Structural unemployment crisis stalking U.S. economy

[Watchman]

Structural unemployment crisis stalking U.S. economy
Tue Oct 6, 2009 3:07pm EDT

By Lucia Mutikani - Analysis

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Millions of American job-hunters risk permanent unemployment as industries undergo radical change and some skills become irrelevant in the wake of the worst U.S. economic recession in 70 years.

There are troubling signs that unemployment in the United States is taking on a structural dimension, though the extent of it may not become clear until the severe downturn that started in December 2007 finally ends, analysts said.

Government data last Friday showed that in September, 5.4 million people had been out of work for over 27 weeks. That was up from 5 million in August and represented a startlingly large 35.6 percent of the total of unemployed Americans.

In addition, the number of those who believed they had permanently lost their jobs soared to 8.5 million from 8.1 million in August, about 54.3 percent of the jobless total.

"The figures reflect the fact that some of the jobs lost are probably lost for good and highlight that unemployment is rising more because of structural changes in the economy than in past recessions," said Tony Crescenzi, strategist and portfolio manager at Pimco in Newport Beach, California.

People staying out of work for a long time tend to lose their skills and become less attractive as workers compared to people who have been unemployed for a shorter period of time.

According to Charles Kramer, the International Monetary Fund's mission chief to the United States, such people are more likely to grow discouraged and leave the labor force entirely.

That hurts not only them, but also the broader economy. The costs of maintaining unemployment programs could also add to the government's burden as it tries to ratchet down a record $1.8 trillion budget deficit.

"They will not be counted in the employment statistics; there will be a loss, in some sense, of productive capacity for the economy," Kramer told Reuters.

Analysts noted that in previous recessions the average duration of unemployment never exceeded 26 weeks. It exceeded that level last month. Since the start of the current recession, 7.2 million people have lost their jobs.

In September, a total of 15.1 million people were on the jobless rolls, 9.8 percent of the labor force, and the White House and private forecasters believe it could go higher in coming months.

STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT A WORRY

"That does make one to wonder about long-term unemployment, what you might call structural unemployment," said Heather Boushey, senior economist at the Center for American Progress.

"I think it's too soon to tell because we are in the middle of a recession ... but I do think it is a serious concern."

The current recession is now the longest since the 1930s and was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the ensuing global credit crisis.