The foot steps of 2012 getting nearer and stronger

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http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20100416/tts-weather-us-world-temperature-972e412.html


Global temperatures hit 'hottest March on record'
AFP
AFP - Friday, April 16




WASHINGTON (AFP) - – Global temperatures fueled by El Nino seasonal warming last month chalked up the hottest March on record, US weather monitors reported.

"Warmer-than-normal conditions dominated the globe, especially in northern Africa, South Asia and Canada," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a statement on Thursday.

Combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for March 2010 was the warmest on record at 13.5 degrees Celsius (56.3 degrees Fahrenheit), which is 0.77 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average of 12.7 C, it said.

Average ocean temperatures were the hottest for any March since record-keeping began in 1880, while the global land surface was the fourth warmest for any March on record, NOAA said, citing analysis from the National Climate Data Center.

It added that the January-March period was the planet's fourth warmest on record.

The US agency cited two Asian examples of high March mercury: Tibet had its second warmest March since records began in 1951, it said citing the Beijing Climate Center, while Delhi, India had its own second warmest March since 1901 record-keeping, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Cooler-than-normal temperatures prevailed in some locations, however, including Mongolia, eastern Russia, northern and western Europe, northern Australia, western Alaska and the southeastern United States, NOAA said.

The agency also pointed to Arctic sea ice as a temperature indicator, and said this was the 17th consecutive March in which Arctic sea ice coverage was below average.

Last month's average coverage of 15.1 million square kilometers (5.8 million square miles) was 4.1 percent below the 1979-2000 average, the agency said.

NOAA stressed that while El Nino, the weather anomaly which wreaks havoc on normal weather patterns from the western seaboard of Latin America to east Africa, weakened to a moderate strength in March, "it contributed significantly to the warmth in the tropical belt and the overall ocean temperature."

El Nino was expected to maintain its influence in the northern hemisphere "at least through the spring," NOAA said.

The record March temperatures are likely to be seen as evidence backing the case of those who believe climate change is an urgent crisis which must be addressed at the global level.

The United Nations and several countries have called for a legally-binding agreement on climate change, but at a summit in Copenhagen in December states failed to agree on a deadline to reduce carbon emissions that

 

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http://blog.gmw.cn/u/466/archives/2010/138286.html

地震部门专家：自04年印尼海啸起全球进入地震活跃期
[ 2010/4/15 7:17:00 | By: 杨学祥 ]

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地震部门专家：自04年印尼海啸起全球进入地震活跃期

杨学祥



近十年研究发现，El Nino和La Nina的发生与更大时间尺度的“太平洋十年涛动”（Pacific Decadal Oscillation，缩写为PDO）密切相关[1-2]。PDO是近年来揭示的一种年代际时间尺度上的气候变率强信号，它是叠加在长期气候趋势变化上的一种扰动，直接造成太平洋及其周边地区气候的年代际变化，影响ENSO事件的频率和强度。1976-1977年北太平洋出现了一次显著的气候年代际突变现象，直到上世纪八十年代末，人们才开始对引起这种现象原因予以关注[3-4]。



“拉马德雷”（Lamadre ）是一种高空气压流，在气象学和海洋学上被称为“太平洋十年涛动”（PDO），其“暖位相”和“冷位相”两种形式分别交替在太平洋上空出现，每种现象持续近二十年至三十年。近一个世纪以来，Lamadre 已经出现了两个完整的周期。第一周期的“冷位相”发生在1890年—1924年，而“暖位相”发生在1925年—1945年；第二周期的“冷位相”发生在1946年—1976年，而“暖位相”发生在1977年—1999年[2]。2000年进入第三周期的“冷位相”。Lamadre是西班牙语“母亲”的意思，即她是El Nino和La Nina的母亲。其形成原因尚待研究。为叙述简便，文中“太平洋十年涛动”也用“拉马德雷”表达。



地震数据统计表明，1889年以来，全球大于等于8.5级的地震共21次，在1889-1924年发生6次（国外资料1900-1924年2次），在1925-1945年发生1次（1次），在1946-1977年发生11次（7次），在1978-2003年发生0次（0次），在2004-2007年已发生3次。规律表明，拉马德雷冷位相时期及其边界是全球强震的集中爆发时期。2000年进入了拉马德雷冷位相时期，2000-2035年是全球强震爆发时期。1952年、1957年、1960年、1964年4场9级以上特大地震就发生在1947-1976年拉马德雷冷位相时期前17年，2000年进入拉马德雷冷位相，2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸发生，特大强震可能发生在第六次最强和较强潮汐重复时期（2010年，2014年，2018年，2022年）。这一预测符合最强和较强潮汐四年变化规律[5-13]。



2010年2月27日智利发生8.8级地震，这是20世纪以来发生的第五强地震，验证了我们关于2010年发生特大地震的预测。2001年发生昆仑山以西8.1级地震，2008年5月12日发生汶川地震，2008年新疆于田发生7.3级地震，2010年04月14日青海省玉树藏族自治州玉树县发生7.1级地震，也验证了我国进入地震活跃期的预测[5-13]。



我们在2010年4月11日指出，1947-1976年拉马德雷冷位相时期我国7级以上地震发生50次，平均每年1.73次，1977-1999年拉马德雷暖位相时期我国7级以上地震发生12次，平均每年0.55次。拉马德雷冷位相时期我国7级以上地震是拉马德雷暖位相的3倍以上。2000-2035年拉马德雷冷位相时期我国7级以上地震又进入新的活跃期，2001年昆仑山口8级地震和2008年四川汶川8级地震是两个明确的强震频发的信号。2000-2035年不仅是全球强震爆发时期，也是中国7级以上地震频发时期。从1947-1976年拉马德雷冷位相时期我国7级以上地震发生情况来看，前10年发生20次（包括两次8级以上地震），后10年发生20次，中间10年发生10次，前后10年的地震相对频发值得关注[14]。



我们在2010年4月14日6点零8分指出，1947年至1999年中国7级以上地震数据统计结果表明，1-5月和7-8月地震次数较多，6月和9-12月地震次数较少，1月和7月地震次数达到最大值。上半年地震次数为33次，下半年为27次，上半年多6次，地震活动较强烈[15]。



北京时间2010年04月14日07时49分许，青海省玉树藏族自治州玉树县(北纬33.1，东经96.7)发生7.1级地震，震源深度33千米。在主震7.1级地震后，台网中心又监测到数十次的余震，最高余震震级达到6.3级。中国地震台网中心预报处主任刘杰表示，玉树地震与汶川地震有很大关联，自04年印尼海啸起，全球进入地震活跃期[16]。



针对这次地震，中国地震台网中心研究员孙士?接受了人民网记者的专访。他分析，从地质构造上看，玉树历史上曾多次发生地震。玉树地处青藏高原块体的中部，该板块的地质活动较为强烈，中强度以上的地震在历史上持续不断，因此玉树地震不是一个偶然的现象。台湾、青海今天相继地震，虽然属于不同板块，但是反应了全球地震活动进入高活跃期。



　　孙士?介绍，从2009年7月15日至今的9个月以来，全球发生7级以上地震共24次，平均每月2.6次；相比20世纪百年每年19次，每月1.6次的平均记录高出不少。而7.7级以上地震的百年平均值是每年两次，而最近9个月内全球则发生了6次。



　　孙士?认为，地球进入高活跃期时段，对于是否后期会出现更强烈(8级或8.5级以上)的地震，地震科研人员需要密切关注[17]。



参考文献

 

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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36511690/ns/technology_and_science-science/

Is Earth shaking more?
The recent series of earthquakes could just be part of the natural cycle

By Jeanna Bryner
updated 2:02 p.m. ET April 14, 2010

As the numbers of buried or dead continue to climb from today's 6.9-magnitude earthquake in China, an event so close on the heels of the devastating Chile and Haiti earthquakes, you might wonder if Earth is shaking more lately. Perhaps, scientists say, but not unusually so.

Seismic activity may be higher in recent years than the long-term average, but it's still not out of the normal range, the experts contend.

"Relative to the 20-year period from the mid-1970's to the mid 1990's, the Earth has been more active over the past 15 or so years," said Stephen S. Gao, a geophysicist at Missouri University of Science & Technology. "We still do not know the reason for this yet. Could simply be the natural temporal variation of the stress field in the Earth's lithosphere." (The lithosphere is the outer solid part of the Earth.)


News of the Yushu earthquake in China, which followed large temblors in the United States and Mexico, Haiti, Chile and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan — all in this young year alone — make it seem Earth is becoming ever more active. Much of this has to do with perspective, however.

"From our human perspective with our relatively short and incomplete memories and better and better communications around the world, we hear about more earthquakes and it seems like they are more frequent," said J. Ramón Arrowsmith, a geologist at Arizona State University. "But this is probably not any indication of a global change in earthquake rate of significance."

Expect more
As the human population skyrockets and we move into more hazardous regions, we're going to hear more about the events that do occur, Arrowsmith said.


A dozen killer earthquakes
Thousands rattle the Earth daily — but only a few cause utter devastation.
And when large earthquakes strike in populated regions, news travels fast.

"What happens is when a lot of people get killed there's a lot of reporting of it, and if an equally big event occurs somewhere out in the middle of nowhere it doesn’t attract the attention," said G. Randy Keller, professor of geophysics at the University of Oklahoma.

Even rare events are normal.

"The [8.8-magnitude] earthquake down in Chile, that's an unusual event, those don't happen too often," Keller said. Even so, seismologists would expect such an event at some point. "It sounds cold-blooded but it's an earthquake that occurred in a place that you'd expect it to sooner or later."

In fact, both the Ryukyu and Chilean quakes occurred within the Ring of Fire, which is a zone surrounding the Pacific Ocean where the Pacific tectonic plate and other plates dive beneath other slabs of the Earth. About 90 percent of the world's earthquakes occur along this arc. (The next most seismic region, where just 5 to 6 percent of temblors occur, is the Alpide belt, which extends from the Mediterranean region eastward.)

When abnormal is normal
Or the series of earthquakes could just be part of the natural cycle for what is arguably a dynamic planet.

"If you look at it globally the occurrence of earthquakes is confined to zones we already know have earthquakes but it's a largely random process and so sometimes it's a little quieter than normal and sometimes it's a little more active than normal. But it doesn't mean anything, because on a global basis these things aren't connected," Keller said.

He added, "We're having a few more than the average, but nothing particularly remarkable. This was a magnitude 6.9 earthquake so on the bigger scheme of things it's not that big."

China on the whole has suffered staggering numbers of lives lost due to earthquakes, particularly in a region far to the east of the current quake, Keller noted. That's where he and his colleagues have set up seismic recorders to figure out why that area is prone to such large temblors. For instance, in 1556 an 8.0-magnitude quake that struck Shensi, China, killed an estimated 830,000 people.

And in 1976, a 7.5-magnitude quake in Tangshan, China, killed 255,000. These areas are some 500 to 1,000 miles to the east of the current earthquake.

China quake not unexpected
What is different about the earthquake that struck the area of Yushu in Qinghai Province, China, early morning local time is that it occurred in the middle of one of Earth's tectonic plates, instead of at the junction between them as many earthquakes do. The China earthquake occurred along a fault along the northeastern part of the plateau, though scientists have yet to pinpoint that fault.

"It's in the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, which is a very active tectonic feature," Keller said.

The Tibetan Plateau experiences continued uplift from the processes that originally created it, and is also being squeezed by other forces, resulting in numerous faults in the area.

"Because of this big stress that's a result of India plowing into Asia, there's been a whole series of these big faults that are from older events," Keller said, adding that the faults can get reactivated and cause earthquakes like the recent one. These "old faults" are on the order of some 100 million years old.

"It's like a slow bus piling into a building and the driver still has his foot on the gas and it's just a continuing process," Keller said today in a telephone interview.

 

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There had been non-stop warming and quake and tsunami and volcanic explosions.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8624929.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8624748.stm


Hundreds flee flood in Iceland volcano zone
Flooded coast road near volcano, 14 Apr 10
Flooding has cut the coast road and threatens isolated farms

Fresh flooding has hit areas around an erupting volcano in Iceland, prompting the second evacuation of local people in 48 hours.

About 700 people were evacuated to the small town of Hvolsvollur from isolated rural homes near the volcano, which is under the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier.

Flooding has cut the coastal road from the area to the capital Reykjavik, to the north-west.

A plume of ash has spread across northern Europe from the volcano.

Icelandic media report that the eruption is continuing, but there have been no earth tremors since Thursday evening.
Map

The level of the glacial Markarfljot river - swollen with ice and m&d - has risen, threatening a bridge.

A local resident, Gina Christie, told the BBC that diggers had been used to break up the coastal road in places to let flood waters surge through and prevent the bridge from being swept away.

"The damage to farms and the main ring road is very extensive," she said.

State television told people in the area to leave their homes urgently on Thursday when it was clear that more of the glacier was breaking up.

Volcanic ash has fallen in parts of eastern Iceland and there are fears that ash could spread to Reykjavik if the wind direction changes.

Local people have been told to wear masks if the ash falls, Hannah Andrews, a dairy farmer near the volcano, told the BBC's Europe Today programme. She said she had moved her cows indoors.

According to Ms Christie, the risk is that livestock "breathe in the ash and it settles in their lungs and after a while they just cannot breathe, and die".

There are fears of an even bigger eruption if the vulcanism sets off the nearby Katla volcano, which is also covered in ice.

Gunnar Gestur Geirmundsson, a lorry driver at the capital's Keflavik airport, said US-bound jets were still leaving Iceland, but flights to the UK had been cancelled. "We are working at a reduced capacity," he told the BBC.

Air traffic has been severely disrupted across northern Europe by the volcanic ash.

Airspace has been closed or flights cancelled in countries including the UK, the Republic of Ireland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and France.

 

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http://tw.news.yahoo.com/article/url/d/a/100415/78/23wt8.html


連環震、水旱災 地球怪怪的
自由 更新日期:"2010/04/15 04:11"

專家反對「震群效應」說法

〔記者林嘉琪、國際新聞中心／綜合報導〕環太平洋地震不斷，雖然專家分析這些地震分屬不同的板塊，不認為有「震群效應」，但從去年開始，乾旱、洪水及強震等天然災害紛紛襲擊全球，學者指，國外科學家確實都在關注「地球轉動速度與全球板塊活動變化，並可能造成地震頻傳的相關性」。

曾經在國際期刊Nature發表「颱風引發慢地震」的中研院學者劉啟清說，「大氣現象會影響地殼變動」，亦即「當水、風和溫度起伏大，可能因此釋放地殼能量」，最根本的原因其實與暖化現象脫離不了關係。

學者認為天災與暖化有關

劉啟清說，一九八○年代以前地球轉速較快，到了一九九○年逐漸變慢，猜測是因為暖化造成北極融冰流向赤道，物質遠離地球轉軸，造成地球慢轉；但是近二到三年，地球轉動呈現加速現象，以智利及印尼強震為例，這兩起強震成因都是板塊隱沒所造成，當板塊向下擠壓，往地震轉軸靠近，地球轉速變快。

劉啟清說，目前只知大氣和地殼兩者會相互影響，還無法確知是誰能操控誰。

中研院環境變遷研究中心主任劉紹臣認為，人類對於颱風、旱災和洪水有預警能力，避免暖化造成的連鎖反應是可以努力的，雖然地震變數多，但也能加強建物耐震度並提升地震教育。

近期全球各地頻傳地牛翻身，包括美洲地區的智利、海地、墨西哥、美國，亞洲區域的台灣、印尼、日本及中國等地先後傳出強震，有國外學者以「震群效應」形容全球接連發生的強震，但是氣象局地震測報中心主任郭鎧紋說：「一百位地震專家裡，會有九十九．九九位專家反對震群說法。」

中研院研究員余水倍認為，環太平洋區域本來就是地震好發區域，科學研究上的確證實「一個地震會誘發其它地震」，稱為「應力轉移」，但應力轉移有一定距離限制，不會如同「震群」理論指出，從加勒比海、日本、智利又到台灣等大範圍地接連發生。

另據中國地震局原首席預報員孫士鋐分析，最近兩年全球地震活動頻率較高，去年七月迄今九個月中，全球發生規模七以上地震共二十四次，平均每月達二．六次。

專家研究青海玉樹縣規模七．一地震與四川汶川大地震有關聯，中國近期仍有發生規模六地震的可能性。

中國地震台網中心預報部主任劉傑指出，汶川地震後的二○○八年，中國共發生九十九次規模五以上地震；去年相對平靜，全年只發生兩次規模六以上地震。今年明顯增強。