Heard this from a reliable source amongst the highest echelons of the PAP.
The PAP was well aware that Aljunied is a risky proposition for them. This was clear even in 2006 and GY just scraped through.
The PAP also knew that this time LTK is going to contest the Aljunied GRC, especially after the electoral boundaries were redrawn. They had factored that in and they knew that Aljunied is a goner in that case.
There was apparently considerable thinking to move GY to East coast GRC so that his success is guaranteed. This was mooted by GCT. It carried through the day and apparently GY was also sure that he would be moved to East Coast.
Suddenly for no apparent reason, Lim Swee Say was moved to East Coast and GY was retained at Aljunied. Apparently the decision was taken by LHL, TCH and WKS. No one knows the rationale for that decision.
There are 2 theories going around:
One, they didn't want to sacrifice Lim Swee Say and wanted a safe seat for him.
Second, some sections in the PAP believed that GY was gaining international stature (much more than the PM himself) and wanted to cut down his size. He was also considered to be GCT's man and LHL wanted him out respectably.
One should also note that it is only GCT who is making statements supporting GY. LHL is conspicuous by his silence on GCT. LKY's threat to Aljunied residents (leaving residents confused as per GY) is actually sounding the death knell for GY.
So, PAP wants GY to lose.
If this has even some truth to it, one can easily speculate that there's enough dissent even within PAP ranks and one just has to wait for Mentor Lee to exit for the dissent to come out in the open.
Based on last night's appraisal at PAP's HQ, they have given up on Aljunied and Hougang.
Everyone is keenly watching the Bishan - Toa Payoh GRC as that seems to be at risk now.
Thinking thru what you just said. My take is that it does not make political sense to shift GY to a safe seat in East Coast as it will rise to perception that they are giving out on Aljunied. This bodes ill and will propel more credible fellows to rise up in opposition once they sense weakness. Portraying weakness is never an option. That would never happen at all. It is far better off for GY to stay on and fight. If he wins, it is no loss to PAP. If he loses, they are prepared to write him off - perhaps a possibility. I think this is the basis for PAP in current gameplay. But to purposely lose GY, I doubt so.
GY is the most senior politician in the second echelon of leadership, even more senior than TCH, and it is TCH who got chosen. GY does lack political ambition and is more of a technocrat, and he got no political base. In fact, PAP political structure is made up of a troika of LKY, LHL and GCT. GCT is the weakest among the three, and he is up there so as not to give perception that LKY and LHL wield all the power. When more power is concentrated, the rest will gather to present a challenge. PAP power system does not allow for anyone to build and concentrate a power base at present.
The rise of previously pro-establishment types in opposition is an indication of things to come primarily, LKY is at an old age and will not be around as a matter of time. Years of strong authoritarian rule have dampened the rise of any real challenge to present ruling regime. Things at the next decade look set to change. Factions could emerge within PAP itself. I reckon this will only happen if the LKY and LHL appear weak, and this gives an impetus to the others to emerge.
I noted LKY did say that Aljunied residents will have 5 years to learn and repent - interesting strange words ... did PAP give up? I took a look at recent demarcation of Aljunied. Portions of pro-opposition precincts eg Chai Chee have been put into Marine Parade, in exchange for the relatively middle-and upper class estate of Serangoon Gardens. WP supporters usually come from the lower income classes. Will the landed Singaporeans in Serangoon Gardens take a risk to vote against PAP?
Most people think that GY just scraped thru with opposition taking around 43% of votes in 2006. To me, I thought GY did pretty well by PAP standards. Past elections in Eunos region saw PAP scraping through with 51-52% of votes only. I still think Low Thia Kiang still face a tough fight. It may result in 5% swing but he needs 8% swing. If it is the past constituency of Aljunied, he might be able. For current one, I think it may be close but I still think Low Thia Kiang may not make it.
If Low Thia Kiang wins it, it is a clear signal that PAP is losing its lustre in Singapore especially if PAP cannot win with the landed Singaporeans. It opens doors to many opposition chaps to rise up, especially with the fear factor being less now. In this scenario, I reckon LHL is in for a hard time. It is not in his interest to purposely lose GY in my view as this will also possibly open a schism within the party. Perceptions cannot be hidden within the party. I think he would be aware the loss of Aljunied will usher in more challengers ahead, possibly within and outside the party Actually, even if PAP wins Aljunied, I think the die is cast against PAP in the years ahead.
As LHL continues with his soft approach, more challengers will still come forward. If he adopts a hard approach like LKY, I don't think that is possible now and it is an incredible loss of legitimacy for him. GCT started a different game of a soft approach, and LHL got no choice but to follow. Within PAP, there are also enough dissent. This dissent was already present in 1987 Marxist conspiracy and in the past, but due to LKY shrewd political plays of ruthlessness, nobody dares to stand up. In this age, we are seeing possibly power plays emerging. Can PAP keep a strong power centre? It will be interesting.
For WKS and MBT, I think they will still be in cabinet, but they will be shifted out in 2 years time. Politics demand some level of courtesy and prudence. It is far better to cite retirement, but to do so immediately after elections, I doubt LHL want to send this strong message of "discipline". These are senior politicians, and if they are junior ones, it is no issue.
Bishan-Toa Payoh - I really don't see CST team winning at all with CST's current health. He is 10 years late, and should have mount this challenge when he is at his peak in the mid nineties.
My wager is on PAP winning Aljunied. The property values are too much at stake for residents to stake on having an opposition even if they admire LTK much. I think the demarcations will play the advantage to PAP team. Either way, I do look at the votes cast in Aljunied with much anticipation.