Tuingkok has taught AMDK a good lesson in 2023..

[k1976]

Goldman’s Painful 2023 Lesson on China Forces Rethink of Emerging Markets​

• China no longer correlated with emerging markets, Trivedi says
• Proactive monetary policy left emerging markets more resilient

By Selcuk Gokoluk
December 26, 2023 at 8:00 AM GMT+8

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of global currency, rates and emerging-markets strategy says he’s learned two main lessons from one of the biggest — and most-common — bad calls of 2023: the bet on post-pandemic China’s reopening boom.

At the beginning of the year, Goldman was among the chorus of Wall Street banks pinning their hopes for a bright 2023 in part on recovery in China, with strategists including Kinger Lau predicting a 15% rally in the Chinese stock market. The expectation was that a bounce in the world’s second-largest economy would be the wave that lifted all boats, helping emerging markets globally to a banner year.

 

[k1976]

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/is-chinas-economy-facing-japanification.html


The latest data coming out of China suggests expectations have weakened materially over the past 18 months. Private investment, for example, stopped increasing after early 2022 and contracted outright in 2023. Likewise, consumer confidence plummeted during the Shanghai lockdown in April 2022 and has stayed depressed since. “The lack of coordinated and forceful policy responses has led many forecasters to downgrade their medium-term growth outlook for China,” Shan says.

There are steps China can take to counter that pessimism, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The government could emphasize the importance of economic development, accelerate the restructuring of troubled property developers and local government financing vehicles, and strengthen social safety nets to encourage long run household consumption. They also caution that commercial banks shouldn’t be made to shoulder most of the loan losses during property deleveraging to protect their ability to extend new credit, among other steps to provide greater policy certainty.

“Policy predictability and coordination are important for investment demand from the private sector,” Shan says. “The Chinese economy doesn’t have to follow Japan’s path in the 1990s.”

 

[k1976]

Our Best Lao Hero say...everything is good, kym?

 

[k1976]

https://apnews.com/article/china-economy-property-adb-791934f7f9b83de455e8f8aa7178b628

China’s economy is forecast to slow sharply in 2024, the World Bank says, calling recovery ‘fragile’​

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[COLOR=var(--color-primary-text)]1 of 11 | Workers sweep snow into a manhole near a decoration setup ahead of the Christmas festival at a mall in Beijing, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023. China’s economy will slow next year, with annual growth falling to 4.5% from 5.2% this year despite a recent recovery spurred by investments in factories and construction and in demand for services, The World Bank said in a report issued Thursday. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)

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[COLOR=var(--color-primary-text)]2 of 11 | Workers install decorations ahead of the Christmas festival at a mall in Beijing, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023. China’s economy will slow next year, with annual growth falling to 4.5% from 5.2% this year despite a recent recovery spurred by investments in factories and construction and in demand for services, The World Bank said in a report issued Thursday. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--color-primary-text)]3 of 11 | Workers install decorations ahead of the Christmas festival at a mall in Beijing, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023. China’s economy will slow next year, with annual growth falling to 4.5% from 5.2% this year despite a recent recovery spurred by investments in factories and construction and in demand for services, The World Bank said in a report issued Thursday. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)[/COLOR]

[COLOR=var(--color-primary-text)]4 of 11 | Workers sweep snow near a decorations setup ahead of the Christmas festival at a mall in Beijing, Thursday, Dec. 14, 2023. China’s economy will slow next year, with annual growth falling to 4.5% from 5.2% this year despite a recent recovery spurred by investments in factories and construction and in demand for services, The World Bank said in a report issued Thursday. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
5 of 11 | Workers push trolleys passing by under construction retail shop baring a dragon shaped 2024, the Year of the Dragon on the Chinese calendar, in Shanghai, China on Nov. 25, 2023. Chinese leaders have wrapped up a two-day annual meeting to set economic priorities for the coming year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023 without giving details of what was decided. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
6 of 11 | A man adjusts his bag of purchased goods as visitors tour at a Nanjing pedestrian shopping street in Shanghai, China on Nov. 25, 2023. Chinese leaders have wrapped up a two-day annual meeting to set economic priorities for the coming year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023 without giving details of what was decided. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
7 of 11 | A worker installs light bulbs decoration on snow covered trees along a street for the upcoming Christmas festival and year-end season in Beijing, Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023. Chinese leaders have wrapped up a two-day annual meeting to set economic priorities for the coming year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday without giving details of what was decided. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
8 of 11 | A worker unloading food products as a woman checking the stock lists at a loading area outside a shopping mall in Beijing, Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023. Chinese leaders have wrapped up a two-day annual meeting to set economic priorities for the coming year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday without giving details of what was decided. (AP Photo/Andy Wong)
9 of 11 | Residents wearing masks past by a sculpture outside a mall in Beijing, Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023. Chinese leaders have wrapped up a two-day annual meeting to set economic priorities for the coming year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday Dec. 12, 2023 without giving details of what was decided. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
10 of 11 | A delivery man collects packages as shoppers visit a popular mall district in Beijing, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. Chinese leaders have wrapped up a two-day annual meeting to set economic priorities for the coming year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday Dec. 12, 2023 without giving details of what was decided. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
11 of 11 | Residents past near an office and retail district with a screen showing the Chinese national flag in Beijing, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. Chinese leaders have wrapped up a two-day annual meeting to set economic priorities for the coming year, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Tuesday Dec. 12, 2023 without giving details of what was decided. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)[/COLOR]

Updated 12:50 PM GMT+8, December 15, 2023

HONG KONG (AP) — China’s economy grew at a 5.2% pace in the first three quarters of the year and showed signs of improvement in November, with factory output and retail sales rising, the government said Friday.

But investments in property sank 9.4%, the National Bureau of Statistics said, indicating the real estate sector has yet to recover from a crisis that has led dozens of developers to default on hundreds of billions of dollars in debts.

The world’s second-largest economy is still contending from the setbacks of the COVID-19 pandemic, among other shocks, dogged by weakness in the property sector and in global demand for China’s exports, high debt levels and wavering consumer confidence.

The 10.1% jump in retail sales in November from a year earlier, up from a 7.6% jump in October, showed a glimmer of hope given that sluggish consumer spending has been a key factor hindering a stronger recovery.

 

[laksaboy]

Things when get fun when the CCP regime no longer has enough money to pay its military and police. We are halfway there now.

 

[k1976]

Things when get fun when the CCP regime no longer has enough money to pay its military and police. We are halfway there now.

There are still many 5 cents mah

 

[k1976]

Things when get fun when the CCP regime no longer has enough money to pay its military and police. We are halfway there now.

No worries, Tiongkok has many small Belt Road Serfs to depend upon