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UK Lawyers for Israel says use of inaccurate data, inconsistent methodology, potential bias led to false assertions that were utilized by ICC when charging Netanyahu with war crimes
Volunteers prepare food for displaced Palestinians in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 19, 2024. (AFP)
A review conducted by the UK Lawyers for Israel (UKLFI) organization into allegations by international famine review bodies that famine and severe malnutrition were widespread and prevalent in Gaza during the war between Israel and Hamas has found that famine did not break out in the territory according to the figures of the very organizations making the claims.
The report noted severe problems with the reports these organizations issued, due to what it said was their use of “incomplete or inaccurate data,” the inconsistent application of methodological standards, failure to take into account new data, and “potential bias” in how it interpreted and presented the information it had.
These groups data were used as evidence by the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court prosecutor in legal proceedings they initiated against Israel, and have created severe legal problems for the State of Israel.
From almost the very beginning of the war, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), connected to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) established by USAID, began issuing periodic reports on the food security situation in Gaza, asserting in early and late 2024 that famine was either imminent or had already taken hold in parts of the territory.
Israeli academics and public health officials began questioning the accuracy and reliability of these reports from May 2024, highlighting how the estimates made by these organizations appeared to ignore key information about aid supply and use data from questionable sources.
UKLFI’s review of the issue, published last week and which highlighted these criticisms, found that there was no famine in Gaza during the war, as defined by IPC standards, and that even levels of acute malnutrition were only marginally higher than pre-war figures.
International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan (center) announces that he has requested arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Muhammad Deif and Ismail Haniyeh, May 20, 2024. (Courtesy, International Criminal Court)
These errors resulted from overlooking significant sources of food supply, IPC misclassifying its own data, and using an incorrect baseline figure for pre-war acute malnutrition which made it appear that there had been a sharp increase in the phenomenon during the war, UKLFI’s study stated.
Other problems leading to false IPC and FEWS NET determinations about famine and malnutrition in Gaza included comparing different metrics for those phenomena and overestimating the population of northern Gaza, where predictions of famine were especially grave due to an erroneous understanding of the amount of food aid available per person there.
The allegations of famine formed a central part of the legal processes against Israel’s conduct of the war against Hamas in both the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court in The Hague. The ICC has charged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant with war crimes and crimes against humanity for allegedly using starvation as a method of war against the Palestinians, and issued warrants for their arrest.
UKLFI said in its report that future assessments of food security “should strive for greater accuracy and objectivity to ensure that international responses are proportionate and based on factual realities.”
In the wake of Hamas’s October 7 invasion and massacres, Israel embarked on a massive military campaign against Gaza and initially limited the amount of aid that went into the territory. But two weeks after the beginning of the war, aid began entering the strip.
A series of problematic reports
Two of the most problematic reports regarding alleged famine were issued in March 2024 and November 2024 by the IPC’s Famine Review Committee (FRC).
The FRC’s March report asserted that famine was “was projected and imminent,” in particular in northern Gaza, and that 677,000 people in the Gaza Strip were already in the Phase 5 Catastrophe level of its food insecurity scale.
If this were correct, it would have meant that at least 135 people were dying of starvation every day in March 2024.
