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Economic trouble brewing in India...asia

winnipegjets

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
First India, then Indonesia... who is next?

As the sell-off in emerging markets intensified this week, India and Indonesia have been left the most severely bruised and battered. Now analysts are concerned of a domino effect that could spread to other emerging markets.

(Read More: Brutality scorecard: Which emerging stocks have it the worst?)

Richard Yetsenga, head of global markets research at Australia's ANZ bank, told CNBC that India's troubles represent a "great microcosm" for what is happening in emerging markets right now.

"India is a microcosm in the sense that nothing domestic occurred to trigger this latest move," he said. "India's current account deficit and budget deficit have been very wide for at least two years. It's only when U.S. bond yields really started going up and the free money tap turned off that it started to be manifested in the currency."

(Read more: What's really holding back growth in India)

Yetsenga said he expects India's fallout to be repeated across other emerging market economies, with those with high levels of external leverage being hit first, but then possibly spreading to other markets with high degrees of internal leverage.

"The cost of capital has gone up and that's causing issues everywhere. In that sense all of Asia is exposed to a higher global cost of capital," he noted.

"Places like Malaysia and Thailand have had particularly strong credit growth in the last couple of years, so they look fine from an external perspective but they have a high degree of internal leverage," Yetsenga said.

On Tuesday, Credit Suisse also identified the two countries as particularly vulnerable.

Robert Prior-Wandesforde, director of Asian economics research at the bank, said both Malaysia's ringgit and Thailand's baht could come under further pressure, and that Malaysia's situation was more worrisome.

"These pressures will remain highest on Malaysia as it experiences a more significant deterioration in its current account position while foreign ownership of its bonds and bills are far greater," he said.

The ringgit has fallen nearly 8 percent this year to a three-year low, with selling accelerating last week.

(Read more: Hong Kong sees no shelter from housing storm)

"Malaysia's seen a dramatic deterioration of its current account surplus and...there's also suspicion that the underlying efficiency of the economy has deteriorated and that the government hasn't doesn't enough structural reform to turn around the trend in declining productivity growth," Frederic Neumann, MD & co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC told CNBC.

The other emerging markets Neumann is concerned about are Brazil and Turkey. In addition, analysts warned that markets, which have experience big run-ups in property prices, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, are also at risk from higher interest rates.

However, Neumann added that he did not think it was a good idea to group all emerging markets together as one, and there were some economies that he believed would prove resilient.

(Read more: Unlocking the playing field for emerging markets)

"I'm not sure this (concerns of an India-style crisis) applies to all emerging markets, if you look in Asia, the Philippines appears to be in much better shape, so is South Korea, and I think despite the recent sell-off, Thailand is as well," he said.

—By CNBC's Katie Holliday: Follow her on Twitter

@hollidaykatie
 

GOD IS MY DOG

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Why would india stay in 1 piece? For god's sake do u know many regions of india are worse off cos of the horrible central govt. You don't even give any explaination.



India stay in 1 piece becoz of caste system............also becoz it has now on the side of US.......already an ally of the Zionists liao.....

the Zionists will be the reason why China and even Russia will be broken up in 2nd Great Depression.............

Soviet Union was broken up just the same...........by internal traitors...........end up all the oil/gas in Russia owned by Jews.....

in China, no lack of corrupted traitors..........
 

TopSage

Alfrescian
Loyal
thanks...this article.quite accurately characterise what is going on...my strategy now is to
ccumulate short positions in these markets as they come down. my advice is to wind down any long exposure in these markets
First India, then Indonesia... who is next
?


As the sell-off in emerging markets intensified this week, India and Indonesia have been left the most severely bruised and battered. Now analysts are concerned of a domino effect that could spread to other emerging markets.

(Read More: Brutality scorecard: Which emerging stocks have it the worst?)

Richard Yetsenga, head of global markets research at Australia's ANZ bank, told CNBC that India's troubles represent a "great microcosm" for what is happening in emerging markets right now.

"India is a microcosm in the sense that nothing domestic occurred to trigger this latest move," he said. "India's current account deficit and budget deficit have been very wide for at least two years. It's only when U.S. bond yields really started going up and the free money tap turned off that it started to be manifested in the currency."

(Read more: What's really holding back growth in India)

Yetsenga said he expects India's fallout to be repeated across other emerging market economies, with those with high levels of external leverage being hit first, but then possibly spreading to other markets with high degrees of internal leverage.

"The cost of capital has gone up and that's causing issues everywhere. In that sense all of Asia is exposed to a higher global cost of capital," he noted.

"Places like Malaysia and Thailand have had particularly strong credit growth in the last couple of years, so they look fine from an external perspective but they have a high degree of internal leverage," Yetsenga said.

On Tuesday, Credit Suisse also identified the two countries as particularly vulnerable.

Robert Prior-Wandesforde, director of Asian economics research at the bank, said both Malaysia's ringgit and Thailand's baht could come under further pressure, and that Malaysia's situation was more worrisome.

"These pressures will remain highest on Malaysia as it experiences a more significant deterioration in its current account position while foreign ownership of its bonds and bills are far greater," he said.

The ringgit has fallen nearly 8 percent this year to a three-year low, with selling accelerating last week.

(Read more: Hong Kong sees no shelter from housing storm)

"Malaysia's seen a dramatic deterioration of its current account surplus and...there's also suspicion that the underlying efficiency of the economy has deteriorated and that the government hasn't doesn't enough structural reform to turn around the trend in declining productivity growth," Frederic Neumann, MD & co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC told CNBC.

The other emerging markets Neumann is concerned about are Brazil and Turkey. In addition, analysts warned that markets, which have experience big run-ups in property prices, such as Singapore and Hong Kong, are also at risk from higher interest rates.

However, Neumann added that he did not think it was a good idea to group all emerging markets together as one, and there were some economies that he believed would prove resilient.

(Read more: Unlocking the playing field for emerging markets)

"I'm not sure this (concerns of an India-style crisis) applies to all emerging markets, if you look in Asia, the Philippines appears to be in much better shape, so is South Korea, and I think despite the recent sell-off, Thailand is as well," he said.

—By CNBC's Katie Holliday: Follow her on Twitter

@hollidaykatie
 

Jah_rastafar_I

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I thought India is going to be the 2nd superpower in 2020? What happen?

Ppl in here are still cursing how fucked up china is. Like after the crisis india goes thru it will remain but china will split up.

Anyway trust me they will find some BS explaination for you in which you have to accept to make sure shitland will be a superpower in 2020. I mean the india of today doesn't even have basic sanitation for a large segment of the population but somehow they can become a superpower.
 

3_M

Alfrescian
Loyal
It easy for China to split India into pieces. Just induce a S.Asia arm race by supplying weapons to India's neighbors cheaply. To counter it, India would have no choice but to buy expensive equipments from US, Russia and Israel. This put huge stress on their national coffers especially at this time of falling Rupee and widening budget deficits. How long can India go on without bankrupting herself?
 

Rogue Trader

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
China's political stability under one party rule has always been it's strong selling point as a place for business. In contrast, India has long been in danger of breaking up with their fragmented cultural, racial and administrative differences.

The recent debacle in the state Hyderabad just proves the point. After wooing Mncs to set up offices there, the state government decides to break up. Tech Mncs, who had spent millions moving bases of operations, were all left going "WTF? You kidding me?"
 

GOD IS MY DOG

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
China's political stability under one party rule has always been it's strong selling point as a place for business. In contrast, India has long been in danger of breaking up with their fragmented cultural, racial and administrative differences.

The recent debacle in the state Hyderabad just proves the point. After wooing Mncs to set up offices there, the state government decides to break up. Tech Mncs, who had spent millions moving bases of operations, were all left going "WTF? You kidding me?"



the people put up with the communists as long as things are tolerable................

the commies been telling all the people to buy gold......................if gold prices were to drop 50%..................you see what happen..............there'll be mass riots, etc etc..............

now imagine if great depression comes....................tens of millions of people out of jobs................

corrupted politicians and generals will be trying to seize power and carve out their own fiefdoms...............
 

scbccb

Alfrescian
Loyal
HUAT AH!

r-rup1.jpg


molest4pic.jpg
 

winnipegjets

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
the people put up with the communists as long as things are tolerable................
the commies been telling all the people to buy gold......................if gold prices were to drop 50%..................you see what happen..............there'll be mass riots, etc etc..............
now imagine if great depression comes....................tens of millions of people out of jobs................
corrupted politicians and generals will be trying to seize power and carve out their own fiefdoms...............

China is no longer a communist country ...it is like sinkapore in so many ways ...economically, China is like the wild west of free enterprise while politically it is authoritarian.
 

blackmondy

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I thought India is going to be the 2nd superpower in 2020? What happen?

Being the 2nd superpower have to KIV for a few more decades.

But being the super-smelly power, India's definitely still on track as ranking number 1.
 

Jah_rastafar_I

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
India stay in 1 piece becoz of caste system............also becoz it has now on the side of US.......already an ally of the Zionists liao.....

the Zionists will be the reason why China and even Russia will be broken up in 2nd Great Depression.............

Soviet Union was broken up just the same...........by internal traitors...........end up all the oil/gas in Russia owned by Jews.....

in China, no lack of corrupted traitors..........

Your reasoning doesn't make sense at all. China has been united for over 5k years not shitland.
 

TopSage

Alfrescian
Loyal
[video=youtube;Iaz0m7Zyuq0]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iaz0m7Zyuq0[/video]


India really going downhill...

The video only touch the surface, below this there are deep problems....when the whole thing blow up, it will be rapid ...my suggestion is to take up short positionse in rupee and sensex
 

TopSage

Alfrescian
Loyal
Here is a video that explains the impending Indian crisis in greater detail. If you can spend some time to follow it, you will understand how serious and inevitable the Indian crisis will be.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/iaIHh8xu18w" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

Jah_rastafar_I

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Here is a video that explains the impending Indian crisis in greater detail. If you can spend some time to follow it, you will understand how serious and inevitable the Indian crisis will be.

<iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/iaIHh8xu18w" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" width="560"></iframe>

I hope shitland crumbles then pls close your fucking border gates! Let the skins rot in there. I doubt faggot pinky loong would listen though.
 

The_Hypocrite

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Just my 2 cents. Shitland don't do well is not a problem. For the world as to be honest they r not an economic superpower n their consumption is a bit small compared to its potential. I more worry about SEA n ah tiong land. Ah tiong land slowdown n indon get hit. But it also means the chance to diversify to other places. Back to USA etc. Tiong land is actually sea competitor for manufactured produce. Since tiongland slow down. Export to other places n shift to domestic consumption. Easier said than done.but can be done. Don't think will happen though.
 

The_Hypocrite

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I find it really funny, when the USA introduced printing money, the whole world KPKB as the value of the USD dropped but these countries did nothing to prevent the hot money flowing into the economy. Than China etc came out and say will stop support in financing the US deficit.

Now when the Fed wants to reduce the money printing, there is worry that these emerging countries cannot handle the credit withdrawal,,now what does the world expect the USA to do? print they kpkb, stop printing they kpkb again...


http://news.yahoo.com/central-bankers-debate-risks-withdrawing-global-liquidity-214821905.html


Central bankers debate risks from withdrawing global liquidity

By Pedro da Costa and Alister Bull

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - Global financial stability is at risk as central banks draw back from ultra-easy policies that have flooded the world with cash, because emerging markets lack defenses to prevent potentially huge capital outflows, top officials were warned on Saturday.

Central bankers from around the world, devoting the second day at their annual Jackson Hole policy retreat to the threats posed by global liquidity, heard two academic papers on the challenges, sparking a debate on actions and on coordination.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the audience, which included top officials from advanced as well as emerging economies, that the bold measures he had championed to spur his nation's moribund economy were bearing fruit.

"The bank's (policy) has already started to exert its intended effects," Kuroda said. The Bank of Japan has embarked on an aggressive bond-buying campaign to lift inflation in his country to 2 percent.

Easy money policies used to depress interest rates in Japan, Europe and the United States had sparked a flood of capital into emerging markets as investors sought higher returns.

Now, however, the U.S. Federal Reserve has said it plans to reduce its bond-buying stimulus by year end, with an eye toward drawing it to a close by mid-2014.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart made clear that tapering could begin next month, provided the economic news between now and then was not dramatically bad.

"I can get comfortable with September, providing we don't get any really worrisome signals out of the economy between now and the 18th of September," he told Reuters in an interview, referring to the Fed's next meeting, which is on September 17-18.

Concerns over Fed tapering has sparked an exodus of cash from emerging markets, including India and Brazil, whose currencies and stock markets suffered steep losses this week.

"Amplifications, feedback loops and sensitivity to risk perceptions will complicate the task of exit and necessitate very close and constant dialogue and cooperation between central banks," Jean-Pierre Landau, a former deputy governor of the Bank of France, warned in his presentation.

NET POSITIVE

Turkish Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci attended the conference, but his Brazilian counterpart, Alexandre Tombini, canceled in order to stay home and deal with the crisis.

Tombini was replaced in Jackson Hole by his deputy, Luiz Pereira, who argued that a tapering of the Fed's bond purchases might actually be a net benefit for emerging economies if it signaled that the U.S. economy was picking up steam. A stronger United States should spell stronger demand for exports from emerging economies, including Brazil.

Landau argued that central banks in advanced economies had cooperated successfully during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, when they coordinated on interest rates cuts and set up currency swap lines. As a result, they could do so again in the future with an eye toward moderating the spillovers from their actions.

But, he acknowledged it would be difficult to get agreement to subordinate national priorities in advance, a point echoed by others.

"How much should domestic monetary policy restrain itself for the stability of global (conditions)?" asked Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and professor at Carnegie Mellon University. "That's a fundamental problem for monetary policy."

Lockhart said the Fed had a legal obligation to focus on domestic U.S. goals, but allowed that there could be circumstances when the international impact of its actions could be taken into account.

"If a policy maker in the United States believed that the global consequences of taking a domestic action would spill back over into the U.S. economy in a very negative way, that clearly is within the scope of consideration," he said in the interview.

There was also discussion about the need for emerging market nations to develop tools to control credit flows. Without such tools, these countries could lose the ability to control domestic financial conditions with monetary policy.

But Terrence Checki of the New York Fed cautioned that monetary policy may not be the best way to deal with financial excesses, and others said domestic priorities should not be subordinated to international obligations.

Don Kohn, a former Fed Vice Chairman and a candidate for the top job when Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's term ends in January, countered the claim that monetary policy might be too loose globally, citing elevated jobless rates in rich countries.

"One of the ways that monetary policy of the United States was transmitted was by resistance to exchange rate appreciation in other countries," he said, voicing a familiar Fed argument that emerging economies could better absorb easy U.S. policy if they allowed their own exchange rates to fluctuate.

(Writing by Alister Bull; editing by Gunna Dickson)
 
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