WASHINGTON - REMEMBER inflation?
Just four months ago, soaring commodity costs were the biggest economic worry as oil raced to a record high. Now the buzz word is deflation, and that is altering both the economic outlook and the way governments need to respond to the threat of a deep recession.
'It is time to worry about inflation, or more precisely, the lack of inflation,' Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg wrote in a recent note to clients.
'The combination of falling commodity prices, rising unemployment and our expectation for several quarters of negative real growth suggests that (US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke will, perhaps within the next year, come face-to-face with his greatest fear: deflation.'
Falling prices are damaging to the economy because they encourage consumers to delay purchases and companies to cut costs - exactly the opposite of what is needed to revive growth and get credit markets functioning normally again.
For now, the risk of prolonged deflation looks remote, in large part because the United States, Europe and others are injecting trillions of dollars to reflate their economies, with more money likely to come soon.
Mr Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said headline inflation measures would probably briefly dip into negative territory in the 'near future.'
'What matters, if we are going to worry about it, is if we have sustained deflation,' he said last week. 'At this stage, this is something that we should worry about. But we think that the probability of such a sustained deflation is, for the moment, very small.'
Economic data due this week is expected to show that German wholesale prices dropped 1 per cent month-over-month in October, while euro zone inflation rose a modest 0.1 per cent, according to wires polls.
The European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank all cut short-term interest rates last week, and more reductions are expected before the year is through.
But lower rates do not do much for the broader economy when banks are reluctant to lend and consumers and companies have little interest in borrowing. The US and British economies contracted in the third quarter, and figures due on Friday are expected to show a decline in the euro zone as well.
OPENING THE TAPS
When the private sector cuts back, it falls to government to fill the void. The IMF said last week that more fiscal measures were needed as the developed world faces its first year-long contraction since World War Two.
Mr Rosenberg and other economists have been re-reading a speech Mr Bernanke gave in 2002 on how to tackle deflation. His suggestions included expanding the Fed's purchase of assets and offering low-interest loans to banks, two things the central bank has already done.
Mr Bernanke and company have been so aggressive in expanding lending and asset purchases that the Fed balance sheet has more than doubled over the past two months to just over US$2 trillion (S$2.96 trillion).
That does not include the US Treasury Department's US$700 billion authority to invest in banks and buy assets.
European countries have pledged 2.2 trillion euros (S$ to help stabilise financial markets.
So how much more is needed? Much of the focus so far has been on getting money into banks in the hope that they will turn around and lend it.
Attention now is starting to shift toward putting money in consumers' pockets and into infrastructure projects that would generate jobs.
'Without further stimulus, this will be a bleak fourth quarter with a bleak first quarter to follow,' said Mr Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock in Boston.
The US Congress is expected to take up another spending package before President-elect Barack Obama takes office in January, a proposal that could exceed US$300 billion.
It is expected to include money for projects such as building roads and bridges, as well as provisions to ease the burden on homeowners struggling to pay mortgages.
'A massive government stimulus package on the order of US$300 billion to US$500 billion will be needed to jolt the economy out of its coma,' said Mr Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.
The first stimulus package, which gave households a little over US$100 billion, helped to lift consumer spending for a couple of months and kept second-quarter growth in positive territory, but the effects were short-lived.
Mr Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, likened the first stimulus plan to 'feeding Krispy Kreme doughnuts to a marathon runner.'
'It may keep them going for 50 or 100 yards (45.72m or 91.44m).'
He said a second package that included more incentives to start new businesses or step up corporate spending could go a long way toward leading the US and global economies out of recession.
Businesses that had put off projects because of uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election may be primed to spend with a little government help. -- THOMSON REUTERS
Just four months ago, soaring commodity costs were the biggest economic worry as oil raced to a record high. Now the buzz word is deflation, and that is altering both the economic outlook and the way governments need to respond to the threat of a deep recession.
'It is time to worry about inflation, or more precisely, the lack of inflation,' Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg wrote in a recent note to clients.
'The combination of falling commodity prices, rising unemployment and our expectation for several quarters of negative real growth suggests that (US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke will, perhaps within the next year, come face-to-face with his greatest fear: deflation.'
Falling prices are damaging to the economy because they encourage consumers to delay purchases and companies to cut costs - exactly the opposite of what is needed to revive growth and get credit markets functioning normally again.
For now, the risk of prolonged deflation looks remote, in large part because the United States, Europe and others are injecting trillions of dollars to reflate their economies, with more money likely to come soon.
Mr Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said headline inflation measures would probably briefly dip into negative territory in the 'near future.'
'What matters, if we are going to worry about it, is if we have sustained deflation,' he said last week. 'At this stage, this is something that we should worry about. But we think that the probability of such a sustained deflation is, for the moment, very small.'
Economic data due this week is expected to show that German wholesale prices dropped 1 per cent month-over-month in October, while euro zone inflation rose a modest 0.1 per cent, according to wires polls.
The European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank all cut short-term interest rates last week, and more reductions are expected before the year is through.
But lower rates do not do much for the broader economy when banks are reluctant to lend and consumers and companies have little interest in borrowing. The US and British economies contracted in the third quarter, and figures due on Friday are expected to show a decline in the euro zone as well.
OPENING THE TAPS
When the private sector cuts back, it falls to government to fill the void. The IMF said last week that more fiscal measures were needed as the developed world faces its first year-long contraction since World War Two.
Mr Rosenberg and other economists have been re-reading a speech Mr Bernanke gave in 2002 on how to tackle deflation. His suggestions included expanding the Fed's purchase of assets and offering low-interest loans to banks, two things the central bank has already done.
Mr Bernanke and company have been so aggressive in expanding lending and asset purchases that the Fed balance sheet has more than doubled over the past two months to just over US$2 trillion (S$2.96 trillion).
That does not include the US Treasury Department's US$700 billion authority to invest in banks and buy assets.
European countries have pledged 2.2 trillion euros (S$ to help stabilise financial markets.
So how much more is needed? Much of the focus so far has been on getting money into banks in the hope that they will turn around and lend it.
Attention now is starting to shift toward putting money in consumers' pockets and into infrastructure projects that would generate jobs.
'Without further stimulus, this will be a bleak fourth quarter with a bleak first quarter to follow,' said Mr Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock in Boston.
The US Congress is expected to take up another spending package before President-elect Barack Obama takes office in January, a proposal that could exceed US$300 billion.
It is expected to include money for projects such as building roads and bridges, as well as provisions to ease the burden on homeowners struggling to pay mortgages.
'A massive government stimulus package on the order of US$300 billion to US$500 billion will be needed to jolt the economy out of its coma,' said Mr Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.
The first stimulus package, which gave households a little over US$100 billion, helped to lift consumer spending for a couple of months and kept second-quarter growth in positive territory, but the effects were short-lived.
Mr Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, likened the first stimulus plan to 'feeding Krispy Kreme doughnuts to a marathon runner.'
'It may keep them going for 50 or 100 yards (45.72m or 91.44m).'
He said a second package that included more incentives to start new businesses or step up corporate spending could go a long way toward leading the US and global economies out of recession.
Businesses that had put off projects because of uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election may be primed to spend with a little government help. -- THOMSON REUTERS
