China's stock market sneezes, the world's cold
环球股市再因中国而跌 Global stock markets fall again because of China but
有关中国将再次采取措施收紧银根的传言又一次打击了投资者的信心，全球股市再度因中国而普跌。 That China will take measures to tighten monetary policy again, rumors once again dealt a blow to the confidence of investors, global stock markets due to China but Pudie again.
美银行业绩未如人意 Bank of America results are not satisfactory
陆续公布２００９年第四季度业绩的美国银行、摩根士丹利行等几家大银行， 相关公司股票走势中信银行中国银行经营状况虽有不同程度的改善，但业绩增长情况并未如市场预期般强劲。 Are announced results for the fourth quarter of 2009, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Bank and other major high street banks, the relevant company's stock movements operating conditions of the Bank of China CITIC Bank although there are different degrees of improvement, but the growth performance was not as strong as expected . 美国１２月份新房开工量低于市场预期， 也表明房地产业的复苏仍需时日。 U.S. housing starts in December is lower than market expectations, but also shows that the recovery of the real estate industry still needs time. 这些对市场情绪均造成负面影响。 These pairs have a negative impact on market sentiment. 加上中国可能再度收紧银根，导致投资者避险情绪上升，美元汇率大幅攀升，美元指数再度升到78点之上，股市则出现大幅下跌。 And China may again tighten the money supply, leading to rising investor risk aversion, the dollar exchange rate rose sharply, the dollar index rose to 78 points again on the stock market then fell sharply.
发达市场经济虽在复苏，但仍十分疲弱。 Although the recovery of developed market economies, it is still very weak. 德国经济去年大幅萎缩了5%，是二战以来最严重的衰退，显示这个欧洲最大经济体仍增长乏力。 Germany's economy contracted 5 percent last fiscal year, is the most serious recession since World War II, showing that growth in Europe's largest economy is still weak. 英国央行继续维持0.5％基准利率不变，同时保持2000亿英镑量化宽松规模， 与市场预期相符。 The Bank of England to maintain 0.5% benchmark interest rate unchanged, while maintaining the scale of 200 billion pounds of quantitative easing, in line with market expectations.
尽管如此，对发达市场2010年的表现，市场看法开始有所改善。 Nonetheless, the performance of developed markets in 2010, the market view began to improve.
渣打银行认为，由于从2008年末到2009年初的周期性底部已获得了大量的收益，投资者应考虑从新兴市场和亚洲（除日本）地区的股市进行获利了结；而美国可能继续处于经济复苏和利率上升之间的“最佳位置”，并且维持的时间比亚洲（除日本）地区更长，因此，该行将北美股市12个月期的评级由“减持”调高为“中性” ，将日本股市的3个月期和12个月期评级均由“减持”调高为“中性”。 Standard Chartered Bank considered that as from late 2008 to early 2009, the cyclical nature of the bottom has been a large number of benefits, investors should consider emerging markets and Asia (excluding Japan) region, the stock market profit-taking; and the U.S. economic recovery is likely to continue in and higher interest rates between the "best location", and maintained longer than in Asia (excluding Japan) region longer and, therefore, about to 12-month period the North American market rating from "underweight" raised to "neutral" , the Japanese stock market 3-month and 12-month ratings are "underweight" raised to "neutral."
渣打银行提醒投资者，2010年需密切关注决定反弹是否延续的五大要素，包括经济复苏、流动性、利率、 企业盈利与估值。 Standard Chartered Bank to remind the investors in 2010 need to pay close attention to the decision whether to continue rebound in the five elements, including economic recovery, liquidity, interest rates, corporate earnings and valuation. 该行预计包括股票、石油乃至商品货币在内的全球大多数风险相关品种的市场可能在一季度会继续被推高。 The bank is expected to include stocks, oil as well as commodity currencies, including the world's most risk-related species may be a quarter of the market will continue to push up the cost. 但2010年与2009年相比，将是更为艰难的一年，投资者需要更为敏捷。 However, in 2010 compared with 2009, it will be a more difficult year, investors need to be more agile. 政府刺激经济政策的最终退出、货币紧缩及政策性举措将成为2010年市场重点关注的关键问题。 Government to stimulate the economic policy of the final withdrawal of monetary tightening and policy initiatives in 2010 will be the market focus on key issues.
东方将带领经济反弹 The East will lead the economic rebound
在2009年引领全球走上经济复苏轨道的中国，近日不断有关于将进一步收紧流动性的传言，这在一定程度上引起国际市场的担心。 In 2009 to lead the world onto the track of economic recovery in China, recently there have been further tightening of liquidity on the rumors, which to some extent, the international market concerns.
国际货币基金组织总裁斯特劳斯•卡恩表示，各国不应过早缩减对私人领域的经济支持，否则可能引发新一轮经济滑坡。 • IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn said that the States should not prematurely cut financial support to the private sector, or may trigger a new round of economic downturn. 卡恩称，私人需求和就业的复苏是各国经济刺激政策退出的必要条件。 Kahn said the recovery in private demand and employment is a national economic stimulus policy, a necessary condition for withdrawal. 目前，经济复苏形势还比较脆弱，各国应根据自身状况保持谨慎，避免经济重新面临衰退风险。 At present, the economic recovery, the situation is relatively weak, according to their own situation in all countries should be cautious to avoid the downside risks facing the economy back.
联合国发布的《2010国际经济形势与展望》初步报告也表示，如果各国政府过早解除其对经济的支持措施，全球经济有可能面临“双底衰退”。 The United Nations published "International Economic Situation and Prospects 2010," Initial reports also said that if governments lift their early support measures on the economy, the global economy faces a potential "double-dip recession."
不过，德意志银行指出，由于中国、印度等经济增长强劲，内地加息反而是经济增长强劲的信号。 However, Deutsche Bank pointed out that China and India of strong economic growth, the mainland's economic growth rate hikes the contrary, a strong signal. 在政策转向的初期，股市会有所调整，但在之后回升时，资金将会再次流入亚洲。 In the early stages of the policy shift, the stock market will be reorganized, but after the rebound, the funds will be re-flowed into Asia.
法国东方汇理的研究报告认为，随着全球经济走出衰退，东方将越来越明显地带领经济反弹，而西方各经济体则可能面对一段低于正常水平的增长时期。 Calyon research report said that as the global economy out of recession, led by the East will become increasingly clear that the economic rebound, while Western economies may face a period of below-normal levels of growth. 报告预计中国将在反弹中一路领先，印度和其他增长迅速的亚洲经济体紧随其后。 Report is expected to rebound in China would lead all the way, India and other rapidly growing Asian economies followed. 不过，经济的强劲增长将吸引大量资本涌入亚洲，这将极大地考验当地监管者管理此类资金流动的能力。 However, strong economic growth will attract a lot of capital inflows into Asia, which will greatly test the local regulators the ability to manage such flows.
报告认为亚洲经济面临的主要风险包括：美国2010年下半年出现双底衰退，将打击依赖出口的经济体及其货币；美联储提前加息，将打击股市并压制亚洲货币升值。 Reported that the main risks faced by Asian economies, including: the United States the second half of a double-dip recession in 2010, will discourage the export-dependent economies and their currencies; the Fed raise interest rates ahead of schedule, will crack down on the stock market and the repression of the Asian currency appreciation. 报告预计美联储和日本央行将在2011年第二季度开始加息，欧洲央行将在2010年第四季度加息。 U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan report is expected in the second quarter of 2011, interest rates, the ECB will raise interest rates the fourth quarter of 2010.
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