http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/813030--thailand-s-problems-far-from-being-resolved?bn=1
Thailand’s problems far from being resolved
Will the blood of ‘martyrs’ fuel further violence?
Published On Fri May 21 2010
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A Thai army soldier patrols at Thailand's biggest shopping mall, Central World, after it was set fire by anti-government protesters following an army assault on a protest site in downtown Bangkok. (May 21, 2010)
MANISH SWARUP/AP
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By
Bill Schiller Asia Bureau
BANGKOK—Using brute force, the Thai government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejiajiva showed the world what it could do this week.
It could crush a popular protest; lock up a movement’s leaders; and douse the flames of three dozen fires that burned down some of Bangkok’s brightest parts.
But as it turns out, that was the easy part.
Now comes the hard part, analysts say: can it mend the capital — and by extension, the country — back together?
Many doubt it.
“There is a persistent fantasy on the part of Thailand’s elite establishment, that if you can take out the ringleaders, everything will disappear,” says Duncan McCargo, professor of south-east Asian politics at the University of Leeds.
But the Abhisit government’s problems aren’t likely to vanish, he says.
The Red Shirts movement, which paralyzed Bangkok for more than two months with protests demanding fresh elections, is here to stay.
It is well organized, well-funded, has spread like wildfire over the past year and — most crucially — Thailand’s political landscape has not changed.
Societal grievances, particularly the gap between rich and poor, have gone unaddressed.
There’s a saying in Thailand that crystallizes the unfairness in day-to-day life: “Only the poor and stupid go to jail.”
Says McCargo, “Rifts in Thai society still exist.”
But there are other reasons too, to fear the future of Thailand, say observers.
After a bloody week in which dozens of Red Shirt supporters died, some analysts say the movement now has a fresh supply of martyrs — a strong motive for vengeance.
McCargo says he fears, “a new phase of random violence.”
Prospects for it were heightened last week by the assassination of Maj.-Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol, also known as Saleh Daeng, who had defected to the Red Shirts.
A folk hero with a national following, his death by a sniper’s bullet to the head, enraged followers including many paramilitary soldiers under his command.
They can be expected to continue to throw their support – and guns – behind the Red movement.
Hence, to avoid more mayhem, a real political settlement must emerge soon – one that might include a power-sharing arrangement, says McCargo.
Simply calling new elections won’t do, he says.
One short year ago many thought the Red Shirts’ movement was dead after the Abhisit government put down an earlier revolt in April 2009.
But then, last year, a completely reorganized version of the Red Shirts movement emerged from the ashes.
It had a well-defined leadership, a formal membership system, a series of detailed workshops on democracy that toured the country, and it started to assemble its own media outlets to make sure it got its political message across.
Sometimes the democracy workshops were televised to vast areas to bring in huge audiences.
Those workshops rattled the government and with good reason: about 20,000 attended actual classes according to Red Shirt officials who spoke to the
Star this week. Countless thousands more watched on television.
That kind of organization helped poor, common people to better articulate their demands.
But a government adviser told the
Star this week that citizens weren’t learning about democratic ideals, but straight propaganda from former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, he said.
But the training session were key in the Red revival.
Two analysts who noted the rebirth of the Red Shirts early were Canadians Nelson Rand and Chandler Vandergrift. They published a trenchant analysis earlier this year on the resurrection of the movement and the likelihood of coming clashes.
They noted that the movement would seek a “decisive” mass rally in 2010 in Bangkok. And if that rally were to be put down violently by the government, they wrote, an armed revolt could spread to the countryside.
Last year credible reports emerged of large arms shipments coming into the country.
The authors noted that leaders of the Red Shirts – also known as the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship – denied planning an “armed struggle.” But they acknowledged that the movement had “radical elements” within UDD’s broad tent who could use violence.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who supports the Red Shirts, has frequently warned of violence.
Thaksin, who was ousted in a military coup 2006, even sent a Twitter message to his followers at the beginning of this year, saying he had recently gone to a fortune teller and been informed that 2010 would be a year of violence.
Such predictions have a way of becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.
But worryingly, Thaksin again warned this week that no one should be surprised if violent and persistent urban warfare breaks out across Thailand in the aftermath of Wednesday’s bloody crackdown.
And yet it’s likely not Thaksin’s words that will be remembered by those who massed daily to hear speeches from the stage at the main protest site.
It’s more likely those of Nattawut Saikua, of the leaders now jailed.
Such speeches won’t fuel violence, but they’re certain to inspire perseverance among the common people. One speech now circulating on the Internet touched a chord with Thailand’s downtrodden and voiceless.
“We are the salt of the earth,” he said. “We are the people without privilege.”
Says McCargo, “The support base is still there. The sentiments are still there. And the issues and motivations have not changed.”
