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What Should We Do If We Spiraled Up 10 X The Current Infection Cases?
- Thread starter tyudm
- Start date
The latest stats that are coming in seem to up the figure from 1% infection rate to well into the 10% range. This definitely needs further investigation and the results of the random antibody testing currently being conducted should shed a far more accurate light as to what the actual numbers actually are.
If we end up in the 10% range Singapore could already have 500,000 cases.
Florida has done 143,707 tests with 15,968 testing positive. That's almost 11% of the sample.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050542v1
Abstract
Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections to date has relied on RT-PCR testing. However, a failure to identify early cases imported to a country, bottlenecks in RT-PCR testing, and the existence of infections which are asymptomatic, sub-clinical, or with an alternative presentation than the standard cough and fever have resulted in an under-counting of the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2.
Here, we show how publicly available CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data can be repurposed to estimate the detection rate of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. We find a surge of non-influenza ILI above the seasonal average and show that this surge is correlated with COVID case counts across states. By quantifying the number of excess ILI patients in March relative to previous years and comparing excess ILI to confirmed COVID case counts, we estimate the symptomatic case detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the US to be 1/100 to 1/1000.
This corresponds to approximately 10 million presumed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 patients across the US during the week starting on March 15, 2020. Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in the US, we also show that the early epidemic in the US was unlikely to be doubling slower than every three days. Together these results suggest a conceptual model for the COVID epidemic in the US in which rapid spread across the US are combined with a large population of infected patients with presumably mild-to-moderate clinical symptoms.
We emphasize the importance of testing these findings with seroprevalence data, and discuss the broader potential to repurpose outpatient time series for early detection and understanding of emerging infectious diseases.
Abstract
Detection of SARS-CoV-2 infections to date has relied on RT-PCR testing. However, a failure to identify early cases imported to a country, bottlenecks in RT-PCR testing, and the existence of infections which are asymptomatic, sub-clinical, or with an alternative presentation than the standard cough and fever have resulted in an under-counting of the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2.
Here, we show how publicly available CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatient surveillance data can be repurposed to estimate the detection rate of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. We find a surge of non-influenza ILI above the seasonal average and show that this surge is correlated with COVID case counts across states. By quantifying the number of excess ILI patients in March relative to previous years and comparing excess ILI to confirmed COVID case counts, we estimate the symptomatic case detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the US to be 1/100 to 1/1000.
This corresponds to approximately 10 million presumed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 patients across the US during the week starting on March 15, 2020. Combining excess ILI counts with the date of onset of community transmission in the US, we also show that the early epidemic in the US was unlikely to be doubling slower than every three days. Together these results suggest a conceptual model for the COVID epidemic in the US in which rapid spread across the US are combined with a large population of infected patients with presumably mild-to-moderate clinical symptoms.
We emphasize the importance of testing these findings with seroprevalence data, and discuss the broader potential to repurpose outpatient time series for early detection and understanding of emerging infectious diseases.
More than 200 sailors aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt test positive for coronavirus
2-3 minutes
More than 200 sailors from the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the aircraft carrier whose captain was fired after warning of a coronavirus outbreak, have tested positive for COVID-19, the Navy said Tuesday.
The Navy said 79 percent of the crew had been tested as of Tuesday afternoon, with 230 sailors testing positive. More than 2,000 sailors had test results that came back negative.
No hospitalizations have been required, the Navy said, and 2,000 sailors were temporarily moved to shore in response to the outbreak.
"As testing continues, the ship will keep enough Sailors on board to sustain essential services and sanitize the ship in port," the Navy said.
The ship became the focus of national attention last week after its commanding officer, Capt. Brett Crozier, issued a memo warning that the crew would face dire consequences if the Navy failed to address the coronavirus outbreak on the ship. In a since-leaked message, Crozier asserted that sailors could die if the vast majority of the 4,800 crew members weren't evacuated.
The aircraft carrier is now docked at a Naval base in Guam to test and isolate crew members.
“We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die,” Crozier wrote. “If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our sailors.”
Crozier's letter, which was sent to more than 20 people and leaked to the news media a short while later, led to his ouster. Then-Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly defended the decision while speaking directly to the USS Theodore Roosevelt crew on Monday.
Modly suggested that Crozier's memo about the situation on the ship was a "betrayal." He also said Crozier was "too naive or too stupid to be a commanding officer of a ship like this" if he thought his widely sent memo would not be leaked to the press.
Modly resigned on Tuesday, just a day after his remarks to the crew were leaked to the media. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said he accepted Modly's resignation and that James McPherson, undersecretary of the Army, would take over as acting Navy secretary.
The Navy has now reported more than 660 coronavirus cases in its ranks.
2-3 minutes
More than 200 sailors from the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the aircraft carrier whose captain was fired after warning of a coronavirus outbreak, have tested positive for COVID-19, the Navy said Tuesday.
The Navy said 79 percent of the crew had been tested as of Tuesday afternoon, with 230 sailors testing positive. More than 2,000 sailors had test results that came back negative.
No hospitalizations have been required, the Navy said, and 2,000 sailors were temporarily moved to shore in response to the outbreak.
"As testing continues, the ship will keep enough Sailors on board to sustain essential services and sanitize the ship in port," the Navy said.
The ship became the focus of national attention last week after its commanding officer, Capt. Brett Crozier, issued a memo warning that the crew would face dire consequences if the Navy failed to address the coronavirus outbreak on the ship. In a since-leaked message, Crozier asserted that sailors could die if the vast majority of the 4,800 crew members weren't evacuated.
The aircraft carrier is now docked at a Naval base in Guam to test and isolate crew members.
“We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die,” Crozier wrote. “If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset — our sailors.”
Crozier's letter, which was sent to more than 20 people and leaked to the news media a short while later, led to his ouster. Then-Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly defended the decision while speaking directly to the USS Theodore Roosevelt crew on Monday.
Modly suggested that Crozier's memo about the situation on the ship was a "betrayal." He also said Crozier was "too naive or too stupid to be a commanding officer of a ship like this" if he thought his widely sent memo would not be leaked to the press.
Modly resigned on Tuesday, just a day after his remarks to the crew were leaked to the media. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said he accepted Modly's resignation and that James McPherson, undersecretary of the Army, would take over as acting Navy secretary.
The Navy has now reported more than 660 coronavirus cases in its ranks.
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