It has come to my attention that there is an alleged but not presently fully substantiated conjecture of an official post-election narrative for Singaporeans to spread to distract from the actual truth of how GE2015 was won and it is this:
Immediate Post-Election Directive for RC leaders, PAP ghostwriters and PAP internet brigade: Control the Opposition by using the time-tested divide and conquer strategy...
"Blame the New Citizens"
However, the following passages may bring reality to light and the truth a little clearer.
The new unsubstantiated rhetoric I have been reading on a lot of pro-opposition sites in the aftermath of GE2015 is that new citizens are mainly responsible for the 15% swing in votes for PAP. There was very little data quoted anywhere to corroborate the claim.
(Why 15% swing and not 10%? Because the ground is expecting a 5% swing against the PAP and PAP also knows that. That's why almost all PAP cadres and candidates are in panic mode in the lead up to the election, except PAP's inner circle, which include GCT. That's why MP GRC never feel the need for any rally even against the backdrop of a strong WP team contesting there and MP GRC's GE2011 result is only 58%, easily could be toppled, and TCJ isn't helping much with his 'exercise' comment and GCT's 'pieces of dog meat' comment!)
Even the decent dissenting blogs such as Yawning Bread which usually tend to be rational and civil claimed that the new citizens could be responsible partly for the swing without backing it up with any statistics:
https://yawningbread.wordpress.com/2015/09/12/general-election-2015-huge-win-for-pap-signals-stasis/
I wanted to research a bit more to find out if there was any truth in that. Surprisingly, the data is readily available on Singstats despite Yawning Bread claiming that the government does not provide statistics on new citizens: http://www.nptd.gov.sg/portals/0/news/population-in-brief-2014.pdf - Page 13.
There are a few news articles as well that seem to quote similar numbers: http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year
Going by these numbers, if we assume that 20,000 new citizens were added between GE2011 and GE2015 every year, we would get 80,000. To play a bit conservatively and simplify the calculations, let's say that there were 100,000 new citizens added between the last election and this.
Firstly, not every new citizen may be of voting age as I presume a large percentage of them will be families. Families with children under the voting age. But once again for simplification, let's assume all 100,000 are of voting age.
Secondly, not everyone may be pro-PAP as a lot of the pro-opposition comments are accusing. But let's ignore cases like Han Hui Hui who became a citizen 2 years ago. Let's ignore the likes of Chen Show Mao who become a citizen a couple of decades ago. And assume that 100% of the new citizens have an inclination to vote for PAP.
Let's ignore that some of them may have abstained. Some of them may have had their votes rejected / spoiled. Let's assume that ALL 100,000 voted for PAP.
If we compare this number with the total eligible voters in GE2015, we get: 100,000 / 2,462,926 = 4%.
Realistically, I'm guessing the number will be around 2% once you take voting eligibility, political affiliations, rejected / abstained votes into account but I have no way to determine that. But 4% is still far lower than the 10% vote swing towards the PAP.
So until otherwise substantiated, I'm going to believe that the new citizen rhetoric is just that. It is the official narrative that the powers that be had directed the ghostwriters and internet brigade to spread all over the online and offline channels. However, it is an unqualified excuse for losing and to perpetuate xenophobia, which is the divide and conquer strategy adopted by the powers that be.
The population white paper brought in hundreds of thousands of Permanent Residents, Employment pass, Q pass, Work Permit workers, and they're the ones that choke up the amenities and infrastructure, but these groups CANNOT VOTE! Only citizens can vote!
Some years ago, the government had already said its scheme to convert PR to new citizens have faced with lukewarm reception from the PR, as they have to serve national service and renounce their citizenship of their home country, among other things.
Besides, the government is not so stupid to blindly offer citizenship to low-net-worth people that fill jobs but can cause more problems when the economy turns sour and the jobs go 'pooh!' in a retrenchment exercise. But with PR, these PR can go back to their own country and Singapore would not be saddled with them. Only those high-net-worth 'global investor' category are lured with new citizenship, like Gong Li, Jet Li, Jackie Chan, etc...
Immediate Post-Election Directive for RC leaders, PAP ghostwriters and PAP internet brigade: Control the Opposition by using the time-tested divide and conquer strategy...
"Blame the New Citizens"
However, the following passages may bring reality to light and the truth a little clearer.
The new unsubstantiated rhetoric I have been reading on a lot of pro-opposition sites in the aftermath of GE2015 is that new citizens are mainly responsible for the 15% swing in votes for PAP. There was very little data quoted anywhere to corroborate the claim.
(Why 15% swing and not 10%? Because the ground is expecting a 5% swing against the PAP and PAP also knows that. That's why almost all PAP cadres and candidates are in panic mode in the lead up to the election, except PAP's inner circle, which include GCT. That's why MP GRC never feel the need for any rally even against the backdrop of a strong WP team contesting there and MP GRC's GE2011 result is only 58%, easily could be toppled, and TCJ isn't helping much with his 'exercise' comment and GCT's 'pieces of dog meat' comment!)
Even the decent dissenting blogs such as Yawning Bread which usually tend to be rational and civil claimed that the new citizens could be responsible partly for the swing without backing it up with any statistics:
https://yawningbread.wordpress.com/2015/09/12/general-election-2015-huge-win-for-pap-signals-stasis/
I wanted to research a bit more to find out if there was any truth in that. Surprisingly, the data is readily available on Singstats despite Yawning Bread claiming that the government does not provide statistics on new citizens: http://www.nptd.gov.sg/portals/0/news/population-in-brief-2014.pdf - Page 13.
There are a few news articles as well that seem to quote similar numbers: http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/goal-15000-25000-new-citizens-a-year
Going by these numbers, if we assume that 20,000 new citizens were added between GE2011 and GE2015 every year, we would get 80,000. To play a bit conservatively and simplify the calculations, let's say that there were 100,000 new citizens added between the last election and this.
Firstly, not every new citizen may be of voting age as I presume a large percentage of them will be families. Families with children under the voting age. But once again for simplification, let's assume all 100,000 are of voting age.
Secondly, not everyone may be pro-PAP as a lot of the pro-opposition comments are accusing. But let's ignore cases like Han Hui Hui who became a citizen 2 years ago. Let's ignore the likes of Chen Show Mao who become a citizen a couple of decades ago. And assume that 100% of the new citizens have an inclination to vote for PAP.
Let's ignore that some of them may have abstained. Some of them may have had their votes rejected / spoiled. Let's assume that ALL 100,000 voted for PAP.
If we compare this number with the total eligible voters in GE2015, we get: 100,000 / 2,462,926 = 4%.
Realistically, I'm guessing the number will be around 2% once you take voting eligibility, political affiliations, rejected / abstained votes into account but I have no way to determine that. But 4% is still far lower than the 10% vote swing towards the PAP.
So until otherwise substantiated, I'm going to believe that the new citizen rhetoric is just that. It is the official narrative that the powers that be had directed the ghostwriters and internet brigade to spread all over the online and offline channels. However, it is an unqualified excuse for losing and to perpetuate xenophobia, which is the divide and conquer strategy adopted by the powers that be.
The population white paper brought in hundreds of thousands of Permanent Residents, Employment pass, Q pass, Work Permit workers, and they're the ones that choke up the amenities and infrastructure, but these groups CANNOT VOTE! Only citizens can vote!
Some years ago, the government had already said its scheme to convert PR to new citizens have faced with lukewarm reception from the PR, as they have to serve national service and renounce their citizenship of their home country, among other things.
Besides, the government is not so stupid to blindly offer citizenship to low-net-worth people that fill jobs but can cause more problems when the economy turns sour and the jobs go 'pooh!' in a retrenchment exercise. But with PR, these PR can go back to their own country and Singapore would not be saddled with them. Only those high-net-worth 'global investor' category are lured with new citizenship, like Gong Li, Jet Li, Jackie Chan, etc...
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