Goldman warns US recession risk now higher and more front-loaded
JUN 21, 2022 01:56 PM
GOLDMAN Sachs Group economists warned the risk of a US recession has grown more likely, and have downgraded their gross domestic product growth forecasts for the economy.
The Goldman economists now see a 30 per cent probability of entering a recession over the next year, compared to 15 per cent previously, and a 25 per cent conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if one is avoided in the first, they wrote in a Monday (Jun 20) research note. That implies a 48 per cent cumulative probability in the next 2 years compared to a 35 per cent estimate previously.
