https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2020-07-16/doc-iivhvpwx5669968.shtml
伊朗和中国签署25年协议 是对美国的回击吗？
伊朗和中国签署25年协议 是对美国的回击吗？
536
[文/ 卡韦·阿弗拉西亚比 译/ 观察者网 由冠群]
在最近几周，中国和伊朗一直在敲定一份合作协议的具体细节，这份协议可能具有极其重大的意义，该协议意味着两国将在未来四分之一个世纪继续合作并与美国脱钩。
《亚洲时报》获得的协议草案显示，作为北京雄心勃勃的一带一路倡议的一部分，中国将与伊朗签署一份为期长达25年的协议，中国将向伊朗的经济、安全和军事领域投资数百亿美元。
这样一份协议对伊朗百病缠身的能源行业尤为重要，现在伊朗急需大量资金来振兴本国衰败的石油工业。油井、炼油设施和其它石油基础设施现在需要多达1500亿美元来进行现代化升级。
目前，中伊两国的谈判仍在进行中，其谈判背景是唐纳德•特朗普仍希望通过施加最大强度的单边压力来扼杀伊朗经济并不断加剧中美竞争的紧张态势。
如果协议最终获得伊朗伊斯兰议会批准，那么这份协议就是对特朗普当局的沉重一击，此前特朗普当局一直在不懈努力希望将伊朗经济隔绝在国际社会之外。不出所料，中国和伊朗谈判协议的消息一出，就引来西方国家的一片谴责之声。
一些流亡海外的伊朗反对派人士已将这份协议称作是“卖国协议”，将其视为伊朗变成中国“卫星国”的明证。批评人士声称这份协议包含“垄断条款”，最有争议的部分是伊朗允许中国控制其在波斯湾里的一个岛屿。
在外泄的各版本协议中，最有名的一版用波斯语和英语写成，外泄的目的明显是要削弱这份协议，在这份协议里有些条款被认为是中国损害了伊朗的利益。
假如中国真的对伊朗进行大规模长期投资，那北京很有可能会接管伊朗具有地缘战略价值的港口恰赫巴哈尔（Chahbahar），该港口是伊朗进入印度洋的出海口。
目前，美国对伊制裁不包括此港口，这被看作是美国默许印度利用此港口（译注：目前印度是恰赫巴哈尔港的运营方）。在德黑兰看来，新德里并没有好好利用这个机会投入足够资金建设这个港口，而是和美国沆瀣一气对伊朗展开石油制裁。
恰赫巴哈尔港的地理位置 图片来源：谷歌地图
在当前的国际形势下，国际准则和原则已被特朗普当局针对伊中两国的单边挑衅性政策侵蚀殆尽，伊朗与中国签署这份新协议表明两国都开始改变各自的战略考量。
可以确定的是，中国、伊朗和周边的巴基斯坦正缓慢建立三国联盟。这一联盟可能还会把阿富汗纳入进来，并在假以时日后接纳伊拉克和叙利亚，这一战略联盟将会使华盛顿和新德里头疼不已。
叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德最近赞扬了伊朗和叙利亚签署的一份新补充协议，该协议标志着伊朗决心在这个战火纷飞的国家保留自己的战略立足点，将该国当作自己进入黎巴嫩和阿拉伯世界的通道和对以色列进行威慑的工具。这也显示出以色列和海湾阿拉伯国家对伊朗的施压，包括最近伊朗境内频发的袭击，并没有起到阻遏伊朗的目的。
就像以“最大抗力”应对“最大压力”一样，伊朗传统上应对域内和/或域外压力的办法就是以彼之道还诸彼身。
德黑兰清楚自己是西亚和中东地区的轴心强国，世界知道伊朗会选择合适的时间和地点报复纳坦兹核设施和帕尔钦军事基地遇袭事件中的幕后黑手。
中国和伊朗的最终协议将是双赢的，符合双方的国家利益。
在伊朗承受制裁和疫情双重打击之际，这份协议将使处境艰难的伊朗经济获得重要的喘息之机。此时伊朗的军事和核设施目标遭到破坏很可能是以色列和某些海湾阿拉伯国家携手完成的杰作。
纳坦兹核设施发生神秘火灾 图片来源：i24新闻截图
一位希望匿名的德黑兰政治学家说，“这些针对伊朗的攻击行动，其目的很可能是要阻止特朗普在11月份美国总统大选前几个月与伊朗达成协议。”
反过来，这使人们开始质疑特朗普真实的伊朗战略到底是什么，毕竟美国在联合国安理会刚刚遭受了重大挫折，安理会坚决拒绝了美国提出的一项对伊朗实施无限期武器禁运的提议。
此外，一位联合国专家谴责美国在今年一月份使用无人机杀害了伊军高级将领卡塞姆•苏莱马尼（Qasem Soleimani）和其它9名伊朗、伊拉克官员，声称这一行为是“肆意违反国际法的非法行为”。
根据联合国报告，此次无人机攻击侵犯了伊拉克的主权，并反过来“固化”了伊朗对美国的敌意，几乎使伊朗官员再也无法与特朗普当局展开直接外交接触。在伊朗由强硬派主导的新一届伊斯兰议会开始其运作后，这一局面变的尤为明显。
哈桑•鲁哈尼（Hassan Rouhani）总统领导的温和派政府现在已提前进入下一次伊朗总统选举前的跛脚鸭阶段，越来越无力推出重大的外交举措。
伊朗的某些政治分析人士辩称，德黑兰和华盛顿之间仍存在一个窄小的机会窗口期达成新协议，出现这个窗口期的部分原因是美国会对上述德黑兰 - 北京协议做出反应。
考虑到伊朗采取与“超级大国等距交往”的后革命立场，伊朗与中国达成协议反映了德黑兰在美国的压力下开始推行“新向东看”（new look East）战略。这与“新向西看”（new look West）战略逻辑相反，其目的是伊朗想在新冷战的惊涛骇浪中与各超级大国保持等距外交。
当然，这一切都建立在华盛顿愿意放松对伊制裁和威胁的假设之上。但能否如此还有待观察。同时，纳坦兹核设施和帕尔钦军事基地接二连三发生莫名其妙的火灾和受到破坏坚定了伊朗强硬派的看法，使其悲观的认为美国对伊政策不可能发生改变。
他们认为中国在联合国安理会坚定不移的捍卫伊朗利益，这证明了北京的可靠性。伊朗的强硬派同时也意识到伊朗有能力支持中国的一带一路倡议，该倡议将不仅服务于拥有8000万人口的伊朗市场，还会为更大的拥有46亿人口的欧亚大陆提供服务。
（观察者网由冠群译自《亚洲时报》）
Is the signing of the 25 year agreement between Iran and China a response to the United States?
10:41, July 16, 2020
Five hundred and thirty-six
[text / translated by Kawi afrahabi / observer network by Guanqun]
In recent weeks, China and Iran have been hammering out the details of a cooperation agreement that could be extremely significant, meaning the two countries will continue to cooperate and decouple from the United States for the next quarter century.
China aspiring to invest one belt, one road China initiative, will sign a 25 year agreement with Iran, which will invest tens of billions of dollars in the economic, security and military fields of Iran, according to the draft agreement obtained by the Asian times.
Such an agreement is particularly important for Iran's ailing energy industry, which is in urgent need of a lot of money to revive its ailing oil industry. Oil wells, refining facilities and other oil infrastructure now require up to $150 billion to modernize.
At present, the negotiations between China and Iran are still in progress. The background of the negotiations is that Donald Trump still hopes to strangle Iran's economy by exerting the maximum unilateral pressure and continuously intensify the tension of Sino US competition.
If the agreement is finally approved by Iran's Islamic parliament, it will be a heavy blow to the trump authorities, which have been working tirelessly to isolate the Iranian economy from the international community. As expected, as soon as the news of the negotiation agreement between China and Iran came out, it attracted a lot of condemnation from western countries.
Some Iranian opposition figures in exile have called the agreement a "traitorship agreement" as evidence that Iran has become a "satellite state" of China. Critics claim that the agreement contains "monopoly clauses," the most controversial part of which is Iran's allowing China to control an island in the Persian Gulf.
Among the various versions of the leaked agreement, the most famous one is written in Persian and English. The purpose of the leakage is obviously to weaken the agreement, in which some provisions are considered as damaging Iran's interests.
If China does make large-scale long-term investment in Iran, Beijing is likely to take over Iran's Geostrategic port, chahbaar, which is Iran's gateway to the Indian Ocean.
Currently, U.S. sanctions against Iraq do not include the port, which is seen as the United States tacitly allowing India to use the port. In Teheran's view, New Delhi did not make good use of the opportunity to invest enough money to build the port, but colluded with the United States to launch oil sanctions against Iran.
Location of the port of chahhbahar image source: Google Maps
In the current international situation, international norms and principles have been eroded by the unilateral and provocative policies of trump authorities against Iran and China. The signing of this new agreement between Iran and China shows that both countries have begun to change their strategic considerations.
To be sure, China, Iran and neighboring Pakistan are slowly establishing a three Nation Alliance. This alliance may also include Afghanistan and, in time, accept Iraq and Syria. This strategic alliance will be a headache for Washington and New Delhi.
Syrian President Bashar al Assad recently praised a new supplementary agreement signed between Iran and Syria, which marks Iran's determination to maintain its strategic foothold in this war-torn country, using it as its own access to Lebanon and the Arab world and as a deterrent to Israel. It also shows that the pressure exerted by Israel and the Gulf Arab States on Iran, including the recent frequent attacks in Iran, has not served to deter Iran.
Just like "maximum resistance" to "maximum pressure", Iran's traditional response to intra regional and / or extraterritorial pressure is to return it to the other side.
Tehran knows that it is an axis power in West Asia and the Middle East, and the world knows that Iran will choose the right time and place to retaliate against those behind the attack on Natanz nuclear facilities and Parchin military base.
The final agreement between China and Iran will be win-win and in line with the national interests of both sides.
The deal will give Iran's struggling economy an important respite at a time when Iran is suffering from both sanctions and the epidemic. At this time, the destruction of Iran's military and nuclear facilities is likely to be a masterpiece jointly completed by Israel and some Gulf Arab States.
Mysterious fire at Natanz nuclear facility photo source: I24 news screenshot
"These attacks on Iran are likely to prevent trump from reaching an agreement with Iran a few months before the U.S. presidential election in November," said a Teheran political scientist who wanted to be anonymous
On the contrary, people begin to question what Trump's real Iran strategy is. After all, the United States has just suffered a major setback in the UN Security Council, and the Security Council has resolutely rejected a proposal by the United States to impose an indefinite arms embargo on Iran.
In addition, a U.N. expert accused the U.S. of killing qasem soleimani, a senior Iraqi general, and nine other Iranian and Iraqi officials in January, calling the act "an illegal and wanton violation of international law.".
According to the United Nations report, the drone attack violated Iraq's sovereignty and, in turn, "solidified" Iran's hostility to the United States, making it almost impossible for Iranian officials to engage in direct diplomatic contacts with the trump authorities. This is especially true after the new Islamic parliament, dominated by hardliners, began to operate in Iran.
President Hassan Rouhani's moderate government has now entered the lame duck phase ahead of the next Iranian presidential election and is increasingly unable to launch major diplomatic initiatives.
Some political analysts in Iran argue that there is still a narrow window of opportunity between Tehran and Washington to reach a new agreement, in part because the United States will respond to the Tehran Beijing agreement.
Considering Iran's post revolutionary stance of "equal distance exchanges with superpowers", the agreement reached between Iran and China reflects that Tehran has begun to implement the "new look east" strategy under the pressure of the United States. This is contrary to the strategic logic of "new look west", which aims to maintain equidistant diplomacy with the superpowers in the stormy waves of the new cold war.
Of course, all this is based on the assumption that Washington is willing to relax sanctions and threats against Iraq. But it remains to be seen. At the same time, a series of unexplained fires and damages at Natanz nuclear facilities and Parchin military base have strengthened the view of Iranian hardliners, making them pessimistic that the US policy toward Iraq is impossible to change.
They believe that China's unswerving defense of Iran's interests in the UN Security Council proves the reliability of Beijing. China's one belt, one road initiative, is also recognized by Iran's hardliners. It will not only serve the Iran market with a population of 80 million, but also provide services for the larger Eurasian continent with a population of 4 billion 600 million.
(translated by Guanqun from the Asia Times)
伊朗和中国签署25年协议 是对美国的回击吗？
伊朗和中国签署25年协议 是对美国的回击吗？
536
[文/ 卡韦·阿弗拉西亚比 译/ 观察者网 由冠群]
在最近几周，中国和伊朗一直在敲定一份合作协议的具体细节，这份协议可能具有极其重大的意义，该协议意味着两国将在未来四分之一个世纪继续合作并与美国脱钩。
《亚洲时报》获得的协议草案显示，作为北京雄心勃勃的一带一路倡议的一部分，中国将与伊朗签署一份为期长达25年的协议，中国将向伊朗的经济、安全和军事领域投资数百亿美元。
这样一份协议对伊朗百病缠身的能源行业尤为重要，现在伊朗急需大量资金来振兴本国衰败的石油工业。油井、炼油设施和其它石油基础设施现在需要多达1500亿美元来进行现代化升级。
目前，中伊两国的谈判仍在进行中，其谈判背景是唐纳德•特朗普仍希望通过施加最大强度的单边压力来扼杀伊朗经济并不断加剧中美竞争的紧张态势。
如果协议最终获得伊朗伊斯兰议会批准，那么这份协议就是对特朗普当局的沉重一击，此前特朗普当局一直在不懈努力希望将伊朗经济隔绝在国际社会之外。不出所料，中国和伊朗谈判协议的消息一出，就引来西方国家的一片谴责之声。
一些流亡海外的伊朗反对派人士已将这份协议称作是“卖国协议”，将其视为伊朗变成中国“卫星国”的明证。批评人士声称这份协议包含“垄断条款”，最有争议的部分是伊朗允许中国控制其在波斯湾里的一个岛屿。
在外泄的各版本协议中，最有名的一版用波斯语和英语写成，外泄的目的明显是要削弱这份协议，在这份协议里有些条款被认为是中国损害了伊朗的利益。
假如中国真的对伊朗进行大规模长期投资，那北京很有可能会接管伊朗具有地缘战略价值的港口恰赫巴哈尔（Chahbahar），该港口是伊朗进入印度洋的出海口。
目前，美国对伊制裁不包括此港口，这被看作是美国默许印度利用此港口（译注：目前印度是恰赫巴哈尔港的运营方）。在德黑兰看来，新德里并没有好好利用这个机会投入足够资金建设这个港口，而是和美国沆瀣一气对伊朗展开石油制裁。
恰赫巴哈尔港的地理位置 图片来源：谷歌地图
在当前的国际形势下，国际准则和原则已被特朗普当局针对伊中两国的单边挑衅性政策侵蚀殆尽，伊朗与中国签署这份新协议表明两国都开始改变各自的战略考量。
可以确定的是，中国、伊朗和周边的巴基斯坦正缓慢建立三国联盟。这一联盟可能还会把阿富汗纳入进来，并在假以时日后接纳伊拉克和叙利亚，这一战略联盟将会使华盛顿和新德里头疼不已。
叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德最近赞扬了伊朗和叙利亚签署的一份新补充协议，该协议标志着伊朗决心在这个战火纷飞的国家保留自己的战略立足点，将该国当作自己进入黎巴嫩和阿拉伯世界的通道和对以色列进行威慑的工具。这也显示出以色列和海湾阿拉伯国家对伊朗的施压，包括最近伊朗境内频发的袭击，并没有起到阻遏伊朗的目的。
就像以“最大抗力”应对“最大压力”一样，伊朗传统上应对域内和/或域外压力的办法就是以彼之道还诸彼身。
德黑兰清楚自己是西亚和中东地区的轴心强国，世界知道伊朗会选择合适的时间和地点报复纳坦兹核设施和帕尔钦军事基地遇袭事件中的幕后黑手。
中国和伊朗的最终协议将是双赢的，符合双方的国家利益。
在伊朗承受制裁和疫情双重打击之际，这份协议将使处境艰难的伊朗经济获得重要的喘息之机。此时伊朗的军事和核设施目标遭到破坏很可能是以色列和某些海湾阿拉伯国家携手完成的杰作。
纳坦兹核设施发生神秘火灾 图片来源：i24新闻截图
一位希望匿名的德黑兰政治学家说，“这些针对伊朗的攻击行动，其目的很可能是要阻止特朗普在11月份美国总统大选前几个月与伊朗达成协议。”
反过来，这使人们开始质疑特朗普真实的伊朗战略到底是什么，毕竟美国在联合国安理会刚刚遭受了重大挫折，安理会坚决拒绝了美国提出的一项对伊朗实施无限期武器禁运的提议。
此外，一位联合国专家谴责美国在今年一月份使用无人机杀害了伊军高级将领卡塞姆•苏莱马尼（Qasem Soleimani）和其它9名伊朗、伊拉克官员，声称这一行为是“肆意违反国际法的非法行为”。
根据联合国报告，此次无人机攻击侵犯了伊拉克的主权，并反过来“固化”了伊朗对美国的敌意，几乎使伊朗官员再也无法与特朗普当局展开直接外交接触。在伊朗由强硬派主导的新一届伊斯兰议会开始其运作后，这一局面变的尤为明显。
哈桑•鲁哈尼（Hassan Rouhani）总统领导的温和派政府现在已提前进入下一次伊朗总统选举前的跛脚鸭阶段，越来越无力推出重大的外交举措。
伊朗的某些政治分析人士辩称，德黑兰和华盛顿之间仍存在一个窄小的机会窗口期达成新协议，出现这个窗口期的部分原因是美国会对上述德黑兰 - 北京协议做出反应。
考虑到伊朗采取与“超级大国等距交往”的后革命立场，伊朗与中国达成协议反映了德黑兰在美国的压力下开始推行“新向东看”（new look East）战略。这与“新向西看”（new look West）战略逻辑相反，其目的是伊朗想在新冷战的惊涛骇浪中与各超级大国保持等距外交。
当然，这一切都建立在华盛顿愿意放松对伊制裁和威胁的假设之上。但能否如此还有待观察。同时，纳坦兹核设施和帕尔钦军事基地接二连三发生莫名其妙的火灾和受到破坏坚定了伊朗强硬派的看法，使其悲观的认为美国对伊政策不可能发生改变。
他们认为中国在联合国安理会坚定不移的捍卫伊朗利益，这证明了北京的可靠性。伊朗的强硬派同时也意识到伊朗有能力支持中国的一带一路倡议，该倡议将不仅服务于拥有8000万人口的伊朗市场，还会为更大的拥有46亿人口的欧亚大陆提供服务。
（观察者网由冠群译自《亚洲时报》）
Is the signing of the 25 year agreement between Iran and China a response to the United States?
10:41, July 16, 2020
Five hundred and thirty-six
[text / translated by Kawi afrahabi / observer network by Guanqun]
In recent weeks, China and Iran have been hammering out the details of a cooperation agreement that could be extremely significant, meaning the two countries will continue to cooperate and decouple from the United States for the next quarter century.
China aspiring to invest one belt, one road China initiative, will sign a 25 year agreement with Iran, which will invest tens of billions of dollars in the economic, security and military fields of Iran, according to the draft agreement obtained by the Asian times.
Such an agreement is particularly important for Iran's ailing energy industry, which is in urgent need of a lot of money to revive its ailing oil industry. Oil wells, refining facilities and other oil infrastructure now require up to $150 billion to modernize.
At present, the negotiations between China and Iran are still in progress. The background of the negotiations is that Donald Trump still hopes to strangle Iran's economy by exerting the maximum unilateral pressure and continuously intensify the tension of Sino US competition.
If the agreement is finally approved by Iran's Islamic parliament, it will be a heavy blow to the trump authorities, which have been working tirelessly to isolate the Iranian economy from the international community. As expected, as soon as the news of the negotiation agreement between China and Iran came out, it attracted a lot of condemnation from western countries.
Some Iranian opposition figures in exile have called the agreement a "traitorship agreement" as evidence that Iran has become a "satellite state" of China. Critics claim that the agreement contains "monopoly clauses," the most controversial part of which is Iran's allowing China to control an island in the Persian Gulf.
Among the various versions of the leaked agreement, the most famous one is written in Persian and English. The purpose of the leakage is obviously to weaken the agreement, in which some provisions are considered as damaging Iran's interests.
If China does make large-scale long-term investment in Iran, Beijing is likely to take over Iran's Geostrategic port, chahbaar, which is Iran's gateway to the Indian Ocean.
Currently, U.S. sanctions against Iraq do not include the port, which is seen as the United States tacitly allowing India to use the port. In Teheran's view, New Delhi did not make good use of the opportunity to invest enough money to build the port, but colluded with the United States to launch oil sanctions against Iran.
Location of the port of chahhbahar image source: Google Maps
In the current international situation, international norms and principles have been eroded by the unilateral and provocative policies of trump authorities against Iran and China. The signing of this new agreement between Iran and China shows that both countries have begun to change their strategic considerations.
To be sure, China, Iran and neighboring Pakistan are slowly establishing a three Nation Alliance. This alliance may also include Afghanistan and, in time, accept Iraq and Syria. This strategic alliance will be a headache for Washington and New Delhi.
Syrian President Bashar al Assad recently praised a new supplementary agreement signed between Iran and Syria, which marks Iran's determination to maintain its strategic foothold in this war-torn country, using it as its own access to Lebanon and the Arab world and as a deterrent to Israel. It also shows that the pressure exerted by Israel and the Gulf Arab States on Iran, including the recent frequent attacks in Iran, has not served to deter Iran.
Just like "maximum resistance" to "maximum pressure", Iran's traditional response to intra regional and / or extraterritorial pressure is to return it to the other side.
Tehran knows that it is an axis power in West Asia and the Middle East, and the world knows that Iran will choose the right time and place to retaliate against those behind the attack on Natanz nuclear facilities and Parchin military base.
The final agreement between China and Iran will be win-win and in line with the national interests of both sides.
The deal will give Iran's struggling economy an important respite at a time when Iran is suffering from both sanctions and the epidemic. At this time, the destruction of Iran's military and nuclear facilities is likely to be a masterpiece jointly completed by Israel and some Gulf Arab States.
Mysterious fire at Natanz nuclear facility photo source: I24 news screenshot
"These attacks on Iran are likely to prevent trump from reaching an agreement with Iran a few months before the U.S. presidential election in November," said a Teheran political scientist who wanted to be anonymous
On the contrary, people begin to question what Trump's real Iran strategy is. After all, the United States has just suffered a major setback in the UN Security Council, and the Security Council has resolutely rejected a proposal by the United States to impose an indefinite arms embargo on Iran.
In addition, a U.N. expert accused the U.S. of killing qasem soleimani, a senior Iraqi general, and nine other Iranian and Iraqi officials in January, calling the act "an illegal and wanton violation of international law.".
According to the United Nations report, the drone attack violated Iraq's sovereignty and, in turn, "solidified" Iran's hostility to the United States, making it almost impossible for Iranian officials to engage in direct diplomatic contacts with the trump authorities. This is especially true after the new Islamic parliament, dominated by hardliners, began to operate in Iran.
President Hassan Rouhani's moderate government has now entered the lame duck phase ahead of the next Iranian presidential election and is increasingly unable to launch major diplomatic initiatives.
Some political analysts in Iran argue that there is still a narrow window of opportunity between Tehran and Washington to reach a new agreement, in part because the United States will respond to the Tehran Beijing agreement.
Considering Iran's post revolutionary stance of "equal distance exchanges with superpowers", the agreement reached between Iran and China reflects that Tehran has begun to implement the "new look east" strategy under the pressure of the United States. This is contrary to the strategic logic of "new look west", which aims to maintain equidistant diplomacy with the superpowers in the stormy waves of the new cold war.
Of course, all this is based on the assumption that Washington is willing to relax sanctions and threats against Iraq. But it remains to be seen. At the same time, a series of unexplained fires and damages at Natanz nuclear facilities and Parchin military base have strengthened the view of Iranian hardliners, making them pessimistic that the US policy toward Iraq is impossible to change.
They believe that China's unswerving defense of Iran's interests in the UN Security Council proves the reliability of Beijing. China's one belt, one road initiative, is also recognized by Iran's hardliners. It will not only serve the Iran market with a population of 80 million, but also provide services for the larger Eurasian continent with a population of 4 billion 600 million.
(translated by Guanqun from the Asia Times)
