We will have good news if MP falls because it means other GRCs would fall.
Although MP was the number 5 opposition GRC in 2011, I don't think that position can be sustained in 2016 as the momentum was not sustained by either NSP or NS. It is also natural for star factor (NS) to decline. On top of that, TPL is winning over a few detractors.
Still, this GRC should at least garner above-average results.