- Joined
- Jun 14, 2011
- Messages
- 2,219
- Points
- 83
First Support
Stay away from all banking and financial stocks. Trust me on this.
If you really want to punt on stocks in general, at least wait till early-mid April, then early June.
I still don't recommend doing it, but those two 'checkpoints' will give you a clearer picture.
There is no better time to make money than events like this. Black swans are rare.Yea right now making money should probably not be the most important thing in life.
There is no better time to make money than events like this. Black swans are rare.
If you're a daytime trader, volatility is your friend. Capitalize on people's fear. As far as the banks are concerned, the impact is still unclear and it has yet to play itself out. Suffice to say earnings will be severely tested. Lookout for NPLs. Supply side issues in China are on the mend and that's a huge positive. With a barrage of stimulus plan across the globe, we may just avoid recession in the second quarter.
I'm with the camp of analysts expecting a possible V shaped recovery. The virus would burn itself out in late May or early June and recovery thereafter will be in double digits. Covid-19 will not magically disappear from the face of the earth but the bulk of the countries would have it under control(sustainable). The key data is recovery/infection and not the morbid notion of how deadly the virus is.
There's further room for freefall.
Look at the timeline of discovery, action and control in China. It took about 3 months. I've posted a video by Nathan Rich who gave a snapshot of the events that unfold in China.Why do think you think the virus will burn itself out in june?
It is as likely to start its second round of its world tour restarting in china in june.
It's very clear now what scares people is not the death/recovery rate. It's the high exponential infection rate. About 20% of those infected with require intensive care. You go do the maths.