turn of the tides... two years on

[zhihau]

this thread is a follow-up on the last review, thought that it's always good to keep reviewing what had happened since GE11

still remember the day when the votes were cast on that fateful day in May 2011: the oppositions seemed to have employed the strategies of 背水一战, with LTK moving out of Hougang SMC to rumble at Aljunied GRC; and CST moving out of Potong Pasir SMC to fight it out at Bishan-Toa PaYoh GRC. what seems like an all out attack on all the fronts of the incumbent did not go in vain, the oppositions bagged 1 GRC and 1 SMC.

the significance of the fall of Aljunied GRC is not to be undermined, it showed that the electorate is clearly aware that absolute power corrupts absolutely. the AIM saga was subsequently surfaced, even prompted the PM to task the MND for reviews. the electorates will demand for an answer and we shall see if the electorate is satisfied with the answers in the next GE.

the YSL and MP saga certainly showed that politicians are all human and not higher mortals, the whiter than white image was torn and shredded for the first time, and WP had successfully protected its home base in Hougang. and today marks an important date, it is for the future generation to remember the date we started saying: enough is enough!

 

[myfoot123]

today marks an important date, it is for the future generation to remember the date we started saying: enough is enough!

Tonight Singaporeans will know whether PE residents got balls or not.

 

[cunnilaubu]

1,000 apologies. We, in East Coast, screwed up the last time. We promise to do better in 2016.

 

[zhihau]

1,000 apologies. We, in East Coast, screwed up the last time. We promise to do better in 2016.

bro,
no worries, looking at the electoral boundaries, T GRC, MP GRC, EC GRC, JC SMC can join in the fun.

 

[glockman]

1,000 apologies. We, in East Coast, screwed up the last time. We promise to do better in 2016.

Yes, we did what we could in 2011, but we will do much better in 2016.

 

[Fook Seng]

the significance of the fall of Aljunied GRC is not to be undermined, it showed that the electorate is clearly aware that absolute power corrupts absolutely. the AIM saga was subsequently surfaced, even prompted the PM to task the MND for reviews.!

The significance of any landmark win: the first opposition ward, the first opposition GRC, the first opposition win in a 4CF or the first time PAP loses its deposit, cannot be underestimated. The psychological effect of such a win can have far-reaching effect like the breaking of the 4-minute mile and the 10-sec 100 m sprint. See where these landmark records have taken us today.

No matter how long it took the opposition to win the first GRC, once the psychological barrier of a GRC win is broken, the next GRC will come very fast. So the same for a 4CF. Once a 4CF is won by an opposition member, another psychological barrier will be broken and the next such win will come easier and faster. For those bros who think that any MCF will just screw up the opposition, I will have to say, it depends on whether such a psychological barrier can be broken.

 

[wwabbit]

More interesting is the Town Council Act barrier.
The Town Council Act was set up back in 1988 as a barrier to entry for wannabe opposition candidates. Voters simply are not confident enough of the opposition candidates to run their town council.
It took a while, but it looks like the WP has broken through this barrier. Now looking forward to watching the water flow through the floodgate

 

[metalmickey]

Voters simply are not confident enough of the opposition candidates to run their town council.

I'm not on the ground so I don't know - is it really true that the tide has turned against the PAP to such a large extent? That you could actually start predicting a WP win? Guess we'll know the answer in a few hours.

By the way it's not "Voters simply are not confident enough of the opposition candidates to run their town council."

It's "Voters are simply not confident enough in the ability of the opposition candidates to run their town council."

 

[GOD IS MY DOG]

one thing is for sure...................any PAP SMC or GRC won with a 55% margin or less are very vulnerable.............


if not for Goh Choke Tong.................i think Marine Parade would have been won by NSP..............with more old folks kicking the bucket and if Goh is out of the picture...............NSP will win in 2016


potong pasir and joo chiat should go to opposition too...........

 

[cunnilaubu]

potong pasir and joo chiat should go to opposition too...........

That is provided they are still intact. I doubt they will.

 

[Fook Seng]

That is provided they are still intact. I doubt they will.

It is a double-edged blade. If they put each under a GRC, then both the GRCs can also be threatened.

 

[zhihau]

It is a double-edged blade.

my only concern is Chiam's health :(:(:(

 

[cunnilaubu]

It is a double-edged blade. If they put each under a GRC, then both the GRCs can also be threatened.

Agreed. Following the fall of AJ, I think gerrymandering will become an increasingly difficult task for the Elections Dept.

 

[metalmickey]

Agreed. Following the fall of AJ, I think gerrymandering will become an increasingly difficult task for the Elections Dept.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012

If you want to talk about gerrymandering you must learn from the masters.

% of the vote: Democrats 49.2% Republicans 48.0%.

# seats: Democrats 201 Republicans 234

Behold the awesome power of gerrymandering!

NB: big irony of history: GRCs make gerrymandering more difficult, not more easy.

 

[Charlie99]

1,000 apologies. We, in East Coast, screwed up the last time. We promise to do better in 2016.

Should not allege that those folks screwed up, but as long as they realize that their votes are very important in GE 2016 to help the opposition grow, then it will be good.

 

[wwabbit]

It is a double-edged blade. If they put each under a GRC, then both the GRCs can also be threatened.

Not just that. The practice of putting ministers to lead a GRC will also become a double edged blade.

 

[metalmickey]

Not just that. The practice of putting ministers to lead a GRC will also become a double edged blade.

If I were the PAP, I would remove the GRC system ASAP. GRC system is very hard to gerrymander because the districts are so large.

When you are at 60% the GRC system will favour you.

When you are at 50% only gerrymandering can help you get more than half the seats.

 

[6000kmApart]

If I were the PAP, I would remove the GRC system ASAP. GRC system is very hard to gerrymander because the districts are so large.

When you are at 60% the GRC system will favour you.

When you are at 50% only gerrymandering can help you get more than half the seats.

Removing GRCs might accelerate their downfall. the benefit can be seen in over 90% representation in parliament with only 60.1% of the votes in ge2011. All SMCs election should reflect a more balance representative ratio - about 60 to 40 to 2/3 majority...

 

[Fook Seng]

my only concern is Chiam's health :(:(:(

If Chiam says to another party: "I am too old, why don't you take over from here? But take in one of my candidates", it would be a different story altogether.

 

[Fook Seng]

Not just that. The practice of putting ministers to lead a GRC will also become a double edged blade.

Agreed. So is there a chance they will dismantle the GRC scheme?