Today 12:26 PM#1blackjck21trader
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[h=2]This round of QE will not increase Singapore landed property prices:[/h]
"Better to illuminate than merely to shine, to deliver to
others contemplated truths than merely to contemplate." — St. Thomas Aquinas
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<dl class="userinfo_extra"><dt>Join Date</dt> <dd>Jun 2011</dd><dt>Location</dt> <dd>http://www.sglion.com</dd><dt>Posts</dt> <dd>1,354</dd></dl>
[h=2]This round of QE will not increase Singapore landed property prices:[/h]
I have been investing in property market for over 20 years. I own my first property at age 23 and my first bungalow when i was 37 years old. I have realised it is a very dangerous thinking to believe that property prices will go up forever.But is that the whole story ? That property prices will never drop ?
This is proof that I have been in the property market since the 1990s:
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s...rader/real.jpg
The property index graph that many agents are showing you: the graph that keeps increasing does not take into account one important factor: REAL terms consideration.
The reason why the property index is a graph that is ever increasing is because of continual inflation in the global system after the first QE by the USA in 1965. You draw any asset class graph (eg. gold ) without considering inflation level for that matter and you will get an ever increasing price index.
The property market has both ups and down cycles. In partcular. the index graph after factoring all these will show you that property prices can decrease up to 40% !!!
In case you still do not understand completely what i m saying here's a simplified example:
One of the key points to note here is affordability: did the middle real income increased in line with property prices after considering the overall economic situation in the system ?
Whenever i see this property index rises above the affordibility index, I can tell a property downturn is coming.i shall reveal in due time my own version of this graph, and you will see what i mean. and i shall reveal my method used to calculate these indices too.
Remember , no such thing as property prices increasing forever; it appears to be so because inflation level and other factors are not taken into consideration.
It is just a pure price index, not an index in REAL terms.
In my humble opinion, property prices could be falling very soon. It will be led by low sales volume first.
If you really have to get a property now for own occupation,then it is safer to go for new HDB or new Executive Condo.Since private market is only moderately controlled, the fall could be harder. And because developers building private projects have 5 years to clear stock, 2015 could be the bottom if we start counting from 2010.
Now, look at the landed prices objectively now. Many terraces in strange locations of approx 1000 sqft but rebuilt up to the max plot ratio of around 2000 over sqft .These are now asking for S$3M or more. Would buyers with budget of S$3M want to buy these, since buyers with that kind of budget are sophiscated and discerning investors? If they have S$3Million budget, they would rather build their own landed with their own design and taste on lower ratio.
"As long as you have not realised your property profits or cannot realise your property profits; THEY ARE NOT PROFITS. They are merely an illusion in your mind."
- Wise Words by BJ21T
I can also say my Nassim bungalow is worth S$100Million. But as long as there are no takers, it remains an unrealised dream. I only needs one of my neighbors to sell his at S$5 Million to sabo me.
This is what the angmo subprime called :" The Wealth Effect".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PNsw3G2lYA
The underlying fear I have is this : Do we wish to have landed all owned by "New" Singaporeans instead of locally born Singaporeans eventually in the future ?
I have no issues if they go buy up all the condos or 99 years cluster TOWN houses. BUT LANDED is a Special class of property reserved for TRUE SINGAPOREANS ONLY. Singaporeans who are willing to fight for the country. Until the new ones can prove themselves, I would reserve my landed for myself and brothers here thank you.
If landed is not an important aspect of POLITICS, why do Australia, Malaysia, India, and even some states in USA restrict buying of lands ?
One suggestion I have is to allow only second generation of "New" Singaporeans to buy landed. Or if the second generation is NOT born here, they have to wait for their locally BORN grandchildren to buy it for them. KEY WORD here is locally born of this land Or better still: TO HAVE SERVED NATIONAL SERVICE IN SAF .
The thing I AM NERVOUS ABOUT IS WHEN high property prices is NOT substainable. Substainable in the perspective of LOCALLY BORN SINGAPOREAN and with regards to their financial fairness.
It must be attainable to the local Singaporean WHOM had worked hard for their SGD and be able to buy a proper landed at the level of their next upgrade in the social life/class ladder.
IF HOWEVER, the landed prices are artifically inflated due to some person(s) who HAS no concept of the value of SGD ( IMAGINE USING PURE CASH TO BUY A PROPERTY ! ), then the landed price will reach a stage BEYOND the locally born Singaporean who are climbing this social ladder.SINCE there exist this disparity gap in Wealth level and perception of value of money between the PRC and local Singaporean.
IF local Singaporean cannot afford landed, then logically these landed will eventually ended up in the hands of "NEW" Singaporean if you know what I mean. The landed will hence be passed around among this group of people ONLY.Hence creating an unfairness in the economic system.
I hope our PAP look into new companies ( Hanyu Pinyin sounding Names ) set up with the sole intention to acquire huge plot of private landed here. Better find out who are the shareholders composition.This is very easily done by sending staff to look and record all the sign boards placed outside the reconstructing sites. Thank You.
Tread with caution.
Good luck.
神龍股俠
nil sine labore!
This is proof that I have been in the property market since the 1990s:
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s...rader/real.jpg
The property index graph that many agents are showing you: the graph that keeps increasing does not take into account one important factor: REAL terms consideration.
The reason why the property index is a graph that is ever increasing is because of continual inflation in the global system after the first QE by the USA in 1965. You draw any asset class graph (eg. gold ) without considering inflation level for that matter and you will get an ever increasing price index.
The property market has both ups and down cycles. In partcular. the index graph after factoring all these will show you that property prices can decrease up to 40% !!!
In case you still do not understand completely what i m saying here's a simplified example:
One of the key points to note here is affordability: did the middle real income increased in line with property prices after considering the overall economic situation in the system ?
For example:
Case 1:1969, it costs 50cents to buy a bowl of noddle and middle income level was $1000 and property price is $20000.
Case 2:1971, it costs 80cents to buy a bowl of noddle and middle income level was $1000, and if property price is still at $20000, then property prices actually dropped in real terms in case 2.
Case 1:1969, it costs 50cents to buy a bowl of noddle and middle income level was $1000 and property price is $20000.
Case 2:1971, it costs 80cents to buy a bowl of noddle and middle income level was $1000, and if property price is still at $20000, then property prices actually dropped in real terms in case 2.
Remember , no such thing as property prices increasing forever; it appears to be so because inflation level and other factors are not taken into consideration.
It is just a pure price index, not an index in REAL terms.
In my humble opinion, property prices could be falling very soon. It will be led by low sales volume first.
If you really have to get a property now for own occupation,then it is safer to go for new HDB or new Executive Condo.Since private market is only moderately controlled, the fall could be harder. And because developers building private projects have 5 years to clear stock, 2015 could be the bottom if we start counting from 2010.
Now, look at the landed prices objectively now. Many terraces in strange locations of approx 1000 sqft but rebuilt up to the max plot ratio of around 2000 over sqft .These are now asking for S$3M or more. Would buyers with budget of S$3M want to buy these, since buyers with that kind of budget are sophiscated and discerning investors? If they have S$3Million budget, they would rather build their own landed with their own design and taste on lower ratio.
"As long as you have not realised your property profits or cannot realise your property profits; THEY ARE NOT PROFITS. They are merely an illusion in your mind."
- Wise Words by BJ21T
I can also say my Nassim bungalow is worth S$100Million. But as long as there are no takers, it remains an unrealised dream. I only needs one of my neighbors to sell his at S$5 Million to sabo me.
This is what the angmo subprime called :" The Wealth Effect".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PNsw3G2lYA
The underlying fear I have is this : Do we wish to have landed all owned by "New" Singaporeans instead of locally born Singaporeans eventually in the future ?
I have no issues if they go buy up all the condos or 99 years cluster TOWN houses. BUT LANDED is a Special class of property reserved for TRUE SINGAPOREANS ONLY. Singaporeans who are willing to fight for the country. Until the new ones can prove themselves, I would reserve my landed for myself and brothers here thank you.
If landed is not an important aspect of POLITICS, why do Australia, Malaysia, India, and even some states in USA restrict buying of lands ?
One suggestion I have is to allow only second generation of "New" Singaporeans to buy landed. Or if the second generation is NOT born here, they have to wait for their locally BORN grandchildren to buy it for them. KEY WORD here is locally born of this land Or better still: TO HAVE SERVED NATIONAL SERVICE IN SAF .
The thing I AM NERVOUS ABOUT IS WHEN high property prices is NOT substainable. Substainable in the perspective of LOCALLY BORN SINGAPOREAN and with regards to their financial fairness.
It must be attainable to the local Singaporean WHOM had worked hard for their SGD and be able to buy a proper landed at the level of their next upgrade in the social life/class ladder.
IF HOWEVER, the landed prices are artifically inflated due to some person(s) who HAS no concept of the value of SGD ( IMAGINE USING PURE CASH TO BUY A PROPERTY ! ), then the landed price will reach a stage BEYOND the locally born Singaporean who are climbing this social ladder.SINCE there exist this disparity gap in Wealth level and perception of value of money between the PRC and local Singaporean.
IF local Singaporean cannot afford landed, then logically these landed will eventually ended up in the hands of "NEW" Singaporean if you know what I mean. The landed will hence be passed around among this group of people ONLY.Hence creating an unfairness in the economic system.
I hope our PAP look into new companies ( Hanyu Pinyin sounding Names ) set up with the sole intention to acquire huge plot of private landed here. Better find out who are the shareholders composition.This is very easily done by sending staff to look and record all the sign boards placed outside the reconstructing sites. Thank You.
Tread with caution.
Good luck.
神龍股俠
nil sine labore!
"Better to illuminate than merely to shine, to deliver to
others contemplated truths than merely to contemplate." — St. Thomas Aquinas
