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Swine Flu Travels from US to Poland as 1,893 Confirmed Ill

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Swine Flu Travels from US to Poland as 1,893 Confirmed Ill
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By Tom Randall

May 7 (Bloomberg) -- A 58-year-old Polish woman was hospitalized with swine flu after returning home from a trip to New York, bringing the number of influenza cases worldwide to 1,893 in 24 countries. In two weeks, swine flu jumped from isolated reports in the U.S. and Mexico to a widening circle of infections in Central America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Asia and New Zealand and prompted quarantines to limit the outbreak. Hong Kong, which confirmed its first case of swine flu on May 1, and China are today releasing some people who were isolated after they were found to be on the same flight as the patient.

The World Health Organization, on the brink of declaring a pandemic, said a panel will meet May 14 to decide whether vaccine makers should begin producing hundreds of millions of doses of a separate swine flu shot. The virus, with symptoms similar to seasonal flu, is a new strain that’s dashing across a world population with little natural immunity, the WHO said.
“We are very early in the epidemic,” Marie-Paule Kieny, director of WHO’s initiative on vaccine research, said yesterday at a news conference in Geneva. “We have recommended for all manufacturers to put everything into place to be able to start manufacturing the vaccines.” The Polish woman, that country’s first confirmed swine flu case, is recovering and the passengers on her May 2 flight from New York to Warsaw are being monitored for symptoms, Pawel Wierdak, a spokesman for the Polish mission to the United Nations in New York, said yesterday in an interview.

World Impact
Swine flu may affect at least one-third of the world’s 6 billion population within the next year, Keiji Fukuda, the WHO’s assistant director-general of health, security and environment, said in a video broadcast from Geneva to a conference of Asian ministers in Bangkok today. “Even if the illnesses appear relatively mild at the individual level, the global population level adds up to enormous numbers,” Fukuda said. Disease trackers are monitoring 81 cases in Spain and 27 in the U.K. to determine whether the virus formally called H1N1 has established itself outside North America. Such a finding would prompt the WHO to declare a pandemic, the first since 1968, the agency said. The WHO panel next week will determine whether to go ahead with production of a swine flu shot and may later ask companies to stop making seasonal flu vaccines to free up manufacturing capacity, Kieny said.

U.S. Cases
In the U.S., an outbreak in Illinois led to a jump in the number of confirmed cases to at least 642, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said yesterday on its Web site. The cases include two U.S. deaths and may represent a fraction of those infected, officials said. Illinois health officials reported 227 cases, not all of which were included in the CDC’s most recent tally, and said most of the jump is attributable to the state’s new testing capability. Before this week, only the CDC lab in Atlanta could definitively identify U.S. cases of swine flu. Test kits were delivered May 5 to laboratories in all 50 states.

“I wish I could predict what we’re going to see in the fall, because that would make it very easy to make the kinds of decisions we’re going to need to make as a nation over the next couple of months,” Richard Besser, acting chief of the CDC, said yesterday. “We could see the current strain fizzle out and never come back again. We could see it mutate and change and come back in a more severe form. What we need to do is make sure we’re prepared.” Countries that haven’t seen cases should prepare for outbreaks, Besser said. China, Hong Kong Quarantines

Hong Kong has isolated 386 people under a seven-day quarantine imposed after they had contact with a 25-year-old man who flew in from Mexico via Shanghai and was tested positive for swine flu. The city released 28 people with no swine flu-like symptoms from the Lady MacLehose Holiday Village, Thomas Tsang, controller at Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection, said today.China started allowing about 110 passengers on the same flight as the Mexican man to leave their hotels today after holding them under quarantine for seven days, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing some of the people.South Korea confirmed its third case of swine flu today.

Treatment Shots
WHO determined that a swine flu shot would have to be made in separate plants from the seasonal flu version. The swine flu vaccine may also require a follow-up booster shot to be effective because it is an entirely new strain, Kieny said. The single-shot seasonal flu vaccine itself acts as a booster, reinforcing natural antibodies from previous flu exposures, health authorities said.

Data so far suggest that the virus affects youth more than seasonal influenza, and that younger patients are entering hospitals, Besser said. Few with swine flu are older than 60, and the median age is 16. It’s possible that older people have greater immunity or that younger people spread the disease on spring break vacation trips to Mexico, he said. The CDC reversed U.S. school-closure recommendations that shut 468,000 students out of classes this week, saying schools should reopen and sick children should stay home. About 103,000 students returned to school yesterday, and it will take several days for most schools to reopen, the U.S. Education Department said.

Milder Than Thought
The virus is milder than originally thought and has already rooted itself in communities across the country, making containment impossible, Besser said, explaining the school policy reversal. Even if symptoms remain mild, the ease with which the new virus spreads makes it a threat, he said.
The three main seasonal flu strains -- H3N2, another form of H1N1, and type B -- cause 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year globally, according to the WHO. The new flu’s symptoms are similar: aches, coughing and fever.
Mexico City’s government will reduce its emergency alert level for swine flu today to “yellow,” or medium alert, from “orange,” or elevated warning, said Carolina Pavon, a spokeswoman for the city. The change could allow businesses such as bars, gymnasiums and theaters to reopen under the city’s sanitary guidelines.

Businesses Reopen
Restaurants in Mexico City and businesses and government offices in most areas of the country were allowed to reopen yesterday. Universities and high schools can resume today. Elementary schools will start May 11.
In addition to the North American countries and Poland, swine flu has been confirmed in Austria, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, El Salvador, France, Germany, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K. The virulence of the swine flu may reveal itself when the Southern Hemisphere faces its influenza season beginning this month through September, Besser said. Scientists will watch the virus to see whether it becomes the dominant flu strain or mutates into a deadlier illness. Sanofi-Aventis SA of Paris, Baxter International Inc. of Deerfield, Illinois, and GlaxoSmithKline Plc of London are talking with world health authorities about producing shots, the agency said. Mexico’s Health Minister Jose Cordova said the WHO sent a specialist to Mexico yesterday to begin developing a vaccine.

Vaccines Licensed
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration yesterday licensed Sanofi’s new vaccine plant in Swiftwater, Pennsylvania, the agency and the company said in separate statements. Sanofi said the new plant can produce 100 million doses of seasonal flu vaccine when it is operating at full capacity and the company’s Sanofi-Pasteur unit can produce another 50 million doses at its older Swiftwater facility. “With the licensure of this new influenza vaccine production facility, Sanofi-Pasteur now has additional flexibility to produce seasonal influenza vaccine and to respond to requests from public health authorities to develop an A (H1N1) vaccine,” said Wayne Pisano, president and chief executive officer of Sanofi-Pasteur, in the statement. Authorities advised hand washing, hygiene and staying home if sick as the most effective ways to control the outbreak. The WHO and CDC said closing borders or killing animals are costly steps that wouldn’t slow the spread of flu. To contact the reporter on this story: Tom Randall in New York at [email protected]



 
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