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The Other Side Of China's 8% GDP "Growth": Ghost Cities

GoFlyKiteNow

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The Other Side Of China's 8% GDP "Growth": Ghost Cities
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/12/2009 16:41 -0500

All those who have spent late hours playing SimCity 3000 and never understood why the damn thing would never get any people to move into it, will derive a deranged pleasure from the following clip.

In China, where 8% GDP is guaranteed and has to be "goal seeked" by any and every increasingly more deranged economic project, the authorities have taken the game of SimCity and applied it to real life. Alas, they started out on "difficult" level.

Ordos is a hyper modern city, full of brand new glass walled residential and commercial buildings, yet devoid of inhabitants.

In its attempt to present a "growing" economy, and to "invest" its $585 billion stimulus into anything and everything, courtesy of comparable idiocy on the other side of the Pacific, China's communist party is now ruling over ghost towns.

One wonders just how many such "efficient" projects sustain China's magical 8% growth.


China's Empty Cities.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk&feature=player_embedded

.
 
What are our scholars' KPI? GDP.

Hahahahahahhahaahahaha
 
hmm, that one factor that's always on the back off my mind.

but when i meet some of the local guys there. they mentioned that China is very big. many people. in time, those mega housing projects, commerical building will be filled up.

personally see it for myself. in 2004. stood on an empty land. lots of construction, building etc. nobody. fast forward 3-5 years. place is crowded, buzzing with activities. 2, 3 lane roads feeding cars, lorries, buses, in and out of that location.

question though, would these sort of super growth repeat itself?
 
I have no doubt that some of the stimulus was wasted. However I doubt if these empty cities could account for more than half a percent of GDP growth. So you still have 8.5% growth.

In 3rd world countries, it is often better to start from scratch and build a brand new city then to try and rebuild on old towns with poor sewer and plumbing. Unlike US, some of these cities might be hundreds of years old and faced with crumbling infra.

In Malaysia it is like that too. Entire towns were built first then the highway and power grids are connected before people move in Subang Jaya was such a case. Was then when project was completed and it took a few years before town came alive. Should have bought a house then. They were offered for $80K but today they are going for $400K.

These new towns are a distance away from the old towns so it takes awhile for the power grid, sewers, water to be connected. Advantage of such development is that they start with fresh sheet of paper and thus can plan the cities with wider roads, drainage (does not flood when it rains), sewer treatment (no open sewers), etc.



The Other Side Of China's 8% GDP "Growth": Ghost Cities
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/12/2009 16:41 -0500

All those who have spent late hours playing SimCity 3000 and never understood why the damn thing would never get any people to move into it, will derive a deranged pleasure from the following clip.

In China, where 8% GDP is guaranteed and has to be "goal seeked" by any and every increasingly more deranged economic project, the authorities have taken the game of SimCity and applied it to real life. Alas, they started out on "difficult" level.

Ordos is a hyper modern city, full of brand new glass walled residential and commercial buildings, yet devoid of inhabitants.

In its attempt to present a "growing" economy, and to "invest" its $585 billion stimulus into anything and everything, courtesy of comparable idiocy on the other side of the Pacific, China's communist party is now ruling over ghost towns.

One wonders just how many such "efficient" projects sustain China's magical 8% growth.


China's Empty Cities.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk&feature=player_embedded

.
 
GFK - talking about cleantech looks like Chinese are building world's largest solar power plant in this city Ordos. Plans are for a 2 gigawatt solar project.

Who knows, we might see this city totally powered by solar energy.


Tuesday, November 17, 2009
First Solar takes another step in Ordos City project
Phoenix Business Journal - by Patrick O'Grady

First Solar Inc. has a framework agreement in place for its massive 2-gigawatt solar project planned in Ordos City, China.

The agreement spells out more project details between Tempe-based First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) and China’s National Energy Administration.

The project is expected to start construction on the 30-megawatt first phase by June 1. Two committees will be established by Ordos City and First Solar to monitor and build the project.

The announcement coincided with a visit by President Barack Obama to China this week.

Once the first phase is completed, construction will continue in increasingly larger phases: 100 megawatts for the second phase, 870 megawatts for the third and 1 gigawatt for the fourth.

The second and third phases are slated to be completed by 2014, with the fourth scheduled for 2019. It is the largest photovoltaic power system planned in the world.
 
It now makes sense why they build this city. It is for China's cleantech future in solar energy. They are planning to have thin film pv supply chain in Ordos. Once they have a supply chain it would be tough for others to compete. And they can draw in the supply chain because the solar power plant is the largest in the world and would consume lots of PVs.

The giant solar power plant would allows for lots of R&D.

It makes sense for them to locate plant in desert but they need to build the new city for the scientists, engineers and technicians that will be working in the power plant, doing research, and designing the next gen pvs. This type of talent would require a new city with modern housing.

I am impressed. So there is a reason for building such a city!

deal calls for First Solar to provide panels, engineering and construction for the facility.

First Solar also will help develop the thin film photovoltaic supply chain in China, and could look at manufacturing sites in or around the city.

Ordos officials will set up 65 square kilometers of land for the project and work with First Solar in construction and financing.




First Solar to start largest solar power plant in Ordos, China
Phoenix Business Journal - by Patrick O'Grady
Chairman Wu Bangguo of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress in China signs solar panel during Monday's visit to First Solar.
View Larger

First Solar Inc. and Ordos City, China, signed an agreement to build what will be a 2-gigawatt solar installation in the Inner Mongolia city.

The deal, announced Tuesday morning, calls for the project to start as a 30-megawatt demonstration unit with construction beginning in June 2010 and additional phases brought online in 2014 and 2019.

Tempe-based First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) signed the memorandum of understanding Monday while Chinese officials were visiting the company’s offices. The deal calls for First Solar to provide panels, engineering and construction for the facility.

First Solar also will help develop the thin film photovoltaic supply chain in China, and could look at manufacturing sites in or around the city.

Ordos officials will set up 65 square kilometers of land for the project and work with First Solar in construction and financing.

“This major commitment to solar power is a direct result of the progressive energy policies being adopted in China to create a sustainable, long-term market for solar and a low carbon future for China,” First Solar CEO Mike Ahearn said in a statement. “We’re proud to be announcing this precedent-setting project today. It represents an encouraging step forward toward the mass-scale deployment of solar power worldwide to help mitigate climate change concerns.”

First Solar will operate the plant under China’s feed-in tariff, which guarantees prices paid for renewable power.

“We are very pleased to be partnering with one of the solar industry’s global technology leaders in a project of such significance to Ordos’s low carbon future,” said Cao Zhichen, vice mayor of Ordos. “Discussions with First Solar about building a factory in China demonstrate to investors in China that they can confidently invest in the most advanced technologies available.”

Final details of the deal are yet to be worked out, officials said.

A contingent of Chinese officials visited First Solar on Monday.
 
Here is another article from NYT about Ordos. Looks like it is not only solar but wind power and biomass. Ordos is cleantech central so the gleaming new city now makes sense. World class researchers will now make a beeline to Ordos (as such they need modern housing) to help develop cleantech.

A chunk of the stimulus is going into funding these projects. The PV plant itself might run $6B! If these Chinese play it right they could very well leapfrog the developed nations in cleantech!

Goflykite isn't this exciting. Cleantech is up and running. And they plan to achieve 2 gigawatt in 2019 - nine years away only. I am sure there is a lot to learn.


September 9, 2009
U.S. Company and China Plan Solar Project
By TODD WOODY

Chinese government officials signed an agreement on Tuesday with First Solar, an American solar developer, for a 2,000-megawatt photovoltaic farm to be built in the Mongolian desert.

Set for completion in 2019, the First Solar project represents the world’s biggest photovoltaic power plant project to date, and is part of an 11,950-megawatt renewable-energy park planned for Ordos City in Inner Mongolia.

The memorandum of understanding between Chinese officials and First Solar, the world’s largest photovoltaic cell manufacturer, would open a potentially vast solar market in China and follows the Chinese government’s recent moves to accelerate development of renewable energy.

When completed, the Ordos solar farm would generate enough electricity to power about three million Chinese homes, according to First Solar.

First Solar, based in Tempe, Ariz., is also likely to build a factory in China to make thin-film solar panels, said Mike Ahearn, the company’s chief executive. “It is significant that a non-Chinese company can land something like this in China,” Mr. Ahearn said in an interview.

Most proposed large-scale solar projects use solar thermal technology, which deploys mirrors to heat a liquid to create steam that drives an electricity-generating turbine. But as photovoltaic technology becomes more cost-competitive, utilities are turning to companies like First Solar for big solar power farms. Such projects generally have fewer environmental impacts and can be brought online faster than solar thermal plants.

`
Financial terms of the agreement have yet to be reached and will depend on China completing a feed-in tariff that pays a premium for electricity generated by renewable energy projects. First Solar said the 2,000-megawatt power plant would cost $5 billion to $6 billion if built in the United States today, but it said the cost to build such a project in China would probably be lower.

The Ordos agreement is the latest large-scale solar farm deal that First Solar has signed in recent months as it expands its business from manufacturing solar modules to building power plants. The company also has agreed to supply two California utilities with 1,100 megawatts of electricity from three big solar farms.

“Discussions with First Solar about building a factory in China demonstrate to investors in China that they can confidently invest in the most advanced technologies available,” Cao Zhichen, vice mayor of Ordos Municipal Government, said in a statement.

Until the announcement of the Ordos project, the largest single photovoltaic power plant was the 550-megawatt Topaz solar farm to be built by First Solar in California. As solar panel prices continue to fall and projects like Ordos bring further economies of scale, photovoltaic farms are expected to become more competitive with solar thermal power plants.

China is home to a blossoming solar industry thanks to generous government support. But Chinese companies like Suntech, the world’s third-largest solar module maker, export most of their products.

First Solar’s cadmium telluride solar cells are less efficient at converting sunlight into electricity than standard crystalline silicon cells made by companies like Suntech but they can be manufactured at a significantly lower cost.

“Given that China has built up homegrown companies like Suntech, it’s quite significant that they’re importing a U.S. world leader to the marketplace,” said Nathaniel Bullard, a solar analyst at New Energy Finance, a London market research firm. “This is going to help ensure technological leadership and not just manufacturing leadership.”

Suntech formed a venture last year to build solar power plants in the United States and has announced plans to open a factory in the Southwest.

A high-ranking Chinese official, Wu Bangguo, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China, attended the signing of the First Solar agreement in Arizona on Tuesday. The memorandum of understanding is just the first step in what is likely to be a long and complicated process to build such a gargantuan solar power plant in a country with little experience in constructing such projects.

“The ability to predict solar energy yields off these systems to make accurate financial predictions isn’t in place yet in China,” Mr. Ahearn said.

Plans for the Ordos renewable energy park call for wind farms to generate 6,950 megawatts, photovoltaic power plants to provide 3,900 megawatts and solar thermal farms to supply 720 megawatts. Biomass operations, fueled by organic materials like wood chips and straw, will contribute 310 megawatts; 70 megawatts will be available from hydro storage, a load-balancing technology that uses off-peak power to pump water to a high reservoir from which it can be released to turn turbines at peak demand periods.

First Solar will have to establish a supply chain to provide power inverters and other hardware needed for its part of the project as well as train Chinese contractors how to build and operate solar farms.
Another hurdle is that China must upgrade its transmission system to connect the solar power plant to the grid.

Mr. Ahearn said it was probable that a Chinese utility would ultimately own and run the 16,000-acre solar power plant.

The agreement calls for ground to be broken on the first 30-megawatt phase of the project by June 1, 2010, followed by 100-megawatt and 870-megawatt additions to be completed by the end of 2014. A final 1,000-megawatt phase is scheduled to go online by Dec. 31, 2019.

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Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company
 
Plenty of AlJazeera fans around here?

ALLAH AKBAR!! ALLAH AKBAR!! :D

looks like this...

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china economic miracle is just a miracle. it will collapse like a pack of cards soon.
just wait and see.
 
There is always that possibility.

But so far Beijing seems to be very pragmatic. 2 years ago everyone was complaining about air quality during Beijing Olympics and Beijing did a 180 degree and are now fully embracing cleantech and in the process they might even overtake the West in implement such technologies.

As in any stimulus plan there is bound to be excesses.


china economic miracle is just a miracle. it will collapse like a pack of cards soon.
just wait and see.
 
That's the advantage of 21st century China to learn from others' follies
 
hmm, that one factor that's always on the back off my mind.

but when i meet some of the local guys there. they mentioned that China is very big. many people. in time, those mega housing projects, commerical building will be filled up.

personally see it for myself. in 2004. stood on an empty land. lots of construction, building etc. nobody. fast forward 3-5 years. place is crowded, buzzing with activities. 2, 3 lane roads feeding cars, lorries, buses, in and out of that location.

question though, would these sort of super growth repeat itself?

most of those skyscrapers in shanghai have been empty for 10+ years but they look nice
 
most of those skyscrapers in shanghai have been empty for 10+ years but they look nice

Most missed the latent point of my post.

China has more than 400 million BPL ( Below poverty line )
Yet, the stimulus package that was hurriedly spent was
again circulating within the upper few of the population.
It was not inclusive of the whole country.

In a desperate attempt to keep the GDP figures from shrinking
which could trigger a melt down, the Communist party doyens
splurged the savings funds in all directions towards takers and
vested interests. That culminated in a mess of "developmental"
work and mindless spending, by party elements and their cohorts.

Result - Ghost cities, huge roads to nowhere, massive stadiums,.
That was not all. Down the line, party oficials and bureaucrats
bought cars, consumer products by the dozen and stored them
in warehouses. All to increase consumption and thus the GDP.

The vast majority of the people did not benefit from this stimulus.
The countless factories that remain closed still remain closed.
The millions made jobless are still jobless.

Now the question. Since all the consumer articles are now stored
in huge quantities in warehouses, to satisfy all consumer demand,
what happens next year.?

How will the party take care of GDP figures next year.?

This time around, the statistics and economic figures that come out
of China will be scrutinized deeply for their correctness.
And if the world sees something wrong, then there will be trouble for China.
From the housing bubble to the overblown stock markets.

That is the danger for 2010.


 
i guess they are banking on the med level income population to consume. question is, would they be able to bump up consumption as fast as the stocks are piling up?

btw, where did you get your 400m bpl figures?
 
i guess they are banking on the med level income population to consume. question is, would they be able to bump up consumption as fast as the stocks are piling up?

btw, where did you get your 400m bpl figures?

The figure 400 million plus was mentioned in a WHO report sometime ago.
The actual figure could be much more - because local communist party officials have a chronic desire to fudge figures to enhance their performance
report cards.
 
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