The Complicated Equation In Gaza - Playing With Peoples' Lives
1. Hamas Fireworks In Gaza
The 'fireworks' have started again in Gaza. The last major outbreak of 'shooting fireworks rockets' from Gaza into Israel took place seven years ago in 2014. It must be noted that both then and now the rockets are only shot from Gaza.
The West Bank Palestinians do not seem to be shooting rockets. The question is why? Why does Gaza shoot rockets and the West Bank does not? They are both Palestinians.
The West Bank is under the control of Mahmud Abbas and the Fatah (the old PLO). Gaza is under the control of Hamas which is the Muslim Brotherhood or Ikhwanul Muslimin. The Fatah and the Muslim Brotherhood are arch enemies. The last elections that were held in Palestine was 15 years ago in 2006. The Hamas won big in Gaza while the Fatah did better in the West Bank. Upon winning in Gaza, the Hamas immediately shot and killed over 40 Fatah leaders who were operating in Gaza. Overnite the Hamas wiped out Fatah from Gaza.
This time the 'spark' that appears to have ignited this latest round of rockets was a Court case involving Israeli settlements and the Israeli police entering the Al Aqsa Mosque to remove protesters. But that is what it appears to be on the surface. This round of rocket firing is actually pre-planned.
2. Zero Military Strategic Objectives
i. From a strategic point of view there is absolutely no military objective that can be achieved by Hamas shooting rockets into Israel. Even if Hamas shoots 10,000 rockets they will not be able to take any territory from Israel.
30% or more of the Hamas rockets fired thus far have fallen back inside Gaza - some killing Palestinians. A sizeable number fall in areas that do not cause damage. A few have caused damage and deaths while the rest of the Hamas rockets are taken down by the Israeli Iron Dome anti-missile system. So there is no military objective that is going to be achieved.
ii. The demand for electric power in Gaza is about 600 MW but Gaza only gets about 180 MW of electric power per day - of which 120 MW are supplied directly by Israel. A local diesel fired power station produces the balance 60 MW of electricity.
So what kind of military strategy is it to shoot thousands of rockets at Israel - when over 66% of Gaza's daily electricity supply is also supplied by Israel? What kind of military strategy is that?
Kalau tuan-tuan masih tak faham, imagine Singapore firing rockets into Johor when over 60% of Singapore's water supply comes from Johor. What kind of suicidal military strategy is that?
iii. Gaza's border crossing with Egypt at Rafaah has been closed and sealed tightly by the Egyptians for years now. Therefore Gaza's only land access to the outside world is through the Israeli border crossings at the Erez Crossing and the Karni Crossing. What type of military strategy is it to shoot rockets at Israel which is the only country that allows goods and people to enter Gaza by land? Even Egypt has closed its border crossing into Gaza.
iv. Hamas knows the Israelis will retaliate
But the retaliation from Israel is real and more importantly it is very well known to Hamas. When they decided to shoot almost 3,000 fireworks rockets (so far) into Israel the Hamas knew very well that the Israelis will retaliate. And they also know that the Israeli retaliation will be devastating. And certainly the 2.0 million ordinary people in Gaza come under immediate danger of suffering death and destruction. The ordinary people will be the ones who suffer.
Todate almost 200 Palestinians have lost their lives. In Israel eight people have also died. Hundreds have been injured in Gaza with a smaller number in Israel. These are mostly civilian lives.
So the military strategic objective of firing rockets into Israel is non-existent.
So why do it? Why put the 2.0 million people of Gaza in harm's way when there are no strategic objectives that can be achieved?
The answers are very simple. The answers lie outside Gaza.
- It is for the political survival of the Hamas leadership which resides in Qatar.
- It is for the political survival of the Muslim Brotherhood and of Erdogan in Turkey.
- It is for the political survival of the Ayatollahs in Iran.
- They all have a huge stake in Gaza.
- These players need Gaza more than Gaza needs them.
Hamas knows that this time despite shooting so many rockets Israel will not invade Gaza (has not happened thus far). So the people of Gaza will not suffer as much as they did in 2012 etc.
The Hamas leadership will get huge compensation in money from the Saudis, the Qataris, the Muslim Brotherhood's worldwide network etc.
The Aid for Palestine has already started. Sudah ada ostard wal retard yang mahu lelong keris dengan harga tinggi. Mesti dia pun tumpang untung kurang-kurangnya "cover costs" dsbnya?
Yesterday the Hamas boss Ismail Haniyeh who resides safely in Doha in Qatar has already called our PM Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin asking for money.
Now is the time for Hamas leaders to collect money.
2. Palestinian Islamic Jihad - another Iran proxy
Other than Hamas, of course the other new player in Gaza now is the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) which is also shooting rockets from Gaza. The PIJ is much closer to Iran.
"Palestine Islamic Jihad says that Iran provided the rockets that have been striking civilian targets by the scores in Israel, including schools, homes and vehicles. The group's official Ramez Al-Halabi says the “weapons we use to pound Tel Aviv, our weapons, our money, and our food are provided by Iran”
Before this the Sunni Hamas (Muslim Brotherhood) was not too keen on working with Shia Iran. So Iran sidestepped Hamas and 'funded' their own proxy Palestinian Islamic Jihad which in no time, with the help of Iranian money and weapons, was becoming a major player in Gaza.
Sensing that they had a real competitor, the Hamas also became more friendly with Iran - Shia or no Shia. The Iranians on the other hand are prepared to work with anyone who can shoot rockets into Israel. Iranian technicians are in Gaza helping Hamas build rockets.
The Iranians have their own reasons for supporting Hamas against Israel - the political survival of the Ayatollahs.
Hence the Hamas sent a couple of Iranian drones into Israel (Qasef 2 drones, see below) that were shot down by the Israeli air force. The same drones were supplied by Iran to the Houthis in Yemen.
3. The Muslim Brotherhood, Erdogan and Turkey
The Muslim Brotherhood (aka Hamas in Gaza) has suffered serious reversals in their fortunes after the collapse of the devastating Arab Spring. Tunisia, Egypt came under the Muslim Brotherhood after the Arab Spring in 2011. Algeria was also under their influence. But in no time at all they failed miserably (their religion is the problem - it does not work - how long will it take before they will realise this.) The Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt - the Jewel in the Crown and they also 'lost' Tunisia and Algeria.
Only Turkey (Erdogan) and Gaza are the two places in the world still controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood. But Erdogan in Turkey is losing popularity and has also lost major municipal elections in 2019 (Ankara, Istanbul). The Turkish economy is still very weak. Erdogan needs a boost to his popularity. Gaza may come in handy to boost Erdogan's image.
Although Turkey is not directly involved in shooting rockets from Gaza they provide substantial aid to Hamas - their Muslim Brotherhood cousins. It was reported that TWO of the THREE high rise buildings in Gaza that were destroyed by the Israelis a few days ago were built by Turkey.
4. General Elections in Palestine (West Bank and Gaza) in 2021 - CANCELLED again.
There have been no general elections in the West Bank and Gaza since 2006 - ie for 15 years. In the West Bank, Mahmud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority has lost the support of the people. Hamas is gaining popularity in the West Bank. If elections are held now, it is most likely that the Hamas can win both in Gaza and the West Bank. So Abbas is afraid of having elections. Abbas is 85 years old and not in great health. In his latest announcement Mahmud Abbas has announced that the General Elections will not be held - because of the rocket shooting going on between Gaza and Israel. (Mahmud Abbas pun pandai declare 'Emergency').
My view is this time the Israelis will "take out" the Hamas leadership. They will also degrade Hamas through other means. The Israelis certainly do not want the Hamas to win the general elections BOTH in the West Bank and Gaza. That will cause a bigger headache for them. Lets see what happens.
5. Cat and Mouse between Israel and Iran.
Last year the US killed the Iranian General Qasem Soleymani in a drone missile attack. Soleymani was the commander of the Iranian Islamic Republican Guard Corps or the IRGC. In retaliation the Iranians bombed a US Airforce base inside Iraq.
Then the Israelis killed one of Iran's top nuclear scientists in a super sophisticated 'drone machine gun' attack inside Iran. The Iranians have also retaliated by shooting at Israeli ships. Then a missile was fired from Syria that reached Dimona in southern Israel.
In the continuing tit-for-tat on May 8, 2021 there was a huge fire that broke out in the Iranian port of Bushehr which also house some Iranian nuclear facilities.
It is not impossible that the Israelis are behind this fire which has caused extensive damage to the port of Bushehr.
Five days later on May 13, 2021 both the Hamas and the Iranian created Palestinian Islamic Jihad started firing rockets from Gaza into Israel. Too close for a coincidence?
The general elections (its a joke) are due in Iran on June 18th 2021. Exactly one month from now.
A pro-IRGC candidate is favoured. Over the past years Iranian Supreme Leader-For-Life Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has realised that he can rule Iran quite by himself without listening too much to the elected president (Hassan Rouhani who is finishing his presidential term). Aiding and abetting the Supreme Ayatollah is the Islamic Republican Guard Corps or IRGC whose most powerful and popular leader was General Qasem Soleymani who was killed by the Americans. He has since been replaced by one General Ismail Ghani or something. The IRGC reports directly to the Supreme Ayatollah. They do not report to the elected president - who is just a puppet.
The Iranian IRGC is not only more powerful than the Iranian Army but they have a dominating influence on Iranian domestic and foreign policy making, especially Iranian foreign policy. So the unelected Supreme-Leader-For-Life Ayatollah Khamenei and his pet poodle the IRGC are the real dominant power centers in Iran. With great power come great expense accounts.
There is a conspiracy theory that the late General Qasem Soleymani (below) was 'compromised' by his own Iranian 'friends'.
All his mobile phone numbers were known to the Israeli Mossad which was tracking his detailed movements. Just before he was killed the Mossad gave the General's mobile phone numbers to the Americans who were able to track him. It is reported that on the day he was killed the General changed his mobile phone three times - to evade detection. Still the Mossad and hence the Americans knew of the phone numbers and sent a drone to kill him.
General Qasem Soleymani was getting to be too popular and too powerful inside Iran. As commander of the IRGC he was deciding Iran policy in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and in Palestine without referring to Iranian Foreign Minister Javed Zarif or the President Hassan Rouhani. He reported directly to unelected Supreme-Leader-For-Life Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Presently there is a huge controversy in Iran over some leaked audio tapes where the Iranian Foreign Minister Javed Zarif can be heard criticising General Qasem Suleymani for side stepping the President and the Foreign Ministry.
So someone inside Iran pulled the plug on the General. He was eliminated.
It is likely that a pro-IRGC candidate (will also be endorsed by the Supreme Ayatollah) for the post of Iranian president in the elections on June 18th 2021.
Predictably this present round of 'rocket shooting' in Gaza is now being widely played up in all Iranian media - which makes the IRGC look like saviours of Al-Quds again. Al-Quds refers Jerusalem but it actually points at the Al Aqsa Mosque.
So the situation in the Middle East is always complicated. You have to keep track of exactly who is stabbing whose back.
There is one more outfit at work in Lebanon ie Hezbollah. That will be for another day. Suffice to say that Hezbollah is of absolutely ZERO strategic and military value to anyone - including themselves. Absolutely zero. Till then
