Summary of Margin Prediction thus far:
WP to win. Old Jalan Besar Stadium Ah Huat Betting Rules Apply.
NoNewGood: 63%
steffychun: 60%
Rusty: 47%
Myfoot123: 40%
Chuckyworld : 39%
Zombie 37.6%
GD: 36%
Zihau: 33.68%
Kingrant: 33%
Sengkang:33%
Twitseng:31%
Yellowsrse: 31%
Cunnilaubu: 33.1%
po2wq:32.2%
Fook Seng : 30%
scroobal: 30%
Zeddy: 29%
TFBH: 27%
Rotiprata: 26%
Deepblue0911: 24%
Perspective:24%
Charlie99: 24%
CakeLEngKia: 22%
Lib 21%
GMS: 20.6%
3M: 20%
Djent: 17%
Char_Azn: 16%
Now that we have seen the rallies, it is timely for everyone to update their predictions.
WP has been trying its very best to put on a brave face and bang the war drum to rouse the people of Hougang. The lack of reaction at the recent rallies show that this has not been particularly sucessful.
The PAP on the other hand have not had much sucess either. Having singled out Hougang for so long, it is hard to win over residents who have no reason to like or trust the PAP.
The incidence of spolit votes is therefore likely to go up significantly for this BE. This works in the PAP's favour since the spolit votes are likely to come from voters who previously voted WP and who are unhappy with the way things worked out.
In all electons, it is statistically impossible to make a point estimate. That is as good a plucking a figure out of sky. My estimate is that with the rise in incidence of spolit votes, we are likely to see the following result
WP 55% to 60%
PAP 40% to 45%
