Groundswell of disquiet knocks out PAP in Punggol East,
boosting WP and marginalizing smaller opposition parties
by Derek da Cunha
Posted as a FB NOTE Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 11:13pm
A by-election loss was always on the cards for the PAP in Punggol East, despite it being a four-cornered race which, by intuition, would favour the incumbent. The fact is that by-elections anywhere around the world are always highly disadvantageous to the party in Government. This is the reason why prior to 2012 the PAP Government has not held by-elections since the one in Marine Parade GRC in 1992. However, what is surprising about the Punggol East result is the scale of the PAP’s loss. The swing towards the Workers’ Party was a substantial 13.51%. The only conclusion is that at ground level there is seething anger at the Government. A raft of issues are behind that anger, but all evidence points to it centring on the key issue of the continued heavy influx of foreign nationals into Singapore which is causing all manner of problems for Singaporeans even if businesses benefit from that influx.
The PAP candidate, Dr Koh Poh Koon did not help his cause by appearing to be a reluctant contestant. He was rich in professional credentials as a physician, but poor in political instincts. During the campaign Dr Koh made the astonishing claim that “everybody has a car”. To make such a remark at any time is callous and insensitive. To make it when Certificates of Entitlement (COE) for cars are close to record highs is simply stupid and demonstrates the extent to which Dr Koh is out of touch with the daily lives of ordinary folk. Funnily enough, Dr Koh’s remark was similar to one made by his predecessor, Mr Michael Palmer, who in his first year as an MP affected surprise that there are poor people in Singapore. This cannot be pure coincidence, but points to a major problem within the PAP – its narrow ultra-elitism which is also reflected in the way it chooses its election candidates.
In contrast to a political neophyte in Dr Koh, the WP fielded a seasoned grassroots activist in Ms Lee Li Lian, who returned to the ward she contested in GE2011 and was rewarded handsomely by the voters. Contrary to naysayers both online and offline, the WP’s choice of Ms Lee was not a consequence of the party’s lack of talent. Indeed, the WP has talent by the spade full and it showcased four new faces during its by-election rallies. The new faces, including two lawyers and one academic, are just a small number of many aspirants that have been knocking on the WP’s door since GE2011, including a few high profile defections from other opposition parties. It is likely that others who have been hesitating, thinking that the WP’s breakthrough in GE2011 was simply a flash-in-the-pan, will now be making a beeline to the party’s HQ, as the WP has demonstrated that it is a winning election machine.
In keeping with the way it operates, the WP holds its cards very close to its chest; it sees no need to disclose the extent of its material and manpower resources just to satisfy the curiosity of those who engage in online chatter. Ms Lee’s common touch, the significant premium on the WP’s brand, the party’s superior ground game which involved a legion of passionate members and volunteers, the public perception that the party is a well-organized outfit that is moderate in nature and not given to political grandstanding, plus the concept of geographical adjacency – where opposition sentiment spilled over from the WP’s stronghold of Aljunied into Punggol East – all brought home the hefty 54.52% vote for the WP and, in the process, obliterated the two other contestants from the RP and the SDA.
To that extent, the consequence of the Punggol East result will, ironically, be likely felt far more by the other opposition parties than by the Government which, because of its massive parliamentary majority, is likely to remain unfazed. Those other opposition parties will clearly be impacted negatively; it is not unreasonable to suggest that some personalities in those parties had quietly hoped that the WP would be denied victory. Understandably, this is not how some of the other opposition parties, and bloggers aligned to them, will write-up the Punggol East result. Publicly, they will likely say that it was simply a very bad result for the governing PAP, instead of the reality – that it was a superb result for the WP. They want to give the impression that their parties will be as equally competitive as the WP against the PAP at the next general election. In a word, they are simply dreaming.
My analysis in the book Breakthrough: Roadmap for Singapore’s Political Future, where the WP is on the ascendant and the other political parties are increasingly marginalized, remains very much intact.
Dr Derek da Cunha is author of the books: Breakthrough: Roadmap for Singapore’s Political Future (2012), which is an analysis of the 2011 Singapore general election; and, The Price of Victory: The 1997 Singapore General Election and Beyond (1997).
Copyright © Derek da Cunha
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boosting WP and marginalizing smaller opposition parties
by Derek da Cunha
Posted as a FB NOTE Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 11:13pm
A by-election loss was always on the cards for the PAP in Punggol East, despite it being a four-cornered race which, by intuition, would favour the incumbent. The fact is that by-elections anywhere around the world are always highly disadvantageous to the party in Government. This is the reason why prior to 2012 the PAP Government has not held by-elections since the one in Marine Parade GRC in 1992. However, what is surprising about the Punggol East result is the scale of the PAP’s loss. The swing towards the Workers’ Party was a substantial 13.51%. The only conclusion is that at ground level there is seething anger at the Government. A raft of issues are behind that anger, but all evidence points to it centring on the key issue of the continued heavy influx of foreign nationals into Singapore which is causing all manner of problems for Singaporeans even if businesses benefit from that influx.
The PAP candidate, Dr Koh Poh Koon did not help his cause by appearing to be a reluctant contestant. He was rich in professional credentials as a physician, but poor in political instincts. During the campaign Dr Koh made the astonishing claim that “everybody has a car”. To make such a remark at any time is callous and insensitive. To make it when Certificates of Entitlement (COE) for cars are close to record highs is simply stupid and demonstrates the extent to which Dr Koh is out of touch with the daily lives of ordinary folk. Funnily enough, Dr Koh’s remark was similar to one made by his predecessor, Mr Michael Palmer, who in his first year as an MP affected surprise that there are poor people in Singapore. This cannot be pure coincidence, but points to a major problem within the PAP – its narrow ultra-elitism which is also reflected in the way it chooses its election candidates.
In contrast to a political neophyte in Dr Koh, the WP fielded a seasoned grassroots activist in Ms Lee Li Lian, who returned to the ward she contested in GE2011 and was rewarded handsomely by the voters. Contrary to naysayers both online and offline, the WP’s choice of Ms Lee was not a consequence of the party’s lack of talent. Indeed, the WP has talent by the spade full and it showcased four new faces during its by-election rallies. The new faces, including two lawyers and one academic, are just a small number of many aspirants that have been knocking on the WP’s door since GE2011, including a few high profile defections from other opposition parties. It is likely that others who have been hesitating, thinking that the WP’s breakthrough in GE2011 was simply a flash-in-the-pan, will now be making a beeline to the party’s HQ, as the WP has demonstrated that it is a winning election machine.
In keeping with the way it operates, the WP holds its cards very close to its chest; it sees no need to disclose the extent of its material and manpower resources just to satisfy the curiosity of those who engage in online chatter. Ms Lee’s common touch, the significant premium on the WP’s brand, the party’s superior ground game which involved a legion of passionate members and volunteers, the public perception that the party is a well-organized outfit that is moderate in nature and not given to political grandstanding, plus the concept of geographical adjacency – where opposition sentiment spilled over from the WP’s stronghold of Aljunied into Punggol East – all brought home the hefty 54.52% vote for the WP and, in the process, obliterated the two other contestants from the RP and the SDA.
To that extent, the consequence of the Punggol East result will, ironically, be likely felt far more by the other opposition parties than by the Government which, because of its massive parliamentary majority, is likely to remain unfazed. Those other opposition parties will clearly be impacted negatively; it is not unreasonable to suggest that some personalities in those parties had quietly hoped that the WP would be denied victory. Understandably, this is not how some of the other opposition parties, and bloggers aligned to them, will write-up the Punggol East result. Publicly, they will likely say that it was simply a very bad result for the governing PAP, instead of the reality – that it was a superb result for the WP. They want to give the impression that their parties will be as equally competitive as the WP against the PAP at the next general election. In a word, they are simply dreaming.
My analysis in the book Breakthrough: Roadmap for Singapore’s Political Future, where the WP is on the ascendant and the other political parties are increasingly marginalized, remains very much intact.
Dr Derek da Cunha is author of the books: Breakthrough: Roadmap for Singapore’s Political Future (2012), which is an analysis of the 2011 Singapore general election; and, The Price of Victory: The 1997 Singapore General Election and Beyond (1997).
Copyright © Derek da Cunha
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