoral boundaries were redrawn. They had factored that in and they knew that Aljunied is a goner in that case.

There was apparently considerable thinking to move GY to East coast GRC so that his success is guaranteed. This was mooted by GCT. It carried through the day and apparently GY was also sure that he would be moved to East Coast.

Suddenly for no apparent reason, Lim Swee Say was moved to East Coast and GY was retained at Aljunied. Apparently the decision was taken by LHL, TCH and WKS. No one knows the rationale for that decision.

There are 2 theories going around:

One, they didn't want to sacrifice Lim Swee Say and wanted a safe seat for him.
Second, some sections in the PAP believed that GY was gaining international stature (much more than the PM himself) and wanted to cut down his size. He was also considered to be GCT's man and LHL wanted him out respectably.

One should also note that it is only GCT who is making statements supporting GY. LHL is conspicuous by his silence on GCT. LKY's threat to Aljunied residents (leaving residents confused as per GY) is actually sounding the death knell for GY.

So, PAP wants GY to lose.

If this has even some truth to it, one can easily speculate that there's enough dissent even within PAP ranks and one just has to wait for Mentor Lee to exit for the dissent to come out in the open.

Based on last night's appraisal at PAP's HQ, they have given up on Aljunied and Hougang.

Everyone is keenly watching the Bishan - Toa Payoh GRC as that seems to be at risk now.

Thinking thru what you just said. My take is that it does not make political sense to shift GY to a safe seat in East Coast as it will rise to perception that they are giving out on Aljunied. This bodes ill and will propel more credible fellows to rise up in opposition once they sense weakness. Portraying weakness is never an option. That would never happen at all. It is far better off for GY to stay on and fight. If he wins, it is no loss to PAP. If he loses, they are prepared to write him off - perhaps a possibility. I think this is the basis for PAP in current gameplay. But to purposely lose GY, I doubt so.

GY is the most senior politician in the second echelon of leadership, even more senior than TCH, and it is TCH who got chosen. GY does lack political ambition and is more of a technocrat, and he got no political base. In fact, PAP political structure is made up of a troika of LKY, LHL and GCT. GCT is the weakest among the three, and he is up there so as not to give perception that LKY and LHL wield all the power. When more power is concentrated, the rest will gather to present a challenge. PAP power system does not allow for anyone to build and concentrate a power base at present.

The rise of previously pro-establishment types in opposition is an indication of things to come primarily, LKY is at an old age and will not be around as a matter of time. Years of strong authoritarian rule have dampened the rise of any real challenge to present ruling regime. Things at the next decade look set to change. Factions could emerge within PAP itself. I reckon this will only happen if the LKY and LHL appear weak, and this gives an impetus to the others to emerge.

I noted LKY did say that Aljunied residents will have 5 years to learn and repent - interesting strange words ... did PAP give up? I took a look at recent demarcation of Aljunied. Portions of pro-opposition precincts eg Chai Chee have been put into Marine Parade, in exchange for the relatively middle-and upper class estate of Serangoon Gardens. WP supporters usually come from the lower income classes. Will the landed Singaporeans in Serangoon Gardens take a risk to vote against PAP?

Most people think that GY just scraped thru with opposition taking around 43% of votes in 2006. To me, I thought GY did pretty well by PAP standards. Past elections in Eunos region saw PAP scraping through with 51-52% of votes only. I still think Low Thia Kiang still face a tough fight. It may result in 5% swing but he needs 8% swing. If it is the past constituency of Aljunied, he might be able. For current one, I think it may be close but I still think Low Thia Kiang may not make it.

If Low Thia Kiang wins it, it is a clear signal that PAP is losing its lustre in Singapore especially if PAP cannot win with the landed Singaporeans. It opens doors to many opposition chaps to rise up, especially with the fear factor being less now. In this scenario, I reckon LHL is in for a hard time. It is not in his interest to purposely lose GY in my view as this will also possibly open a schism within the party. Perceptions cannot be hidden within the party. I think he would be aware the loss of Aljunied will usher in more challengers ahead, possibly within and outside the party Actually, even if PAP wins Aljunied, I think the die is cast against PAP in the years ahead.

As LHL continues with his soft approach, more challengers will still come forward. If he adopts a hard approach like LKY, I don't think that is possible now and it is an incredible loss of legitimacy for him. GCT started a different game of a soft approach, and LHL got no choice but to follow. Within PAP, there are also enough dissent. This dissent was already present in 1987 Marxist conspiracy and in the past, but due to LKY shrewd political plays of ruthlessness, nobody dares to stand up. In this age, we are seeing possibly power plays emerging. Can PAP keep a strong power centre? It will be interesting.

For WKS and MBT, I think they will still be in cabinet, but they will be shifted out in 2 years time. Politics demand some level of courtesy and prudence. It is far better to cite retirement, but to do so immediately after elections, I doubt LHL want to send this strong message of "discipline". These are senior politicians, and if they are junior ones, it is no issue.

Bishan-Toa Payoh - I really don't see CST team winning at all with CST's current health. He is 10 years late, and should have mount this challenge when he is at his peak in the mid nineties.

My wager is on PAP winning Aljunied. The property values are too much at stake for residents to stake on having an opposition even if they admire LTK much. I think the demarcations will play the advantage to PAP team. Either way, I do look at the votes cast in Aljunied with much anticipation.

 

[GoldenDragon]

The ground observers on nomination day spoke of dismay and surprise written on GYs face when LTK turned up. Someone was feeding GY some very bad info if they really believed ltk was not coming out./QUOTE]

LTK arrived at Deyi before GY, LHL, WKS, NEH and company showed up. LTK's presence was expected - from intelligence as well as LTK boarding the chartered bus at Hougang at least 90 minutes before 12 noon. No way GY was expecting LTK to remain in HG.

 

[RandomNexus]

I have debated with GMS in this forum years back and hence his behavior is not unusual to me. He lacks the strategy, the eye for detail and takes on too much on his plate.

If ever there was a discontent quotient on this island, Tampines would be have the highest score, even higher than Aljunied or TPY-Bishan. As I said in an earlier post, the new citizens vote wd go to PAP. But the "old citizens" are really so discontented and angry that they wd hv voted any opposition party. GMS could have given MBT a run for his money and made him shit in his pants.

I would lay it on GMS that he lost; not that MBT won!

Watch out for more MBT's dirty tricks after he becomes Minister. He will be more sinister this time.

On our fellow forumer GMS, my take :-) GMS just entered NSP not too long ago and was made secretary general. As much as he is secretary general, he does not hold the kind of power like LTK or CST or even CSJ. NSP has its core of pioneer elder politicians and they are already running NSP prior GMS's entry. NSP governs more through consensus which is never a good thing. You need a strong leader with vision, who governs by his persona and is able to direct. As long as there are many competing leaders wanting to have their say, if the main leader cannot exert his influence, you will have a team lacking the strong direction. To be fair to GMS, it is not in his nature and his relatively newcomer position which is the possible reason why NSP take him in. Birds of a feather flock together. You want somebody to run a show but you still want to have a say. In this elections, NSP has clearly bitten more than they could chew. I can't identify with the bulk of their candidates and many of them do not stand out unlike Tan Jee Say, Vincent W, Alec Tok. Their only possible exception is Jeanette Chong. Most of its candidates clearly lack the X-factor to succeed in politics. If all they could boast is a Nicole Seah, something is not that right with the party. Though Nicole Seah is a nice distraction, frankly, she does lack substance and experience. To see all the rest of her team using her as their star prop and not standing up on their own, you will see what the problem is.

On Tampines, they have been working on that ground for many years, and to date, if they still can't crack it, I think they need to do some serious thinking.

NSP needs media exposure, and a channel to bring out the best in them. Using Nicole Seah is really a poor move as it distracts and does not present the spotlight to the others. Steve Chia used to be the star, but in this elections, he is not getting the exposure.

You need to be media-savvy to play this political game. NSP is not capturing media attention due to the lack of good sound bites and lack of strong media-savvy leaders. Look at WP, you think of LTK and Sylvia Lim. Look at SPP, there is CST. Look at SDP, you think of the naive mistakes CSJ made to make himself and his party look silly and out of touch with the moderate masses. What a catastrophe CSJ has been for the inability to use the media, but allowing PAP to make full use of his ineptitude. SDP, with its illustrious Singapore Democratic Party name, the most apt I would say compared to all of the rest, could have been a great political brand that had been started by CST, but it was all wasted. Really wasted since the early nineties. NSP still got a long way to go in terms of being able to be clever to harness the use of media. For a start, they need fellows to appear 'capable" and command attention. Nicole Seah won't do at the moment, and she is allowed to overshadow the rest. As for the elder politicians, I salute them for their dedication and hard work, but it is time to make way for the younger follks with more leadership and "credibility" to rise up. As long as they are around, the others cannot emerge. This is the problem of NSP.

 

[GoldenDragon]

If this Govt wanted to save GY, they would have done it. All it takes is GY to move as they did with LSS.

WP expected TCH to cross over and fight LTK.

 

[chewed]

On our fellow forumer GMS, my take :-) GMS just entered NSP not too long ago and was made secretary general. As much as he is secretary general, he does not hold the kind of power like LTK or CST or even CSJ. NSP has its core of pioneer elder politicians and they are already running NSP prior GMS's entry. NSP governs more through consensus which is never a good thing. You need a strong leader with vision, who governs by his persona and is able to direct. As long as there are many competing leaders wanting to have their say, if the main leader cannot exert his influence, you will have a team lacking the strong direction. To be fair to GMS, it is not in his nature and his relatively newcomer position which is the possible reason why NSP take him in. Birds of a feather flock together. You want somebody to run a show but you still want to have a say. In this elections, NSP has clearly bitten more than they could chew. I can't identify with the bulk of their candidates and many of them do not stand out unlike Tan Jee Say, Vincent W, Alec Tok. Their only possible exception is Jeanette Chong. Most of its candidates clearly lack the X-factor to succeed in politics. If all they could boast is a Nicole Seah, something is not that right with the party. Though Nicole Seah is a nice distraction, frankly, she does lack substance and experience. To see all the rest of her team using her as their star prop and not standing up on their own, you will see what the problem is.

On Tampines, they have been working on that ground for many years, and to date, if they still can't crack it, I think they need to do some serious thinking.

NSP needs media exposure, and a channel to bring out the best in them. Using Nicole Seah is really a poor move as it distracts and does not present the spotlight to the others. Steve Chia used to be the star, but in this elections, he is not getting the exposure.

You need to be media-savvy to play this political game. NSP is not capturing media attention due to the lack of good sound bites and lack of strong media-savvy leaders. Look at WP, you think of LTK and Sylvia Lim. Look at SPP, there is CST. Look at SDP, you think of the naive mistakes CSJ made to make himself and his party look silly and out of touch with the moderate masses. What a catastrophe CSJ has been for the inability to use the media, but allowing PAP to make full use of his ineptitude. SDP, with its illustrious Singapore Democratic Party name, the most apt I would say compared to all of the rest, could have been a great political brand that had been started by CST, but it was all wasted. Really wasted since the early nineties. NSP still got a long way to go in terms of being able to be clever to harness the use of media. For a start, they need fellows to appear 'capable" and command attention. Nicole Seah won't do at the moment, and she is allowed to overshadow the rest. As for the elder politicians, I salute them for their dedication and hard work, but it is time to make way for the younger follks with more leadership and "credibility" to rise up. As long as they are around, the others cannot emerge. This is the problem of NSP.

While i'm disappointed that NSP & GMS have been rather quiet lately, but seriously, how many of you can deal with losing a brother who is helping your cause & campainging at the same time..??

 

[maozedong]

if the overall % falls below 60%, one sure thing that they will do immediately after the election is to let in more immigrants and make it easier for them to become citizens. eventually they may even allow dual citizenship -- because this will immediately increase the no. of immigrants converting to citizens.

LKY is the Greatest!
LHL is the Best!
Lee Hongyi will be the Ultimate!

 

[streetsmart73]

Yes, and fuck care which Minister lose.
They have made their millions and will be will taken care of even if they lose.
So what are these poor peasants worrying for a million dollars Minister.

hi there


1.bro, five thumbs up man!
2. top pay equates top performance.
3. sheep, dog, cow, horse, wood fight internally.
4. who cares man!

 

[Windsor]

Though Nicole Seah is a nice distraction, frankly, she does lack substance and experience. To see all the rest of her team using her as their star prop and not standing up on their own, you will see what the problem is.

NSP needs media exposure, and a channel to bring out the best in them. Using Nicole Seah is really a poor move as it distracts and does not present the spotlight to the others.

Nicole Seah won't do at the moment, and she is allowed to overshadow the rest. As for the elder politicians, I salute them for their dedication and hard work, but it is time to make way for the younger follks with more leadership and "credibility" to rise up. As long as they are around, the others cannot emerge. This is the problem of NSP.

Although what you said makes sense, your views and assessment of the Nicole Seah phenomenon is simplistic and quite inaccurate about NSP as a whole. In defense of GMS and NSP, they did not put Nicole on the forefront as you impute.

There was TPL, remember her? When she was introduced to the public, there was an outcry and the internet was abuzz with a great number of negative comments. Nicole arrived on the scene and she was embrace by these same people and it went from there to what is happening now. I wish not to go into the details but I am pretty sure everyone knows what I am saying. NSP did not "allow her to overshadow the rest" as you claimed, neither was she "used" by NSP. She captured the attention of the public's imagination and with the MSMs and FB and mostly positive comments, it was only natural the focus was always on her. One cannot deny that she was a different animal compared to the insipid TPL.

All said, I and many here will disagree that she is without substance and shallow. No doubt she may be young and this causes minus points as our mindsets holds the view that age and experience is what is needed from a politician. Notwithstanding that, you never even mention TPL and TPL most probably will be our future MP. I will not delve much into this but I am sure that scares the bejesus out of most of us. It is unfortunate that she is very young, but that is the only factor why she is not so credible in the eyes of many. Take her youth away, and she will definitely be a force to be reckon with. I reiterate, she is not a person lacking "substance", she has plenty of that.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

glad to hear that all is well at yr end bro!

fm what i hv heard...OYK sounds like a gd chap for 4G core grp cabinet...bright, humble n heart in the rt place...another one that has impressed me is BG Chan...no intel on him but fm what i hv read n heard, he too looks like a gd chap for 4G core grp cabinet...

as for Zainul...looks like WP may hv put the Speaker carrot to bed by pulling out Art 40 of the constitution!!...

must say did not get the impression that TCH is playing such an impt role in this GE...as for WKS really cant stand the sight of this chap...truly hope what u say comes true...in fact LHL may hv scored more brownie pts if he axed WKS together wif LBH at one fell swoop just before nomination day...

Yep all well I hv been out of singapore for almost 2 yrs, just making occasional trips. I am back as of Jan 2011. That explains my absence here

U r right. GY's loss is significant because GCT would have lost a key ally. I am not so sure abt OYK's credentials. Would have to watch him

This time, the man who's playing the conductor in hiding is TCY, not WKS. My guess is that WKS will not find a place in the cabinet.

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

interesting analysis bro...

to me i think THE big swing factor shall now be the 2nd n last TV political broadcasts tomorrow 6th may...it may well be make or break time for LHL...if he can pull off the performance of his life, perhaps afew tears like daddy in 65' may not go amiss!!, then i think pap shall sneak through even wif aljunied n pp...probably only leaving hougang as the last bastion for oppo...on the other hand if LHL does not pass muster n comes off flat...n the oppos all turn up consistent like in their 1st broadcasts then i think yr forecasts may not be that far off...

btw curious to know what all u chaps think of ho ching's role in this GE...seem to c her all over the place...

Dear Seren and Scroo

Here's my prediction and how it differs from PAP central because I believe they have been getting the GIGO syndrome of on the ground reporting :_)). A national swing from 66 to 58% +-1 made worse locally by the unpopularity and popularity of individual ministers and the strength of the team against them

Tier One

Aljunied at 55% +- 2

Tier One. five

These are the canaries in the mine. I expect Mounbatten and Joo Chiat to fall at 55% +-2 . If its on the high side then WKS is in for a very bad nite as these results will come in before Aljunied. PP LC to hold +-0.5 Hougang 58 +- 2

Tier two

TP BTP, EC MK all go from safe seats to 50 50 fights +- 0.5 I expect it to be that close, however how close tier two is will depend on the momentum built in Tier One and One.5 If the numbers are low enough then tier two is safe if the numbers are bad then PAP is in for a worst than worst case nite

The need for LHL and TCH if scroo and seren is right to try to save george or reduce his losing margin is precisely the manner in which the dominos fall and the need to break opposition momemtum. Even if George is gone they have to reduce his losing margin to prevent tier two from being swamped



Locke













QUOTE=serenditpity;719078]Marine Parade is still PAP without a doubt

[/QUOTE]

 

[Porfirio Rubirosa]

what abt Tony n Hazel bro?

In this elections, NSP has clearly bitten more than they could chew. I can't identify with the bulk of their candidates and many of them do not stand out unlike Tan Jee Say, Vincent W, Alec Tok. Their only possible exception is Jeanette Chong. Most of its candidates clearly lack the X-factor to succeed in politics. If all they could boast is a Nicole Seah, something is not that right with the party. Though Nicole Seah is a nice distraction, frankly, she does lack substance and experience. To see all the rest of her team using her as their star prop and not standing up on their own, you will see what the problem is.

.