Re: Saving Private Abhisit
Dec 7, 1 pm: "Newin backing Abhisit as PM. Should we laugh or cry?" A reader texted me. Well, we can laugh until our tears run dry. Seriously though, it's not quite over yet. The Democrats are having an executive board meeting at 2 pm and the Chuan-Abhisit issue is expected to be discussed. As we have heard, the Newin faction is still gritting its teeth over Abhisit, making many faction members "vulnerable" to the sugar daddy on the other side.
This morning the Puea Thai Party has voted to elect Youngyuth Wichaidit as its new leader. The decision, reportedly a change of heart by ex-prime minister Somchai Wongsawat and his wife Yaowapa, reportedly puzzled favourite candidate Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister, for a while but she finally came to term with it.
Yongyuth is an OK man but with no premiership materials. The party also appointed an executive board that comprises totally low-profile and non-MP figures. The motives are evident: When/if another party dissolution storm brews, no big names will be affected. This, I'm afraid, will be an established formula for most parties in the future when it comes to appointing their executives. Funny, isn't it? Just when we are trying to get rid of "nominees" now it will be hard to walk into Parliament and not bump into someone who isn't some nominee's nominee.
From what we have heard, the Puea Thai Party is still putting up a fight. I think it will go down to the wire and unless a royal command is handed down approving the nomination of Abhisit or Chuan, the Democrats can never be sure. According to Suthep, the Puea Thai camp is making a very sweet offer: If you come to us with 5 MPs, you'll get one Cabinet post.
Knowing Thai politicians, many jaws must have hit the floor and a lot of hush-hush meetings may be already taking place.
Note: From here on, Puea Thai will be spelt "Phue Thai" according to its registration documents.
Dec 7, 3.30 pm: From Greg Love (Hua Hin): "Will the Democrats go about appointing ministers with so many factions to please, and still have enough left to please their own loyal members? I mean this is Thailand, and I would imagine the rats leaving their sinking ships still have a price......or is maybe a truly new generation arising???"
If the Democrats survive the Pheu Thai Party's last-minute do-or-die onslaught, and if the threats of the "Red Army" besieging Parliament do not materialise, the real hard part will begin. But with their own party still intact, I mean never been "diluted" by court dissolution orders, the Democrats will be able to find enough credible names under their quota to fill the Cabinet. Of course, you will see names from the other camps that may make you shake your head, but as far as human resources go, the Democrats have a good advantage compared with their Pheu Thai rivals.
But what do we have here _ rats jumping ships or a new brave generation coming of age? Well, let's say this new generation of rats are quite brave to leave their ships like that.
The Democrats' real advantage, however, will be the lack of pressure to amend the Constitution. The Samak and Somchai governments fell simply because constitutional amendments became their agenda, something that either provoked or played into the hands of the PAD.
A Democrat government will likely face a different kind of street pressure, though. How far the red-shirt movement will go to bring it down will remain to be seen, however.
"Today's Truth" TV programme hosts have held another mobile forum, in which they condemned the "new form of coup" and Anupong in particular. The three hosts _ Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Nattawut Saikua _ did not make an explicit call for a red-shirt uprising but they did repeatedly say what was happening on the political scene was "unacceptable." Thaksin's planned phone-in on Dec 13 is apparently still on and he is set to "say it all", according to the TV hosts.
Dec 7, 6.30 pm: Abhisit has made his first public statement since becoming the front-runner for premiership. The fact that he had spoken out about it is more important than his expected national-unity-is-my-agenda message. He would not have gone public with any agenda if he had not been confident of support right now.
Abhisit said his government would strive to bring back national harmony, restore the country's image and repair damage caused to tourism by the political showdown. Asked if he was worried that the political conflicts would make his government shortlived like the last two administrations, he said how long his government stays depends mainly on its perfomance.
"You can look at it two ways. On one hand, this is a time of crisis which makes it very difficult for all of us. On the other hand, it will force us to really work and devote ourselves and listen to what society has to say at the same time," Abhisit said.
I never doubt his oratory skills, be it on a big stage or in a mini group interview. I think few do. His real challenge, obviously, is how to act, mobilize, implement and execute as the chief executive of a deeply-divided nation still in reeling and in turmoil. Most of all, how he can reinvent himself as a remotely neutral leader after having been dragged to much to one side of the conflict may have to be the first priority on his agenda.
Dec 7, 10 pm: "At which point do you believe we will actually get real clarity as to whom is to govern, and do you think they will have the mandate from the public to do so successfully?" asks Michael Brear.
When the prime minister is sworn in. No kidding here, Mike. The Democrats are not certain themselves. Rumours about some members of the Newin camp are to be "priced out" of the alliance are continuous. And even though Sanan has pledged to support the Democrats, there is no guarantee all MPs of the defunct Chat Thai Party would follow him. This is why Abhisit and Suthep will pay a courtesy call on Banharn tomorrow to make an earnest plea for his support.
You also mentioned a UN-observed new election in the future. I can't laugh at that. Believe it or not, I wrote an article a year and a half ago joking that the PAD will become a fortress of militants with gun-totting guards searching visitors. What do we know?
Now from Jeremy: "Please enlighten me: all this reporting of Newin siding with the Democrats, Newin changing his mind, Newin this and Newin that - has everyone forgotten that he was banned from politics? Doesn't that ban carry any weight? Can't he be taken to task from being so blatantly involved with political manoevouring? I simply do not understand"
Welcome to the club, buddy.
Dec 8, 11.30 am: A quick wrap-up for you. The Democrats now want the House to convene the extra session ASAP because the Pheu Thai manoeuvring to unsettle the alliance is getting more intense by the minute. A motion to convene the House session, remember, has to be approved by the King.
Acting PM Chavarat has apparently dismissed a House dissolution, saying he has been told, or warned, that it could only prolong the crisis. Moreover, he admitted that he was not even sure he had the power to dissolve the House.
The Democrats surely don't want this to drag on. Rumours have it the Newin faction is in danger of a break-up. The Pheu Thai Party now is claiming about 202 MPs. All it takes is some 25 more and we are back to the stalemate.
I will be back in the afternoon. Please stay tuned. You can also follow major breaking news on the breaking news section of our website.
Dec 8, 3 pm: The Democrat motion to convene a special House session has been submitted. The Pheu Thai Party is also planning to submit a similar motion of its own. House Speaker Chai said it would take about three days to check the signatures before the Democrat motion can be presented to HM the King.
As of now, the House session may take place as late as next week. It promises to be a very long, anxious wait for Abhisit. Our latest information has it that only 21 Newin faction MPs remain committed to the Democrat alliance.
Dec 8, 3.30 pm: While we are waiting for new major developments, here are some Abhisit fun facts:
...Former finance minister Tarrin Nimanahaeminda, who was always reported to be at odds with Abhisit at the Democrat Party, once described his young party colleague as having an "exceptional mind".
....That "exceptional mind" once put his ATM code near his ATM card, and a house maid reportedly exploited them big time.
....He's addicted to iPod. His carries like 8,000 songs.
....His whole family doesn't eat breakfast.
....If you aren't his close relative, never expect to enter his house. He never invites anyone, using the same old "It's so messy" excuse.
....He wakes up very early, and loves to drive his kids to school.
Part 5
Dec 7, 1 pm: "Newin backing Abhisit as PM. Should we laugh or cry?" A reader texted me. Well, we can laugh until our tears run dry. Seriously though, it's not quite over yet. The Democrats are having an executive board meeting at 2 pm and the Chuan-Abhisit issue is expected to be discussed. As we have heard, the Newin faction is still gritting its teeth over Abhisit, making many faction members "vulnerable" to the sugar daddy on the other side.
This morning the Puea Thai Party has voted to elect Youngyuth Wichaidit as its new leader. The decision, reportedly a change of heart by ex-prime minister Somchai Wongsawat and his wife Yaowapa, reportedly puzzled favourite candidate Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin's sister, for a while but she finally came to term with it.
Yongyuth is an OK man but with no premiership materials. The party also appointed an executive board that comprises totally low-profile and non-MP figures. The motives are evident: When/if another party dissolution storm brews, no big names will be affected. This, I'm afraid, will be an established formula for most parties in the future when it comes to appointing their executives. Funny, isn't it? Just when we are trying to get rid of "nominees" now it will be hard to walk into Parliament and not bump into someone who isn't some nominee's nominee.
From what we have heard, the Puea Thai Party is still putting up a fight. I think it will go down to the wire and unless a royal command is handed down approving the nomination of Abhisit or Chuan, the Democrats can never be sure. According to Suthep, the Puea Thai camp is making a very sweet offer: If you come to us with 5 MPs, you'll get one Cabinet post.
Knowing Thai politicians, many jaws must have hit the floor and a lot of hush-hush meetings may be already taking place.
Note: From here on, Puea Thai will be spelt "Phue Thai" according to its registration documents.
Dec 7, 3.30 pm: From Greg Love (Hua Hin): "Will the Democrats go about appointing ministers with so many factions to please, and still have enough left to please their own loyal members? I mean this is Thailand, and I would imagine the rats leaving their sinking ships still have a price......or is maybe a truly new generation arising???"
If the Democrats survive the Pheu Thai Party's last-minute do-or-die onslaught, and if the threats of the "Red Army" besieging Parliament do not materialise, the real hard part will begin. But with their own party still intact, I mean never been "diluted" by court dissolution orders, the Democrats will be able to find enough credible names under their quota to fill the Cabinet. Of course, you will see names from the other camps that may make you shake your head, but as far as human resources go, the Democrats have a good advantage compared with their Pheu Thai rivals.
But what do we have here _ rats jumping ships or a new brave generation coming of age? Well, let's say this new generation of rats are quite brave to leave their ships like that.
The Democrats' real advantage, however, will be the lack of pressure to amend the Constitution. The Samak and Somchai governments fell simply because constitutional amendments became their agenda, something that either provoked or played into the hands of the PAD.
A Democrat government will likely face a different kind of street pressure, though. How far the red-shirt movement will go to bring it down will remain to be seen, however.
"Today's Truth" TV programme hosts have held another mobile forum, in which they condemned the "new form of coup" and Anupong in particular. The three hosts _ Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Nattawut Saikua _ did not make an explicit call for a red-shirt uprising but they did repeatedly say what was happening on the political scene was "unacceptable." Thaksin's planned phone-in on Dec 13 is apparently still on and he is set to "say it all", according to the TV hosts.
Dec 7, 6.30 pm: Abhisit has made his first public statement since becoming the front-runner for premiership. The fact that he had spoken out about it is more important than his expected national-unity-is-my-agenda message. He would not have gone public with any agenda if he had not been confident of support right now.
Abhisit said his government would strive to bring back national harmony, restore the country's image and repair damage caused to tourism by the political showdown. Asked if he was worried that the political conflicts would make his government shortlived like the last two administrations, he said how long his government stays depends mainly on its perfomance.
"You can look at it two ways. On one hand, this is a time of crisis which makes it very difficult for all of us. On the other hand, it will force us to really work and devote ourselves and listen to what society has to say at the same time," Abhisit said.
I never doubt his oratory skills, be it on a big stage or in a mini group interview. I think few do. His real challenge, obviously, is how to act, mobilize, implement and execute as the chief executive of a deeply-divided nation still in reeling and in turmoil. Most of all, how he can reinvent himself as a remotely neutral leader after having been dragged to much to one side of the conflict may have to be the first priority on his agenda.
Dec 7, 10 pm: "At which point do you believe we will actually get real clarity as to whom is to govern, and do you think they will have the mandate from the public to do so successfully?" asks Michael Brear.
When the prime minister is sworn in. No kidding here, Mike. The Democrats are not certain themselves. Rumours about some members of the Newin camp are to be "priced out" of the alliance are continuous. And even though Sanan has pledged to support the Democrats, there is no guarantee all MPs of the defunct Chat Thai Party would follow him. This is why Abhisit and Suthep will pay a courtesy call on Banharn tomorrow to make an earnest plea for his support.
You also mentioned a UN-observed new election in the future. I can't laugh at that. Believe it or not, I wrote an article a year and a half ago joking that the PAD will become a fortress of militants with gun-totting guards searching visitors. What do we know?
Now from Jeremy: "Please enlighten me: all this reporting of Newin siding with the Democrats, Newin changing his mind, Newin this and Newin that - has everyone forgotten that he was banned from politics? Doesn't that ban carry any weight? Can't he be taken to task from being so blatantly involved with political manoevouring? I simply do not understand"
Welcome to the club, buddy.
Dec 8, 11.30 am: A quick wrap-up for you. The Democrats now want the House to convene the extra session ASAP because the Pheu Thai manoeuvring to unsettle the alliance is getting more intense by the minute. A motion to convene the House session, remember, has to be approved by the King.
Acting PM Chavarat has apparently dismissed a House dissolution, saying he has been told, or warned, that it could only prolong the crisis. Moreover, he admitted that he was not even sure he had the power to dissolve the House.
The Democrats surely don't want this to drag on. Rumours have it the Newin faction is in danger of a break-up. The Pheu Thai Party now is claiming about 202 MPs. All it takes is some 25 more and we are back to the stalemate.
I will be back in the afternoon. Please stay tuned. You can also follow major breaking news on the breaking news section of our website.
Dec 8, 3 pm: The Democrat motion to convene a special House session has been submitted. The Pheu Thai Party is also planning to submit a similar motion of its own. House Speaker Chai said it would take about three days to check the signatures before the Democrat motion can be presented to HM the King.
As of now, the House session may take place as late as next week. It promises to be a very long, anxious wait for Abhisit. Our latest information has it that only 21 Newin faction MPs remain committed to the Democrat alliance.
Dec 8, 3.30 pm: While we are waiting for new major developments, here are some Abhisit fun facts:
...Former finance minister Tarrin Nimanahaeminda, who was always reported to be at odds with Abhisit at the Democrat Party, once described his young party colleague as having an "exceptional mind".
....That "exceptional mind" once put his ATM code near his ATM card, and a house maid reportedly exploited them big time.
....He's addicted to iPod. His carries like 8,000 songs.
....His whole family doesn't eat breakfast.
....If you aren't his close relative, never expect to enter his house. He never invites anyone, using the same old "It's so messy" excuse.
....He wakes up very early, and loves to drive his kids to school.
Part 5
